Nancy Guthrie, 84, (mother of TODAY Show host Savannah Guthrie) missing - last seen in the Catalina foothills area on Jan 31, 2026

[Kapua]

Even a bright, talented, highly educated non criminal is going to make mistakes. Like the vascular surgeon who killed the Tepe's.

I agree, we can no longer say that in the Guthrie case the perp is a kid, a druggie, an impulse crime, a street person, inexperienced, etc. You don't evade the FBI and 400 agents for this long if that were the case?

Most first time criminals, no matter how smart, make mistakes. So I am going to guess this is the not the first crime the guy has committed. At the least he had to do some dry runs, practice sessions.

Yes a methodical person. Meticulous about detail. Planned it carefully ahead of time. Often first time criminals plan the crime itself but not the exit plan. This guy planned it all looks like.

<modsnip>

The guy in this case is a careful thinker, but wider in scope that most deep thinkers. There are a lot of moving parts to this crime, many different pieces and he appears to have done well with all of them. Perhaps there is more than one person involved.

There were many things that worked in favor of the criminal - a dark neighborhood with houses spaced far apart. The houses are set back from the road, so cars on the roads would not be captured by cameras mounted on the houses. A victim who was easy to overcome. The victim's camera video was not saved (but fortunately, experts were able to reconstruct a portion of it). If I were a neighbor, I would be upgrading my security system yesterday. The neighbors should all get together and install cameras on every road going into and out of the neighborhood. The whole world now knows how vulnerable they are. All the criminal needed to do to pull this off is not bring his cell phone with him. I can't say he's smart, but I do think he is observant. MOO

 

[Napoli]

No I do not think an academic. I would be quite surprised if this were the case. People who spent most of their life in graduate or professional school could not have pulled off this crime. They are brilliant in a few narrow areas, but clueless about the rest of the world. And have missed out on a lot of social media and pop culture. They don't have street smarts because they never had time to be on the street with their wider peer group. You can see how this hurt the Tepe murderer.

Academics Convicted of Murder Lets' add Ted Kaczynski to this too

• Bryan Kohberger (2022–Present): A Ph.D. student in criminology at Washington State University, he was arrested for the stabbing deaths of four University of Idaho students and pleaded guilty in 2025.
• Wyndham Lathem (2017): A Northwestern University microbiology professor who, along with Oxford University employee Andrew Warren, was charged with the murder of a man in Chicago.
• Valery Fabrikant (1992): A mechanical engineering professor at Concordia University in Montreal who shot and killed four colleagues.
• John Webster (1849): A Harvard Medical School chemistry professor who murdered a prominent Boston physician over a debt, a case famous for its use of circumstantial evidence.
• Bruce Reilly (1990s): Convicted of murder as a young man, he later became an academic, researcher, and law school graduate working on criminal justice reform.

High IQ people are often profoundly isolated in social life. Isolated doesnt mean they aren't street smart . You dont have to be raised on the street to out think LE. Plus, look at all the bazillions of abductions and murders that have not been solved.

A blanket statement like this perp isnt an academic because he was too busy in school doesnt compute for me. Lots of serial killers are whacko nurses, for example. Years in school. Decide to inject some substance in people to enjoy the thrill of the code blue or the control over life and death. Evil is Evil. Unsolved crimes abound. This perp is smarter or at least more goal oriented than the average Joe. JMO

 

[VegasGirl35]

Following the case on this forum, I've enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts and theories, and have learned so much. I'm curious though, if/when they find the perpetrator(s), do you guys think it's going to end up being super obvious or someone that'll shock the world?

I just keep thinking of all the true crime shows I've watched where the killer was someone nobody suspected.

 

[moonglow123]

There were many things that worked in favor of the criminal - a dark neighborhood with houses spaced far apart. The houses are set back from the road, so cars on the roads would not be captured by cameras mounted on the houses. A victim who was easy to overcome. The victim's camera video was not saved (but fortunately, expert were able to reconstruct a portion of it). If I were a neighbor, I would be upgrading my security system yesterday. The neighbors should all get together and install cameras on every road going into and out of the neighborhood. The whole world now knows how vulnerable they are. All the criminal needed to do to pull this off is not bring his cell phone with him. I can't say he's smart, but I do think he is observant. MOO

Yeah. No one could’ve predicted that this would be happen. But I know if I were one of her neighbors I’d be racing to put up security cams by the road!

It’s crazy that he’s gotten away with this so far simply because the neighborhoods are so dark and getting camera footage of passing vehicles is spotty or impossible.

 

[FaviousM]

Following the case on this forum, I've enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts and theories, and have learned so much. I'm curious though, if/when they find the perpetrator(s), do you guys think it's going to end up being super obvious or someone that'll shock the world?

I just keep thinking of all the true crime shows I've watched where the killer was someone nobody suspected.

I think it'll be 'someone nobody expected' in the sense that it wont be anyone we currently know of connected with this case.

But once they're arrested, I don't expect there'll anything too surprising about the type of person who committed the crime, they'll undoubtedly have the same traits we see again and again in criminals

I'm sure the perp will look very obvious to us in hindsight, but hindsight is 20/20

 

[katydid23]

Wouldn't that be something if NG were part of a larger group of abductions.

Very odd, and don't know what to make of it but as you say LE must be aware of the situation.

Utah's Department of Public Safety said that investigators used license plate cameras and other tools to track Miller through southern Utah, into Northern Arizona and eventually into Colorado in one of the victim's vehicles. Colorado law enforcement found it abandoned in Pagosa Springs. After a brief search, Colorado law enforcement took the suspect into custody without incident, the department said.

Ivan MillerArchuleta County S

 

[ab01]

Following the case on this forum, I've enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts and theories, and have learned so much. I'm curious though, if/when they find the perpetrator(s), do you guys think it's going to end up being super obvious or someone that'll shock the world?

I just keep thinking of all the true crime shows I've watched where the killer was someone nobody suspected.

I think it’s going to be someone obvious and local probably from NG’s own neighborhood.

I think there may have been issues early on bc they were in an area where they had reason to be.

I don’t think it will be surprising but probably not a name we have heard so far in the investigation.

Investigators have spent a copious amount of time scouring the neighborhood and talking to neighbors. It very well could be they just keep looking for video and asking if anyone saw anything by interviewing them multiple times hoping someone will remember something significant.

But I just keep getting the feeling it’s more than that. I really believe investigators are convinced it’s someone in close proximity to NG’s home.

 

[Napoli]

Following the case on this forum, I've enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts and theories, and have learned so much. I'm curious though, if/when they find the perpetrator(s), do you guys think it's going to end up being super obvious or someone that'll shock the world?

I just keep thinking of all the true crime shows I've watched where the killer was someone nobody suspected.

I don't think it's going to be anyone "famous" . It will be someone who is a nice guy but a few associates might say, "ya know, there was always some thing about Joe Blow that made me think there was more to him than met the eye. Something just a tiny bit off. Maybe he was living in his mother's basement to pay off his student loans but i dont know..Kind of too intense or something..." JMO

 

[katydid23]

It was an elderly woman killed in her home and two hikers killed out on a trail

They caught the guy it's totally unrelated. So sad. I didn't realize how often elderly woman are victims of violent crime.

Are we sure it is totally unrelated? He was tracked driving through Arizona. And he looks very similar to the potential suspect. imo

 

[SlimPickens]

Some of the assertions from retired FBI agents are disappointing. I've noticed that some are cautious, while others are anything but. Oh well.

There was a renowned former FBI profiler and OG contributor to the show Criminal Minds who went on a vlog the other day and definitively said that this criminal was unsophisticated and had to have left DNA all over the house based solely on his observation of what he was wearing in a 15 second infrared video from a front door camera. He repeated that notion throughout the interview.

Okay, well where is it?

Kohlburger wore similar garb if I recall correctly, and only left the tiniest hint of DNA on a sheath. And he bludgeoned and left his victims in the home!

It's the age-old 'overestimating my aptitude and abilities, underestimating yours' logical fallacy on full display.

JMO.

 

[turaj]

This might have been reported already here but SG back in NYC. Boy she is strong.

 

[SMK777]

But I just keep getting the feeling it’s more than that. I really believe investigators are convinced it’s someone in close proximity to NG’s home.

It wouldn't be the first time a suspect was found to be a neighbor. Time will tell.

 

[buffalogal]

Or do you mean the perp was said to be overly dramatic and exaggerated?

I am trying to understand what people are describing.

I think they mean the first time the perp appears without the backpack, standing in front of the camera being deliberately menacing. The theory has been mentioned, and I agree, that he was testing the camera. He wanted to know if anyone was monitoring it, whether they recieved alerts that a person had been detected. Dressed like he was, if NG or anyone had been paying attention, they would have been calling 911, or at least turning on lights in the house and calling a neighbor or family member. If they had, it was a dark, moonless night, so they would have just slipped back into the darkness to watch. But nothing happened. The camera check/dress rehersal went well (for him), and I also think he showed up early the second time, just to double check the security. He got close enough to alert the camera, waited to be sure no one inside does anything, then went ahead with the abduction.

 

[SMK777]

Utah's Department of Public Safety said that investigators used license plate cameras and other tools to track Miller through southern Utah, into Northern Arizona and eventually into Colorado in one of the victim's vehicles. Colorado law enforcement found it abandoned in Pagosa Springs. After a brief search, Colorado law enforcement took the suspect into custody without incident, the department said.

Ivan MillerArchuleta County S

Is there anything online about checking out any possible connection? Very young suspect....The MO of vehicle theft seems different, though.

 

[snarast]

I definitely could see the perp being a male wearing heavy disguise. Multiple masks, fake mustache or goatee, gloves and extra body padding. Maybe that's why he seemed to have some trouble bending down to scoop the lantana up.

I just get the feeling he was 'playing to the camera'. Does anyone else think that? Standing there without the backpack in the shadows in one image looking so menacing, and from the vid clip...walking up from the sidewalk with almost a swagger, the c r o t c h gun holster. WTH? Making an overly showy scene for someone who is there to rob and kidnap, typically stealth and discretion would be key here IMO. IDK, I've overthought this whole scenario way too much.
View attachment 650381


JMO

Yes. A crotch gun. It’s kinda nuts when you think about it.

 

[TGFsleuth]

I doubt your theory only because of what, I believe, SG has said of her mother. About how much she loved the land and the place of Tucson-- and how many years she's been there. People who feel that way like the dark sky ordinances and defend them. They have motion sensor lights if they have outdoor lighting and/or are very sensitive to neighbors and placement etc. Of course, this is a generalization but in my experience, imo, it has been true. Outsiders are the ones who come in and want things to be different. Brighter, greener, louder, more trees. (Welcome to WS.)

Thanks for the welcome. I have been racking my brain trying to comprehend the why which might help lead to the who. I do think Nancy was specifically targeted and that some time and effort went into avoiding detection. I also speculate that the bad actor(s) are not the usual type, e.g. not cartel, not burglary gone wrong. It appears that whoever is behind this knows the territory/neighborhood - is comfortable in a place that is remote and dark so maybe someone nearby with an axe to grind? I just read on here that LE is going house to house in the neighborhood. Glad for this.

 

[Napoli]

There was a renowned former FBI profiler and OG contributor to the show Criminal Minds who went on a vlog the other day and definitively said that this criminal was unsophisticated and had to have left DNA all over the house based solely on his observation of what he was wearing in a 15 second infrared video from a front door camera. He repeated that notion throughout the interview.

Okay, well where is it?

Kohlburger wore similar garb if I recall correctly, and only left the tiniest hint of DNA on a sheath. And he bludgeoned and left his victims in the home!

It's the age-old 'overestimating my aptitude and abilities, underestimating yours' logical fallacy on full display.

JMO.

Let me add to my theory of an academic type perp or at least a well schooled one.

10 Deadly University & College Professors

Professors fill a highly regarded role in society, being seen as trusted and learned professionals. They are also viewed as typically non-violent and progressive individuals, with high intellectual acumen, self control and integrity. Yet, stereotypes of occasional “mad professors” sometimes come...

www.toptenz.net

Also FBI stats say: Based on FBI data analyzed by the New York Times, the U.S. homicide clearance rate was approximately 58% in 2023, meaning nearly half of murders go unsolved. This rate indicates a long-term decline from over 90% in the 1960s to a low of 51% in 2021. The clearance rate for violent crimes, including murder, was 61.4% in 2023.

so...it's somewhere between a coin toss and a crap shoot. Nearly half of murders go unsolved. The perps may not all be academics but they have been able to outsmart the experts. JMO

 

[OldCop]

Yes. A crotch gun. It’s kinda nuts when you think about it.

Pun intended?

 

[Cassie P]

I think they mean the first time the perp appears without the backpack, standing in front of the camera being deliberately menacing. The theory has been mentioned, and I agree, that he was testing the camera. He wanted to know if anyone was monitoring it, whether they recieved alerts that a person had been detected. Dressed like her was, if NG or anyone had been paying attention, they would have been calling 911, or at least turning on lights in the house and calling a neighbor or family member. If they had, it was a dark, moonless night, so they would have just slipped back into the darkness to watch. But nothing happened. The camera check/dress rehersal went well (for him), and I also think he showed up early the second time, just to double check the security. He got close enough to alert the camera, waited to be sure no one inside does anything, then went ahead with the abduction.

I see. So fake menacing to test the camera alert system. He wanted to see if NG was alerted to his presence, was she frightened enough to call her family or 911. So being dramatic and looking scary for a particular practical reason as part crime planning. He found out that the camera was not a threat to him.

This is a person who is a belt and suspenders kind of guy? He is going to check out everything ahead of time. He is careful and meticulous. Doesn't take chances, or I should say when he does take a chance it is a calculated risk. Not a foolish one? He is low key but confident.

 

[annpats]

I realize almost everyone says that LD couldn't be Lantana guy but when I see his interview that is what I see...lantana guy. He doesn't look at Briana in the eye when he says he had nothing to do with the NG case. I really believe he had something to do with it. moo

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028583982703747475

Yes.
He seems to do that micro-smirk with his lips, that forensic psychologists say gives the indication of guilt.
It means that they think they are getting away with it. It's practically subconscious, so they're not even aware they're doing it, and it's known as "supers delight".

What Is Duper’s Delight? Causes, Signs, and How to Respond

Body language expert Janine Driver explains what duper's delight is and how to spot it If you've ever felt a spark of joy when a lie of yours went unnoticed, that was duper's delight. Duper's delight, or duping delight, is the experience...

www.wikihow.com