NY - LISK Bodies found as of December 10, 2011 Thread #13

[MrsPC]

I'm not seeing the water in any of the area where Gilbert was found. I do see the water across from The Fairway.

??

 

[inspctrgadget]

I'm not seeing the water in any of the area where Gilbert was found. I do see the water across from The Fairway.

??

I updated my post to include the images and arrows to the visible water.

 

[inspctrgadget]

OK, so as it turns out the map on Bing isn't 2010, even though there appears to be a 2010 copyright there.

If you look at the metadata, (using http://mvexel.dev.openstreetmap.org/bing/#)...

...You see that this image in question was taken in March 2011 (I've indicated with arrows on the attached image where the metadata shows Mar 2011).

So this picture is not indicative of how the area looked in 2010. As far as I can tell, there was not nearly the amount of rainfall January-April 2011 as there was in 2010. The March 31 image of severe flooding at Jones Beach is much more indicative of the conditions in 2010.

 

[Just K]

We just disagree. You will not change everyone's mind.

 

[Mimimak]

I don't know if the LISK of the GB4 killed Shannan or not. I just don't buy the theory of accidental drowning given what we know. And it seems especially suspicious that she was found so close to the bodies of the other missing sex workers. I know I don't have anything new to contribute but my common sense and JMHO for whatever it's worth. I think LE is either keeping their true opinions close to the vest or they are grossly incompetent. I enjoy reading everyone's opinions. Thanks for letting me put in my two cents. And for the sake of the families and any future victims, I hope they catch the killer or killers very soon.

 

[inspctrgadget]

We just disagree. You will not change everyone's mind.

That's OK. I would have disagreed with myself only 2 months ago, so I understand where you're coming from.

I've provided photographs of what the flooded area south of Ocean Parkway looked like in the prior 30 days. I've shown that this area is not a dry field, but can be filled with 3-4 feet of water or more. I've provided examples of situations where others have become stuck in similar conditions and have perished from hypothermia. I've shown that hypothermia has a fast onset when water temps are 50 degrees. The US Coast Guard says that someone in 50 degree water temperatures for 50 minutes has a 50 percent chance of survival.

There are a number of completely independent people who claim SG was delusional that night. She had bipolar, and used cocaine and ecstasy.

The mystery "rehab" conversation between CPH and Mari has been debunked by police and thoroughly explained here on this board to the point where a thoughtful person could review the statements and points of fact and ultimately explain the "confusion" on Mari's part. It took me many months to understand what happened here, and led me on two wild goose chases.

I must admit that it is coincidental that Shannan perished near a serial killer's graveyard and that she was telling 911 that "they" were trying to kill her.

I feel that these two coincidences mislead me for almost a year to believe that there was absolutely no way that her death was not connected to the GB4. At this point, I've changed my mind. I think there's an overwhelming probability that these coincidences are just that - coincidences. Life can be stranger than fiction.

 

[Just K]

I just wonder if they found the blonde wig that she was wearing...and if so, where was it found? If not where did go?

No matter what happened to Shannan, there are likely only three scenarios.

Either she was dead or alive in that open land space between the houses and the Ocean Parkway and LE and dog searches, on the morning of May 1st, were less than adequate or she was taken out of that community, before the sun rose, and she and her belongings were dumped when the LE activity calmed down.

An accidental death does not help LE's image. If that is even remotely true, LE blew it by not looking in an area she was running toward!

If Shannan was chased through the open area and struggled with someone, there would have been even more commotion.

If she was taken out of the community before sunrise and dumped there later...what better way to cast suspicion on someone in Oak Beach or Suffolk County. But, Wouldn't someone have reported MP or another driver picking her up?

If the SK is at all involved with SG, she may have been there to be groomed by one of the guest or the host. She may have started the 911 call in the bathroom. It sure would be nice to know who the police interviewed on the morning of May 1, 2010 and if they looked in anyone's house for SG.

 

[Just K]

One thing that is possible is that someone, in a vehicle, just drove out the other end of the community. There is an entrance into Oak Beach, onto the OP, via Oak Beach Road. It is in the opposite direction of where Shannan ran. (In the direction of Sore Thumb.)
Does Anyone Know?:
Is there a gate there and/or any cameras?

I found this exit by accident as a turnaround there for people to go in either direction on the OP caught my eye.

 

[Mimimak]

I wondered what happened to the wig also.

 

[dcgrumpy]

One thing that is possible is that someone, in a vehicle, just drove out the other end of the community. There is an entrance into Oak Beach, onto the OP, via Oak Beach Road. It is in the opposite direction of where Shannan ran. (In the direction of Sore Thumb.)
Does Anyone Know?:
Is there a gate there and/or any cameras?

I found this exit by accident as a turnaround there for people to go in either direction on the OP caught my eye.

Do you mean on the other side of the OBI parking lot? There is no gate on that side. But you would have to drive out of the gated entrance to get to the other side

 

[MrsPC]

Wow, and you can clearly see water!

Look on the left of the picture. You're much better off if you use Bing and zoom in using Bird's Eye view.

But its clear as day. Those dark spots to the left are obviously water - probably the deepest part of the marsh. The crisscrossing tracks (hard to see in your image) - those are all drainage canals. Now imagine how this must have looked in May after record floods and a nor'easter.


Images attached...

your 1st photo linked does not show water where her remains were found...it just shows some very sporadic/patchy areas where there may have been water near where her pants, phone were found.

 

[dc20015]

OK, so as it turns out the map on Bing isn't 2010, even though there appears to be a 2010 copyright there.

If you look at the metadata, (using http://mvexel.dev.openstreetmap.org/bing/#)...

...You see that this image in question was taken in March 2011 (I've indicated with arrows on the attached image where the metadata shows Mar 2011).

So this picture is not indicative of how the area looked in 2010. As far as I can tell, there was not nearly the amount of rainfall January-April 2011 as there was in 2010. The March 31 image of severe flooding at Jones Beach is much more indicative of the conditions in 2010.

Just a curiosity question as I'm trying to get a mental picture here of the situation and how to interpret the photos.... Didn't that area have snowpack all Winter last year that would've melted around March? I remember the one big storm on Boxing Day because it totally missed us down here in the lower mid-Atlantic (our year was the year before when we got slammed thrice with storms) and at least one more big one up there. I'm a bit of a weather geek and follow storm boards when something is brewing and I remember everyone worrying about what was going to happen when the snowpack melted in NY/NJ in the Spring. Would that have affected the wetness levels at that time (March 2011)? I mean, like maybe it wasn't as wet as when SG went missing, but it was still pretty wet? I could be off. I'm just thinking.

 

[MrsPC]

according to weatherunderground,

there was --

6.25 in rain in Feb 2010
9.41 in rain in March 2010
2.78 in rain April 2010

Gilbert vanished May 1, 2010...one would think that much of the moisture would have receded/evaporated/soaked into the ground.....whatever

 

[Just K]

according to weatherunderground,

there was --

6.25 in rain in Feb 2010
9.41 in rain in March 2010
2.78 in rain April 2010

Gilbert vanished May 1, 2010...one would think that much of the moisture would have receded/evaporated/soaked into the ground.....whatever

I checked the average precipitation rates for March and April for Oak Beach and Gilgo. The combined average total is 8.72. So, in 2010 the combined March and April totals were 12.19". That is about 3.5" more than the average. So, one can figure that those extra inches would take a little while longer than usual to dissipate. But, in the last two weeks of April there was very little precipitation in that entire area. In fact, the month of April was about 65% the average for the month. It was 2.78 versus 4.31.

http://www.clrsearch.com/Oak_Beach_Demographics/NY/11702/

 

[MrsPC]

I checked the average precipitation rates for March and April for Oak Beach and Gilgo. The combined average total is 8.72. So, in 2010 the combined March and April totals were 12.19". That is about 3.5" more than the average. So, one can figure that those extra inches would take a little while longer than usual to dissipate. But, in the last two weeks of April there was very little precipitation in that entire area. In fact, the month of April was about 65% the average for the month. I was 2.78 versus 4.31.

http://www.clrsearch.com/Oak_Beach_Demographics/NY/11702/

plus they had a lot of sunshiney days and it was spring & the vegetation would have also consumed some of the moisture

 

[the quiet girl]

IMO, if there are large puddles sporadicly in the marsh and throughout the grounds that land is soaked. At the very least mud in odd places where the water is not. There must be water patches also not visible.

However to me that does not mean she drowned.

I want to know where all her belongings are they did not find everything and items that would get tossed around by water, snow do not land in the same area. My biggest issue here, I just do not know what happened to her.

Come on ME!

 

[truthspider]

Because everything was underwater until they drained the area. No way anything stayed in one spot under water. And even with the water drained, they still were digging in the drainage ditches to find some of her belongings.

Fluke has a perfectly logical explanation for why her belongings would be at the bottom of one of the drainage ditches, and he is closer to the flame than everybody on this forum, except maybe 1 person.

 

[MrsPC]

and posting this again for posterity - the area where her remains was found was only 100 ft from the road. the land slopes *downward* from the road and there appears to be no water in that area

http://www.newsday.com/news/breaking/map-the-night-shannan-vanished-1.3387808

 

[Just K]

I wondered what happened to the wig also.

I'm not going to say what I believe yet because I don't want them to find a way to explain it all away. But, if it comes out that the wig was found and the location of the recovery is announced, then I will state my theories.

 

[Just K]

Fluke has a perfectly logical explanation for why her belongings would be at the bottom of one of the drainage ditches, and he is closer to the flame than everybody on this forum, except maybe 1 person.

Do you think that they are trying to get the public to believe that Shannan floated uphill to her final resting place. If there was all that motion of the pooled water, then wouldn't she have ended washing downhill and wind up in someone's backyard? And, wouldn't the water be the highest in the lowest part of the open space?