• #36,421
LE needs to look for Nancy in the certain radius that the ransom author mentions in the first note. Harvey Levin told Anderson Cooper, "They as much as say she is, that uh, she is in a certain radius."
Also said she was in Mexico. How can we know which one if any is legitimate? LE is having a tough time figuring ths out.
 
  • #36,422
Any idea why he was doing on camera interviews with anyone who would listen? I want to listen to Brian but this place moves so fast I run out of time.
I think BE is hoping for resolution and sticking around so he's looking to create stories to augment his reporting on NG
 
  • #36,423

Nancy Guthrie case may see resources scaled back as leads come up empty: Sources​

The Guthrie family is aware the probe might need to be modified, sources said

 
  • #36,424
I'm starting to think it's targeted against the family with the intent of inflicting maximum pain on the survivors of NG.
That may explain the relative radio silence from the family. Constantly going on camera, doing interviews and making pleas would be giving him exactly what he wants.
 
  • #36,425
Trying hard to stay positive... But it feels like things have slowed...
way...
down.

Anyone here paint with watercolors? As you begin a piece you might start with vibrant colors and if you let the wet colors mix together you start to see new beautiful patterns and unique unexpected colors which are really inspiring... and you get so many exciting ideas that you continue working frantically and you keep going...
And going...
and then you suddenly realize you've gone too far - you should have stopped along the way and noticed each change, each clue, but now everything is muddled and you don't even know where you started or how you got to where you are. Things have run together. The light is gone. Everything is dark.

That's how i feel right now. And it makes me sad but I'm still very much hoping for good news, like a beautiful painting that can bring the light back. Our hearts are lifted for you Nancy. Moo
 
  • #36,426
Indeed, as all of us are. But hope aside, where are the unyielding pleas from family and law enforcement and the appeals to media to stay and keep this case in the public eye? Why are law enforcement - and even the President himself! - telling media that they pretty much need to move on to another story?

To be clear - this is not a dig in any way at the family, because we can extrapolate from reports and from their media appearances that they have been meticulously managed throughout all of this.

But to what end?

JMO.
The family just needs privacy right now. I had just turned 30 when my mom passed away, my baby brother was a senior in high school. The hardest part for me, other than my mom being gone, was that life didn’t stop. Life just goes on all around you like nothing happened. Bills still had to be paid, kids still needed to be taken care of,etc. My mom passed from an illness. Our family got closure, Guthrie family doesn’t have that atm and I cannot even begin to fathom the utter hell this family is dealing with. Wondering every day if your mom is alive …What happened, what did they do to her, where is she, what do they want?
They need space. Specifically a safe space. I don’t think there’s going to be any more public pleas from the family. If anything like that goes down imo it’s gonna be behind the scenes.
Also, there’s some psycho out there that took their mom. It’s a matter of safety. I would not feel safe knowing the person that kidnapped and hurt my mother was still out there, maybe wanting to hurt my children or family or me. It’s a horrific situation. The media needs to back off and let LE do its thing ang Let the family “hide” and grieve privately in the way that’s best for each of them. Life goes on, it doesn’t stop. Prayers for Nancy and family. MOO
 
  • #36,427
Indeed, as all of us are. But hope aside, where are the unyielding pleas from family and law enforcement and the appeals to media to stay and keep this case in the public eye? Why are law enforcement - and even the President himself! - telling media that they pretty much need to move on to another story?

To be clear - this is not a dig in any way at the family, because we can extrapolate from reports and from their media appearances that they have been meticulously managed throughout all of this.

But to what end?

JMO.
I've been struck as well by how passive everyone is being about this. The sheriff, FBI, family, friends, neighbors all seem to lack any kind of urgency about this poor missing 84 year old lady. No appeals from family or friends, no neighborhood searches by the community, no press conference appeals. None of the typical activity you see when a missing person case is high profile.

The whole atmosphere is off. I think the resolution of this case is going to surprise a lot of people. IMO
 
  • #36,428
The odd behavior of the front porch intruder can be explained by assuming that a change had to be made to the kidnapper’s original plan to exit the house by the same path used to enter the house; namely, by the back door. The following paragraphs explain this further.

The first figure shows the first frame of video from the front door camera that shows the intruder approaching the front porch. Notice that the intruder is stepping onto the front walk from a position to the left, and not from the right or from straight ahead. Therefore, it is unlikely that he came up the front walk steps where the hand rail is located. So, where could he be coming from?
View attachment 647008
The answer can be found by looking at the second figure, which shows an aerial view of the front of the house.
View attachment 647010
This view shows the intruder’s position with a red rectangle. It is immediately in front of a white circular stepping stone that can be seen in both the door camera video and the aerial view of the house. Now, this position is approached most easily by a clear path to the corner of the house as shown by the red dots in the aerial view. It is unlikely that the intruder entered this bath from any point short of the corner of the house because he would have had to climb over a two-foot high pile of rocks to reach the path as shown in the third figure – something not impossible, but a hassle that one would have preferred to avoid especially at night.
View attachment 647011
Therefore, it appears that the intruder came to the front door from a point beyond the corner of the house. This point was most likely the point of entry into the house, which we are told by authorities was the door to the back porch. If this is the case, then most likely the intruder came from inside the house before he approached the front door.

Now, let’s assume that that the original plan was to for the kidnapper(s) to exit the house by walking out the back door with their victim walking beside them to their vehicle located somewhere down the street. This would have been their safest option to avoid other cameras. And parking the vehicle on the street would have made it easier for a fast getaway than parking in the driveway, where they could have been blocked in. Unfortunately, while they were inside the house it became apparent to them that it was impossible for Nancy to walk to the vehicle where it was, either because Nancy told them she couldn’t walk that far or because they could see for themselves that she couldn’t walk that far (they could have spotted the walker she used inside the house). Therefore, they were forced to make a change in their exit plan and to bring the vehicle closer to the house so Nancy wouldn’t have to walk as far. The front door was decided to be the best option for doing this.

Therefore, while one of the kidnappers remained with Nancy to ensure that she didn’t call the police, the other kidnapper exited out the back door to get the vehicle. While on his way to get the vehicle, he remembered that there was a front door camera that could see the vehicle approach the front of the house, watch them enter the vehicle, and make their getaway. He knew this camera existed because of his reconnaissance of the house a few weeks earlier, when he was spotted unknowingly by the front door camera. Therefore, he had to either cover up the camera or remove it entirely before bringing the vehicle to the house. So, he went directly from the back porch to the front porch to disable the camera.

One can see on the camera video that he knew the camera existed because he held his head down while approaching the camera from the side. When he was unable to remove camera easily, he decided to temporarily cover it up with something so that it could not see the vehicle, assuming he could find a tool later in the vehicle or in the house that would help him remove the camera while they were exiting through the front door. So, he decided to use some nearby vegetation to disable the camera. While covering it with vegetation appears to most people to be a sign of gross incompetence, it actually served his purpose quite well because the camera was unable to see him later bring the vehicle to the front steps, get out, and approach the camera once more to remove it, either by approaching it from outside the house or from the inside. Then, after the camera was removed, no one could see them take Nancy down the front walk, put her in the vehicle, and then leave in the vehicle. And we know that they exited this way because of the blood on the front porch that wasn’t there when the intruder approached the camera the first time.

So this change of exit plan explains the following:

1) The front door video occurs while leaving the house and not while entering the house.
a. The intruder at the front door was inside the house prior to going to the front door and was likely the driver of the vehicle.
b. This explains the full backpack used by the intruder at the front door. It contains objects taken from inside or outside the house like possibly cameras, and other objects of value, and not just tools for entering the house.
c. It explains why covering the camera with vegetation was an effective action and not a sign of gross incompetence.

2) The intruder on the video at the front door likely had an accomplice.
a. Someone had to guarantee that Nancy would not call the police while the intruder was at the front door.
b. Someone had to guarantee that Nancy would not call the police while someone else disabled cameras and flood lights before exiting the house, which could have caused sounds that Nancy might have heard. (Nancy was hard of hearing and used hearing aids, but the kidnappers likely did not know this ahead of time).
c. The intruder appears to not have full use of his right hand, right elbow, and right leg, making it difficult for him to climb to the roof to remove cameras.
d. If the intruder did not have an accomplice, then he had to ensure that Nancy could not call the police while he was absent by tying her up with tape or cord. But it still would have been risky to leave her alone.

3) Change of exit plan does not depend upon how Nancy entered her house prior to her kidnapping.

4) Change of exit plan does not depend upon how the kidnappers entered the house.
a. Either Nancy left the back door unlocked, or
b. Someone else had left the back door unlocked, or
c. The kidnappers picked the lock on the back door. (There was no forced entry).
d. The kidnappers could have entered the house via a sliding door to the bedroom. In this case they would have still planned to exit via the back door because exiting via the sliding door would have required the victim to climb over a low brick wall. The rear porch did not have a sliding door.

5) The camera removed by the FBI from the roof of the guest house would have seen all entry and exit movements by any intruders via the back door. This camera was overlooked by the kidnappers because it was not on the roof of the main house. At this time only the FBI knows how much of this video data was stored within this camera, stored onsite in the house, or transmitted to the cloud. Perhaps some data was stored. Perhaps none was stored.
I like this analysis. Some very good points. Skeptical of a second person though. I envision a scenario where either the kidnapper and victim had a physical altercation which caused her injury or the victim had a medical emergency. A lone kidnapper who counted on escorting a walking victim at gunpoint to a vehicle is then faced with having to support, carry or drag the victim. They cannot move the victim a long distance to the waiting vehicle out of sight through the back door as planned and had to change the exit strategy in line with your observations. Just my opinion.
 
  • #36,429
That may explain the relative radio silence from the family. Constantly going on camera, doing interviews and making pleas would be giving him exactly what he wants.
Yup - remember the insta post where SG says “We beg you now to return our mother to us so that we can celebrate with her. This is the only way we will have peace. This is very valuable to us, and we will pay.” They are offering to pay for her body and they want to bury her properly.

Maybe one or more random note is legit but even if not - the punishment of the Guthries seems motive.
 
Last edited:
  • #36,430
How is this person outsmarting the best le resources and minds our country can offer? How?
 
  • #36,431
I'm starting to think it's targeted against the family with the intent of inflicting maximum pain on the survivors of NG.

And think of the Instagram post when SG intimated that they wanted to "celebrate" with mom. I think that was a lightly veiled plea for her remains.

Someone killed their mom and took away the body so they couldn't even have a funeral. How brutal and punishing.
Ditto, perpetual anguish :(
 
  • #36,432
Trying hard to stay positive... But it feels like things have slowed...
way...
down.

Anyone here paint with watercolors? As you begin a piece you might start with vibrant colors and if you let the wet colors mix together you start to see new beautiful patterns and unique unexpected colors which are really inspiring... and you get so many exciting ideas that you continue working frantically and you keep going...
And going...
and then you suddenly realize you've gone too far - you should have stopped along the way and noticed each change, each clue, but now everything is muddled and you don't even know where you started or how you got to where you are. Things have run together. The light is gone. Everything is dark.

That's how i feel right now. And it makes me sad but I'm still very much hoping for good news, like a beautiful painting that can bring the light back. Our hearts are lifted for you Nancy. Moo
I do this with acrylics too! Far too often. Good analogy.
 
  • #36,433
  • #36,434
I think BE is hoping for resolution and sticking around so he's looking to create stories to augment his reporting on NG
Sorry I meant that LD guy with the RR or whatever his initials are. I was wondering why he was giving so many interviews to anyone who would have him. My brain is shutting down lol. Did BE do an interview with RR guy?
 
  • #36,435
  • #36,436
I've been struck as well by how passive everyone is being about this. The sheriff, FBI, family, friends, neighbors all seem to lack any kind of urgency about this poor missing 84 year old lady. No appeals from family or friends, no neighborhood searches by the community, no press conference appeals. None of the typical activity you see when a missing person case is high profile.

The whole atmosphere is off. I think the resolution of this case is going to surprise a lot of people. IMO
I agree. What do you see as a possible ending to all of this?
 
  • #36,437
And I think the SG/siblings Insta posts seem strange because they don't know if the ransom note senders are the same people who (probably) killed and took their dead mother's body, so they are speaking to both potential parties at once, for example combining a plea for a body with a willingness to pay.

We are not privy to anything in the house. Any message, or specific damage - that would convey revenge explicitly.
 
  • #36,438
I've been struck as well by how passive everyone is being about this. The sheriff, FBI, family, friends, neighbors all seem to lack any kind of urgency about this poor missing 84 year old lady. No appeals from family or friends, no neighborhood searches by the community, no press conference appeals. None of the typical activity you see when a missing person case is high profile.

The whole atmosphere is off. I think the resolution of this case is going to surprise a lot of people. IMO

I think the lack of urgency was because of what they saw at the scene and things that raised red flags. Maybe the Sheriff and others were focused in a certain direction early on because of those things - not realizing that they could have an alternate explanation.

Then they recover the video of the suspicious person at Nancy's door and things seemed to pivot.

The Sheriff has been real emotional here lately when he talks about Nancy. I wonder if he feels like he was wrong now in his first impressions.
 
  • #36,439
I've been struck as well by how passive everyone is being about this. The sheriff, FBI, family, friends, neighbors all seem to lack any kind of urgency about this poor missing 84 year old lady. No appeals from family or friends, no neighborhood searches by the community, no press conference appeals. None of the typical activity you see when a missing person case is high profile.

The whole atmosphere is off. I think the resolution of this case is going to surprise a lot of people. IMO
I agree. It makes you wonder.
 
  • #36,440
How is this person outsmarting the best le resources and minds our country can offer? How?
We don't know how many perps there are and if they are still alive or in this country by now. A person earlier said, and I never thought of this, maybe they were "unstable" and Nancy passed and the coverage and fear took over and they took the "cowards way out"? There are so many scenarios people are coming up with that I can't say "no way that is what is going on" because none of know. My hope was for Nancy to have amnesia and be in a hospital somewhere but no way with the news coverage :(
 

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