AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[maskedwoman]

There has been a lot of back and forth about a single image of the masked man which I'll call the No-Backpack Image
Note that the backpack straps and gun are not visible:

View attachment 646178

So far I've seen people claim:

• "The FBI used AI to manipulate the image"
• "Media used AI to manipulate the image"
• "This is proof that the FBI actually have more videos"
• "It's a different person altogether"

I don't know if any of those are true, but what I've done to check is downloaded each of the images and videos released by Cash Patel (Director of the FBI) from this source to compare them, and I've discovered a few interesting clues:

• The No-Backpack image is not a single frame from any of the three videos released to the public (altered or not) - The man has a completely different pose.
• There is no meta data showing the original date created (if there was, it was lost when the image was uploaded to X)
• The "Nest" logo is not shown (is it cropped?)
• The image size is tiny - resolution is 367 x 546 pixels - this is basically just a thumbnail
• No-Backpack man is not casting a shadow from the moonlight before he steps under the cover of the the porch (in the other videos, his shadow is obvious)

FIrstly, I have overlaid the No-Backpack image (367x546) over one of the FBI's other full resolution images (1536x2048) to compare the size. This makes the size / resolution disparity quite obvious:

View attachment 646173

Next I have grabbed a capture from one of the videos that shows the man, roughly in the same position, before he enters the porch (right).
No-Backpack man (left) casts no shadow. Backpack man (right) casts an obvious shadow from the Moonlight
(Note I have cropped/resized images to match each other)
View attachment 646175
For reference Moonrise on that night was around 4:54 p.m. local time, and moonset was about 6:44 a.m. the next morning.
At around 2am the moon (almost full, 98% brightness) was in the west (to the left looking out of the porch)
The weather in Tuscon at the time was clear. So there should have been bright moonlight all night.

So what does this tell us ?
1. No-Backpack image was taken at a different time

• Without meta data we don't know the date/time
• We can probably assume that it was before the other videos (since it looks like he eventually ripped the doorbell camera off its mount and took it with him)
• It could have been the same evening, but a random cloud was obscuring the moon at that moment
• It could be days before (a reconnaissance mission perhaps?)

2. The properties of No-Backpack image is significantly different to the other images/videos

• It's cropped (not full frame - refer to the image with the hand/glove - way more of the brick archway is visible)
• It is very low resolution - meaning it might be a thumbnail or a still image from a notification

Thumbnails are a graphic representation of one or multiple files, like when you're looking through a photo gallery with 18 images shown on your screen, each of those small images are a single, low resolution thumbnail file.
Without them, you would only see a list of filenames.

Notification images are like a snapshot of an event that might be shown in the Nest App. Again, low resolution.
With Thumbnails and Notification images, the metadata does not necessarily reflect the time that the original image was captured. So Google/FBI may not know what time/date the No-Backpack event actually happened.

3. Was the image manipulated/altered to remove the backpack/gun?
- We can't tell for sure, but I think it's very unlikely.

4. Is No-Backpack image from another video that hasn't been released?
- Probably not. If the FBI had a full resolution video, it would not make any sense to crop and resize a single frame to release to the public in such low resolution).

That's all I have. I hope it clears things up a little, and I apologise for the essay.

That's a great catch about the shadow. I noticed the sky is much darker in the no backpack picture as well. I see you considered that the moon might be behind a cloud so perhaps that's it. I agree that it seems odd that it's so small and of a lesser resolution than other pictures allegedly from the same video/camera.

It is also quite alarming to consider that people in masks may have been skulking around NG's home on multiple evenings and no one realized it.

 

[Forest_Wood]

Why are some of you so determined to create a mystery surrounding this card?? In the big scheme of things, it’s insignificant to the case. IMO

 

[MistyWaters]

I'm sure the person whose name is on the card has been talked to by now IMO

Yes and probably dozens if not hundreds of tips have been sent in about it, “you need to find out the reason the APS investigator left her card”.

 

[Kapua]

Brian Entin: Hold my beer, I'll just go to Mexico and chat with the locals. I love it. haha IMO

Dos mas cervesas, por favor!

I do think it's an option worth exploring, given the proximity to the border. But as other posters ahead of me have pointed out, Mexico doesn't want our criminals and will gladly expedite their removal - under certain conditions. One of them is that the crime must not be punishable by the death penalty.

 

[Kapua]

Why are some of you so determined to create a mystery surrounding this card?? In the big scheme of things, it’s insignificant to the case. IMO

It's a quarter-pounder nothing burger with cheese, IMHO.

 

[Forest_Wood]

the 40 minutes or so inside the home…my heart goes out to Nancy Guthrie…

The over 60’s age group has been increasing in #s, especially the past few years. And therefore crime(s) targeting the elderly too
Rape, sexual assault, etc too.
I am sure LE is investigating any and all angles

Sending good karma to her and her family/friends. As well as all of you fellow “websleuthers”. Hoping answers come sooner than later

It’s never been confirmed the perp was in the home for 40 minutes and has been exaggerated. MOO

 

[Napoli]

It just mentions exactly what I posted from the article

No mention of a neighbor.

IMO it was because of the SAFE (formerly Silver) alert for NG and it was requested because of that, neighbor, LE, doesn't matter. It was after she was reported missing and has no part of this investigation. Other than the fact that the employee of APS was even able to leave the card at the front door, where we all clearly saw blood and was part of a crime scene that LE released WAY too early, again IMO.

The SHERIFF said it was a neighbor who called. The article was posted yesterday evening.

 

[VegasGirl35]

I know we can beat the APS horse to death, but my hope is the call was investigated beyond "neighbor phoned in to report missing person." Who knows if Nancy may have confided something in her prior to her disappearance and that was the real motivation behind the call.

 

[K9Enzo]

Man detained, released in Nancy Guthrie case wants his name cleared | Court TV Man detained, released in Nancy Guthrie case wants his name cleared

Well, if Sheriff Nanos was confident in publicly clearing the family..... IMO

PCSD Sheriff Nanos says Guthrie family cleared as suspects

The Guthrie family have been cleared as possible suspects in the ongoing investigation into the kidnapping of Nancy Guthrie.

www.kgun9.com

 

[stmichael]

Dos mas cervesas, por favor!

I do think it's an option worth exploring, given the proximity to the border. But as other posters ahead of me have pointed out, Mexico doesn't want our criminals and will gladly expedite their removal - under certain conditions. One of them is that the crime must not be punishable by the death penalty.

Well, assuming they are our criminals or ever caught/implicated. The travel across the Mexican border by Americans living in the Tucson area and south is notable. 1,000s of American and dual nationals cross Nogales, for instance, every day (and Rio Rico, where Carlos the delivery driver was detained is just minutes N. of Nogales) For business, dental and medical, shopping and tourism. Some commute back and forth daily including to visit family. It's a way more casual dynamic than most realize and any missing persons case within proximity of the border automatically kicks in border protocols.

 

[Chainspell]

 

[UsernameRequired]

Very Interesting

Per Google Trends

November 27, 2025
2 searches referencing "Savannah Guthrie"
City: Tubac
Metro: Sierra Vista

December 22, 2005
1 search referencing "Nancy Guthrie"
City: Catalina Foothills
Metro: Sierra Vista

December 28, 2025
2 searches referencing "Savannah Guthrie"
City: Tubac
Metro: Sierra Vista

January 9, 2026
1 search referencing "Nancy Guthrie"
City: Catalina Foothills
Metro: Sierra Vista

January 12, 2026
1 search referencing "Savannah Guthrie American Broadcaster and Journalist"
City: Tubac
Metro: Sierra Vista

January 13, 2026
1 search referencing "Savannah Guthrie American Broadcaster and Journalist"
City: Tubac
Metro: Sierra Vista

I will update if I find more.

Google Trends

trends.google.com

FYI, this isn't how Google Trends works at all and Google themselves dismissed the Fox News claims about the Nancy Guthrie search claims. Ashleigh Banfield talks about it at around the 24:30 min mark. News Nation reached out to Google to inquire about the claims and Google responded.

Here is the transcript from the video below:

Nation reached out to Google to try to get, you know, flesh this out a little bit and say, "Hey, you know, uh, what do you know about this?" And Google had some really interesting things to say. It's a little complicated. So, I am going to read their words exactly, so follow along.


Okay. Google said, "We are actively trying to get corrections in the Fox piece as there are some fundamental misunderstandings and inaccuracies in what was reported. Key facts for you to know." Again, this is Google to News Nation.


Google Trends does not — underlined in bold — show actual volume of queries. So, the suggestion that an individual person did a given search is not something you can claim via the Google Trends tool.


That's interesting.


Then underlined — very important — they say for queries with very low or even no search volume at all, Google Trends charts will show statistical noise as a privacy protection measure. Because of this, Google Trends charts are not — bold and underlined — definitive evidence of a specific search having occurred.


And then they say, if you're still planning to publish something, we can provide a statement, but would encourage you to scrutinize the claims given this information about how Trends works.


So that's super interesting because it sort of tamps down the shock value of that report.

 

[shonyakay]

Earlier I was talking about the marks seen in the driveway.

Picture source: Page Six

“She couldn’t walk 50 yards by herself,” Nanos said at the news conference, noting that while Nancy Guthrie had mobility issues because of her age, she had no cognitive issues.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-breaking/2026/02/02/savannah-guthrie-mom-missing-tucson/88470747007/

On the website Calc maps I put in a travel of Nancy that line up with the marks and go to where the marks stop.

It is exactly 50 yards.

Map Distance calculator, Google Maps Distance Calculator

Use the distance calculator map to find the distance between multiple points along a line. Map distance calculator is a simple tool that allows you to draw a line on a map and measure the distance.

www.calcmaps.com

I am not claiming that this is what happened, or that the drag marks are from Nancy, only that it is a possibility.

 

[Bluewing3102]

FYI, this isn't how Google Trends works at all and Google themselves dismissed the Fox News claims about the Nancy Guthrie search claims. Ashleigh Banfield talks about it at around the 24:30 min mark. News Nation reached out to Google to inquire about the claims and Google responded.

Here is the transcript from the video below:

Nation reached out to Google to try to get, you know, flesh this out a little bit and say, "Hey, you know, uh, what do you know about this?" And Google had some really interesting things to say. It's a little complicated. So, I am going to read their words exactly, so follow along.


Okay. Google said, "We are actively trying to get corrections in the Fox piece as there are some fundamental misunderstandings and inaccuracies in what was reported. Key facts for you to know." Again, this is Google to News Nation.


Google Trends does not — underlined in bold — show actual volume of queries. So, the suggestion that an individual person did a given search is not something you can claim via the Google Trends tool.


That's interesting.


Then underlined — very important — they say for queries with very low or even no search volume at all, Google Trends charts will show statistical noise as a privacy protection measure. Because of this, Google Trends charts are not — bold and underlined — definitive evidence of a specific search having occurred.


And then they say, if you're still planning to publish something, we can provide a statement, but would encourage you to scrutinize the claims given this information about how Trends works.


So that's super interesting because it sort of tamps down the shock value of that report.

Thank you for this. Google Trends is NOT absolute like people believe. It's not worth jumping down this rabbit hole. IMO

 

[slowpoke]

Why are some of you so determined to create a mystery surrounding this card?? In the big scheme of things, it’s insignificant to the case. IMO

Haha, It’s just what we do here at WS, isn’t it?

We parse, break down, and pick apart statements from every report.
We look to find inconsistencies, or meaning behind words used, or clues that might reveal a truth in cases.

jmo

 

[SMK777]

I know we can beat the APS horse to death, but my hope is the call was investigated beyond "neighbor phoned in to report missing person." Who knows if Nancy may have confided something in her prior to her disappearance and that was the real motivation behind the call.

That would be significant.

 

[No it's not]

Here is a link from Pima County with the Property Record for NG’s property, if anyone is interested:

https://www.asr.pima.gov/ParcelData/prc/10810/0960.pdf

Cheers,
Nin

 

[MarciB]

I don’t think any official sources have claimed he used the front door to enter, unless I’ve missed something

I can't delete this as it keeps showing up for me, so I'll save

 

[Puzzles8]

How do I go there? Once a saw a “go to page” button but now I don’t see it.

At the top and bottom of the page you see page numbers.
1 .... 1766 1767 1758 etc. Hover over and click the .... and it will ask you for the page number you want.
Hope this helps!

JMO

 

[Napoli]

I know we can beat the APS horse to death, but my hope is the call was investigated beyond "neighbor phoned in to report missing person." Who knows if Nancy may have confided something in her prior to her disappearance and that was the real motivation behind the call.

I agree with you VegasGirl35

100s of posts over days about the cheap holster. No one complained. It is really just not a crime busting clue.imo Hundreds of posts even to this day about what time NG's garage door went up Saturday night, even though in the last couple of days the family has been cleared, and no one complained! Introduce an oddity that an APS card appeared on her front door and was photographed by a reporter ( who obviously thought it was significant) and it is dismissed. I think it should at least be considered in the totality of THE BIG BOYS i.e. the police ,were tending to a crime scene and the lady was already missing. The timing of Monday morning makes no sense. IMO, APS may have been called prior to the crime being committed to ensure SOMEONE would know NG wasnt there and the ball would start rolling. JMO