• #40,701
Let's explore something. It has been posited many times here, that the perp may have used the fireman's carry to take NG out of the house. IMO FIREMEN would do that reflexively! Firemen work weird hours..24 on, 48 off. Some work 8 hour shifts, etc etc. Hospital workers also work odd shifts 12 hours on, 1-2 days off ..every other weekend off..etc..So there's that. MOO
It looks hard to do, unless really strong! I suppose firemen do this all the time! Probably, even a requirement of the job, for some of the larger men.
If Lantana man did not have a backache before the crime, he may have had a backache afterwards! Who complained to family about pain, right after Feb 1? Maybe a clue.
JMO
 
  • #40,702
I know he was written off early on as just an 'imposter', but my mind keeps going back to Derrick Callella. The guy that was arrested in LA area for writing the 'imposter' ransom note. Derrick Callella

--He both texted and called AG/TC. That is a fact. See link. How did he get their numbers?
--I know the FBI minimized this guy as just an imposter--but maybe they had to and there is more than meets the eye?
--JMO--but I would not be shocked if we hear this guys name again down the road when the pieces of the puzzle are all put together.

Funny you mention that. Check out one of Callella’s recording companies and their connection (recording company) to Phoenix AZ!

Cheers,
Nin
 
  • #40,703
According to two family members the fireman's carry is no longer the preferred method in modern fire and EMS practice. My eyes glazed over when they explained the why of it though.

Weird/odd hours... pffft. In my household no one has ever worked a M-F 9-5 shift .

IMO
Thanks for info and update. Ok, understood, preferred methods change over time.
Maybe, in this case, the perp wasn’t concerned about fire dept rules! LOL.
He just needed to take NG To Go, any way that worked at the moment.
JMO
 
  • #40,704
Interestingly, if the ransom letters were either a hoax or an after-thought and if the remnants of the surveillance video had not been available, what would we really have? A missing person case only?

If NG had to be eliminated (?) why not just have her drown in the pool and therefore leave the body? The sheriff said in one of the pressers, that the inside of the house was basically untouched, looked “pristine”. He never confirmed forced entry.

Why was she removed from the house then?

Is the blood on the floor (inside? And outside) the clue? Did she accidentally run into the intruder while possibly going to the bathroom or kitchen area? Or did the intruder injure her when she possibly tried to run (as best as she could) out of the house?

With the blood on the floor we do not just have a missing person case IMO. The blood changed the whole dynamic and the intruder’s intentions IMO.


The million dollar question is, what were the intentions? Hopefully we will get a 1 million dollar answer soon.

ALL IMOO

Cheers,
Nin
By February 2, Sheriff Panos had stated that home was a crime scene and that homicide detectives had been called in.
He has not confirmed the place of entry. Do they know? I believe they do know. They have to hold some things back to weed out false confessors.
They have said that nothing appeared to be stolen and the house was not ransacked. What made it a crime scene as opposed to an elderly person who had wandered from home? Probably the blood inside, probably in or around her bed. Savannah Guthrie in a recent video made a statement insinuating she was taken from her bed, but the Sheriff later walked that back saying they know she went to bed. This may be another fact that the FBI did not want released. This tells us though, that her bed looked as if it had been slept in. What else? Was there bedding missing or bloodstained? Was there a trail of blood from the bedroom?
Were there drag marks?
We know virtually nothing about the inside of the home except unidentified DNA was found inside.
None of us know the intent of this crime. We have all floated our own theories or rehashed analysis provided by talking heads and self proclaimed experts.
I think it was a preplanned abduction on a vulnerable senior who lived in a million dollar home. Did they know she was the mother of a celebrity? Did they ever dream this crime would receive the public attention that it has? Did they think the Bitcoin ransom was infallible/untraceable but realized it wasn’t and feared capture.
 
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  • #40,705
Let's explore something. It has been posited many times here, that the perp may have used the fireman's carry to take NG out of the house. IMO FIREMEN would do that reflexively! Firemen work weird hours..24 on, 48 off. Some work 8 hour shifts, etc etc. Hospital workers also work odd shifts 12 hours on, 1-2 days off ..every other weekend off..etc..So there's that. MOO
I don’t know but wonder: would a soldier in combat carry injured soldiers to safety that way too? Also, LE have not confirmed forced entry but it occurs to me that soldiers working urban battlefields might have some experience (possibly even tools for) forcing entry.
 
  • #40,706
It looks hard to do, unless really strong! I suppose firemen do this all the time! Probably, even a requirement of the job, for some of the larger men.
If Lantana man did not have a backache before the crime, he may have had a backache afterwards! Who complained to family about pain, right after Feb 1? Maybe a clue.
JMO
I don't think someone needs to be really strong. I'm a woman with no particular body strenght, i cannot normally lift a bag of cement of 25kg in my arms, however on my schoulders i can easily carry it around somehow. Leverage i guess 😅
 
  • #40,707
Ill add a "What if"
What if it was just someone, only Nancy may have, or not even known, rubbed someone the wrong way. With all the strange ppl around anymore, it wouldn't completely surprise me if it was just some random person she ran into whom she said something to that took it so defensively. I doubt it a bit, but my mind is willing to entertain it only because I know, personally, how sometimes I may say something that others take completely out of context.
 
  • #40,708
According to two family members the fireman's carry is no longer the preferred method in modern fire and EMS practice. My eyes glazed over when they explained the why of it though.

Weird/odd hours... pffft. In my household no one has ever worked a M-F 9-5 shift .

IMO
Ok, so when IS the fireman's carry still used?
The fireman's carry is largely considered obsolete for, and replaced by, modern, safer rescue techniques in firefighting and tactical medicine, as it exposes victims to higher heat/smoke and risks exacerbating injuries. It remains a commonly used, effective technique in wrestling and martial arts. Still a popular, effective takedown technique focusing on leverage
Not to say people wouldnt still employ that method because they may have learned it or used in , say in a course on body mechanics.. getting the victim out alive etc. is always the goal in a fire. Since we are all speculating, I wont rule out any occupation or combination of factors. JMO
 
  • #40,709
It certainly makes more sense that she went out the front door. I can't think of a good reason not to go that route. It'd be rare for the front door to be, say, locked with a keyed deadbolt and the suspect didn't have access to the key. I doubt Nancy's doors are set up that way. Perhaps it was happenstance that blood missed the threshold and hit the mat instead. After all, there really isn't that much blood.

I've circled two areas in black that could be possible partial shoeprints.

View attachment 648901

Here's the topmost one:

View attachment 648884

And the lower one:

View attachment 648899

What's kind of interesting is these are really the only blood marks that aren't just a vertical drip (apart from the blood on blood circular pattern). They have a direction. The top pattern "points" toward/away from the biggest blood pool, and the lower pattern "points" toward/away from the second largest blood area. If we treat these patterns as loci for arcs, these larger droplet areas fall on those arcs.

To me, this might point toward a fireman carry type of situation with the blood trailing behind the suspect.

Also, in the topmost pattern, we see an imprint next to undisturbed droplets. Either those droplets had already dried when the imprint was made (unlikely), or additional drops fell afterward. That might imply something like what you suggest - some sort of struggle or at least some sort of shuffling around as he maneuvers Nancy.

Of course, there's a 99% chance I'm overthinking all of this.

On a totally different topic, I noticed there's a wreath to the left of the door. Seems like that would've been a better choice for covering the camera than a fist full o' lantana!
One of the biggest reasons to NOT go out the front door is that there is a bigger chance of being seen by neighbors, security cameras act.
In my opinion using the back door to exit the house would allow the perpetrators(s) to use alternate routes of escape from the backyard.
As for blood on the front porch, the perpetrators could have dropped blood from a container that they brought with them (could have been animal blood). This tactic may have been used to confuse investigators during the initial phases of crime scene analysis.
Certainly LE could eventually figure out that it wasn’t NG’s blood but the time required to get back test results would give more time for the perpetrators to leave the Tucson area altogether.
Just my opinion.
 
  • #40,710
Thanks for info and update. Ok, understood, preferred methods change over time.
Maybe, in this case, the perp wasn’t concerned about fire dept rules! LOL.
He just needed to take NG To Go, any way that worked at the moment.
JMO

I still wonder if they didn't immediately sedate her (based on the book I just finished where that was done several times) and that would have been the most effective way to carry her out of the house.

MO
 
  • #40,711
Something I wondered based on LE requests date for camera footage and the ransoms is if the perp possibly has a preference for Sunday and Monday and why?

For example, LE asked for neighbors to share any home security camera footage that took place on January 11th, NG was abducted in the early hours of February 1st and demanding the ransom before 5 on February 9th was one of the deadlines given for the ransom. I wonder if there is something about Sunday, in particular, and maybe Saturday nights or evenings that makes the more perp more available or accessible in the committing of this crime as compared to other days of the week. For example, does he work a job that requires to travel and reside in another city but he is regularly able to return to or spend Sunday back in Tucson? Does he work outside the city limits, like in a mountainous or desert area and usually spends all day there or camp there on work days or non-Sundays and Mondays? Does he have a kid or family and maintains a stricter schedule or pattern he doesn’t want to deviate, and thus draw attention from? Does he work on Saturdays? If hypothetically his ransom note implied he was going to return NG on Thursday or Monday after receiving what, if anything, could LE maybe infer about the regular patterns, work schedules or responsibilities of his everyday life or type of field he might work in?

If perp does face to travel out of the area or Tucson a lot of go back and forth due to work and such isn’t possible then are taking NG with them while also concealing her? For example, by unfortunately forcing her into the trunk of a vehicle, similar to other kidnapping or abduction victims.

I also wondered if it would be helpful or even useful if LE scoped or asked the local drug and pharmacy stores, like CVS and such, if anyone had come by on the 1st or first few days afterwards buying first aid supplies, ice or heating pads and pain medication and such considering that NG did appear to be bleeding a lot and perhaps the perps did not have enough or maybe any supplies to assess and address the injury and treat with any pain she may be experiencing? Perhaps camera, digital or payment information or data could be yielded if anything turns up useful or intriguing to investigators. Just a thought

Just thinking about loud/speculating



Nancy Guthrie update: Family acknowledges deadline, ransom demand

great post
 
  • #40,712
Ok, so when IS the fireman's carry still used?
The fireman's carry is largely considered obsolete for, and replaced by, modern, safer rescue techniques in firefighting and tactical medicine, as it exposes victims to higher heat/smoke and risks exacerbating injuries. It remains a commonly used, effective technique in wrestling and martial arts. Still a popular, effective takedown technique focusing on leverage
Not to say people wouldnt still employ that method because they may have learned it or used in , say in a course on body mechanics.. getting the victim out alive etc. is always the goal in a fire. Since we are all speculating, I wont rule out any occupation or combination of factors. JMO
Good idea! Wrestling! Martial arts! A lot of young people are in that sport!

JMO
 
  • #40,713
I went back to look at the footage after recent comments on lantana man’s gait and movement patterns, because I’m a former personal trainer who tends to pick up on those things but had never noticed anything unusual in the video.

What I see now is someone stepping in a way to avoid making noise. I don’t see an injury or compensating patterns—IMO—I see him lifting each foot in a way that just slightly increases the air time and reduces the number of steps needed. Hence someone’s comment upthread about spacewalking (my term)—if you wanted to make as little noise as possible, you’d walk like an astronaut, too. MOO

TMZ
Isn’t the slow walk also due to the fact that it is dark on the porch?

When I am finding my way in the dark, I walk slower, and also think my eyes probably open wider as a reflex to try to see better.

The Nest cam is infrared light, so what we see on the video and images of the man on the porch is not how it appeared to him. It was dark, to him. At least, that was my understanding. Is that accurate?

jmo
 
  • #40,714
Very good insight. Everyone should check it out.


Here we have a cop who works burglaries in Tucson, in that very area (we was also SWAT) :



- Nighttime burglaries, though rare, do happen in that area. He's seen several cases in Tucson where brazen burglars entered occupied homes at night.

- NG was a soft target

- He knows the neighborhood well and attests to it's darkenss "You can't see you hand at night right in front of your face there."

- Was on local SWAT and says FBI HRT team is the best. That's all they do, so of course they are better at it, he stresses.. But also says that being on SWAT you are human and get your feelings hurt when another agency tries to take over your case.
 
  • #40,715
I went back to look at the footage after recent comments on lantana man’s gait and movement patterns, because I’m a former personal trainer who tends to pick up on those things but had never noticed anything unusual in the video.

What I see now is someone stepping in a way to avoid making noise. I don’t see an injury or compensating patterns—IMO—I see him lifting each foot in a way that just slightly increases the air time and reduces the number of steps needed. Hence someone’s comment upthread about spacewalking (my term)—if you wanted to make as little noise as possible, you’d walk like an astronaut, too. MOO

TMZ
Earlier in the thread we said there were some golfer moves by Lantana Man. Do you see any of that?
 
  • #40,716
By February 2, Sheriff Panos had stated that home was a crime scene and that homicide detectives had been called in.
He has not confirmed the place of entry. Do they know? I believe they do know. They have to hold some things back to weed out false confessors.
They have said that nothing appeared to be stolen and the house was not ransacked. What made it a crime scene as opposed to an elderly person who had wandered from home? Probably the blood inside, probably in or around her bed. Sheriff Panos made a statement insinuating she was taken from her bed, but later walked that back saying they know she went to bed. This may be another fact that the FBI did not want released. This tells us though, that her bed looked as if it had been slept in. What else? Was there bedding missing or bloodstained? Was there a trail of blood from the bedroom?
Were there drag marks?
We know virtually nothing about the inside of the home except unidentified DNA was found inside.
None of us know the intent of this crime. We have all floated our own theories or rehashed analysis provided by talking heads and self proclaimed experts.
I think it was a preplanned abduction on a vulnerable senior who lived in a million dollar home. Did they know she was the mother of a celebrity? Did they ever dream this crime would receive the public attention that it has? Did they think the Bitcoin ransom was infallible/untraceable but realized it wasn’t and feared capture?

These last couple questions are especially good, IMO. "Too much heat, abort mission"
 
  • #40,717
Let's explore something. It has been posited many times here, that the perp may have used the fireman's carry to take NG out of the house. IMO FIREMEN would do that reflexively! Firemen work weird hours..24 on, 48 off. Some work 8 hour shifts, etc etc. Hospital workers also work odd shifts 12 hours on, 1-2 days off ..every other weekend off..etc..So there's that. MOO
Good points. But, you have to consider how difficult it is to carry an unconscious or deceased person. If you were trying to rescue someone in this condition, you might try to scoop them up to carry them out of danger, but I think if you were trying to get someone out quickly you would almost instinctively throw them over your shoulder whether you are a trained responder or not.

dead weight
noun [ C usually singular ]
the heaviness of a person or object that cannot or does not move by itself:
She may be small but, when I have to carry her upstairsafter she's fallen asleep, she's a dead weight (US also she is dead weight).
 
  • #40,718
Dbm
 
  • #40,719
These last couple questions are especially good, IMO. "Too much heat, abort mission"

So...just thinking outloud here. If this was an attempted burglary that had to be aborted because NG unexpectedly needed medical attention or, even worse, passed away...do you all think that the robber(s) even managed to steal anything? Was the "mission" even "worthwhile" for them?
 
  • #40,720
One of the biggest reasons to NOT go out the front door is that there is a bigger chance of being seen by neighbors, security cameras act.
In my opinion using the back door to exit the house would allow the perpetrators(s) to use alternate routes of escape from the backyard.
As for blood on the front porch, the perpetrators could have dropped blood from a container that they brought with them (could have been animal blood). This tactic may have been used to confuse investigators during the initial phases of crime scene analysis.
Certainly LE could eventually figure out that it wasn’t NG’s blood but the time required to get back test results would give more time for the perpetrators to leave the Tucson area altogether.
Just my opinion.
One thing I’d like to know is whether egress from the rear of the house to the street was possible without scaling the fence. In other words, could Nancy have walked or been carried out that route, or was the yard gate somehow impassable?

If both the front and rear routes were usable for the abduction, what made the front door a better choice? Yes, it’s closer to the driveway, but it required disabling a camera (assuming in this scenario that the suspect did not want to be caught on video). We’ve heard that Nancy couldn’t walk far, but with help - and the powerful motivation of a firearm - I think she could’ve managed either route, if clear.

And if it turns out Nancy was carried, a slightly longer but camera-free route out the back would still seem preferable. Fewer slick surfaces to leave shoe prints, DNA, etc.

The blood is definitely Nancy’s, but I suppose it could’ve been planted there for some reason. Maybe to seed the idea that she got into a car in the driveway but was taken via another route. Seems unlikely, but we don’t know (although LE might).
 
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