NY - LISK Bodies found as of December 10, 2011 Thread #13

[To Kill a Mockingbird]

Does anyone know "officially" how long the cops looked for Shannan the morning of May 1, 2010? Was it 10 minutes? 60 minutes?

 

[Seaslug44]

<Modsnip> I did grow up on the south shore, and spent many nights when I was in high school hanging out in the Oak Beach parking lot, which was a pretty cool place to chill, drink beers, etc. I can assure you that "bright" is the last word that I would use to describe anywhere along Ocean Parkway.

As for the above posts regarding temperature, I've posted extensively about this issue and cited local air and water temperatures, as well as increased wind speed, on the day and exact hour that Shannan went missing. Water temperature is absolutely relevant since this is a tidal marsh. I've also cited studies that show how long it takes for hypothermia to take hold in these conditions, and its less than 1 hour. I've cited "paradoxical undressing" as a common reason for someone to remove their clothes as hypothermia sets in.

You are looking at aerial maps and believe that Shannan could see lights from within the area where she was found. I disagree. These is not some field of waist-high wheat that she was frolicking through. The police were having an impossible and dangerous time trying to get in there. In the pictures I saw, the "reeds" were taller than the police. Lighting doesn't even matter anyhow. Even if she could see the lights, by all accounts she was irrationally running away from help and safety.

Let us not forget the dense fog every morning along Ocean Parkway that month due to the warm air and cold water temps mixing.

 

[Seaslug44]

Ok Inspector, lets let the fellow sleuthers decide if someone could become lost and disoriented in this area.

And if all the street lights, tall houses and the sounds of cars passing on ocean parkway aren't enough to keep you from getting disoriented, remember there is a LIGHTHOUSE with a strobe-light that shines every 7.5 seconds and is visible for many many miles. The notion of anyone becoming disoriented there is laughable.


"Today the light is lit by two 1000-watt bulbs, which rotate in a counter-clockwise direction, giving the appearance of a flash every 7.5 seconds. The light is visible for approximately 21-24 miles. "

- http://www.fireislandlighthouse.com/html/lighthouse_history.html

you obviously have no clue about the area because if you did then you would know that the lighthouse is not visible from the area around the oak beach guard booth or along Ocena Parkway. Also, add a little fog and it is invisible almost 100 yards away. It is also not always on the light at 5am

 

[Reannan]

The biggest problem I have with SG accidentally drowning, is the fact that her body was found so close to the road, and her purse, jeans, and cell phone were found on the other side of the "marsh", "wetlands", "swamp", "mud bog", "brush", whatever you want to call the area she was running through. I can certainly see a scenario where she got stuck in mud so deep that her jeans would have gotten pulled off. If this happened, however, she would have been screaming loudly for help. I just don't see anyone as boisterous and dramatic as SG seemed to be, quietly pulling herself out of quicksand, leaving her jeans behind, and then running quietly through the brush to land in a "ditch", "pool", whatever when she was almost out on the road. People would have been looking for her by the time this was happening. Surely, she would have been screaming.

 

[scandi]

The biggest problem I have with SG accidentally drowning, is the fact that her body was found so close to the road, and her purse, jeans, and cell phone were found on the other side of the "marsh", "wetlands", "swamp", "mud bog", "brush", whatever you want to call the area she was running through. I can certainly see a scenario where she got stuck in mud so deep that her jeans would have gotten pulled off. If this happened, however, she would have been screaming loudly for help. I just don't see anyone as boisterous and dramatic as SG seemed to be, quietly pulling herself out of quicksand, leaving her jeans behind, and then running quietly through the brush to land in a "ditch", "pool", whatever when she was almost out on the road. People would have been looking for her by the time this was happening. Surely, she would have been screaming.

Hi Reanan, ITA. We just had a post {will have to go find it} which stated there was only 2"'s of rain that fell in the 2 weeks before Shannan went missing. Crazy how people keep talking about her drowning or sinking into mud, IMO ;}
The post is on this page - #463 by Just K. Inspctrgadget's following post says it is a tidal marsh and that the 2" of rain is misleading.

I wish we had a local who could remember that area in early May.

 

[KateNY]

Now imagine the woods were mucky up to your hips with close to freezing wet mud.

RSBM


Is it known for certain, that the water/muck was hip deep? (Sorry if I missed that)

Makes ya wonder why someone would run into hip-deep muck..and not away from it.

 

[KateNY]

For that matter, the moon was 89% full on the night SG went missing. A nearly full moon, on a clear night, will reflect in any pooling water. She would have seen the water and her mother says that she was deathly afraid of water.

http://www.almanac.com/weather/history/zipcode/11701/2010-05-01
In the two weeks preceding SG's disappearance, the total accumulated rainfall was about TWO INCHES.

RSBM

That was my next question-- moonlight

thanks for the info

and the rainfall

 

[Reannan]

Hi Reanan, ITA. We just had a post {will have to go find it} which stated there was only 2"'s of rain that fell in the 2 weeks before Shannan went missing. Crazy how people keep talking about her drowning or sinking into mud, IMO ;}
The post is on this page - #463 by Just K. Inspctrgadget's following post says it is a tidal marsh and that the 2" of rain is misleading.

I wish we had a local who could remember that area in early May.

I also wish we had some concrete data about that land and how wet or dry it can get. I am disappointed that no one from the local media has gone out there and covered this angle. How different is the terrain where SG was found vs. where the other bodies were found?

 

[Theforeigner]

I also wish we had some concrete data about that land and how wet or dry it can get. I am disappointed that no one from the local media has gone out there and covered this angle. How different is the terrain where SG was found vs. where the other bodies were found?

Concerning water level/depth in the marsharea back in May 2010, here is what police have said:

" under two to three feet"


http://www.newsday.com/news/breaking...eath-1.3388774

Quote:
Mari Gilbert said she's waiting for autopsy results but doesn't buy the theory that her daughter ran into the marshy land, which police have said would have been under two to three feet of water at the time.She said her daughter was afraid of water and did not know how to swim.

"If she would've felt wetness, she would have turned around," Gilbert said.


Note!!! that there is a lot of interesting info in the link by Dr Baden on how they can find out wheter she drowned or not even if the remains are skelton + more.

 

[MrsPC]

doesn't amount to anything but Hackett's wife is head of the Heritage program of savethebeaches.net (I know this was previously posted about...)

but I hadn't realized til a couple days ago that they actually have a web cam setup at Oak Beach but it's only viewable during daylight hours I guess (and it says it shows the sunrise over the wetlands so I'm assuming it possibly captures the area where Gilbert was found ??)

http://www.savethebeaches.net/Camdata.html

the cam is up on the home page

http://www.savethebeaches.net/

 

[Seaslug44]

Apples to oranges. A camera miles away pointing at the bay.

 

[MrsPC]

Apples to oranges. A camera miles away pointing at the bay.

yep I can see that....but I wasn't sure what locations the cam actually pointed to so thought I would post the link to see.

have a good day if you can :seeya:

 

[shadowraiths]

Thanks for the webcam headsup, MrsPC!

Here's the cam pic, which takes stills. Note, this pic will change, as this is a direct embed of the cam. The date & timestamp are reflected on the pic, so if anyone sees something interesting, that they want to share, please be sure to do a right-click, save as, and then upload that pic.

As for what really occurred? I am admittedly on the fence.

For example, there is the early report ( link ):

Gilbert's mother Mari Gilbert told WABC 7 that "[Gilbert's] last phone call was 23 minutes to 911 when she was grabbed and pulled into a truck."​

This report is bothersome on a number of levels, the least of which, from later reports, Shannan initiated the 23 minute call while still at Brewers. If the above is indeed what occurred, then she had to have been on the phone with the 911 ops while not only knocking on GC's door, and btw, allegedly falling down his steps ( link ), but also, when knocking on BB's door ( link ), then darting off, only to be picked up by the truck.

Within the context of this scenario, if LE did, in fact, tell Mari the Shannan was pulled into a truck, then there is no way, imho, they could not suspect foul play. Moreover, consider the search resulting in the discovery of the GB4, et al. Each time they found remains, they thought they might belong to Shannan. Again, indicating, at least to me, that they suspected foul play. And, finally top it off with the fact that they gave JB & Pak LDTs ( link ), and asked CPH to take one also ( link ), along with the fact that they searched properties with cadaver dogs, again, supports the contention that they expected foul play.

Otoh, I could see, if she was dx'd with Bipolar I, and was doing drugs (or slipped something), having a psychotic break, resulting in her unfortunate end. This sort of thing could explain both her behavior (i.e., running off when GC & others phoned 911), as well as running into the marsh, discarding clothes, etc. In this scenario, her heightened anxiety along with temps and the fact that it was, at the very least, wet, would increase the likelihood of succumbing to hypothermia. Of course, this is a scenario based upon specific criteria.

I guess the biggest prob I have with the whole thing is the unfolding of events... Woman makes a frantic 911 call, goes missing. After much pressure from her family, LE finally starts searching. LE turns up 10 bodies, none belonging to the woman. Then, nearly a year later, they find the woman. Am not sure how to phrase this but... well, it almost seems just too... idunno, convenient. Possibly even staged.

 

[Dwntwnslim]

Thanks for the webcam headsup, MrsPC!

Here's the cam pic, which takes stills. Note, this pic will change, as this is a direct embed of the cam. The date & timestamp are reflected on the pic, so if anyone sees something interesting, that they want to share, please be sure to do a right-click, save as, and then upload that pic.

As for what really occurred? I am admittedly on the fence.

For example, there is the early report ( link ):

Gilbert's mother Mari Gilbert told WABC 7 that "[Gilbert's] last phone call was 23 minutes to 911 when she was grabbed and pulled into a truck."​

This report is bothersome on a number of levels, the least of which, from later reports, Shannan initiated the 23 minute call while still at Brewers. If the above is indeed what occurred, then she had to have been on the phone with the 911 ops while not only knocking on GC's door, and btw, allegedly falling down his steps ( link ), but also, when knocking on BB's door ( link ), then darting off, only to be picked up by the truck.

Within the context of this scenario, if LE did, in fact, tell Mari the Shannan was pulled into a truck, then there is no way, imho, they could not suspect foul play. Moreover, consider the search resulting in the discovery of the GB4, et al. Each time they found remains, they thought they might belong to Shannan. Again, indicating, at least to me, that they suspected foul play. And, finally top it off with the fact that they gave JB & Pak LDTs ( link ), and asked CPH to take one also ( link ), along with the fact that they searched properties with cadaver dogs, again, supports the contention that they expected foul play.

Otoh, I could see, if she was dx'd with Bipolar I, and was doing drugs (or slipped something), having a psychotic break, resulting in her unfortunate end. This sort of thing could explain both her behavior (i.e., running off when GC & others phoned 911), as well as running into the marsh, discarding clothes, etc. In this scenario, her heightened anxiety along with temps and the fact that it was, at the very least, wet, would increase the likelihood of succumbing to hypothermia. Of course, this is a scenario based upon specific criteria.

I guess the biggest prob I have with the whole thing is the unfolding of events... Woman makes a frantic 911 call, goes missing. After much pressure from her family, LE finally starts searching. LE turns up 10 bodies, none belonging to the woman. Then, nearly a year later, they find the woman. Am not sure how to phrase this but... well, it almost seems just too... idunno, convenient. Possibly even staged.

I was wondering if you would be more specific as to what you mean by the following quote?

"Am not sure how to phrase this but... well, it almost seems just too... idunno, convenient. Possibly even staged."

I am curious as to what your thoughts are on the subject.

Thanks!

 

[Tugela]

It seems like TS is suggesting that it would be difficult to get lost when one has so many good landmarks...the light house light, the street lights on OP, traffic noise to her left and in front of her, the sound of the surf, off in the distance behind her, the sun rising to her right and the lights, off in the distance of the Robt. Moses Bridge.

Just seems ridiculous to suggest that she got lost, froze to death in 55* air temps or drowned in a puddle....when it hadn't rained for quite a long time. Not to mention the fact that a helicopter and dogs were on the hunt for her by 9:00 A M...just a little more than three hours after she supposedly ran into the brushy field behind so many houses.

If she was on drugs then it is entirely plausible. She might simply have died where she did through a combination of OD and panic.

 

[Just K]

If she was on drugs then it is entirely plausible. She might simply have died where she did through a combination of OD and panic.

That's true but still, why didn't the dogs or the helicopter spot/find Shannan or any of her belongings...if she could get across the distance of the brushy tangle to within 150 feet of the road...then why couldn't the search dog/dogs?

 

[waltzingmatilda]

Just an FYI.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46176341/ns/us_news-weird_news/

Fire crews and preserve officers responded and found a "male subject stuck on a reed island about a hundred yards from the west bank of the river," the report said.

Crews deployed an air boat and used a pulley system to lift the man from the mud and water, and up a hill.

 

[Just K]

Just an FYI.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46176341/ns/us_news-weird_news/

Fire crews and preserve officers responded and found a "male subject stuck on a reed island about a hundred yards from the west bank of the river," the report said.

Crews deployed an air boat and used a pulley system to lift the man from the mud and water, and up a hill.

Wow, and it was 20-30* colder for both highs and lows and he was stuck in river muck. Here is the January weather history for Albuquerque, NM
http://www.weather.com/weather/monthly/USNM0004

 

[waltzingmatilda]

Wow, and it was 30* colder for both highs and lows and he was stuck in river muck. Here is the January weather history for Albuquerque, NM
http://www.weather.com/weather/monthly/USNM0004

BRRRR!!!! How in the world did he not get hypothermia?

wm

 

[the quiet girl]

and he lasted for 3 days...