AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[flakesofsnow]

Did you already discuss the book that SG released in feb24 where she talks about a kidnapping game her aunt used to play with her and her sister?

 

[BellaToothless]

[My question re: this is.... Has this person EVER in the past shown interest and worry of his neighbor to have her checked on? Why on THIS day?]

IMO of course, and just random thoughts.... Just seems strange to me

As a person who also has a licensed duty to warn I can tell you that it would not be uncommon for LE to bring APS in on the 1st requested welfare check. It does appear that very initially into this event LE may have considered it an elderly person with dementia wandering etc due to several statements by family that NG was sharp as a tack. IMO. These have been posted much earlier in this thread

 

[BigCityAccountant]

View attachment 646057

You know CeCe Moore was just chomping at the bit to get on this case!

GO CeCe, GO!

I believe it's coming soon for the perp!

 

[maskedwoman]

OK, the "no longer talking about the ransom messages" thing is odd to me.

I'm glad to see it finally occurred to him, or was explained to him, that talking about everyone one of those emails could change someone's behavior, or reveal something he didn't intend to.

 

[BellaToothless]

Did you already discuss the book that SG released in feb24 where she talks about a kidnapping game her aunt used to play with her and her sister?

What???? Could you please expand?

 

[detectivewannab]

Yesterday I was with my 84 year old mother, she was scared to sit out side a store while I went to get the car. Very sad!

 

[submarine7]

I live in a city where you can get anything anytime. Except for lantana in February! I’ve grown it as an annual, but I suspect it’s a different variety.

Desert dwellers: is it typical for a sizeable segment of lantana to be so easily grabbed? It seemed dead or otherwise just lying in the garden bed. No pulling or tearing required to pick it up, like a golf tee. Is this weird or expected for this plant?

I have it in my yard now in California and it's easy to pull but it has thick woody stems as opposed to herbaceous.

 

[penguinface]

Did you already discuss the book that SG released in feb24 where she talks about a kidnapping game her aunt used to play with her and her sister?

Yeah, that was discussed here in the first few days/first week of the case IIRC, when talk of the book was first going round online. Personally, I think it’s completely unrelated to NG’s disappearance.

JMO

 

[submarine7]

I thought the perp went in the back slider, whether locked or not, these are easy to get in.
Just an idea, NG locked the front door, but may have left a back door slider unlocked.
People often “ lock up” this way in safe neighborhoods.

JMO

Her neighbor commented on this very early on.

 

[WizPro]

As a person who also has a licensed duty to warn I can tell you that it would not be uncommon for LE to bring APS in on the 1st requested welfare check. It does appear that very initially into this event LE may have considered it an elderly person with dementia wandering etc due to several statements by family that NG was sharp as a tack. IMO. These have been posted much earlier in this thread

Someone reported concerns to Adult Protective Services about an elderly relative of mine who lives alone, believing she might be at risk of financial exploitation. The matter was fully investigated and resolved. However, APS still checks in on her from time to time. I’m trying to understand whether this kind of ongoing follow‑up is typical when APS knows someone is living alone, even after a case is closed.

 

[BellaToothless]

With regard to "is this one person or two," and what are those dark spots on his jacket, here are my speculations:

I think it's the same person, because the FBI says so in their tweet, and because I think any differences can be explained by things such as the distance from the camera, the angle, the lighting. Of course, I could be wrong.

As others have pointed out, the photo of the guy without the backpack had to have been taken earlier because when the guy has the backpack, he removes the camera that took both photos. The photo where lantana man is wearing the backpack would appear to have been before NG was taken out the front door because the floor doesn't appear to have blood on it So the order of events would be:
1. "No backpack" photo
2. Backpack photo/removal of camera
3. NG is taken out the front door, resulting in blood on the tiles

That said, the amount of time between these events is unknown to us. The timing of the first two events might known to the FBI if they could extract timestamps.

Regarding the dark spots on his jacket in the "no backpack" photo, I don't know what they are, but think it's important to remember that these photos were taken with an infrared camera and may represent things differently than how they appear to the eye.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021285842044494279

JMO

DBM camera removed 10 days after by LE was from roof of guest house not room of the middle of front of house.

 

[ab01]

SG wanted her mother either deceased or alive.

Absolutely but Leads and tips need to be prioritized. There would need to be some direction of evidence to give investigators areas to look IMO. Just doing random searches of the vast area wouldn't be likely pertinent as the OP suggested.

I do think the initial crime scene evidence likely told them this was unlikely to be a rescue situation. In addition I think it's unlikely they have been able to recover evidence as of yet how she was removed, what specific make/yr of vehicle was used and directions of where the vehicle was heading.

That really makes to tough to deploy massive ground searches bc they would have no clue where to look. I believe that's a big reason that they kept focusing on the area around her home for as long as they have. It would make sense that they would keep hoping that they missed something that would give them a direction of where to search. Hopefully that information is still yet to be discovered IE recovered camera footage.

 

[submarine7]

There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:

View attachment 646178

So far I've seen people claim:

• "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
• "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
• "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
• "It's a different person altogether"

I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:

• The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
• There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
• The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
• The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
• No-Backapck man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:

View attachment 646173

Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)
View attachment 646175
For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time

• Without meta data we don't know the date/time
• We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
• It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
• It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos

• It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
• It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification

Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

There's a simple answer to this no back pack question you can find on Cash Patel site.

 

[LAhiker]

There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:

View attachment 646178

So far I've seen people claim:

• "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
• "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
• "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
• "It's a different person altogether"

I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:

• The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
• There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
• The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
• The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
• No-Backapck man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:

View attachment 646173

Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)
View attachment 646175
For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time

• Without meta data we don't know the date/time
• We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
• It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
• It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos

• It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
• It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification

Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

Excellent analysis!

Due to the lack of a shadow, it makes sense that the "no backpack" photo came from a moment when the moon wasn't visible, whether that night or another night. (Unless it's too grainy to see a shadow, which seems unlikely.)

I'm wondering -- could it be a thumbnail from a notification on January 11?? Could that be why they're looking for video from that night?

ETA: Because Kash Patel says the images were from the morning NG disappeared, they cannot be from January 11. Oops.

JMO

 

[BellaToothless]

I don't believe that picture necessarily had to be taken before because if Nancy had batteries in her door Nest cam it could have still been recording events for up to one hour after it was disconnected.

I read that Google Nest cameras with batteries can still record events (motion/person detection) when disconnected from Wi-Fi or power for up to one hour. These offline recordings are stored in the device's internal memory and automatically uploaded to the cloud when the connection is restored.

Also there could have been other cameras inside/outside home that LE is not disclosing.

 

[warp3dwing]

There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:

View attachment 646178

So far I've seen people claim:

• "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
• "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
• "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
• "It's a different person altogether"

I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:

• The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
• There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
• The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
• The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
• No-Backapck man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:

View attachment 646173

Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)
View attachment 646175
For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time

• Without meta data we don't know the date/time
• We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
• It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
• It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos

• It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
• It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification

Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

Good thinking! I wouldn’t be surprised if a preview thumbnail would be stored on Nancy’s phone in a cache folder.

 

[Mistermagoo]

Yeah a universal cheapo vinyl holster profiled for a 6" large frame revolver hanging low off a belt loop in some goofy approximation of appendix carry with a late gen small frame semi auto tucked in is not the way to go if your life depended on it, or if you just don't want your gun falling out w/ any real movement. You also see them in $5 dollar bins at gun stores or yard sales.

But what's also strange is having a list of 40 guys and checking gun shops. AZ is a constitutional carry state that allows face to face cash private sales with no paperwork for handguns. It is also legal to borrow a gun. I highly doubt this guy went to his LGS and filled out a 4473 to buy the gun. But given the footage we saw on the Nest cam maybe Mr. Walmart Ninja did.

It is my understanding that it has been said that the 40 pics of people were from 40 different people that purchased the holster recently at local stores.

 

[warp3dwing]

I have it in my yard now in California and it's easy to pull but it has thick woody stems as opposed to herbaceous.

Thanks! So, what you’re seeing in the video is what you might expect for someone grabbing a fistful of it?

 

[submarine7]

I'm glad to see it finally occurred to him, or was explained to him, that talking about everyone one of those emails could change someone's behavior, or reveal something he didn't intend to.

Definitely odd and seemingly very purposeful.

 

[K9Enzo]

What???? Could you please expand?

Not my comment but here's a link. imo

Savannah Guthrie's Book Details 'Eerie' Pre-Dawn 'Kidnapping' Game Her Family Used to Play

Read the excerpt from Savannah Guthrie's book in which she described a mock "kidnapping" game she used to play with her family.

entertainmentnow.com