When I first learned of Colin's disappearance, I initially believed that he had either succumbed to exposure or fallen through the ice, but the fact that authorities were able to identify tracks leading over the guardrail where he stopped for a moment makes me reconsider -- if they could see those tracks, then they would have been able to see any other tracks leading off the road into the forest or onto & across an iced-over pond/lake. I now believe in the theory that there was foul play, whether it was someone who intentionally set out to cause Colin harm or was a result of a confrontation that escalated.
I'm sorry, this is long and a little scattered but I wanted to share my two cents' worth (all of which is my own opinion...)
Just to clarify for future readers -- this is a small town tucked into the wilderness among extremely dense forests, remote bodies of water, and terrain that can challenge the most seasoned of hikers. Although downtown Tupper Lake is set up in a grid pattern, it's small enough to cover all of the "city blocks" in probably 20 minutes on foot. Wilderness takes over pretty quick as you reach the edges of town, and there are no real suburbs or developments along the outskirts. It's a busy little town, with a constant flow of tourists passing through in every season, but at the end of the day it's still a very small community where families know one another and are intertwined for generations. Colin was not in town when he disappeared -- the only "civilization" in the area is random seasonal camps and residences that are spaced a good distance apart. For those not familiar with the area, close your eyes and imagine nothing around you except trees and boulders and bodies of water with a road winding along -- it's a place you can experience true solitude without having to go far to find it.
The largest non-human predators in the area are black bear and coyotes (and moose can be dangerous during rut.) I don't for a minute believe that this was an animal v. human scenario, there would have been visible blood and drag marks.
I do not believe that Colin mistakenly turned in the wrong direction when he reached Route 3, nor do I believe that he was impaired enough to forget to put on a coat. Kids that grow up in an area like this know to respect the weather, it's second nature to them. You don't spend every winter of your life bundled to the eyes only to wander off in a t-shirt and sneakers on a night of sub-zero temperatures, and you don't live in an area for 18 years and forget the route to your house. I feel that he was headed to another friend's home, whether that involved the friend picking him up in a vehicle or him making his way there on foot. I tend to think he was without a coat because he left his pack in the car that brought him (and that subsequently left the party before he did), but I waver on that point as it would seem his friend would have turned the pack in as soon as they found it in the car...
My thoughts on the arm-waving is that he was either trying to stay warm, or trying to keep his balance -- not long ago I almost hit a woman who was walking the white line on the highway, heel-to-toe, and waving her arms to keep her balance. I also have countless times in my younger days waved my arms wildly to keep my balance while walking across the top of a bridge/fallen log/pavilion roof. I mean, I know there aren't set rules as to how to flag down another vehicle, but when you run into that situation, it's usually pretty obvious when someone is trying to get you to stop, obvious enough that you wouldn't question what they were trying to communicate.
He could very well have dropped his ID and pipe while fishing around in his pockets for a lighter or his stash -- cold fingers are awkward, denim jeans are tailored to fit and when you're fishing around for an item it's almost a given that you're going to pull out whatever else is in there, including lint. If you're doing that while you're walking, the items you're dropping are left in a trail behind you -- if someone is tossing those same items out of the window of a vehicle, they wind up further afield instead of just along the shoulder. Maybe not the ID because it doesn't have much weight to carry it far, but even a small wooden pipe would hit the pavement and either skid or bounce its way into the vegetation/snowbank beyond the shoulder.
My best guess is that this was a confrontation with someone Colin knew, and things went far enough where he was fatally injured. I think someone he had been arguing with earlier came across him walking and stopped to confront Colin again. He may have been knocked down in a fist-fight or shoving match, or intentionally bumped with a car, and hit his head when he fell. From there, it's anyone's guess as to where his body was hidden -- I can think of a frighteningly long list of places to hide something in my own neck of the woods, and we don't have even a fraction of the wilderness that they have in the Adks. I'm afraid that at this point, it's a matter of waiting for someone to let enough information slip about what really happened.
I think of Colin and his family often, and always keep my eyes open for anything when I'm hiking in the area.
