I think this is probably spot on. I had been having the same thoughts but hadn't had the time to articulate them in this way.
It still doesn't answer the WHY or the question of what they hoped to gain from kidnapping NG, but I think it is a very well thought out plan and process of what happened.
IMHO, I believe the motive or WHY is anger and revenge. An ex of SG, ex-boyfriend or ex-BFF (male or female), ex-hubby, someone with a grudge that they have been carrying around for a long, long time.
I also believe the perp targeted SG's mom because they knew she was close to her mom and wanted to hurt her but couldn't do it directly to her without being identified or found out. (indirectly hurting her)
I believe it is a stalker but not in the sense of a stranger, someone who knows SG and knows NG. Perhaps an old friend from grammar school or high school. Someone who knows the layout of the house, because they have been there before, but not in a long, long time. (think of the comfort the perp had as he approached the front door, as if he had been there before)
In the case of an ex-boyfriend, I think the term that is used is femicide. "With femicide, the main risk factors relate to the aggressor, type of relationship and motive."
As the article below states "
the aggressor is typically a known person, mostly a partner or ex-partner with whom the victim shared an abusive relationship characterized by continuous physical and/or psychological aggressions and death threats.
The motive is usually represented by extreme jealousy due to an imaginary or real assumption that the victim is dating some other man, which frequently leads to so-called “honor” killing, or by a sense of ownership leading the aggressor to refuse the advocated end of the relationship. In this scenario, as explained by Garcia-Vergara et al. [
9],
the lethal act is justified by the distorted conceptions of the aggressor about authority, possessiveness, and the subordinate position of women, which result in the perception of a loss of control of the partner through separation or divorce."
"A related risk factor for femicide, thoroughly analyzed by McFarlane et al. [
15] and
to which separated/divorced women are mostly exposed, is stalking behavior, described as
the act of the perpetrator following or spying on the victim or trying to keep in touch with her against her will."
I'm guessing everyone has had a least one bad relationship/bad breakup in their past.
So, who in SG's past FITS this description?
THIS ATTACHED ARTICLE IS VERY GRAPHIC *****GRAPHIC WARNING*****
(1) Background: Femicide is an increasing phenomenon consisting of the murder of a woman for gender-related reasons. Despite the enactment of new laws aimed at controlling the phenomenon by toughening the penalties and introducing aggravating ...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov