• #41,361
Young men don't watch The Today Show. Middle aged working men don't watch the Today Show. Burglars don't watch the Today Show. Psychopathic run of the mill kidnappers don't watch the Today Show. Sure, one of these types may have seen the Today Show in passing while switching between channels a time or two, but it isn't very likely that when either of them did he just happened upon the segment with Nancy. And even if one of these types did happen on that segment, it isn't likely that they would consider the two of them 'prime pickens' for a payday when there are far more wealthy folks worth far more money, who are far more easily available, and who are far easier to manage in captivity. And probably even in Tucson. And perhaps even close by.

So what in the world is going on here? Why in the world did the perpetrator choose Savannah to fleece and how? And, most importantly, how did he arrive at that conclusion, and from where?
snipped by me. Probably not entirely true the men you described don't watch the Today show. He quite possibly watches the Today show with his mother. Formed an attachment there for SG. Now everything becomes blurred. He really resents his mother. He's still at home she dominates EVERYTHING, even the TV.

He murdered one person that night literally and one figurately. jmo
 
  • #41,362
This is not a random opportunist's crime. She was targeted. And not just FBI-defined targeted, but specifically targeted. And not just specifically targeted, but specifically targeted for kidnapping. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping, but for all intents and purposes she was specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom, but specifically targeted for kidnapping and a $6 million dollar ransom.

Going with this as the underlying assumption and likely motive, we can posit:

Nancy doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does it isn't something that would be known or implied. She's 84, lives in the same house she's lived in for 40 years, drives an Outback (I think), and at 84 is in the denouement of her 'society' life and her routine now is more mahjong and video church with a few close friends.

Annie doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does there isn't any indication that she or her husband live that way. Like her mom, she has a normal to quasi-upscale home in a nicely manicured neighborhood and with normal non-luxury cars in the garage. We're not talking mansion and there is no obvious rich here either.

So that leaves one person with the means to satisfy a ransom demand that substantial - Savannah.

Young men don't watch The Today Show. Middle aged working men don't watch the Today Show. Burglars don't watch the Today Show. Psychopathic run of the mill kidnappers don't watch the Today Show. Sure, one of these types may have seen the Today Show in passing while switching between channels a time or two, but it isn't very likely that when he did he just happened upon the segment with Nancy. And even if one of these types did happen onto that segment, it isn't likely that he would consider the two of them 'prime pickens' for a payday when there are far more wealthy folks worth far more money, who are far more easily available, and who are far easier to manage in captivity. And probably even in Tucson. And perhaps even close by.

So what in the world is going on here? Why in the world did the perpetrator choose Savannah to fleece? And, most importantly, how did he arrive at that conclusion, and from whence?

JMO.
Excellent point. Since it is unlikely that the perpetrator knew SG through The Today Show, how did the perp know of SG?

Previous encounter in Tucson? Dated or in a relationship with SG and she ended it? Somebody who felt spurned by SG? A former neighbor, co-worker, fellow student, acquaintance or former boyfriend with seriously unresolved anger, hurt and rage toward SG?

What happened for the perp to decide to destroy SG through abducting and/or killing her mother?

This seems very personal. To plan and execute this crime, the perp was full of rage toward SG and determined to get revenge by hurting SG in the worse possible manner.

JMO
 
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  • #41,363
True, and if the perp has some background in crime, maybe a former associate could call in.

But people who know the perp may not recognise those eyes if the perp isn’t seen as the type. The Mangione case had massive publicity, and the photos were good enough to allow someone who didn’t know him to recognise him from a photograph, but I don’t think anyone who knew him had called in his name beforehand. And plenty of people knew him – he had friends and family. I think that’s significant.

This video isn’t good enough for someone who doesn’t know the perp to recognise him, so that avenue is out.

Agree. I'd say this case is unique only in that the public does have a fair shot at helping to identify this perpetrator even though he isn't really identifiable from the video. It would probably stem mostly from the myriad of collective data mining deep dives and subsequent theorizing. Just one unseen and/or overlooked nugget found by a member of the public could be the one that helps to break the case.

Provided, of course, that the person even lives here.

JMO.
 
  • #41,364
Agree. I'd say this case is unique only in that the public does have a fair shot at helping to identify this perpetrator even though he isn't really identifiable from the video. It would probably stem mostly from the myriad of collective data mining deep dives and subsequent theorizing. Just one unseen and/or overlooked nugget found by a member of the public could be the one that helps to break the case.

Provided, of course, that the person even lives here.

JMO.
Here as in Arizona? The United States?

And yes, I agree - the person could be from anywhere and could have been on his/her way back to anywhere by the time 911 was called the next day.

JMO/MOO
 
  • #41,365
Here as in Arizona? The United States?

And yes, I agree - the person could be from anywhere and could have been on his/her way back to anywhere by the time 911 was called the next day.

JMO/MOO

Sorry, yes, the US. If he lives in the US, he will likely be caught, and perhaps even by the slightest nugget of information from the horde of online sleuths.

JMO.
 
  • #41,366
snipped by me. Probably not entirely true the men you described don't watch the Today show. He quite possibly watches the Today show with his mother. Formed an attachment there for SG. Now everything becomes blurred. He really resents his mother. He's still at home she dominates EVERYTHING, even the TV.

He murdered one person that night literally and one figurately. jmo

I have not discounted the 'unhealthy attachment to Mother' theory, but I've thought of it not along the lines of his becoming a an obsessed and delusional SG acolyte but rather a justice collector for his unyielding Mom - incessant with her demands - and who perhaps ruminates over a decades long grievance with Nancy. In that scenario, there would likely have been a (relatively) recent trigger, and her persistent ruminations about revenge more and more grandiose, and more and more necessary.

JMO.
 
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  • #41,367
Excellent point. Since it is unlikely that the perpetrator knew SG through The Today Show, how did the perp know of SG?

Previous encounter in Tucson? Dated or in a relationship with SG and she ended it? Somebody who felt spurned by SG? A former neighbor, co-worker, fellow student, acquaintance or former boyfriend with seriously unresolved anger, hurt and rage toward SG?

What happened for the perp to decide to destroy SG through abducting and/or killing her mother?

This seems very personal. To plan and execute this crime, the perp was full of rage toward SG and determined to get revenge by hurting SG in the worse possible manner.

JMO
I don't think we can consider SG without factoring in her fame on the Today show but that doesn't mean the perp watched the show.

SG moved away from Tucson over 30 years ago so it's hard to imagine a man still bitter about a break up etc. it's tough because she's universally liked. I can't imagine what she could have done.

It seems like jealousy is the only viable motive, unless it's somebody who's been stewing over some imagined slight all these years. I agree it seems very personal and bizarre. Every thought I have collapses in on itself. I hope she's found soon.
 
  • #41,368
I have not discounted the 'unhealthy attachment to Mother' theory, but I've thought of it not along the lines of his becoming a an obsessed and delusional SG acolyte but rather a justice collector for his unyielding Mom - incessant with her demands - and who perhaps ruminates over a decades long grievance with Nancy. In that scenario, there would likely have been a (relatively) recent trigger, and her persistent ruminations about revenge more and more grandiose and more and more necessary.

JMO.
This sounds very Adelson like.
 
  • #41,369
DBM
 
  • #41,370
This is not a random opportunist's crime. She was targeted. And not just FBI-defined targeted, but specifically targeted. And not just specifically targeted, but specifically targeted for kidnapping. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping, but for all intents and purposes she was specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom, but specifically targeted for kidnapping and a $6 million dollar ransom.

Going with this as the underlying assumption and likely motive, we can posit:

Nancy doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does it isn't something that would be known or implied. She's 84, lives in the same house she's lived in for 40 years, drives an Outback (I think), and at 84 is in the denouement of her 'society' life and her routine now is more mahjong and video church with a few close friends.

Annie doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does there isn't any indication that she or her husband live that way. Like her mom, she has a normal to quasi-upscale home in a nicely manicured neighborhood and with normal non-luxury cars in the garage. We're not talking mansion and there is no obvious rich here either.

So that leaves one person with the means to satisfy a ransom demand that substantial - Savannah.

Young men don't watch The Today Show. Middle aged working men don't watch the Today Show. Burglars don't watch the Today Show. Psychopathic run of the mill kidnappers don't watch the Today Show. Sure, one of these types may have seen the Today Show in passing while switching between channels a time or two, but it isn't very likely that when he did he just happened upon the segment with Nancy. And even if one of these types did happen onto that segment, it isn't likely that he would consider the two of them 'prime pickens' for a payday when there are far more wealthy folks worth far more money, who are far more easily available, and who are far easier to manage in captivity. And probably even in Tucson. And perhaps even close by.

So what in the world is going on here? Why in the world did the perpetrator choose Savannah to fleece? And, most importantly, how did he arrive at that conclusion, and from whence?

JMO.

I think it is far more simple that this is nothing to do with Savannah. Perp wanted to abduct, assault and murder someone, assessed a few people to see who would be suitable, found NG to be isolated and vulnerable. The ransom demand is from an opportunist.
 
  • #41,371
Last night on BEs show, he mentioned there is construction on NGs street. I believe he said two houses going up? Anyways, that was the first I heard that and it naturally made me wonder about the workers.
Good morning, just a quick post. If there was construction near by then I would guess that there were surveyors out there beforehand too. That’s one way to scope out a house I suppose. Moo
 
  • #41,372
This is not a random opportunist's crime. She was targeted. And not just FBI-defined targeted, but specifically targeted. And not just specifically targeted, but specifically targeted for kidnapping. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping, but for all intents and purposes she was specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom, but specifically targeted for kidnapping and a $6 million dollar ransom.

Going with this as the underlying assumption and likely motive, we can posit:

Nancy doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does it isn't something that would be known or implied. She's 84, lives in the same house she's lived in for 40 years, drives an Outback (I think), and at 84 is in the denouement of her 'society' life and her routine now is more mahjong and video church with a few close friends.

Annie doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does there isn't any indication that she or her husband live that way. Like her mom, she has a normal to quasi-upscale home in a nicely manicured neighborhood and with normal non-luxury cars in the garage. We're not talking mansion and there is no obvious rich here either.

So that leaves one person with the means to satisfy a ransom demand that substantial - Savannah.

Young men don't watch The Today Show. Middle aged working men don't watch the Today Show. Burglars don't watch the Today Show. Psychopathic run of the mill kidnappers don't watch the Today Show. Sure, one of these types may have seen the Today Show in passing while switching between channels a time or two, but it isn't very likely that when he did he just happened upon the segment with Nancy. And even if one of these types did happen onto that segment, it isn't likely that he would consider the two of them 'prime pickens' for a payday when there are far more wealthy folks worth far more money, who are far more easily available, and who are far easier to manage in captivity. And probably even in Tucson. And perhaps even close by.

So what in the world is going on here? Why in the world did the perpetrator choose Savannah to fleece? And, most importantly, how did he arrive at that conclusion, and from whence?

JMO.
I have mostly discounted the ransoms as hoaxes, but IF the 6 million was the whole point of this, I cannot discount the possibility that politics, revenge and greed could be motives. Perhaps the perps were hired for the mission and could be from anywhere, and whoever hired them expected that NBC would pay the ransom. Stranger things have happened. JMO
 
  • #41,373
Theoretically, I wondered if perp’s mum died because he couldn’t afford medical care for her and then Nancy’s mum tv programme came at a coincidental time to nurse a grudge and spur action. Some people cannot abide other people’s happiness.
 
  • #41,374
This is not a random opportunist's crime. She was targeted. And not just FBI-defined targeted, but specifically targeted. And not just specifically targeted, but specifically targeted for kidnapping. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping, but for all intents and purposes she was specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom. And not just specifically targeted for kidnapping for ransom, but specifically targeted for kidnapping and a $6 million dollar ransom.

Going with this as the underlying assumption and likely motive, we can posit:

Nancy doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does it isn't something that would be known or implied. She's 84, lives in the same house she's lived in for 40 years, drives an Outback (I think), and at 84 is in the denouement of her 'society' life and her routine now is more mahjong and video church with a few close friends.

Annie doesn't have 6 million dollars, or if she does there isn't any indication that she or her husband live that way. Like her mom, she has a normal to quasi-upscale home in a nicely manicured neighborhood and with normal non-luxury cars in the garage. We're not talking mansion and there is no obvious rich here either.

So that leaves one person with the means to satisfy a ransom demand that substantial - Savannah.

Young men don't watch The Today Show. Middle aged working men don't watch the Today Show. Burglars don't watch the Today Show. Psychopathic run of the mill kidnappers don't watch the Today Show. Sure, one of these types may have seen the Today Show in passing while switching between channels a time or two, but it isn't very likely that when he did he just happened upon the segment with Nancy. And even if one of these types did happen onto that segment, it isn't likely that he would consider the two of them 'prime pickens' for a payday when there are far more wealthy folks worth far more money, who are far more easily available, and who are far easier to manage in captivity. And probably even in Tucson. And perhaps even close by.

So what in the world is going on here? Why in the world did the perpetrator choose Savannah to fleece? And, most importantly, how did he arrive at that conclusion, and from whence?

JMO.
1. Could be an opportunistic local. Workman or service provider (or one of their friends/family) who happened to see the pictures of NG and SG while in the home. Big TV celebrity must have lots of money. This is their chance for a big pay day.

2. Or someone who saw the recent TV show with SG and NG. Thought there is a weak link in terms of security. Easy to snag $6M.
 
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  • #41,375
IMHO, Anger and revenge. Look at SG's past. Ex something or other. Boyfriend, husband, friend (male or female) This was personal.
I also think it was deliberate, targeted & personal. And I think if the reason for that could be established, it would considerably lower the field.

I don’t watch SG’s show, but I gather she has a pretty huge audience and I gather could be considered to be quite influential / wield a certain amount of power.

Is it possible that perhaps through her Show, something or someone has been ‘brought down’ . Has an enquiry been launched, a crime or dodgy behavior exposed; has someone lost their previous position of power or luxury or has she exposed someone ( Epstein associates etc )

JMO. MOO
 
  • #41,376
DBM
 
  • #41,377
I go back and forth. The more I look into this the more I start to think that this was one individual and he is sort of going of the playbook of EARONS. There are a lot of similarities. Starting with the ski mask, extra clothing covering whole body, location choice, recon, mouth flashlight etc... He may not be doing it for the same reason, but maybe he was taking the playbook of one of the most successful ever to never get recognized. Maybe NG was an easy 1st target because of her age, and with her house set back so far and all of the homes being somewhat off the main road. But then I think, why would he go after somebody who is the mother of a celebrity if you are trying to be so safe and covering all your bases like that? You would have to know that it would get media attention, I don't think one would imagine it would get the amount that it has received, but you must be smart enough to know it would garner more than you would want. SO that brings me back to Nancy was a deliberate target. So like I said, I go back and forth.
Perp knew there would be attention, fame, money from this crime. Maybe he wanted all of that.
 
  • #41,378
So i believe this was way more planned out than people are giving the perp(s) credit for, down to the to the fullest moon of the month. From what I am reading, the difference between a full moon and a 1/4 moon in the Arizona desert is enormous. Obvious not good at the scene of the crime, but if there was a plan to do something afterward in the desert terrain, where moon is the only light you have, the more light the better. There is baby cactus plants everywhere, wildlife, scorpions.
This makes me think it was someone local. An outsider may not understand the darkness issue in Tucson?
 
  • #41,379
I haven't seen an answer to my question about the Huffpost as a source, but I'm going to take a gamble. We had been discussing whether there was forced entry and if there was any blood found in the house, this article says that it was forced entry and there was blood in the house. It's dated very early on, February 3rd. Please flag my post if this is not a legitimate source to be sharing.

"Investigators found blood and signs of forced entry in the home of Nancy Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, the Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday."
If this is true, then it rules out the idea she was snatched at the front door.
 
  • #41,380
I also think it was deliberate, targeted & personal. And I think if the reason for that could be established, it would considerably lower the field.

I don’t watch SG’s show, but I gather she has a pretty huge audience and I gather could be considered to be quite influential / wield a certain amount of power.

Is it possible that perhaps through her Show, something or someone has been ‘brought down’ . Has an enquiry been launched, a crime or dodgy behavior exposed; has someone lost their previous position of power or luxury or has she exposed someone ( Epstein associates etc )

JMO. MOO
Semi jokingly, Matt Lauer has entered the thread.

Hoping and praying this IS the week they find Nancy and bring her home. Prayers for Nancy and family and all the people working this case. There’re gonna find who did this and bring her home! ❤️

Hope you all have a really wonderful day today and an abundantly blessed week ahead of you.
 
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