AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[penguinface]

I think there are plenty of people, though, who are willing to abandon their theories when new evidence seems to refute them. I know I certainly have in the past several days...

Totally agree that there’d be people who would change their minds, but it’s not LE’s job to change people’s minds about online theories, it’s to focus on the investigation. I just can’t see them addressing such things publicly in a press conference unless they thought it was actually relevant to their case to do so.

JMO

 

[SMK777]

Totally agree that there’d be people who would change their minds, but it’s not LE’s job to change people’s minds about online theories, it’s to focus on the investigation. I just can’t see them addressing online theories publicly in a press conference unless they thought it was actually relevant to their case to do so.

JMO

Agreed.

 

[HerNameWasBuffy]

I like your analysis. So this could imply that the person has some telecoms/I.T. expertise possibly, or can one glean this off the internet?

Anyone familiar with IT would know the data is recoverable until overwritten. If this was his thinking it indicates he is less familiar with how these are networked than many lay people, not more.

 

[Fargo]

The bizarre part of his story to me is that he says the police were following the car that his wife was driving. His wife pulled over the car and he got out of the passenger side before the police ever turned on their lights? Who does that?

CP is very clearly lying about this as he's clearly in the driver's seat when they pull him over. Lying very, very well. I imagine he lied that his wife was driving because she's probably the DoorDasher, but if he's lying so easily about this what else is he lying about? Timestamp: 00:38.

 

[captdj]

Yes, if they had ever touched the tape with their bare hands, it could be and possibly traced. Spray paint seems much easier, and you just take it with you. Not sure if you are familiar with the Idaho case but Kohberger apparently had touched the knife sheath at some point in a very small spot and they were able to get his DNA from that. I am sure he did not intend to leave that at the scene but may have forgotten or did not even realize he had touched it with his bare hands.

Yes and it kinda looks like a roll of duct tape on his left wrist. Think he wasnt prepared to see that camera active I'm.guessing more transfer evidence so he removes it completely . I don't have that exact doorbell camera but since it was battery...my battery ones are easier to remove from the base cause of battery changes and the wired ones more difficult (if no wifi blocker is used.)

 

[meade]

I think this is a good theory and the only one that makes much sense to me for why the perp bothered to pick the flowers out of the ground and hold them up against the camera. It's a poor strategy for obstructing the camera view and I don't think would really fool anyone. It's interesting the perp did not have a better strategy for dealing with the Nest camera from the get-go. Like shaving cream for instance.

Maybe perp had info the camera subscription was off, but didn't account for the fact that someone could still watch the live feed if they got an alert. Is there anything on the camera that indicates it is active? A red light? A shutter movement? Something that would alert the perp that the camera is, indeed, on?

 

[Idreamofgenie]

CP is very clearly lying about this as he's clearly in the driver's seat when they pull him over. Lying very, very well. I imagine he lied that his wife was driving because she's probably the DoorDasher, but if he's lying so easily about this what else is he lying about? Timestamp: 00:38.

And I’m sorry to bring this up in the case he’s truly innocent, but the first time I saw him on camera I thought his head was the exact shape of the perp in the mask. MOO

 

[BigCityAccountant]

s pre meditated to some degree. This pers

They are also asking neighbors what cars they drive and specifically asking about a truck.

Nancy Guthrie’s neighbors asked to hand over security footage from two specific dates

Savannah Guthrie’s 84-year-old mom was last seen on the evening of Jan. 31 and was subsequently abducted from her Tucson, Ariz., residence.

pagesix.com

My guess is that have surveillance and this is trying to rule out vehicles they see on surveillance---so they are not chasing their tail. An effort to rule out the ones they can, leaving the ones they cannot as potential persons of interest. Of course, JMO.

 

[meade]

CP is very clearly lying about this as he's clearly in the driver's seat when they pull him over. Lying very, very well. I imagine he lied that his wife was driving because she's probably the DoorDasher, but if he's lying so easily about this what else is he lying about? Timestamp: 00:38.

Something about this guy is off. His body language is too extra. Too exaggerated.

 

[Trino]

CNN 02/12/26 Steve Moore, a retired FBI supervisory special agent, quote: “What this strikes me as is somebody who doesn’t know what he doesn’t know,” Moore said.

What this strikes me is the FBI does not know what they don't know.

 

[meade]

And I’m sorry to bring this up in the case he’s truly innocent, but the first time I saw him on camera I thought his head was the exact shape of the perp in the mask. MOO

For me, the mouth matches.

 

[PCHS]

It’s interesting because since 1972 I have always had a security system (burglar alarm) where I lived. It’s set at night and if someone breaks in, it blasts sirens and calls the police. I wonder if in this area of AZ residents don’t use security systems?

I think ime that for some people/families tend to do it more than others even those not necessarily wealthy. In my circle I have known some people who everyone in their family has an alarm setting in their home. It wasn't a thing for anyone in my family and I honestly wish my parents would as they get older and do have people come to do wok on the home

 

[kspoon45]

I'm assuming you are speaking about this:

Authorities are asking residents near Nancy Guthrie’s home to check their security camera footage from two days in January as they piece together “a new timeline” in the case, according an alert posted on the Neighbor App by Ring.

Investigators are looking for footage from:

January 11 between 9 p.m. and midnight, more than two weeks before the 84-year-old went missing, and January 31 between 9:30 p.m. and 11 p.m., flagging a suspicious vehicle in the area around 10 a.m., according to the alert.

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/nancy-guthrie-savannah-missing-mom-02-12-26

Just noting for what it's worth that these are both weekend nights.

Did NG routinely go to AGs on Saturday nights? She got in around 9pm the night she went missing so it seems possible that someone was aware of her routine.

MOO.

 

[SMK777]

Just noting for what it's worth that these are both weekend nights.

Did NG routinely go to AGs on Saturday nights? She got in around 9pm the night she went missing so it seems possible that someone was aware of her routine.

MOO.

I hadn't thought about a routine. Good point.

 

[cherryleaf]

Camera tampering at least shows us that this person had an awareness of consequences. This person expected the crime to occur indicating it was pre meditated to some degree. This person didn’t knock or smash blindly at things at the door or wander around. They appear to go straight to surveillance atop the door ( and apparently other areas of the property so that points to someone with at least some familiarly of the home. Disabling the camera took time and increased risk so this person was either highly confident of low traffic and or knew she was alone. This person is displaying at least some behaviors of tech knowledge and avoiding detection. They’re somewhat comfortable moving on foot in the dark, also they have at least some impulse control because they didn’t appear to get too flustered when disabling that camera.


To me this indicates a couple of things. There’s planned concealment with the gloves and mask specifically, night time approach to further conceal themselves, forensic awareness( gloves), disabling the cameras. This person(s) totally planned this and 100 percent an intentional crime took place. Nothing about this screams random intruder to me. MOO

Replying to my own post here because I had another thought about this masked individual. I just noticed after watching the video multiple times this person does not appear to squint their eyes when attempting to disable that camera in the dark, with shadows from the moon or
Flashlight…so it implies to me that this person could potentially be younger, mid 20s/early 30s or have contacts in. Their vision appears to be really good.

 

[tlcya]

CP is very clearly lying about this as he's clearly in the driver's seat when they pull him over. Lying very, very well. I imagine he lied that his wife was driving because she's probably the DoorDasher, but if he's lying so easily about this what else is he lying about? Timestamp: 00:38.

If this guy was on their radar causing them to get a search warrant for his home, IMO it is likely authorities were following both he AND his wife in their separate vehicles prior to his being pulled over

 

[K9Enzo]

Totally agree that there’d be people who would change their minds, but it’s not LE’s job to change people’s minds about online theories, it’s to focus on the investigation. I just can’t see them addressing online theories publicly in a press conference unless they thought it was actually relevant to their case to do so.

JMO

Right on @penguinface

LE does not want theories from the public. They have established tip lines asking for information from specific date ranges, in specific areas, observed first hand suspicious activity in the targeted areas, person(s) that stand out to them, etc. And the most crucial IMO do you recognize this person Yes (we want to know) or No (thanks for looking)? Not using AI tools on the suspect and submit those as tips and so on. Do you know this person, do you recognize anything they are wearing? Yes or No. IMO

NANCY GUTHRIE | Federal Bureau of Investigation

January 31, 2026 Tucson, Arizona

www.fbi.gov

 

[wibbleflea]

They are also asking neighbors what cars they drive and specifically asking about a truck.

That we haven’t had a description of the perp’s vehicle yet is one of the strangest things about this investigation so far.

I know that neighbours’ cameras wouldn’t get usable images from the road in an area without streetlights, because the houses are set back from the road and, in low light, you’d get nothing usable. But why no images from nearby cameras on larger roads? I can’t imagine too much traffic at 1-2 am.

Does it mean NG wasn’t taken far from her house?

 

[shonyakay]

IIRC the first ransom message was received by TMZ on the Monday, and, purely through SG being who she is, the story went national as soon as the disappearance was announced on the Monday. Onoy my opinion but I think if you were going to kidnap someone for ransom, you’d wait until the story broke before making the first ransom demand. You’re wanting to instil terror, increase the likelihood the family will pay you through fewr of what you’ll do to their loved one.

A day of them not knowing a thing about what has happened to their relative could be important in amping up that fear.. if the first the family knew of NG being missing was from a ransom note rather than naturally finding out she’s gone themselves, I think it changes the dynamic. If there’s an element of ego to the perps, I think you’d also want both the initial shock of the disappearwnce and then a later ransom demand coming in to be two separate stories in their own right, which you wouldn’t get if you sent a ransom demand on the Sunday morning straight after the kidnap, before NG’s disapearance was diacovered.

JMO

The ransom letter was sent only after the story went national.

A ransom letter was sent to two Arizona stations on Monday evening.

Tuesday is when TMZ received it.

 

[Eli9]

Just joining this morning and on first cup of coffee. Turned on Fox and they are showing a white tent at the doorway of NG's house. I don't have twitter but I bet there is a pic out there.