This is my first time posting but I've been following this thread and doing a lot (too much) websleuthing. Being from the south shore of Long Island, I'm interested in this case. I used to hang out in the OBI parking lot as a teenager, (it used to be a cool place to hang out in high school), so I'm quite familiar with the area.
Here's my theory for your consideration. My suspect has been mentioned here before but didn't receive much attention from this group, who seem to be, IMO, wrongly focused on the "usual suspects." I've provided some new information (online evidence) related to burlap that "may" present probable cause for a search warrant (see #10 - "Probable Cause" below). Since he has not been named by LE, I will follow the rules of the group and not identify him by name. I will also not post any specific links from my research as they may specifically identify him, but if you can't find something that I reference let me know and I'll try to assist with suggesting how to locate it online.
I'll start with a bit of background on my thought process, but just skip to #7 below if you don't feel like reading my brain dump. Let me know what you think:
1) I assume JB and the "Drifter" are not involved with any of the murders. The reason I assume this is because nothing that they did has the hallmark of a highly intelligent, organized serial killer. Would JB/Drifer really have invited a potential victim to the house, thus revealing their location? No way, never. The real killer would definitely use a throw-away phone and a proxy meet-up location, probably a local seedy hotel parking lot on the mainland with no cameras, to ensure that the women were alone (probably why LE went asking around at local hotels). He probably played it off as looking for a "car date." He would probably pay them the $1000 or so and then say that he had another $1000 at his house if they were willing to "get more comfortable" or spend the night.
2) I assume MP and CPH are also not involved with any of the murders in any way, shape or form. MP was SG's driver and she was a source of recurring revenue for him - no motive whatsoever. CPH was home with his wife. He never had the opportunity to kill SG, no matter how guilty he looks. He was basically framed by the real SK. If CPH were the SK, he would never be so reckless as to contact SG's mom from his home phone and indicate that she was staying at his "halfway house". Our SK is really smart, not really dumb. The real SK wouldn't even leave Internet records, let alone phone records. He would use a laptop and someone else's unsecured wireless network on the mainland to browse listings, or he would anonymize his online activities using a web proxy. In short, this guy is really smart, and really careful - that's why he has not yet been caught. Absolutely none of the "usual suspects" fit this profile. Not JB, CPH, MP or the Drifter.
3) I assume that the disappearance of SG and the 4 recovered victims are most definitely related. The probability is too high that they are unrelated. Thus, I assume that the SK resides in OB. If SG had never gone missing from OB, I would definitely think that the SK was from the mainland and just using the area as a dumping ground. OB would never be a likely area of interest. The SK probably knows this too, and that's why he was comfortable dumping right next door. For example, I wouldn't think that the other unrelated victims found near Tobay are from OB, or even Tobay Beach for that matter (there are houses located in Tobay too), would you?
4) The initial phone call to SG's mom was real - it actually happened - and IMO is the single best key to revealing the identity of the real SK. The caller claimed that he was CPH - but in my opinion he was not. The call was made to avoid a search of the area because the caller knew, for a fact, what LE would potentially find (i.e., 4 bodies of his other victims). The caller, against his better judgment, absolutely had to make this call because he was desperate. He knew that he had screwed up big time and revealed his general location, OB, and that he might ultimately be tied back to the other victims. In my theory, SG had inadvertently stumbled into his path, met all of his "victim" criteria and became a victim herself - a "too good to be true" chance opportunity for the SK. Whereas all of the other murders were highly pre-meditated, this murder was a completely spur of the moment decision to kill SG that he couldn't physically, mentally or emotionally resist, and it was a really bad decision. The SK's call to SG's mother was an act of desperation, a cover-up, to throw off both the family and LE. There's simply no other explanation, and thus the same person responsible for SG's disappearance is also responsible for the 4 other victims, and the SK in fact resides in OB. Again, really smart, and it probably would have worked perfectly if the family wasn't so passionate and determined about finding SG.
5) Lies come in a variety of forms. One type of lie in particular is called a "half-truth." If we look at the call to SG's parents, what might be truth, and what might be a lie? That the caller was CPH was a lie, in my opinion, however the caller obviously knew of CPH and maybe even thought that he would be a good scapegoat in a worst case scenario (i.e., maybe he knew about his lying on a job application, his employment history, etc.). That the caller was in fact a doctor might actually be the truth. Think about it. Who impersonates a doctor? That's pretty gutsy and would require some subject matter expertise. Who even knows enough about "halfway houses" to be able to even come up with the narrative that quickly? A doctor, particularly one that sees a high number of mental health related patients and probably recommends halfway houses to these patients on a regular basis. Even the word "halfway house" itself means somewhere between an institution (hospital/prison) and society.
6) SG called 911 and ran to GC's house. That's a well known fact. She wouldn't leave JB's house until she got paid. She probably threatened JB that she would call the cops and report an attack/rape if he didn't pay up. In my theory, she actually did make the call, from JB's house, and falsely reported an attack. At this point, JB or the drifter ultimately said something like "I'm going to get my gun/knife, you're dead bXXch", etc., or they may have even pulled out a gun or other weapon and convincingly threatened her to the point that she ran from the house. They were convincing enough that she began running/hiding for her life, knocking on GC's door and actually looking for protection. Gus was too old and wasn't going to be of help. So she ran down Anchor Way and, IMO, knocked on the very next door or began hiding in the very next yard that afforded some real protection. Pretty logical.
7) Who lives there? A Dr. with the last name beginning with the letter "U", mentioned on this board before. He's been trying agressively (3 different realtors) but unsuccessfully to sell his house beginning shortly after the time (3/2008) of the earliest murder/disappearance of Maureen-Bainard Barnes (6/2007), and stopped trying to sell the house just prior to the initial discovery of the bodies (11/2010), perhaps due to increased police presence and the desire to avoid suspicion if bodies were found. He has a brother who used to have a "Landscape Design" business in Suffolk County (i.e., lots of burlap that could be left over and at some point acquired by the Dr.), and the brother now works right down the road from a large hospital-run "Halfway House"). The Dr. is a specialist in Emergency Medicine (EM), the exact same specialty as CPH, and he's around death and disease all the time as an attending Emergency Room (ER) doctor. It is well studied that mental illness is common in the medical field, particularly in night-shift type positions such as the ER. It is also studied in scientific literature that medical professionals lie, deceive and tell half-truths as part of their profession in order to avoid having to tell a patient that they're going to die (or that they have a bad prognosis). Whoever made the call to SG's mom is very good at lying, and very good at understanding and manipulating people. This Dr. in particular is a "locum tenens" doctor which means that he fills-in for other Dr.s when they are away or a hospital needs a temporary attending physician for their Emergency Room. It's a very well paid position and leaves plenty of free time between jobs. He's also unmarried and needs to travel all over the place as temporary job positions require, likely staying in hotels paid for by the hiring hospital.
8) This Dr. grew up in NJ near Newark. When he was around 18 years old in the mid-1980s, there were a series of murdered prostitutes in Newark and surrounding areas investigated as a possible serial killer by a special task force set up by the mayor. Bodies were dumped all in the same general area. Coincidence? Maybe. 18 years old is a trying time for developing intimacy and personality issues (i.e., high testosterone, male's peak, etc.), and I would assume that the LISK has killed before, possibly gone into remission and is now back.
9) It's been mentioned somewhere in this group that this Dr. is suspected by the local OB community. That he is currently in Europe. Is he avoiding the collection of his DNA? Any info on current/recent locations or additional color on local suspicions would be helpful.
10) Probable Cause for a Search Warrant?: If you look up his address, you'll find images of the interior of his home from when it was up for sale. If you click through the thumbnails, you'll see a large BURLAP rug in his living room. This is a pretty uncommon item, IMO. He is also clearly into sailing. Historically, burlap was used as a sail for sailing. Sailing motif throughout (i.e., deck chair, paddles, sailboat models, etc.). Google maps shows two boats in his yard, the smaller of which is almost surely a small sailboat. Also he signed up recently on a sailing regatta website with a Caribbean connection. Burlap bags would very likely be used on a sailboat to store things given their ability to dry quickly. Listen, sailing is not too uncommon for the area, but I believe that the following might provide circumstantial evidence for a search warrant: (1) his patio has a direct line-of-sight to SG's last known location, GC's front porch where SG was seen and heard screaming; (2) the publicly available online image of a BURLAP in his house; (3) the fact that he has been trying to sell the house shortly after the inital disappearance of MBB; and (4) that he is currently "missing" according to the local OB community, possibly in Europe. This should be enough to provide LE with probable cause for a search warrant on the house. Further, people in the other house directly behind the Dr.'s heard the screaming, so it is highly unlikely that someone at the Dr.'s house wouldn't have heard SG screaming too. The house behind the Dr.'s house that I'm referring to is the house where the teenager reported hearing SG and seeing her "footsteps" in the sand. At the least, we know that SG was hiding behind GC's boat. Given that GC pointed towards Anchor Way in his interview when he indicated the direction that SG fled, it would be quite reasonable to at the very least obtain a search warrant for the Dr.'s yard to determine if SG in fact hid behind one of the Dr.'s boats, too. Perhaps she perished there from a heart attack and the Dr. never noticed because he's never home. If there are any additional items located on the outside premises (i.e., earring, forensic evidence, footprints, etc.), that would certainly provide additional probable cause for a broader search of the premises, car, etc.
11) Where is SG? My guess is that the same MO was used, with a slight twist. I would check the brush on north side of the Loop Parkway, northeast of the bridge entering Long Beach but before the drawbridge. Anyone from OB that worked in Nassau County west of the Meadowbrook Parkway (which the Dr. did at one point) would have taken this road to avoid the westbound traffic on Merrick Road between Wantagh Parkway and Meadowbrook Parkway. He would be familiar with this particular area and know traffic patterns on this stretch of the parkway, or complete lack thereof at certain times of the day. He wouldn't have dumped a body near Tobay or Robert Moses Parkway b/c its too close to home to where LE "might" look, which they ultimately did as we know. He would also avoid Wantagh Parkway because troopers are down there all the time looking for speeders (or just enjoying the scenery as I sometimes suspect). It would be highly unlikely for a trooper, a Nassau County cop or a Long Beach cop to be in the area that I mentioned because of jurisdictional reasons (I think Long Beach has jurisdiction for that stretch of the road but the Long Beach cops are pretty understaffed anyhow and would have absolutely no reason to be in that area ever - I actually think the Long Beach cops found a body in this exact area about 6-7 years ago). He would be in his comfort zone there, and he would never pass a traffic camera which are all over the mainland. There may however be a camera in the drawbridge operator booth, but I doubt it.
12) How do you prove this case? DNA. The SK has probably never been arrested/printed/swabbed. He probably has left DNA at other crime scenes, and I guarantee that he's killed more than 5. He's got an addiction, a habit that he can't break. Probably something about hating prostitutes and the power to take or save a life (ever hear of "Angel of Mercy"?). I once met someone who grew up in a part of Queens with street prostitutes in his neighborhood and he made a point about absolutely despising them - pretty over the top kind of passionate hatred, and I suspect he was hiding something like he'd been with a few of them before or maybe even picked up an STD. If you've ever been to Newark, you know that there are some parts of town that are, well, a bit shady. Seeing prostitutes as worthless, non-human objects is a hallmark of this SK, and this hatred was not developed overnight.
13) I don't know for sure any of the above - its a theory and if it's not the Dr. than I feel bad for suspecting him - maybe he's a great guy and an awesome doctor. Its just that his house is direct line-of-sight from his balcony to Gus Colleti's front stoop and I suspect his house would be the next place that I would run to if I were in fear that JB or someone from the "party" was really going to shoot, stab or otherwise kill me. I also suspect the Dr. would have heard the commotion at Gus' house and had time to come up with a quick plan. "Come on inside, I'm a doctor and can help you" probably would work pretty well. So would a commercially available stun gun/taser that would logically be used on a "trespasser".
14) LE should pretend to be a locum tenens recruiter with a job opportunity in a nice beach town. Get him to come in for an interview and give him a cup of coffee and collect the DNA and test it. You might get him for the Newark serial killings (if that was indeed him AND they actually have any DNA evidence) but his later-life sophistication and understanding of DNA technology (and how to remove and destroy his own DNA) would be too adept for the LI murders (the Dr. co-published a potato DNA sequence analysis as an undergrad, for instance). There may be other murders around the world that he committed where he left DNA earlier in his "career", so I would check it against all international DNA databases for sure. I would also sweep the area of Loop Parkway that I mentioned with cadaver dogs or hyperspectral imaging. SG was not out of her mind when she left JB's house - she was trying to get paid - and she may have fought her attacker and still have DNA residue on her person. I believe that the SK used burlap on purpose because they knew that keeping the body in burlap would allow the body to remain cool in the hot sun, allowing bacteria and microorganisms to flourish, thereby rapidly and permanently destroying any DNA evidence. Very smart. Not the standard bleach job suggested by TV crime shows, and quite creative since other materials like plastic would easily break down in the elements and would make the body heat up rather than remain cool and moist. The dryer the body, the more DNA would be available is my guess. Burlap is almost a too perfect choice to be by chance - this SK knows exactly what he's doing.
15) CPH looks guilty b/c he made calls to SG, etc. He's not the SK IMO. The real SK would never be that dumb (not that CPH is dumb, just that the real SK would not poke his head up like that). CPH just looks guilty because: (a) he was framed, and (b) he is doing what any one of us would have done in a similar situation - try and help the family of a missing woman. Where did he get SG's sister's phone number? Who knows, but he most likely got it from Diaz, Pak or SG's mom. But he never saw SG that night. She never made it to Labrador Ct., IMO. CPH is not a sociopath. He's invested in the community, he's got a family. We're looking for a real psycho, a mental loner with way above average IQ and plenty of time and money on his hands, not a do-gooder that became a suspect because of his own haphazard fumbling around in the investigation. If the SK had never made that call pretending he was CPH, we would never suspect or be having a conversation about CPH because CPH never would have come up in the investigation to begin with. Its not him. The person we're looking for is a deceiver who can repeatedly deceive street-smart women, their protectors/drivers/pimps, their families and LE. Doctors are expert at deception and do it all the time, especially in life and death situations.
Any thoughts on the theory?
