AZ Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[EncyclopediaBrownJr]

I’ve been all over the place on this case. My thoughts so far…..

I’ve wondered why if someone was interested in an inheritance they would remove the decedent. That delays an estate administration. How many years in AZ to have person declared dead? If the body is left, estate administration can begin immediately. Same with life insurance. Removing the person slows down inheritance.

Usually, when a person is taken from the home, it’s because the culprit wants others to believe they left on their own accord and nothing is wrong. Everything is fine. But this was not that. Obviously, victim was injured.

And, if the culprits took victim for money, then actually make a proper demand and try to get the money. It doesn’t appear that was done. Either they are not connected to the public demands or they made them for sport with no real expectation of recovery.

That leaves abduction out of spite/revenge or mental disturbance with disorganized thought.

At first I thought it was some kind of deranged killer looking to punish SG.

Now I’m leaning towards a kidnap for ransom that went wrong. NG probably passed while in the car while she was being driven away from her home for all we know.

The latter to me just makes more sense. I think whoever did this had experience breaking into peoples homes. He wasn’t a pro but clearly an amateur but he was too calm in front of that camera. I’m leaning towards one perp as the lantana guy seems disorganized. To have a back door guy requires coordination and I just don’t see that here. Could there be two in the sense that a separate guy sends the ransom email? Sure but I think there was one perp in that house on that night.

MOO

 

[SaraSmile]

From another case that happened at the Mojave National Preserve, I learned from other posters about a cactus called Teddy Bear cholla, or “jumping cholla”. Very dangerous. I believe Arizona has the same plant everywhere.

See the danger here:

I’m in a cacti area of CA, and occasionally get stuck by spines. The trouble is they break off just below the skin, and get sore, like a splinter, they need to be dug out. If allowed to stay in skin, they can fester, get very red and sore. Lots of very sharp cacti and other plants.

JMO

 

[GMG1999]

It's not just you. If someone is at my door in the dead of night, there's no way I'm opening it.

I can understand this. I suppose if I recognize the voice, I might, if I had heard it. We don't have one, but my assumption is these door bells ring to the phone of the homeowners?

 

[GrannySheri]

I can understand this. I suppose if I recognize the voice, I might, if I had heard it. We don't have one, but my assumption is these door bells ring to the phone of the homeowners?

They ring through your phone unless you purchase a separate device that plugs into an outlet and it will also ring through the device. I have both but my system is a Ring and Nancy had a Nest but I assume they are similar.

 

[TBYOOL]

I didn't mean to imply a slip. I just thought the choice of words was interesting given how early into the investigation it was. Definitely could have been nothing, but I was surprised because it seems to me that a bulk of reporters and journalists tend to choose their words wisely, but I agree that not everyone thinks of words in the same way.

Edited to add that I didn't intend to offend anyone with my original post. This was just an observation and opinion on my end.

Just to be clear, I wasn’t offended. I write a great deal in my work and edit, too, so I do pay attention to the subtleties of grammar and word choice, but that work also makes me very aware that even reporters aren’t always precise and tense gets confused all the time. Typing with my thumbs doesn’t exactly encourage my own writing! I guess quite often the import of word choice or tense depends on the overall context. All my opinion but in the spirit of the forum.

 

[TIGER0822]

The kidnapper was in the home for over 40 minutes. That’s not a simple burglary, or a planned kidnapping. That kidnapper had a mission. The guy at the door was very calm. Oh poor Nancy. Reading @Oldguy theory makes sense . Say this was a sick sex crime - why would he take her with him?

 

[SMK777]

22 days later and still no Nancy.

Where is she?

I remember that night they went after CP.
It seemed like the surveillance footage had been released and then bam, SWAT team.

It seemed like THE suspect would be caught, and there were rumors about a helicopter possibly taking NG to hospital to treat her for the days of trauma.

I now see that was a fairytale perspective.

 

[Prancy]

At first I thought it was some kind of deranged killer looking to punish SG.

Now I’m leaning towards a kidnap for ransom that went wrong. NG probably passed while in the car while she was being driven away from her home for all we know.

The latter to me just makes more sense. I think whoever did this had experience breaking into peoples homes. He wasn’t a pro but clearly an amateur but he was too calm in front of that camera. I’m leaning towards one perp as the lantana guy seems disorganized. To have a back door guy requires coordination and I just don’t see that here. Could there be two in the sense that a separate guy sends the ransom email? Sure but I think there was one perp in that house on that night.

MOO

I’m on the fence about how many. If two, then easy to overpower senior lady with no one hurt. If 1 culprit, she’s hard to handle….struggle ensues, thus injury. Takes a long time. And, to me…

How to actually get ransom demand out quick and paid the money would be a primary focus, even for an unsophisticated criminal. With this it seems an afterthought….like days later they read somewhere that is what was expected. Or, it’s not connected at all. Idk. So frustrating.

 

[SaraSmile]

We have so many devices in our homes anymore that have cameras, microphones, and connectivity. Consider the following:

Desktop computers
Laptops and Tablets
SMART cellphones
Apple Watch
Fitness bracelets
Streaming devices like Apple TV, Roku
Virtual assistants like Alexa or NEST
SMART TV's
SMART refrigerators or ovens
SMART lighting
SMART speakers
Robot vacuum
Wireless thermostats
Vehicles (ETA per @SaraSmile - thanks!)

Certainly NG must have had more of these than we know for certain (phone, watch).

Is it likely LE is attempting to retrieve data that might have been collected from any of these in an attempt to determine WHO and HOW MANY were in NG's home the night of Jan 31/February 1? I wonder if "exceptions to the usual" faces/voices could be whittled out of that data?

Great list, amazing how much tech in devices now. Hopefully more video of the perp, perps from NGs cameras . I hope neighbor’s cameras will provide more video, too. Street cameras, if vehicles can be shown. Phone geofencing. JMO

 

[Forest_Wood]

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You have a terrific media voice!

 

[Charlot123]

From mid-January - mid-February there are approximately 65,000 outside visitors to Tucson for a show. Why aren't visitors suspect?

My first thought, and I have been to Tucson twice, is, “with these types, who knows”, but because I know who goes there, I’d tend to say, no.

These shows are a traveling market. A bazaar. Crimes on the market are against property, not against humans.

The show was way smaller this year, according to vendors. From my impression of very old shows, it was 1/2 US gem vendors, a few, from Europe, many based in Thailand (of all ethnic groups) and lots of vendors from India, Sri Lanka, such places. The goal of vendors is to come, unload, get money, establish some contacts, and leave for the next show.

The locals in Tucson were welcoming, helpful, blissfully unaware of the world geography and not minding clusters of different people in a downtown center. But if anyone, especially a non-local, would be driving around Catalina Foothills, I’d seriously doubt it will pass unnoticed.

Vendors were always concerned with being mugged themselves, btw. It is true that all vendors use cryptocurrency and that the market is highly specific. But, let us imagine, a group of gems and jewelry thieves arrived in Tucson and got upset with the low return. Would they switch to abducting people for ransom or travel to the next show to steal rough, minerals or stones?

Consider this: crimes against property and crimes against humans have very different charges. The attitude to the criminals is different.

Could someone attending the show during those days hear about the abduction, connect to home and start blackmailing the family via TMZ? I think vendors are smarter. If they didn’t make enough money, they are probably booking stands at other shows now, bypassing highly criminalized case.

Can some weirdo helping at the show do it? Yes, but he still has to know the area.

The only plausible scenario would be similar to Wilkie Collins’ “the Moonstone”. Nancy Guthrie lived in Australia. Maybe it was the beginning of the Argyle diamonds boom (it started later but her husband was a mining engineer so he could get some samples) so she had brought some… etc, etc. But I doubt that an old lady would keep such valuables at home to start with.

 

[K9Enzo]

Well..as an old police sergeant said to me about Shepherds: “they are hard to anchor.” That’s if you hit them! Hitting a rapidly moving target is incredibly difficult…

More to the point-the animal’s bark in a defensive/attack mode is incredibly intimidating. When our family lived in a 15 house block just outside North Philly with our overly large and aggressive Shepherd-14 of the houses were burglarized in 10 years. Ours was not. Dealing with aggressive and powerful dogs is not easy-or necessary... the animal that has bonded with their owner will fight you to the last beat of their heart. They will bleed, and in all probability, so will you.

Pre-incident surveillance that uncovers a guardian dog is a strong reason to do more victim selection.

I used the dog as an example. As another, I’m reminded of a fatal shooting in Nashville years ago. Neighbors called 911 on hearing the rounds.
On arrival they found a well known teen hoodlum DRT. ( Dead Right There.)

They spoke to the old gentleman still sitting on his porch )who willingly surrendered his ancient revolver). He explained the guy tried to rob him. Realizing the fellow looked ancient the lady cop asked him “how old are you sir?” The old gent laughed and said “I’m the oldest man in Nashville …just turned 104.”

So many things would have prevented this.

I’m not sure what the police SGT meant when he told you that.

Sure, if NG had a hell hound, a live-in guard, steel doors, bars on every window, motion lights like a stadium, a neighbor on night watch, someone physically with her overnight, maybe a locked gate and a patrol car parked outside this would not have happened.

Dogs in many cases are a deterrent for a random bad guy nosing around.

We don’t know the who, what, where or why yet to speculate something as simple as a dog in the home would have prevented this. IMO

 

[GMG1999]

The kidnapper was in the home for over 40 minutes. That’s not a simple burglary, or a planned kidnapping. That kidnapper had a mission. The guy at the door was very calm. Oh poor Nancy. Reading @Oldguy theory makes sense . Say this was a sick sex crime - why would he take her with him?

We don't know anything about what was found in the house correct? We only know there was unknown DNA and that she was taken from her bed? Have they said anything appears to have been taken? 40 minutes is quite a lot of time.

 

[NAM21]

Great list, amazing how much tech in devices now. Hopefully more video of the perp, perps from NGs cameras . I hope neighbor’s cameras will provide more video, too. Street cameras, if vehicles can be shown. Phone geofencing. JMO

My CPAP machine has a microphone in it. I have to disable it because it is on by default. I wonder if Nancy uses one?

 

[cherryleaf]

With that said, if there was "forced entry" into her home which hasn't been confirmed then her front door was probably locked because you would think that would be one of the first places he would check for an entrance.

In all the photos showing her home since her disappearance hit MSM, the photos of her home show a sliding door on the L front corner that appears to be slightly open. Maybe it was unlocked/open and the perp(s) initially gained entry that way,…. Or maybe NG or LE opened it for airflow. Idk what this “area” of her home is. But that sliding glass door has always bugged me. MOO
Pic attached

 

[LarryLujack]

A few maps of NG neighborhood from GIS. Assuming the perp(s) drove and parked close to the house I see one viable spot where they would virtually be in a blind spot from all potential cameras.

 

[Charlot123]

ETA: I am wondering if the perp is even a stalker. I wonder if he was a day worker, maybe an illegal with a grudge against citizens and maybe she said something to him/her. Maybe told them they were doing the work wrong or to get off her property? People are losing their minds over the simplest slight and its very possible. Maybe the perp was in her home for 41 minutes because he tied her up and looked for valuables but didn't find any. I pray she is alive now.

Which is a very reasonable observation. We have another high-profile case, the Sherman’s one, where everyone around them, family, business, has been discussed, but not people working in their homes or such.

Here, too, Nancy’s closest ones have been discussed but not people working for her.

Are we so much afraid of someone accusing us of blaming ughm, less privileged groups? Yes, I think so. It may be some “middle class shame” at play. But statistically the distribution of human traits is the same in every group so we simply have to know more about people working for her, too.

 

[Cryptic]

Not to nitpick, but not all BLM land is accessible to the public. There is BLM land which has oil fields, grazing rights, other mineral rights granted by the US govt to leasees. While technically public, access can be denied. An interesting fact: there is BLM land and NM state lands (public) in the middle of the Epstein ranch and they were once leased by Epstein. These are technically public lands, but you can google stories of people who tried to visit, hike, or explore these public lands and were challenged by Epstein employees with guns.

Those leasing BLM land for oil, ranching, etc. can only block access to areas that present safety concerns, or where entry would injure cattle etc. Though those concerns can probably lead to creative signage at times.

I have seen deceptive signage myself- and reported it to a BLM manager. He said the land was public and accessible. But... as the sign was deceptive, but technically accurate, (cattle operations were private), he allowed it to stay up as locals knew to ignore it

But.... some good news. From what I have heard from hunters and ORV types, my general belief is that BLM tolerance of "accidently" locked gates, private security goons "advising" things, "accidently" posted 'No Trespassing' signs is declining.

With the internet, more people know their rights, know how to complain and who to complain to. Likewise, even state level business friendly politicians became public access friendly after a billionaire gated a public road and had private goon patrols "advise" locals that access was "restricted".

 

[Arkay]

From another case that happened at the Mojave National Preserve, I learned from other posters about a cactus called Teddy Bear cholla, or “jumping cholla”. Very dangerous. I believe Arizona has the same plant everywhere.

See the danger here:

I understand many people, my niece included who just moved from Jersey to the California desert, love this environment.

But it seems obvious that it’s a very challenging environment if you’re looking for a possible body. So much land, so much to obscure the searches, and dangers like this plant. Plus so many areas of darkness.

I’m happier where I am where plant life is not trying to kill me!

Seriously though, it seems overwhelming to search there.

JMO

 

[EncyclopediaBrownJr]

I’m on the fence about how many. If two, then easy to overpower senior lady with no one hurt. If 1 culprit, she’s hard to handle….struggle ensues, thus injury. Takes a long time. And, to me…

How to actually get ransom demand out quick and paid the money would be a primary focus, even for an unsophisticated criminal. With this it seems an afterthought….like days later they read somewhere that is what was expected. Or, it’s not connected at all. Idk. So frustrating.

Yeah if it’s a kidnapping, if it’s one guy moving NG the blood makes sense.

If it’s two guys with one moving NG, what’s the other guy doing? They’re there for one thing only. If it’s two guys why have one in the front and one in the back? They know the target is an 84 year old woman. Splitting up doesn’t make sense to me at all.