Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[factseeking]

If NG was the valuable thing sought, and not money, debit card, jewelry, etc. -- then it was either:
1. Failed kidnap for ransom plan
OR
2. Kidnap or murder for purpose of revenge, power plan.

I agree on these two options given the theory NG was the most valuable thing in that house. IMO, if this person just wanted money and valuables I'm betting there were other homes they could have broken into of people much wealthier in the area, including homes where the owners were out of town. They could have broken into those homes (or NGs home while she was not there) for money and valuables just like those thieves that break into athletes homes when they are out of town at games.

I'm firmly planted on this not being burglary gone wrong. JMO of course as always.

 

[submarine7]

I don’t think any of these make sense, I think it has to be an abduction in order to assault and murder with the motive being that the perp gets a thrill out it.

This seems one of the few possibilities given the evidence we know, but I think the ransom notes were legitimate. I believe LE does too or they would have outed all of the hoaxers. It could be for cruelty? The ransom notes and SG lead me to think it was kidnapping for ransom that failed. However, I see both these ideas here because I don't think anybody had plans or the ability to exchange NG for the Bitcoin received. In essence, she was killed because as a woman she's an easy target. I think it was total indifference and not a thrill.

JMO

 

[submarine7]

Sorry...I should have said Financial Power of Attorney with full monetary access. It's possible, just as it's possible for a trustee to steal the money from a trust fund. one example

It's possible for attorneys overseeing the trust but not people outside of the law office.
JMO

 

[factseeking]

Yes but what is the unsaid implication of his statement?

Lol @Marmlet I missed your eye roll would you like to share your thoughts?

 

[warp3dwing]

Assuming that a Kia vehicle is not a good match to the vehicle seen in the Ring video taken at 2:30 AM on Camino Real, I have tried to find a better match for the vehicle in this video. I started by using video frames taken from the Fox News video found at web site listed at the end of this comment.

The following method was then used to attempt to identify the vehicle in the video:

1) First, the playback speed was slowed down to 0.25x by clicking on the circular icon next to the speaker in the lower right hand corner of the video.
2) Then by starting and stopping the video many times to select different frames, individual frames were captured by a screen grab using a 1920x1080 pixel display and then pasted into a PowerPoint document. Figures 1 and 2 show the cropped vehicle portions of the four best frames captured.
View attachment 649093

View attachment 649094
3) The captured frames were then inspected to identify features representative of the side view of the vehicle:

1. Tail light shape
2. Front windshield slant angle
3. Door pillar slant angle
4. Roof flatness.

4) Then a Google search was made to obtain side views of various sedans and SUV’s that matched the representative features.

1. Lists of side views of generic vehicles were searched manually and the one with the closest patch to the observed features was selected. A search was then done using Google to match the generic photo and Google identified the best match as a Toyota Avensis or Toyota Corolla.
2. Lists of side views of actual vehicles from many manufacturers were searched manually and the Toyota vehicles were found again to be a good match. But two closer matches were found to be a 2003 BMW X3 and a 2022 BMW iX1 because they had a flatter roof than the Toyotas.
3. Photos of the vehicles identified:

View attachment 649095
The best match appears to be a 2003 BMW X3 or a 2022 BMW iX1. The color is difficult to identify because an IR camera does not distinguish colors faithfully. Therefore, the vehicle may be either white, gray, metallic, or a lighter shade of blue of green. But it is likely not a dark shade of color. The two Toyota vehicles identified look similar to the BMW vehicles from the side, but have a more rounded roof that does not match as closely the flatter roof line of the vehicle in the video. The BMW vehicles look more like an SUV while the Toyota vehicles are strictly sedans.

5) Comments on results:

1. The BMW vehicles identified were the best matches to the four features, but not a perfect match to the tail light shape feature. It is believed that a more extensive search may identify a vehicle having a better match to the tail light shape feature.
2. The manual searches in this study were limited to several hours by exhaustion of the searcher. Longer manual searches and/or computerized searches could possibly identify a better match to the features obtained from the vehicle in the video.

The video frames were taken from the Fox News video at Websleuths comment number 40,458 by Templeton on page 2023.

Really nice work! I remember there being some talk about vehicles with black rims possibly being focused on, but that’s never officially come from LE.

 

[submarine7]

The bite light was definitely an interesting choice. I had initially assumed this was risky due to the possible depositing of saliva, but now I’m not so sure.

I can’t find a single frame in the video where we can see the bite light directly or the suspect’s mouth open, unless I’m missing something. The closest we seem to get is while he’s futzing with the lantana. In one frame, we see his lips fully closed. The next frame is too dark to see much. And the frame after that, the light is on. Not once can I see his mouth opening to a substantial extent. (I had wondered if he was wearing one of those silkscreened mesh masks, but I think that might be obvious in the IR light.)

If the suspect subdued Nancy without saying a word, the light may not have needed to leave his mouth.

Maybe he has a Tyvek suit on underneath. This wouldn’t prevent touch DNA from his clothing from rubbing off, but it would prevent things like body hair from being deposited. Considering LE doesn’t seem to have a full DNA profile of the suspect, he must’ve done something very right. Seems unusually fastidious for a casual burglar.

It’s hard to know where the line is between luck and smarts here!

Agree. I also can't see this person being whacked out on drugs and achieving this. It seems like a lot of luck if that's the case.

 

[SlimPickens]

To point one the underlying premise is that he is an unsophisticated low IQ criminal/associate. He doesn't think like you or me, or other people. In many cases I have seen you get tweakers doing unnecessary and overly-convoluted poor choices that dig them in a deeper hole, for instance. I have said that I think his entire "mentality" in his get up more or less exhibits that. Also it was just a suggestion, as I also mentioned that he could have roughed her up on blood thinners and killed her inadvertently that way or in many other scenarios. I am also not discounting other activity that may have been done to her in such a scenario that would make the criminal think he needs to get rid of the body (SA, DNA transfer, etc.).

As for your second point we don't know any of that, but sure, maybe.. This case being so high profile along with the President's personal attention can warrant the feds (who have still not take official point on this case, and the president himself has discussed this). It is still officially just a missing person's case and had it not been SG's mom and played out in the media I think we could all agree it would get very different resources/attention.

I don't disagree with point 1. We have indeed seen some unwise and at time bizarre decision-making from dumb criminals (and even smart ones under load).

I wouldn't necessarily disagree with your second point either if information flow, optics, and primary execution of investigatory matters wouldn't have shifted so dramatically and in the direction of the FBI. One thing we regularly see in cases on here is that the FBI assists locals A LOT. But when locals have and maintain the reins because the crime is assumed to be a state matter, there tends to be more press conferences so that local elected officials can seize the national exposure and so that they can assure the citizens in their respective communities that they are competent and on the hunt. That notion and those optics ceased rather quickly as the investigation went into another direction.

Now we have no information other than conjecture and purported leaks, the sheriff has become so irrelevant that he went on a media tour and now is essentially mum, and the presence of federal prosecutors on site the other day along with a local homicide detective shows us who is likely leading in the overall assumption (and evidence) of what happened, and the local homicide detective being there to build a case to prosecute the (now peripheral) potential state component in all of this.

This is all JMO and perceptions of things I see with the same information that you and I both have (which isn't much). It doesn't mean I'm correct by any stretch, nor would I bet more than a nickel that I was.

 

[warp3dwing]

Couple of issues with this theory:

1. The notion that if NG had a cardiac event or passed away during the crime that that would be reason enough to remove her from the home and that said event couldn't have otherwise been covered up rather easily without her removal. Even if she was alarmed and got out of her bed and nothing was done to her other than physically hitting/restraining her it could've been staged to appear and otherwise explained away as a fall. So why escalate it and make it far more complicated for yourself by removing her body to make it an obvious crime?

2. The feds have essentially assumed the larger parts of this case, and perhaps have taken it over altogether. Federal warrants issued by federal judges along with federal prosecutors appearing on site, no press conferences and little information flow since the FBI became involved, and the Sheriff now being managed/stifled and relegated to a mumbling sideshow, indicate that there is likely compelling evidence that this is a federal crime.

And burglaries gone wrong aren't federal crimes.

JMO.

I’m of the opinion that the suspect video, and later the removal of the camera itself at some point, happened before the suspect entered the house. If it had been a burglary and the suspect was able to enter through the back undetected, why bother with the Nest cam at all?

I’m not aware of any large valuables in the house that would require a shorter path to a vehicle. His backpack was a measly 25L.

Had he already been inside and accidentally killed Nancy, wouldn’t he open the front door from the inside and grab the camera without appearing on video? Instead, he comes around from the side and walks right up to it. He doesn’t seem rushed or particularly flustered, and he doesn’t appear to have any blood stains. We get a VERY good look at the fabric of his jacket, too.

I think he had the whole scene prepped and staged, then grabbed Nancy and left in just a few minutes.

 

[abanddb123]

I see no rational reason to take NG. ( except if he had sex with her and then too much other DNA could be around besides semen). Taking NG dead or alive in any other scenario was a liability for him. A lot of work.. Ransom demand was authentic and it WAS from the perp. He never really wanted it, imo. He wanted the attention and the repartee from SG. Not money, not jewelry, not cash or credit cards. NG was his reason for being there. He went home with his trophy. Everything else was a plus in his mind. JMO

Or, maybe it was murder for hire, I don't even know if this is what I think, but when u murder, a person hides it. Of course jmo.

 

[Homey]

Or, maybe it was murder for hire, I don't even know if this is what I think, but when u murder, a person hides it. Of course jmo.

I don’t normally participate in these but I feel like you do. I believe it is possible that SG has a competitor for her job… Normally show business people keep tract of the kids etc so they went after Mom who would be a easier target. She did question for a while her return to her job.

 

[submarine7]

Somebody pointed out yesterday that a second person enters the frame in the video as PG is messing with the camera and I agree. There's absolutely a flashlight that appears on his left side. There were at least two people there.

 

[annpats]

It’s hard to know where the line is between luck and smarts here!

I think, for me, that is the main problem with this case!

I've always been unsure how professional and top-level these perps are. I wax and wane on it.

Did they choose the owner and home carefully, for kidnap and ransom, not exposing DNA, ....or did they brake into a random wealthy home to rob it, it went wrong, and they somehow got lucky on all counts.

But who gets lucky on all counts.....no fingerprints, no DNA, no footprints, no decent CCTV footage, no witnesses, no vehicles sighted, no body found.

That's beyond lucky, and that's what makes me think they are professional.

MOO.

 

[SMK777]

I think he had the whole scene prepped and staged, then grabbed Nancy and left in just a few minutes.

Likely with an accomplice?

 

[annpats]

Likely with an accomplice?

At the very minimum you'd need someone else to drive the getaway car and/or help with a body

 

[SMK777]

I think, for me, that is the main problem with this case! I don't know how professional and top-level these peeps are, choosing the owner and home carefully, for kidnap and ransom, not exposing DNA, ....or if they broke into a wealthy home, to rob, it went wrong, and they've got lucky on all counts.

But who gets lucky on all counts.....no fingerprints, no DNA, no footprints, no decent CCTV footage, no witnesses, no vehicles sighted, no body found.

That's beyond lucky! It makes me think professional!

MOO.

Right, every time I reflect on:
* how famous and wealthy Savannah is,
* the technology and surveillance we have in 2026,
*the footage caught of the masked man,
* the involvement of the President and the senator SG consulted;
*add to that the FBI and 400 assigned agents
*and enormous media coverage and massive social media involvement ---

How is this suspect/s not caught after nearly a month of the above? I certainly would be terrified of discovery if I had to commit a crime with all of that working against me

 

[VTHOMM]

Likely with an accomplice?

All I know is after reviewing all sorts of info today, I am doing a u-turn and my thoughts are going back to my orginal theory of who/m may have orchrestrated this. I think LE may have a pretty good idea but they are going to be sure they have their i's dotted and t's crossed.

 

[joe jones]

I agree on these two options given the theory NG was the most valuable thing in that house. IMO, if this person just wanted money and valuables I'm betting there were other homes they could have broken into of people much wealthier in the area, including homes where the owners were out of town. They could have broken into those homes (or NGs home while she was not there) for money and valuables just like those thieves that break into athletes homes when they are out of town at games.

I'm firmly planted on this not being burglary gone wrong. JMO of course as always.

what if he had no idea who lived there, I have seen too many terrifying creeper videos from that area, lots of men seem to be wandering around in the middle of the night, trespassing onto property, trying doors, looking for stuff to steal, NG house was ideal for a creeper burglar, set back from the road, not overlooked, plenty of trees, foliage and bushes to hide in, and her house does look wealthy, its huge, so the burglary/assault/murder theory has always fit better than the taking of an 84 year old woman in poor health, having to keep her well and alive for however long ransom negotiations went on for, plus it would help if you actually worked out how to ransom her before taking her,

 

[SMK777]

All I know is after reviewing all sorts of info today, I am doing a u-turn and my thoughts are going back to my orginal theory of who/m may have orchrestrated this. I think LE may have a pretty good idea but they are going to be sure they have their i's dotted and t's crossed.

What was your original theory?
Sure hope you're right on your last sentence!

 

[annpats]

what if he had no idea who lived there, I have seen too many terrifying creeper videos from that area, lots of men seem to be wandering around in the middle of the night, trespassing onto property, trying doors, looking for stuff to steal, NG house was ideal for a creeper burglar, set back from the road, not overlooked, plenty of trees, foliage and bushes to hide in, and her house does look wealthy, its huge, so the burglary/assault/murder theory has always fit better than the taking of an 84 year old woman in poor health, having to keep her well and alive for however long ransom negotiations went on for, plus it would help if you actually worked out how to ransom her before taking her,

But don't you think a random creeper trying his luck would have left more evidence, like a footprint in the dirt, etc.

 

[GrannySheri]

ok I thought the vehicle was ruled out as being relevant by LE? is this accurate or did I miss something (which is easy to do)

There was an article posted by TMZ stating their LE sources claimed that it wasn't related to the case but then FBI showed up at the home where that video was taken.
JMO

"Video obtained by Fox News Digital is part of the investigation into Guthrie’s abduction, the Pima County Sheriff’s Department said. Authorities said it remains unclear whether the footage is relevant to the case."

Nancy Guthrie disappearance: Ring camera video from neighbor gives investigators fresh lead

A resident in the Catalina Foothills neighborhood shared Ring camera video that showed 12 cars passing by on the morning Nancy Guthrie's suspected abduction, the 84-year-old mother of NBC "Today" host Savannah Guthrie went missing from her Tucson, Arizona, home on Feb. 1.

www.foxnews.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027182908897956111