I think Marisela Guerrero is a great match, and should be submitted!
The similarities:
Marisela was
• a Hispanic female
• 51 years old
• 5'0"–5'2"
• 190–260 lbs, i.e., probably at least a size XL
• last seen in "New York County", i.e., Manhattan
• last seen on Saturday, October 1, 2016.
UP17517 was

a Hispanic female (as Namus narrows down under Circumstances)

40–65 years old

5'0"–5'4"

wore XXL tops and
GapBody/
Lululemon XL bottoms (see size charts)

was found in Riverside Park, in Manhattan

died "months" before being found on Thursday, February 1, 2018.
Now for the differences:
Hair Length
Marisela had "brown short hair," whereas "UP17517 had "long brown wavy/curly hair." But
@carbuff pointed out, "short" and "long" are relative descriptions. I might say Marisela's hair looks long and wavy in her second photo on Namus.
Clothing
Marisela was last seen wearing a pink sweater and black pants. She also carried a pocketbook and did
not carry a cellphone. But UP17517 had dark a black hoodie, blue/purple yoga pants, a black runner's pack, and iPhone headphones.
However, in a post dated October 9, 2016, the Facebook group "New York Lostnmissing" appears to preserve an earlier version of the Namus account, which states Marisela was last seen
at 10:00 a.m. Could she have returned home at some point later in the day, and changed into a jogging outfit without being seen? It was a Saturday, so maybe she was off work, and it was her custom to go jogging on weekends.
Time of Death
Marisela's Namus case was created on Wednesday, October 5, 2016, four days after she was last seen. UP17517 was found on Thursday, February 1, 2018, having died "months" earlier in 2017, as she was "partially skeletonized." If it's Marisela, could her body really have lain there for 16 months without being seen?
I think it's possible. If she was in a "wooded area off of a
bicycle path" according to the description, then cyclists would've missed her, as they're riding fast and keeping their eyes on the path. And there wouldn't be many pedestrians, since walking and biking paths are usually separate.