AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[samiam33]

I have mixed feelings about this sketch.

Obviously, Lois Gibson is amazing, and has an preternatural ability to suss out the human face from almost nothing. She stated she saw the suspect as mid-30s to early 40s. But I feel like the video suspect is younger than portrayed in her sketch, maybe more 20s to early 30s.

Let me blithely contradict someone with decades of expertise here with my weak reasoning.

His movements seem fairly fluid and only slightly stiff, like someone who sits a lot but is young enough to not yet be so tight from the inactivity. Maybe a round of golf here and there.

Compare this to the footage of Michael McKee from the Tepe murder case. I could see he walked like a 35-45 year old (getting stiffer, foot splayed out - like looking in the mirror, minus the murder part).

We don't know if LE has the suspect's DNA. But if they do, and he's not in CODIS, he has not committed a felony in the U.S., and I believe he's a U.S. citizen. It rare to go from no serious criminal history to celebrity kidnapper without a few legal bumps along the way in 4 to 5 decades of life. And that's why I think he younger - and just ramping up.

Since he's not received the money, he's clearly not a criminal mastermind, but he could be a cybercrime wonk. Unfortunately, for him, the cybercrime smarts mean nothing if he wasn't savvy enough to expect to prove evidence of life. This points to the overconfidence of youth and failure to understand other people's needs and desires.

Now, let me make some more wild assumptions based on no facts, knowledge, or expertise whatsoever.

I think the suspect has a white collar job, maybe in tech, and doesn't live far from Nancy. He's from a wealthy family but is a loner. He may have some juvenile records (maybe peeping tom, harassment, stalking), but nothing major since becoming an adult.

He's not "a gun person" based on the holster positioning, or wants us to believe that. Either way, I think he googled his way to "Mexican carry" (which I know it is not; it's appendix carry) to hint at gang or cartel involvement as a racist disguise of sorts. It was entirely for show, but not to scare Nancy in her dark house, who couldn't see it, but for the camera.

I think he could be wearing a bit of makeup, maybe some eye liner, maybe some foundation, maybe fake facial hair.

Since he's a tech guy, he'd know that he'd eventually appear on video salvaged from the Nest backend. But he'd also know it'd take some legal legwork to recover it, which made the discovery feel authentic and like LE has the upper hand. But his little lantana show for the camera was planned. He's confident he won't be identified by video as he feels well out of LE's scope - he ain't no DoorDasher.

I don't think Nancy is alive. I believe she was intentionally attacked and killed the night she disappeared, and the guy who did it is truly sick, but you wouldn't know it if you met him. The suspect will cut his losses on the ransom before risking getting caught. He doesn't need the money. He just likes inflicting maximum pain. However, he does like the attention the spectacle has caused, and may wish to keep that going.

End of drivel.

I agree with much of what you said, and I also think he moved like a younger person, but not a very active person. I do not think he has a white collar job, and perhaps not any "typical" job. I agree that he will probably cut his losses rather than get caught. He may have already gotten most of what he wanted with all the attention and by outsmarting LE for this long.

 

[Tate123]

I want to make a comment that is MY option only. Mods, feel free to delete if you think i am out of line.

When I saw the statement from the sheriff saying Nancy might not be found “for years”it made my blood boil. Nancy doesn’t have years!!!

Some people are just insane. i mean, who would say that? if i came up missing at my age and i thought the sheriff said that about me and then said he was exhausted I would think he has given up. If I could do so right now, I would grab him by the ear and make him squeal. The nerve of that man!

It made me upset as well. Especially knowing her children would hear it. Everyone is suffering enough.

 

[Donswife48]

I want to make a comment that is MY option only. Mods, feel free to delete if you think i am out of line.

When I saw the statement from the sheriff saying Nancy might not be found “for years”it made my blood boil. Nancy doesn’t have years!!!

Some people are just insane. i mean, who would say that? if i came up missing at my age and i thought the sheriff said that about me and then said he was exhausted I would think he has given up. If I could do so right now, I would grab him by the ear and make him squeal. The nerve of that man!

Does anyone know if there is someone in the dept who can take charge of the sheriff's duties. I'm concerned that if he feels exhausted, he is not fully able to look at clues and evidence. JMO

 

[jbennett]

I don't have a pool. Could the pool cleaner vacuumed the bottom of the pool for evidence?

JMO as I don't know.

I do have a pool and this is the first place my mind went when I saw them cleaning the pool.

 

[stmichael]

I think that’s incorrect based on their source and how I read the story and also how I have them set up for 90yo mother. They said they were strategically positioned pointing in a way that they would know if she fell - basic summary. You don’t set them up so they go off every time someone is walking around. I found that out the hard way. And they’re not ring cameras that I have. They’re more directed that I can also manually rotate and it’s also a narrower frame of picture - not the whole room.

CCTV systems of all brands (at all levels) also record all motion even if you don't have an push alert to your phone configured (I am very familiar with 4K POE CCTV). I highly doubt hey just had a live system, they'd want to go back and see any falls or issues they likely would have missed if needed. I don't know if they had PTZ cams (pan-tilt-zoom) that rotate manually, but those too record motion alerts to a cloud storage w/o alerts (so they don't have to get home and go through hours of footage to check on their mom if she was in this or that room). If anyone installed the system it would surely be configured this way especially for the purpose of checking on an old lady. Most systems are defaulted this way and it makes no sense to neuter it to just a "live" viewing passive system.

 

[joe jones]

Why on earth would a homeless person with no connection to Nancy risk moving her body ?

IMO to move her he had to have a car, with that bulky backpack and NG who couldn't walk very far he would have struggled to carry her any distance, even getting her to a car parked nearby wouldn't have been easy,

 

[SMK777]

WTAH???

https://twitter.com/x/status/2022814782705820000

 

[VioletBoxcar]

Local news KOLD 13 posted an update about 20 mins ago stating that FBI

Why on earth would a homeless person with no connection to Nancy risk moving her body ?

the homeless people here are not going through all that trouble. They usually steal bikes, tools and whatever they can from unlocked cars.

 

[DizzyB]

Do we know that when A got the call from NG’s friend that she didn’t check the cameras then not seeing NG, or worst seeing something disturbing instead of her mom, race to the home after a minute of looking around there in increasing panic called 911?

My mom did not like wearing the alert necklace. They are kind of long.

But most of all she was very dressy to her last day and social so she wasn’t going to wear the old lady thing.

It’s the cameras that let them keep their independence and live alone in a big house like that, imo.

Once they have one close call one way or another and scare themselves they are more willing to be checked on.

If they are by themselves in a big house with lots of outdoor seating and a pool it seems prudent to have the cameras.

Simple falls can turn serious if the elderly get stuck on the floor for a long time.

With the guest house there was room in the future for live in help. But maybe she wasn’t there just yet.

All imo

We had cameras set up in an elderly relative’s home, but only viewed the feed when we had a concern. Even though he was old, it felt like an invasion of privacy. Alerts were shut off because they would have been constant. I could see that being the case here. When family got the call, they may have checked the cameras and did not see Nancy, and raced over.

 

[GatorFL]

Multiple cameras inside the house? Is that usual?

Very common with the elderly. I work with the elderly and often suggest Nest cameras to families in cases where an elderly person refuses a life alert type fob. Probably more cameras than fobs in our patient census.

 

[SaraSmile]

DBM

 

[nycpizzaparty]

To me, it seemed passive-agressive. He said she might be found, 'in one hour, or weeks, months, or years."

As if he wanted to upset people without doing so openly. Passive-agressive.

There's nothing worse than an incompetent person with a fragile ego and control issues to hold everyone else hostage for the sake of preserving their own delusions of self.

 

[Momtoapug]

<modnote: I can't tell what is being referred to here>

IYO. The article did not say she never got the mail herself. It mentioned just ONE instance where are friend helped her. It doesn’t even specify how the friend helped. People often times “help” others without their consent. We have no clue if NG even needed the help, it says NG insisted on getting the mail. I take that to mean that the friend insisted on helping. MOO
Quote from your article
“ Her toughness has always surfaced in difficult moments, like when her husband died suddenly in 1988, or when budget cuts threatened a vital public health service at the university where she worked, or even two days before her disappearance, when she insisted on walking to the end of her gravel driveway to get the mail, even if a friend had to help.”

 

[whitelilac]

something that I find odd is it seems few of the homes I have seen on maps in the area have fences or gates, don't coyotes and other wild animals live in the area?

We have coyotes here...it's an issue with pets etc. Coyotes have the ability to get over a 7 to 8 ft high fence or wall. Lots of cases here.

 

[EyeCandy]

thank you .. looks about the same difference. Perhaps if the friends vehicle was parked in the garage driveway they did travel thru the garage. I was simply thinking since the article says they were playing games 2 days before she went missing, I in my brain figured the friend who was playing with her maybe walked her to the mailbox out the front door.
Upon second thought, she could have also gone out the garage door, as the friend was leaving perhaps, the friend saying hey I will help you get the mail while we are here ... sounds doable

View attachment 645057
I drew red lines to show the path both from the front door or the garage to the mailbox. Google Maps

This likely all doesn’t make any difference, but just moonk you ..

 

[warp3dwing]

I love reading others thoughts and reasoning. Good post.

Thanks! At this stage, I’m just trying to think the polar opposite of what it looks like, since it appears this case was a tougher to crack than first though. Hopefully, I’m wrong about that, and this is the calm before the storm.

I also don’t think the suspect ever planned to withdraw/move bitcoin, either now or before. I think he’s just let it sit there and fester, as a total troll would do.

 

[Absoluterubbish]

WTAH???

https://twitter.com/x/status/2022814782705820000

They likely don’t have enough to arrest yet but would have taken his DNA for testing as well as his car which we saw

 

[su5ie]

Another thing of note is , in the previously posted video of the perp heading into the porch to take the camera . He looks down to gauge where the step is . Remember it is pitch black but yet he seems to know at the very least its probable position .

So imo he has been at the house before and probably on more than one occasion jmo

 

[SlimPickens]

This is not necessarily true. FBI can assist locals with violent crime cases when asked, and they can use federal authority when doing so. It’s still a local investigation run by locals with state charges for violation of state crimes, but FBI can run their stuff through fed courts in as much as they’re assisting the investigation.

JMO

The FBI cannot obtain a federal warrant for a crime that pertains only to a state criminal statute/matter, and by definition if a federal criminal statute has been violated it supersedes a similar state one. That the FBI was able to obtain a federal warrant regarding this case is prima facie evidence that necessary components exist within this crime to make it a federal crime. Which then makes the FBI the primary investigators of this crime.

JMO.

 

[Napoli]

I don’t know. Your theory’s motive is money? That supposed ransom came much later and it didn’t make sense. Ransoms are delivered immediately to the family. They tell them not to contact authorities or they’ll hurt their loved one. Who sends a ransom to the media immediately alerting authorities? On top of that, who writes that you’ll never hear from them, the perp or perps, again?

If this was a gang initiation, you don’t take a body with you.

Did they ever confirm that nothing was stolen from the house? Have they ruled out robbery?

Correct me if I am wrong. She was found missing by her family on Sunday FEBRUARY 1. Ransom note came in on the morning of FEBRUARY 3 to TMZ and a couple of other news outlets that were local. Perp was waiting for news to break. Attention was desired. IMO. he sure got it. SG had a stalker who wanted her attention. Involving TMZ, which is an entertainment outlet, just further cements it for me. JMO and i am sticking to it!