• #42,941
Oh Gosh! Don't apologize.:) I can see your confusion it if the ransom notes were sent days later and it would be more of an after thought. They were sent approximately 36 hours later, so proximate to the kidnapping. Does that change anything for you?
Thanks! It doesn't change my thinking. I believe the ransom notes were generated by an insider with knowledge of the crime scene...JMO
 
  • #42,942
No--it is the house next door on the same side of street.
They have been to this house many many many many many times.
Something about this house has piqued their interest more than any other, IMO.
They keep going back.......
Remember--LE was seen behind this house going removing the manhole cover and probing with a pole back on Feb 8th.

As an aside--is this also the house where the lady resident has been antagonistic/hostile towards the media?
Upthread there was video of a resident lashing out at reporters. Anyone know if this is the same house/resident?
Do you have the house address? Do you know who lives there? I wonder if the FBI visited this house yesterday? And removed something as evidence?
 
  • #42,943
Can someone explain what might cause internet outage among a few houses? I guess it could also be power or cable TV outage.
 
  • #42,944
Has it ever been mentioned what type of cameras the others were? Google was able to retrieve that footage from the Nest doorbell cam.. Ring had said they wouldn't have been able to retrieve that footage without a subscription. I had been hoping all of her cameras were Nest and that we would have seen more footage by now..

JMO


"I do know with Ring specifically, if you delete a recording or if you don't want a recording, you don't
have a subscription. We do not have it stored. I know that because I built the systems with my team," Siminoff said.
Google was only able to get the Nest cam footage off their deep servers because the camera was disabled according to them.

Had he not actually physically disconnected/damaged the camera it would have recorded over the last recording and that footage we have would be lost, according to Google. This is because there was not an active cloud subscription on those cameras by NG.

So the criminals' act of physically disabling that specific doorbell camera allowed the last footage of him to remain on their servers.
 
  • #42,945
  • #42,946
OK, so this would fit with possibility #2 I listed with an accomplice in the home already.

The thing that strikes me is that his approach was so not purpose-driven, and he was seemingly surprised by the camera and then fumbled with it. I don't think he knew a camera was there (the vestibule as seen in the several pictures I posted) is very covered and dark, and hard to see from other angles on the property.


And if he had an accomplice inside waiting to remove NG, why not just open the front door at that point. Now we are not privy to a lot of info in this case. There was no forced entry on that door, but if the police found both deadbolt on the door locked then it would further make less sense. I do believe as illustrated in the pictures with the police truck parked right by the walkway and obscured by brush from the street view in daylight that would be the point to pull up a vehicle comfortably.

A lot of this would be easier to speculate on if we knew the locations/conditions/angles of the other cameras on the property and the condition/ease of breaching other entry points, and any other evidence we are not privy to that surely they have. I believe there were major camera blind spots and residential doors/windows that may have been easily breach-able (and would not leave signs of forced entry) like a slider.
You’re right, why not just open the front door and reach out to remove the camera? Why didn’t this happen?
 
  • #42,947
Can someone explain what might cause internet outage among a few houses? I guess it could also be power or cable TV outage.
I think an issue here is that most people use internet and WiFi interchangeably

If it was actually WiFi dropouts, that could be explained by the perp using a WiFi Jammer though the range is seemingly only 15-30m

If it was an actual broadband dropout, the most likely explanation would just be a crappy ISP (though what a coincidence) , I doubt the perp would be fiddling with a network cab to cause that kind of disruption. But I guess it's not impossible.
 
  • #42,948
But doesn’t Internet outage cycle back to the Nest cam in the alcove still being viable because it had battery back up and also stored images awaiting uploading? So if an accomplice was meant to bring a car around and decided to scope the front walkway, he could have seen the Nest still operable and had to physically remove it before Nancy was brought out the front door?
 
  • #42,949
Can someone explain what might cause internet outage among a few houses? I guess it could also be power or cable TV outage.

You can just cut the fiber optic line coming to the house (small black cable about the size of old cable tv coax). In my neighborhood I have a long front run (over 200') and it fell off the pole onto the ground (linemen said it was "ok') Until a deer snagged and tore it and all internet was out. It's now hung up again but someone could easily cut it at the house level.

Supposedly a wifi signal jammer pack could temporarily disable the signal. I've seen those with break ins even in NYC now, but they are more popular in home invasions abroad.

A few house could be a downed line or technical issue on their end. I am not sure if NG's neighborhood had buried lines--I believe it does from pics--and then any digging or even animals chewing can cut the line.

In any physical breach there would be evidence and a signal would not go back on until repaired.
 
  • #42,950
Right. Until they have significant reason to believe NG is the victim of a homicide, it will remain a missing persons case. So clearly (MOO) there was not enough blood evidence inside the home to reasonably indicate NG would be deceased. It's hard to have a "no body" homicide case & if this were to switch to homicide, I'd be extremely curious about the evidence that almost certainly would have to be brand new/freshly discovered.

I agree because even though Nanos had brought in the Homicide team he still mentioned at the February 2, 2026 press conference that if you think you see Nancy, take a picture of her.

He also has stated that there is no evidence that she is deceased.
 
  • #42,951
  • #42,952
But doesn’t Internet outage cycle back to the Nest cam in the alcove still being viable because it had battery back up and also stored images awaiting uploading? So if an accomplice was meant to bring a car around and decided to scope the front walkway, he could have seen the Nest still operable and had to physically remove it before Nancy was brought out the front door?

Ok so if there was no signal the camera would still function locally and record on its internal memory, and also go through the motions (light up, detect, record). It would just not transmit the footage to the cloud or send a push alert to a phone, until connected again.

It seems from the footage that the masked man was surprised by the camera or the motion detection light, and then fumbled to disable it. I don't think he even knew it was there (the vestibule is covered and very dark, posted several pics of this a few posts up)

The footage uploaded to the server once a connection was established again.
 
  • #42,953
I'm hearing some buzz online about SATG:
SOUTH AMERICAN THEFT GROUPS
A term used by the FBI and local law enforcement to describe transnational organized crime rings.



Key Aspects of South American Theft Groups (SATGs):
  • Operation: These groups are often composed of foreign nationals, sometimes referred to as "burglary tourists," who may enter the U.S. illegally or via visa waivers.
  • Methods: They use advanced techniques, including surveillance, Wi-Fi jammers, and disguises to avoid detection. They frequently rent vehicles, use fake IDs, and rely on encrypted messaging apps.
  • Targets: High-end residential neighborhoods are heavily targeted, with a notable increase in incidents involving Asian-American business owners.
  • Impact: Law enforcement has documented millions of dollars in losses across multiple states.
  • Locations: Significant activity has been reported in California, Texas, and various other states.
    FBI (.gov)


I'VE BEEN READING UP ON THESE CRIMINALS. They check a lot of boxes in this case. Advanced techniques, thorough pre-planning, disguises, surveillance, work in teams. Experienced. Use crypto-currency.

They are known for casing neighbourhoods in the pre-planning phase. They use surveillance techniques, and then plan their home invasion for later date, and come prepared.
That is very interesting in a terrifying way, but I would expect an organized group to hit more than one house. And to be better prepared than Lantana Man appears to have been. MOOooo
 
  • #42,954
February 5, 2026 Sheriff Nanos stated the following,

"Sunday morning, early morning at 1:47 a.m. the doorbell camera disconnects."

"At 2:12 a.m., software detects a person on camera, but there's no video available. They had no subscription and therefore it would rewrite itself. Kind of it, it just kind of loops right, and covers up.
That's what are analysis teams have told us. We're not done with that. We'll do all we can, but that's what it says. So, that detects a person on camera. Could that be an animal? I imagine that's possible. We don't know that. We just have no video, but we're not giving up on that."

Five days later on February 10, 2026 the FBI with the help of Google successfully recovered Nancy's front door nest camera footage via residual data in Google's backend system.
Based on reporting from early February 2026, the Pima County Sheriff's Department indicated that a smart home device at Nancy Guthrie's residence detected a person on camera at approximately 2:12 a.m. on February 1, 2026.
Facebook
Facebook +1
  • Details of the Alert: Sheriff Chris Nanos stated that while the system recorded a "person detected" alert at 2:12 a.m., there was no saved video clip available because there was no active subscription to save the footage.
  • Significance of the Time: Law enforcement sources indicated that this 2:12 a.m. activity is believed to be when the perpetrator was at the door, shortly before or after the doorbell camera was disconnected at 1:47 a.m. and her pacemaker app showed a disconnection from her phone at 2:28 a.m..
  • Video Release: While the 2:12 a.m. alert was text-based, the FBI and Sheriff's Department later released recovered video footage from February 10, 2026, showing a masked, armed individual at the home around that time.
    Instagram
    Instagram +4
The announcement regarding the 2:12 a.m. alert was largely made around February 5, 2026, when Sheriff Nanos began sharing the timeline of the investigation.
YouTube
YouTube +1
 
  • #42,955
Just catching up here and wanted to add two random things:

1. I have a friend in the jewelry industry who has attended the Tucson Gem and Mineral Show for numerous years. She said that items get stolen from the show ALL the time and that it's kind of free-for-all. In my personal opinion, if someone wanted gems, they could hit the show and steal there. Check out the videos of the show this year - people have backpacks, huge purses, etc. - and the show is HUGE size-wise. IMO, no need to rob NG's house (or any other house) for gems.

2. Has LE ever said one way or another that this was an isolated incident and there is no threat to the public? Personally, I feel feel this was likely a targeted act, but if I am wrong and the individual(s) responsible like to prey on the elderly, I'd hope LE would issue some kind of blanket statement to the general public. Maybe that's me asking too much.

All IMO.

At the February 2nd presser when a reporter asked the Sheriff if there was any threat to the public he said although there is crime in Tucson there is not people kidnapping elderly people from their home every night.
 
  • #42,956
I listened to Brian Entin’s interview from yesterday and he interviewed two people who were involved with the Kohlberger case. They said a jammer would affect more homes than just Nancy’s.
Really depends. Low- to Mid level portable jammers are effective to only 15-50ft in some cases, depending on were they are standing and factors like obstacles. I doubt these guys with the $5 mismatched holster and $15 Walmart backpack had military grade equipment, likely a temu jammer.
 

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  • #42,957
This sequence of events makes sense to me:
  • Perp knew there was a camera in advance (perhaps by suggested Jan 11th visit)
  • Camera is intentionally taken offline at 1:47am via WiFi Jammer or some other means
  • Perp is waiting and/or doing some other prep for the next 30 odd minutes
  • At some point before 2:12am the internet connection to the camera comes back online (if it's a WiFi jammer maybe the battery died or something)
  • Perp finally goes to enter the house (or at least try to) via the front door around 2:12am when the video is captured and gets out to Google's servers
  • Perp is surprised to see the camera is online (should be able to tell it's online via the light colour) and tries stuffing plants in front of it
  • Perp eventually disconnects/breaks the camera and takes it with them
Could be one person, could be multiple but I think it works

As for why a short range WiFi jammer would affect neighbours connections, maybe it was just a brief thing as he is passing by and already has the jammer on to be extra sure it'll be ready to block the camera's connection when he gets there
 
  • #42,958
Has anyone seen any confirmation that there was an Uber driver or any talk of LE interview with that person?

"Uber. We did speak to a driver because Nancy, we learned, had been taken, uh, uh the Uber to the family residence um, uh the, the daughter for dinner and we located that driver and spoke with them and, and, got that information." - Sheriff Nanos 02/05

Timestamp: 9:45

 
  • #42,959
Maybe the media has a cutoff point. It may be expensive to send reporters and crews out in the field like this. Housing, food, travel costs. Especially when there is no breaking news items from FBI or LE. Also the public has a short attention span and has moved on to other news.

But I hope you are right that an arrest is imminent.

Yes, I'm sure the media has a cutoff point in terms of resources on a case, but it isn't usually driven by bean counters. Rather, public opinion. Media income is generated primarily via ad revenue, and if the clicks on Youtube are an indicator, that hasn't really decreased. Clicks may have even increased in some respects.

The media left because LE specifically and overtly kept encouraging them to. And when many still stayed, they forced them out with parking ordinances and the like.

Press conferences stopped and media utilization for the case essentially dried up right after the second raid.

JMO.
 
  • #42,960

So it sounds like they are entertaining the idea of some sort of disruption of the internet
Update from Brian Entin’s recent post from today about a possible internet disruption on the night of Nancy’s kidnapping. FBI are investigating.

 
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