GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - #10

[cluciano63]

I think LE and FBI are always on the look out for faked letters in missing persons case, so to me, their saying they believe the letter is from Abigail is a fairly strong statement. But being it is two months past, anything may have happened since.

 

[Mom24]

I don't feel she ran away at all. It doesn't add up to me. But then again I do not know this girl only what I have read and seen online. She had a boyfriend who she had text, she had many friends, her birthday was coming up. What type of student was she? Did she like school? Why would a 14 year old girl take off from school if she was a good student? So that would be a key factor I would think in this investigation? I would ask if she was a good student, if school was important to her, did she get good grades, was her attendance good? I mean if this girl likes school would she just take off and forget about her education? I think personally she ran into someone local that day and went willingly with them but they are not who she thinks they are and she probably went willingly not thinking anything bad would happen. Those are my thoughts if she did not run away which I don't really feel she did runaway but feel they need to check locally. I say this because if she was involved with someone online and planned this I would feel that they would already have found her through the technology of tracing internet addresses and phone records? Those are just my thoughts. I pray that they will find her soon.

Unfortunately there may have been things we don't even know about or understand. For kids at this age friend problems can be overwhelming. I remember skipping school because I had issues with one of my friends and I was rebuffed by the group I was friends with at lunch time, the thought of eating lunch alone was too much to handle. Combine those hot emotions fueled by hormones (aren't the teenage years lovely) with the now ever available online influence from other teens and constant fb, twitter and other sm interactions and kids can get caught up in things that they're too naïve to understand. I got from ZH when she said that she felt AH got into a car with someone and things went badly to suggest that AH was naïve a trusting. This would make her perfect prey for a savvy internet predator.
The other thing I'll say is that with teens they tend to do drastic things right before big events. Birthdays and graduations are really stressful times for teens and you might think they'd be things worth looking forward to, but it's change and teens can find these things stressful. It's why so many couples break up right before valentines day, for example (hate that time of year) and even adults have these issues. More suicides happen between thanksgiving and Christmas.

 

[Mom24]

I think LE and FBI are always on the look out for faked letters in missing persons case, so to me, their saying they believe the letter is from Abigail is a fairly strong statement. But being it is two months past, anything may have happened since.

I'd feel more comfortable if they had said they were certain. But even so, if they believe it was from AH, if she didn't write it it had to be written by someone her age who knew her very well.

 

[BillNH]

I haven't disregarded any possibilities - see my previous posts.

What Disinformation? Please be specific. Thanks.

What have I said that was fraudulent? Love to know!

It was a general comment but used your comment to state it. It is frustrating to me to see people try to downplay the runaway angle and make excuses for why LE may have said its possible. It's almost as if some want it to be an abduction and I just don't understand that. I know some people will stop looking if they feel she is a runaway but not acknowledging the possibility is just as detrimental to getting her home, if that's what happened. LE cannot call it anything but a missing person, to me that leaves all possibilities open, so why try explain away a runaway theory? A poster above that I responded to flat out contradicted what was written in the linked article. The lead investigator said they were acknowledging the possibility that AH ran away. The poster said he didn't say that. That's one example of misinformation and for the life of me I cannot understand the point of trying to dissuade people from the runaway theory like that.

 

[BillNH]

BBM
Yes I agree and the article would have been fine to say "letter from RH assumes daughter ran away". But the official word from LE is and has been they don't know and to state in the frontline that LE is suddenly now putting the runaway theory front and center is misinformation. LE doesn't know and I agree their words should be taken at face value. I myself vacillate between did she leave of her volition or was she abducted and all that remains in between. Is she alive or was she killed shortly after she went missing. Did she intend to just hang out with someone for the afternoon and ended up being abducted, don't know. But until and unless LE clearly states that they have now changed their position to feel this is a runaway, then to theorize that as a news article is poor judgement, imo. Runaways don't get looked for, point in case the girls that castro raped and beat and tortured for 10 years. And even if she is a run away, it doesn't mean she's sitting eating bons bons and watching tv all day. LE does continue to say she's in grave danger, I have to take that at face value as well.

BBM
The article did not say this, the headline did not say this.

The headline "Investigators considering possibility Abigail Hernandez ran away" in no way says or implies that the runaway theory is being put front and center.

The statement attributed to KR "FBI Agent Kieran Ramsey, one of the lead investigators in the missing person case, acknowledged that the investigation is considering the possibility that Abigail ran away, among several other possibilities.

"We aren't going to characterize his plea (to Abigail) in his letter one way or the other," Ramsey said." in no way says or implies that the runaway theory is now front and center.

This article is not the source of misinformation.

 

[cluciano63]

I'd feel more comfortable if they had said they were certain. But even so, if they believe it was from AH, if she didn't write it it had to be written by someone her age who knew her very well.

I do not think they would dare say that. Too much at stake with no way to determine the circumstances, IMO.

 

[Steleheart]

I think LE and FBI are always on the look out for faked letters in missing persons case, so to me, their saying they believe the letter is from Abigail is a fairly strong statement. But being it is two months past, anything may have happened since.

Agreed, Clu, and in fact they stated that faked letters is their main reason for not disclosing the postmark and contents.
While I agree it's a strong statement, "we believe" is not definitive as in "we determined" IMO

BBM:
"The letter is purported to be written by Abby to her mother."

"Law enforcement had to take every possible step to verify it's authenticity
and at this juncture we believe it was in fact written by Abby and was sent to her mother."

IMO" Every possible step "may not have necessarily resulted in definitive proof, ie; fingerprints, DNA, etc.

http://www.myfoxboston.com/video?clipId=9607183&topVideoCatNo=238258&autoStart=true

Jane Young chooses her words very very carefully and leaves the door open to the 'other possibilities'.
BTW in that PC you can cut the tension with a knife, JY, Chief Wagner and KR as well. IMO

Again I hope I am wrong.

 

[Mom24]

It was a general comment but used your comment to state it. It is frustrating to me to see people try to downplay the runaway angle and make excuses for why LE may have said its possible. It's almost as if some want it to be an abduction and I just don't understand that. I know some people will stop looking if they feel she is a runaway but not acknowledging the possibility is just as detrimental to getting her home, if that's what happened. LE cannot call it anything but a missing person, to me that leaves all possibilities open, so why try explain away a runaway theory? A poster above that I responded to flat out contradicted what was written in the linked article. The lead investigator said they were acknowledging the possibility that AH ran away. The poster said he didn't say that. That's one example of misinformation and for the life of me I cannot understand the point of trying to dissuade people from the runaway theory like that.

Argh....hate windows. I had responded to this post and it was so good and clear, but I hit the return button and it refreshed the whole darn thing. Sigh. Point is, LE hasn't "acknowledged" anything new, the byline of the article says they did and that's not responsible. RH is now acknowledging his daughter is a runaway, not LE. LE, as another poster pointed out, has always acknowledged that as a potential scenario. The comments referenced in the article are not new, they were made a press conference 3 weeks ago and the same thing has been said by KR from the beginning, in the absence of any evidence they don't know. The runaway scenario was never not on the table for LE.

 

[Mom24]

I do not think they would dare say that. Too much at stake with no way to determine the circumstances, IMO.

I agree. I think the only way they could have been certain is if there had been dna evidence or fingerprints.

 

[Steleheart]

It was a general comment but used your comment to state it. It is frustrating to me to see people try to downplay the runaway angle and make excuses for why LE may have said its possible. It's almost as if some want it to be an abduction and I just don't understand that. I know some people will stop looking if they feel she is a runaway but not acknowledging the possibility is just as detrimental to getting her home, if that's what happened. LE cannot call it anything but a missing person, to me that leaves all possibilities open, so why try explain away a runaway theory? A poster above that I responded to flat out contradicted what was written in the linked article. The lead investigator said they were acknowledging the possibility that AH ran away. The poster said he didn't say that. That's one example of misinformation and for the life of me I cannot understand the point of trying to dissuade people from the runaway theory like that.

BBM:
It's not understandable because that would be absurd. I think you know that.
BBM:
Again it would not be understandable all by itself.
What I have seen here by reading all of what people post is that others are merely trying to downplay the runaway theory as the accepted prevailing theory by LE which it is not.

I take umbrance to the notion that anyone here is being fraudulent or that anyone is purposely promoting disinformation. Please don't make accusations like that.

I don't want her to befound deceased. I said in my post yesterday that I pray to God every day that I am wrong. In fact I am actively posting and sharing from the help pages on FB every day in the HOPE, once again, that my worst fears are just plain wrong.
But this is not a support page - WebSleuths does, though, have support pages, check them out. This is a forum where we discuss real possibilities and sometimes those ideas are uncomfortable.
What I want to see is people stick to the facts, what few we know, and base their theories on that rather than the rumors or the emotions of the parents who have no other options, or the gossip out on the web.
LE believes that if she's alive that she is in grave danger. That is the very best scenario that they have put forth. Of ALL the possibilities.
To downplay the runaway - that's not what people are doing IMO. But to downplay the danger to her - that would be tragic for her.

What is not supported by links here is My Opinion Only.

 

[ohoh]

Posted a long post, lost it. I always go back to the beginning, and start over, to find where I went astray, fell off the cliff....or have to eat my words. I now think I was oh so wrong about thinking she may have gone to the end of the power line, crossed Eastman Rd. And ended up behind Walmart, or ended up in the Walmart parking lot by the nursery plant entrance. I now think it might be a wild goose chase that she ever got to NS Rd or anywhere near home.

A power line goes over the back of our Maine lake property, we still own the property but they have right of way. Enuff said about that. I am thinking now that she was taken/abducted/ kidnapped from school property. I do not know how to go about checking to see if the high school property goes down to the curb on Eastman Rd. Can someone help me on that?
I agree with Steleheart, even though people do not want to hear that. Sorry!

 

[geevee]

Posted a long post, lost it. I always go back to the beginning, and start over, to find where I went astray, fell off the cliff....or have to eat my words. I now think I was oh so wrong about thinking she may have gone to the end of the power line, crossed Eastman Rd. And ended up behind Walmart, or ended up in the Walmart parking lot by the nursery plant entrance. I now think it might be a wild goose chase that she ever got to NS Rd or anywhere near home.

A power line goes over the back of our Maine lake property, we still own the property but they have right of way. Enuff said about that. I am thinking now that she was taken/abducted/ kidnapped from school property. I do not know how to go about checking to see if the high school property goes down to the curb on Eastman Rd. Can someone help me on that?
I agree with Steleheart, even though people do not want to hear that. Sorry!

Good to see you here again, ohoh.

Does this help or is it too far away or too close up?

 

[ohoh]

Good to see you here again, ohoh.

Does this help or is it too far away or too close up?

Dear geevee, that is the right map, but I need it to show the well groomed power line trail, which begins over at Eagles Way Rd, Walmart is across the rd,
You need to go pretty far over to the left, power line trail will be visible. Thanks so much. Will return after dinner. Xoxo

 

[majikbeans]

I do get your points about how much time has passed since the letter was written, but I keep going back to the statement in the newspaper in the first few days, by Gray--"we didn't see it coming." (you never see abduction coming)
All along I have gone back to that statement, thinking this was a runaway case, and now and again there have been other statements to back up the theory--the mom and dad addressing her, the 'I'll help you follow your dreams' letter, and now the dad's assumption in his letter. In my opinion, something was there from the beginning to allow this theory to be a possible scenario. Were there other possibilities?--yes, yes, yes. How could there not be--with the phone cutting out at 3-ish (or later, depending on the fish-and-game report)?
But the BF's family is cutting ties--apparently. And I don't think LE would say the letter didn't seem pretty authentic if it wasn't. There are explanations for the optimism, sure, but there is a pattern that can lead us to take abduction off the table (my opinion). Is she in danger, currently? I'd say so (imo). Is she alive? Well, we can't know that, especially since the world is a dangerous place for all at-risk children.
I don't think she disappeared without a trace and left absolutely no clues, though. We don't know what they are--who she spoke to--who detected her secret-keeping--which relationships she was ending, was running away from, was angry about. But somebody does. The first and
loudest advocates for finding her are quiet--this tells us a lot--this speaks volumes.

 

[geevee]

Dear geevee, that is the right map, but I need it to show the well groomed power line trail, which begins over at Eagles Way Rd, Walmart is across the rd,
You need to go pretty far over to the left, power line trail will be visible. Thanks so much. Will return after dinner. Xoxo

Okay, let me know if this shows what you're looking for.

 

[Steleheart]

Posted a long post, lost it. I always go back to the beginning, and start over, to find where I went astray, fell off the cliff....or have to eat my words. I now think I was oh so wrong about thinking she may have gone to the end of the power line, crossed Eastman Rd. And ended up behind Walmart, or ended up in the Walmart parking lot by the nursery plant entrance. I now think it might be a wild goose chase that she ever got to NS Rd or anywhere near home.

A power line goes over the back of our Maine lake property, we still own the property but they have right of way. Enuff said about that. I am thinking now that she was taken/abducted/ kidnapped from school property. I do not know how to go about checking to see if the high school property goes down to the curb on Eastman Rd. Can someone help me on that?
I agree with Steleheart, even though people do not want to hear that. Sorry!

BBM:
But OhOh, that would imply that the 'witness' who saw Abby turn off onto the powerline trail was, er, not exactly correct. Hmm. :waitasec:

Are there any other indications that the trail the dogs had tracked her on was not the way she went on the day she disappeared? They tracked her home afterall. "despite previous reporting, no confirmation that she ever made it to her home on October 9, 2013."
http://www.bringabbyhome.com/abbys-timeline/
Well what we Do know is that the dogs tracked her that way because she went that way before; "Abigail’s previous after-school travel pattern confirmed"
http://www.bringabbyhome.com/abbys-timeline/
Does that mean she went that way on 10/9?
Could the witness have mistaken Abby turning off Eagle's Way with Abby getting into a car which then went very badly very quickly? :waitasec:

IMO the many other possibilities have not exactly been diminished by that letter which has not been said by LE as "certain", but rather "at this juncture we believe"...

M O O !

 

[cluciano63]

Even if they found DNA or prints they could only know she touched the letter, IMO. And not under what circumstances.

 

[geevee]

Is the white line (going north) off Eagle's Way the dirt road she supposedly was last seen taking?

 

[skibaboo]

Hollye's maps might be useful here

Full map http://www.bing.com/maps/?v=2&cp=44.035614~-71.113099&lvl=12&dir=0&sty=h&cid=49B0E16AAA81621D!113&form=LMLTCC

Key points (number 3, last sighting eagles way/powerline trail) http://www.bing.com/maps/?v=2&cp=44.035614~-71.113099&lvl=12&dir=0&sty=h&cid=49B0E16AAA81621D!178&form=LMLTCC

 

[Steleheart]

Is the white line (going north) off Eagle's Way the dirt road she supposedly was last seen taking?

It's been my opinion, at least where I live, that powerlines and powerline trails are not the same, so from the beginning I have been of the opinion that the "powerline trail" refers to the trail that leads from Eagle's Way to the "powerline", intersects it and comes out on Eastman Road across from the retention pond behind Walmart. So that would be the dirt road from Eagle's way which is traced in Yellow on Hollye's Map.