Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Napoli]

Yeah perhaps at some point they pulled out a cloth to stop the flow of blood.
I wonder what leads they are following about where Nancy may have been held . Surely this person didn’t use their own home . Would it be in an abandoned home or in an air bnb or such ?

This kidnapping if unintended is extremely lucky and if pre planned extremely well planned. How long will the family have to wait for answers?

BBM What a great question! We dont know how well NG hears without her hearing aids. Might be a LOT of shouting from the perp. That's assuming he isn't keeping her drugged and she isnt compliant. I would guess a single family home. She's secluded. May have developed some form of Stockholm syndrome for survival and I am hoping he is treating her as a trophy and she is being fed etc but secluded in a room. In reality, that's probably NUTS. He already bloodied her up. She's (80%,) in my mind, already deceased. All depends if he needs to have NG in his world as a substitute for Sg or if, as some have speculated, he is someone who wanted an elderly lady for his sexual pleasure. I don't think the latter is it.. It's all disgusting and very disturbingJMO

 

[LAhiker]

Some time back, experts have said it's not 'splatter' but drops, as in a nosebleed for example. No clue what the difference would mean, as when I have a gusher nosebleed, there are drops, but also plenty of tiny spray/splatter. Ugh.

Here's a thought about the blood drops. What if there were (at least) two kidnappers. (I have no idea as to motive here.) One is in the house and the other is in a vehicle that is parked nearby. The one in the house has incapacitated NG by punching her in the face, so that she has a nosebleed. He puts her over his shoulder and then exits the front door because he knows his nearby accomplice will drive up the semicircular driveway in the front.

In that scenario, the blood might've pooled because he turned to shut the door (to postpone discovery that something had happened). Or he could've paused with her over his shoulder in the relatively hidden entryway while waiting for his accomplice to drive up.

JMO

 

[Chainspell]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027522352968610295

 

[Hopefulcat]

Whatever works for her.

I hope she does come back. She has children and cannot stay forever in Arizona.

And while she likely feels like she’d be abandoning her mom if she leaves, IMO she’s done all she can do at this point.

If there is a break in the case she can go back right away. I presume some NBC bigwigs have corporate jets and can bring her immediately back to Arizona if need be.


Obviously we still have hope, a teeny flicker of hope, that NG will emerge alive.

It seems pretty impossible by now, though, with NG lacking her meds and everything else we’ve seen over these weeks.

JMO

I can’t even imagine what its like trying to mother through this never ending heatbreak. When my baby brother died (from a fentanyl laced pill) I spent weeks in shock seriously questioning how I would ever be a mother to my own children again. Friends and family mothered them until I was physically capable of doing it again. But I at least knew where my brother was. And we got to bury him.

This limbo is truly unimaginable.

Sharing only to say - whatever she does is admirable and incredible given the situation. And speculating on this serves no one other than our own curiosity.

I do hope she returns- only if that means she is well enough to again participate in her own life again. Humans do this all the time- I have read many case studies on this return to “normalcy” but my lived experience makes this hard to imagine. I hope her faith shows her a way through the uncertainty.

 

[Walela]

Yeah perhaps at some point they pulled out a cloth to stop the flow of blood.
I wonder what leads they are following about where Nancy may have been held . Surely this person didn’t use their own home . Would it be in an abandoned home or in an air bnb or such ?

This kidnapping if unintended is extremely lucky and if pre planned extremely well planned. How long will the family have to wait for answers?

I don't think it's a kidnapping. I think it's an abduction and, to me, it has an 'LE' feel to it in that whoever it is knew what NOT to do. They either watch a lot of true crime TV re investigations and what is involved with evidence, etc or they have some first hand knowledge in their background before they went off the deep end and gave in to settling a score. NG may be collateral damage so-to-speak This may not be directed to the Guthries at all but to someone else entirely.
MOO

 

[submarine7]

I respectfully disagree on your take, but you seem to want to believe what you already believe, which is fine.

Cameras in dark areas operate on IR light, emitted from the camera. This is only good for a short distance, unless there is another light source on the subject, etc. Nest cams IR is spec'd at 20 feet, and really details at only 10 ft.

Now everything is context. The footage you are discussing is from a house much closer to the street (I believe miles away from NG neighborhood), with somewhat obscured views of cars going by. Still nothing definitive. Moving objects are also tricky on security cameras, even the license plate reader and cameras I have in my driveway have trouble at cars approaching at 5mph.

Now NG's house had a set back/driveway of 50 yards approx? with obscuring plants. You can see in the Nest doorbell videos if you look past the masked man that even if a car was parked at the end of the driveway you would not get a good look, and on IR it would be blurred/indistinguishable, especially without smart IR. And that doorbell cam's frame of view is blocked by the brick vestibule.

I don't know what your experience is, but even with IR emitter floodlights and cameras mounted down the driveway on NG's property getting a view of a car that's definitive would be very very difficult. IF she had flood lights and they were recording in regular mode, that would be much more detailed, btw, which is where the darkness factors in.

Now add in the privacy landscaping, in the video I posted of NG's neighborhood at night you can not only see the darkness which LIMITS THE REACH OF IR, but also the large hedges and privacy plants that OBSTRUCT RECORDING, certainly at that distance (see NG driveway with car parked in broad daylight, can't tell the make/model and that's at shorter distance). Also take a look at the neighborhood and the distances, the actual sight lines, etc. No camera reaches out that far. None.

And there are no street cams that record in the entire area, they are all DOT cams, not police, not flock. That has been confirmed by PCSD.

PICS ATTACHED TO ILLUSTRATE ABOVE POINTS

Two retired PC LE on STS said there are some cameras in Tucson, including red light cameras and license readers.

 

[moonglow123]

I respectfully disagree on your take, but you seem to want to believe what you already believe, which is fine.

Cameras in dark areas operate on IR light, emitted from the camera. This is only good for a short distance, unless there is another light source on the subject, etc. Nest cams IR is spec'd at 20 feet, and really details at only 10 ft.

Now everything is context. The footage you are discussing is from a house much closer to the street (I believe miles away from NG neighborhood), with somewhat obscured views of cars going by. Still nothing definitive. Moving objects are also tricky on security cameras, even the license plate reader and cameras I have in my driveway have trouble at cars approaching at 5mph.

Now NG's house had a set back/driveway of 50 yards approx? with obscuring plants. You can see in the Nest doorbell videos if you look past the masked man that even if a car was parked at the end of the driveway you would not get a good look, and on IR it would be blurred/indistinguishable, especially without smart IR. And that doorbell cam's frame of view is blocked by the brick vestibule.

I don't know what your experience is, but even with IR emitter floodlights and cameras mounted down the driveway on NG's property getting a view of a car that's definitive would be very very difficult. IF she had flood lights and they were recording in regular mode, that would be much more detailed, btw, which is where the darkness factors in.

Now add in the privacy landscaping, in the video I posted of NG's neighborhood at night you can not only see the darkness which LIMITS THE REACH OF IR, but also the large hedges and privacy plants that OBSTRUCT RECORDING, certainly at that distance. Also take a look at the neighborhood and the distances, the actual sight lines, etc. No camera reaches out that far. None.

And there are no street cams that record in the entire area, they are all DOT cams, not police, not flock. That has been confirmed by PCSD.

PICS ATTACHED TO ILLUSTRATE ABOVE POINTS

Nah, I'm enjoying reading all the discussion, it's interesting to hear people bring up their own ideas and experiences. I do believe you

Unless he was the luckiest criminal ever, I hope he was caught on camera somewhere, even if it wasn't directly by her house. I'm sure they got the silver SUV idea (speculation since C and LD both drive silver SUVs) from some workable footage somewhere.

 

[Ghostwheel]

Thinking about this more. Could the blood pattern shown in the bottom right corner of the image below be a partial handprint? Maybe pinky and ring fingers on Nancy's right hand and the side of her palm? If so, she could've been on hands and knees here, and coughing blood straight down.

View attachment 648845

What's interesting is that immediately adjacent to those print marks (whatever they are), there are intact blood drops. So, if the pattern was caused by a hand or a shoe or whatever, those nearby drops would've been deposited after that print was left.

I can almost imagine two separate blood trails on the porch, which could explain why the blood is so all over the place and not just one dripping line from the door to the driveway. Could Nancy have entered and exited the porch from the pavement and not via the front door?

ETA: Perhaps her left hand was placed on the tile just off the mat (3rd column from right, 2nd row from door), and that's why the spatter doesn't appear in that spot, although you'd think it would.

Throwing this out there. I work with stained glass and cut myself frequently. Different injuries do different things. That thin drop spatter looks exactly like a pattern I once got when the blood was dripping off my hand, and I brought my fingers up then gave it a flick shake straight down. Big drops fell off and a thin pattern spatter happened. Lots more blood drops ensued. I'm not saying this is what happened here, but if you were fireman's carrying someone and blood was dripping off a hanging hand, and you didn't want it on you, you might hurriedly shift or shake the hand or the hand could have been hit by a closing screen security door resulting in that same movement. Just a thought.

The path makes sense coming out the door (sweep out to the side the door opens on, then move to the center), and if the suspect were carrying NG and she was a little heavy for him, the staggered drops could also make sense. JMO. I'd like to see where the drops ended, but that isn't likely to happen.

 

[warp3dwing]

IDK I am trying to visualize a new theory based on your blood spatter analysis.
Two separate blood trails, NG comes onto the porch and exits the porch via the pavement. Does not go out the front door. So we have to think about how did she get to the pavement.

Could what you see be explained by NG coming out the front door, falling backwards or struggling back to the house. Then being dragged or carried forward again? So it was not a straight line, but back and forth?

Some times as data comes in we have to rethink things. The data tells the story. We cannot make the data fit the story. So I want to think about what you are saying and what others say about it.

It certainly makes more sense that she went out the front door. I can't think of a good reason not to go that route. It'd be rare for the front door to be, say, locked with a keyed deadbolt and the suspect didn't have access to the key. I doubt Nancy's doors are set up that way. Perhaps it was happenstance that blood missed the threshold and hit the mat instead. After all, there really isn't that much blood.

I've circled two areas in black that could be possible partial shoeprints.



Here's the topmost one:



And the lower one:



What's kind of interesting is these are really the only blood marks that aren't just a vertical drip (apart from the blood on blood circular pattern). They have a direction. The top pattern "points" toward/away from the biggest blood pool, and the lower pattern "points" toward/away from the second largest blood area. If we treat these patterns as loci for arcs, these larger droplet areas fall on those arcs.

To me, this might point toward a fireman carry type of situation with the blood trailing behind the suspect.

Also, in the topmost pattern, we see an imprint next to undisturbed droplets. Either those droplets had already dried when the imprint was made (unlikely), or additional drops fell afterward. That might imply something like what you suggest - some sort of struggle or at least some sort of shuffling around as he maneuvers Nancy.

Of course, there's a 99% chance I'm overthinking all of this.

On a totally different topic, I noticed there's a wreath to the left of the door. Seems like that would've been a better choice for covering the camera than a fist full o' lantana!

 

[warp3dwing]

Throwing this out there. I work with stained glass and cut myself frequently. Different injuries do different things. That thin drop spatter looks exactly like a pattern I once got when the blood was dripping off my hand, and I brought my fingers up then gave it a flick shake straight down. Big drops fell off and a thin pattern spatter happened. Lots more blood drops ensued. I'm not saying this is what happened here, but if you were fireman's carrying someone and blood was dripping off a hanging hand, and you didn't want it on you, you might hurriedly shift or shake the hand or the hand could have been hit by a closing screen security door resulting in that same movement. Just a thought.

The path makes sense coming out the door (sweep out to the side the door opens on, then move to the center), and if the suspect were carrying NG and she was a little heavy for him, the staggered drops could also make sense. JMO. I'd like to see where the drops ended, but that isn't likely to happen.

Absolutely. I definitely am leaning more toward the fireman carry theory for those reasons you specify. The sweeping/arcing makes more sense to me that someone walking under their own power.

 

[LRinCA]

But amazingly, in the dark, did not step on any of the drops???

I can't remember who it was, but someone theorized that there might be square patterns in a few of the drops that might be indicative of a pattern on a shoe sole. JMO/MOO

 

[cathathorse]

When my Mom died, I was in charge (only child) I needed to clean out her lovely home etc etc. Anyway, I was told by the insurance company when I went to renew her policy in my name as executrix as I was winding up probate, that It was going to be DOUBLE the premium because it was unoccupied. Honestly, they didt want to even insure me. But, I was in and out for several months, so sort of occupied. Same thing with my father in laws death. Just settling a regular estate is bad enough. With NG it's truly Limbo. My husband said in law school the worst course was wills, probate and estates. He said it was the make or break for many. This entire case regarding missing NG and the ins and outs of the estate would be a fabulous essay question on the bar exam. JMO

Luckily, SG is wealthy enough to self-insure the property and not worry about any of that if it were to come to that. As of now I doubt the premiums are going up because she is just considered missing-- what if she were in the hospital for a couple months or on vacation overseas? The house would technically be unoccupied but the insurance company wouldn't consider it so.

With trusts set up the designated trustee can likely make decisions on behalf the trust. Technically, the trust owns the house. And right now they aren't doing anything legally binding like selling the property-- they are just putting up cameras and installing a security system. I don't think the estate lawyers need to get involved for that, or even a power of attorney.

 

[Shanz]

It certainly makes more sense that she went out the front door. I can't think of a good reason not to go that route. It'd be rare for the front door to be, say, locked with a keyed deadbolt and the suspect didn't have access to the key. I doubt Nancy's doors are set up that way. Perhaps it was happenstance that blood missed the threshold and hit the mat instead. After all, there really isn't that much blood.

I've circled two areas in black that could be possible partial shoeprints.

View attachment 648901

Here's the topmost one:

View attachment 648884

And the lower one:

View attachment 648899

What's kind of interesting is these are really the only blood marks that aren't just a vertical drip (apart from the blood on blood circular pattern). They have a direction. The top pattern "points" toward/away from the biggest blood pool, and the lower pattern "points" toward/away from the second largest blood area. If we treat these patterns as loci for arcs, these larger droplet areas fall on those arcs.

To me, this might point toward a fireman carry type of situation with the blood trailing behind the suspect.

Also, in the topmost pattern, we see an imprint next to undisturbed droplets. Either those droplets had already dried when the imprint was made (unlikely), or additional drops fell afterward. That might imply something like what you suggest - some sort of struggle or at least some sort of shuffling around as he maneuvers Nancy.

Of course, there's a 99% chance I'm overthinking all of this.

On a totally different topic, I noticed there's a wreath to the left of the door. Seems like that would've been a better choice for covering the camera than a fist full o' lantana!

So did the abductor lock the door behind them?

 

[OldCop]

I believe it was OldCop who theorized a while back something like a turn and a pause while exiting the door. Like if you were making sure the door shut behind you, though that’s not the only possibility. JMO

I haven't the slightest idea. I suppose the condition of the inside of the house and the status of the front door and screen door should help validate or disprove this theory.

I do feel like a straight line walk from the front door to a car would show a different blood pattern. Likewise, if Nancy were over the suspect's shoulder or even being carried out some other way, I imagine we'd still see a straight-ish trail of blood. I think the blood tells a slightly more complicated story than "out the door to the car." But I haven't a clue what it is. What're your thoughts?

I’m attaching a copy of @warp3dwing’s excellent graphic which I rotated 180° to give a perspective of exiting Nancy Guthrie’s front door from inside and a copy of a photo from Fox News Digital which shows the front door of her home.

View this content on Instagram

View this content on Instagram

Entering from the front the door knob is to your right. Exiting it is to your left. Some folks have speculated PG is left handed. Picture him in the doorway facing out. He has Nancy over his left shoulder in a fireman’s carry. He reaches across his body and opens the door with his right hand and pushes it outward. He pivots right holding on to the door as he steps out, which would swing Mrs Guthrie to the left of the front door, head down. He pulls the door closed behind him stepping out on to the porch still facing more to the right. He then brings his stride forward towards the street. He does not step in Mrs Guthrie’s blood in this scenario. Thoughts?

 

[warp3dwing]

So did the abductor lock the door behind them?

I don't believe that information has been released.

 

[acutename]

Along this line of thinking why didn't this guy just load NG into her own car shielded from view inside her garage? Use her car and abandon it later.

1. did not have the keys?
2. might leave his own vehicle behind- people have gotten used to their theoretically being >1 person but we do not know that

 

[LRinCA]

IMO - Based off of this print you marked, and the fact that law enforcement has said the backpack and holster were from Walmart, I feel like this shoe from Walmart resembles the rectangular print? Total IMOO speculation...The square blood print impressions could also have been from Nancy's shoe leaving the house...Suspect photos in media.

Re: the square print impressions ^

 

[minazoe]

I feel like Nancy could have been unconscious and loose bodied as she was being carried out , hit her face/mouth/nose on the door jam, it doesn't seem like anyone was screaming or anyone heard anything. I feel like she could have been drugged and then removed from the home. maybe this just feels more humane to me..I mean this guy isn't Dexter..but I think she hit her face coming out. mOO

 

[Bodhi]

I respectfully disagree on your take, but you seem to want to believe what you already believe, which is fine.

Cameras in dark areas operate on IR light, emitted from the camera. This is only good for a short distance, unless there is another light source on the subject, etc. Nest cams IR is spec'd at 20 feet, and really details at only 10 ft.

Now everything is context. The footage you are discussing is from a house much closer to the street (I believe miles away from NG neighborhood), with somewhat obscured views of cars going by. Still nothing definitive. Moving objects are also tricky on security cameras, even the license plate reader and cameras I have in my driveway have trouble at cars approaching at 5mph.

Now NG's house had a set back/driveway of 50 yards approx? with obscuring plants. You can see in the Nest doorbell videos if you look past the masked man that even if a car was parked at the end of the driveway you would not get a good look, and on IR it would be blurred/indistinguishable, especially without smart IR. And that doorbell cam's frame of view is blocked by the brick vestibule.

I don't know what your experience is, but even with IR emitter floodlights and cameras mounted down the driveway on NG's property getting a view of a car that's definitive would be very very difficult. IF she had flood lights and they were recording in regular mode, that would be much more detailed, btw, which is where the darkness factors in.

Now add in the privacy landscaping, in the video I posted of NG's neighborhood at night you can not only see the darkness which LIMITS THE REACH OF IR, but also the large hedges and privacy plants that OBSTRUCT RECORDING, certainly at that distance (see NG driveway with car parked in broad daylight, can't tell the make/model and that's at shorter distance). Also take a look at the neighborhood and the distances, the actual sight lines, etc. No camera reaches out that far. None.

And there are no street cams that record in the entire area, they are all DOT cams, not police, not flock. That has been confirmed by PCSD.

PICS ATTACHED TO ILLUSTRATE ABOVE POINTS

Your analysis sounds right on to me. The recording that was released yesterday from outside the wall surrounding a home, within a feet of the road.

 

[Cassie P]

It certainly makes more sense that she went out the front door. I can't think of a good reason not to go that route. It'd be rare for the front door to be, say, locked with a keyed deadbolt and the suspect didn't have access to the key. I doubt Nancy's doors are set up that way. Perhaps it was happenstance that blood missed the threshold and hit the mat instead. After all, there really isn't that much blood.

BBM

Yes but the data (evidence) tells us the story of what happened, whether it makes sense or not to us. So we look at the data and base the story of what happened on that. What would best explain the blood drops and pattern? Then we go from there to figure out what happened.