OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #13

[CN2Souls]

You can get the raw statistics with a small amount of analysis here (you will need Adobe Acrobat reader):

http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/

Here are two websites that condense the statistics and provide some analysis:

http://www.csom.org/pubs/mythsfacts.html

http://www.atsa.com/ppOffenderFacts.html

Sorry for shouting, in last post.

Also those stats are incorrect, those are done by the people who are trying to get funding for their work. In addition, they are 10 years old. They do not have the tracking that is available today, which is more accurate.

From the picture at the PC what is the distance/ circumference (miles) around the school that they searched?

 

[GrainneDhu]

can you show some stats to rehabed pedo's???? I will never ever believe they can change.....ever

If you will "never ever believe" it, then I fail to see the point in asking me to provide statistics.

 

[eyes4crime]

Respectfully, I disagree that pedophiles cannot be rehabilitated. FBI statistics show that the recidivism rate for pedophiles is actually the same or lower than that for other crimes.

In this case, the context in which I recall LE saying that this was an isolated incident was in relation to questions about the other students returning to the school. In that sense, LE is almost overwhelmingly guaranteed to be correct; I cannot recall nor can I find a single case of a child being abducted from inside an elementary school and then having a repeat incident at the same school within 2-4 weeks (which would cover the remainder of the school year).

Right now, that school is probably the safest place for children in the USA. It is surrounded by LEOs who are on the lookout for any sort of suspicious activity. If my child went to that school, I wouldn't automatically keep my child at home. They would be safer in that school than they would be buckled into their child safety seats in my vehicle.

The recidivism rate is only lower because they are now smarter, clever, more cunning, more manipulative, and well versed pedophiles who learned a lot in prison and who have become experts at NOT getting caught. AND a so-called decease in recidivism provides jobs. mho moo

 

[SoCalSleuth]

Think about it. LE has refused to comment on the last time or place Kyron was seen. They have not commented on his best friend's statement that he said he was going to look at an electricity project. That speaks volumes. There was a crowd at the fair. There were parents coming and going. There were kids in classrooms and those classrooms have windows. Do you really think there was not one witness who saw Kyron leaving the school? They know how Kyron left and with whom, jmho.

 

[JulieAnne]

I work for a law enforcement organization. There is a 67% return rate (to prison) across the board (ETA: where I am from) and much higher for those convicted of sexually deviant behavior. I'd be very interested in seeing statistics to refute that as well.

I am not comfortable discussing the picture issue anymore :silenced: . Call me bizarre and accusatory if you must - oh! I guess you already did :blushing:.

 

[Reannan]

:twocents: There are elements in this case that reminds me of several other cases. The Groene case - a child (children) are abruptly missing, and the family is naturally discussed as a potential suspect. In the Groene case, however, there was a violent murder of other family members. The sheer violence is what screamed someone who was close to the family. As far as I can tell, there is NO history of violence, drugs, calls to social services, etc. in Kyron's case. Susan Smith case and Devon Epps case - Susan's children were "taken by a stranger" and Amanda Raegan Smith's child Devon was murdered before her very eyes during an attempted carjacking by the proverbial "bushy headed stranger". Time revealed Susan and Amanda to be the culprits in the murder of their children. The body language of Susan and Amanda disturbed me during those investigations. I have to say I have the same "feelings" now... can't explain why. If the school was FULL of strangers the day Kyron went missing, the chances of a 'bad person' being among them naturally increased. The chances for someone, having seen Kyron walking out with a stranger, someone acting strange... something, should have also increased. Just my :twocents:.

 

[Bee Charmer]

I'm confident they have something because of the request for photos and videos from specific locations. IMO, they are searching for a specific vehicle in those areas.

 

[jokie7348]

If this is the man who saw the white pick up, with a female driver, his name was revealed in an article, iirc. Try searching the local papers for that article.

I confess to being a little curious about that white pick up myself.

Thanks, Bee for your reply. I do know the man's name, obviously can't post it here. Still, I am unable to find info on him. It just seemed strange that he popped up with this information. Probably just my devious mind, but still....:waitasec:

 

[oceanblueeyes]

ATSA is well known for skewing data. I don't know about the others. But I will say this, there is no way that any "statistics" can make me think they are capable of rehabilitation. If you KNEW they had done it before would you leave your child with them?

These statistics are absolutely flawed imo.

Excerpt:
Myth:
"The majority of sexual offenders are caught, convicted, and in prison."

Fact:
Only a fraction of those who commit sexual assault are apprehended and convicted for their crimes. Most convicted sex offenders eventually are released to the community under probation or parole supervision.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I find this extremely hard to believe. I hope you can produce some sort of source for these statistics.

I have done so.

Anyone else remember the hysteria about Satanic Ritual Abuse from the 80s/90s? Unlike that hysteria, there are some real statistics about pedophiles and sex offenders in general. However, many reporters seem not to have discovered the Department of Justice's website. Or at least, you can't tell they have by what they write.

 

[pufnstuf]

Now that the search for Kyron has turned into a criminal investigation, I have held in my mind something that might be a possibility. Remember the man who reported the sighting of a car once in the afternoon and once in the early morning hours. I can't help wondering about him. I know we can't sleuth publicly on anyone who has not been named a POI, but there is a lack of info available on him. I can't even find the address although he lives near the school. Some of you super-sleuthers might have a go at this. I'm not a sleuther....just a lurker. JMOO

His address has already been found. He very much has a home close to the school. The road that he lives on is very secluded.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=e...615959,-122.904053&spn=0.547524,1.023102&z=10

 

[nao]

Ethan was in the news alot, and Kyron resembles him somewhat.
What if it triggered a - Rescue Response - in some eccentric local character, or some one who has lost a child to CPS or violence?
My theory is its a mental health situation, they are checking alot of differt rural areas - which would require local knowledge. The search seems carefull as in not trying to spook someone. Maybe they do know who but the person is capable of -"going bush" or "living rough". I live rural- school events are a major entertainment, mayhem, over exicited kids, uncles, aunts - everyone comes whether they have kids or not. On those days there is no security - we have not lost our innocence out here yet.
I have lived inner-inner city- i have found rural living much the same - alot of acceptance of eccentric people.
My theory LE knows who it is and thought they would catch up with them fast, but have now lost them. IMO JMO MOO

 

[No More]

You can get the raw statistics with a small amount of analysis here (you will need Adobe Acrobat reader):

http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/

Here are two websites that condense the statistics and provide some analysis:

http://www.csom.org/pubs/mythsfacts.html

http://www.atsa.com/ppOffenderFacts.html

IMO it is not an apples and apples comparison when discussing the recidivism of pedophiles to other criminals:

1. Recidivism statistics are based on LE catching someone for a subsequent offense. If they are older and smarter, they don't get caught, and therefore no stat to add to recidivism.

2. Pedo's are in theory monitored through the RSO program and parole officers. Being watched by LE may reduce further offenses, but it does not speak to any rehabilitation.

3. Some states are locking up pedo's indefinitely. They cannot reoffend because people in those states have decided a child is more important than playing statistical chances on whether or not a pedo will harm a child again.

4. There is a small community of psychiatrists and social workers who are vested in the rehabilitation camp. IMO this is also the same group that leans towards defining every unacceptable behavior as a curable sickness, instead of bad decision making and the fact that some people are just plain evil.

 

[Reannan]

Think about it. LE has refused to comment on the last time or place Kyron was seen. They have not commented on his best friend's statement that he said he was going to look at an electricity project. That speaks volumes. There was a crowd at the fair. There were parents coming and going. There were kids in classrooms and those classrooms have windows. Do you really think there was not one witness who saw Kyron leaving the school? They know how Kyron left and with whom, jmho.

Exactly what I was saying!! That many people around - someone had to see something! LE knows a LOT more than they are saying. The other thing that reminds of the Devon Epps case, is the way LE is talking - or not talking - they are busy collecting evidence to get a good conviction. Doesn't have to be the parents - could be a teacher.... a janitor.... another parent.... the way LE is interacting with the public indicates they know a WHOLE lot more than they are telling us.

 

[STEADFAST]

First, I would hope people can distinguish between a suspicion and an accusation. You can't control a suspicion, but you can control an accusation.

I don't understand how not suspecting someone in a family is the same as being compassionate towards the family. It doesn't take any compassion to refrain from posting about someone if you don't suspect them in the first place.

The posters demonstrating true compassion for this family are those who suspect a member of it but are not posting their suspicions at this time. We really can't tell who those people are, can we?

 

[redkatrampant]

Can we please bring this back to Kyron? I think the issue that is being debated is just taking away from the discussion.
I don't want to see any of you take vacations.

 

[lillygator]

I can state as a professional and can use my computer data base as “link” evidence having worked in a prison for 10 year as a shrink for pedophiles they are not rehabilitated!
They reoffend 95% of the time and the others escalate and become murders.

:banghead:

thank you.

 

[darlin gal]

The recidivism rate is only lower because they are now smarter, clever, more cunning, more manipulative, and well versed pedophiles who learned a lot in prison and who have become experts at NOT getting caught. AND a so-called decease in recidivism provides jobs. mho moo

Exactly.

Plus statistically pedophiles have MANY MANY victims before they get caught, so it would make more sense that now being smarter, clever, more cunning and manipulative, they could have MANY MANY more before ever being caught again.


jmo

 

[eyes4crime]

I hope it is okay that I post this...

I am in the camp that has kept quiet b/c of what I think is *likely* to have happened - I have two different scenarios. With that being said, I'm not sure that I would like to be able to freely say in these forums everything that I am thinking. The main reason is this: I was one of the ones who just KNEW that little Somer had fallen victim to a family member. Even now with the actual culprit in custody, my intellect knows the truth but my gut can't shake my original thought about family. Mostly b/c of things I learned about certain people that cast them in a questionable light. And countless people knew details about their personal life that I don't think anyone would want known to the public. Because much of it is different that my own values and lifestyle, I took it as evidence that they must be "bad" and involved in Somer's disappearance. In the end, they were all innocent. But because of what I know about their private lives, I now have to remind myself of that when I think of them: they're innocent.

I still have my hunches here, and am sleuthing in private. And I'm okay with that. I think it's important not to permanently imprint into people brains (and the internet) that someone is guilty of something as serious as kidnapping and/or murder. Even if innocent, being guilty in the eyes of the public can have devastating consequences on someone's life.

Hope this makes sense.

Thank you for your honesty - in addition to our sleuthing, we all learn important life lessons here at WS - it's a great forum to be part of. Glad you are here. :hug: moo mho

 

[pufnstuf]

Sorry for shouting, in last post.

Also those stats are incorrect, those are done by the people who are trying to get funding for their work. In addition, they are 10 years old. They do not have the tracking that is available today, which is more accurate.

From the picture at the PC what is the distance/ circumference (miles) around the school that they searched?[/SIZE]

Initial search 2 mile radius of school.

Search progressed north east 5-10 miles away from school, along hwy 30 and on Sauvie Island.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=e...615959,-122.904053&spn=0.547524,1.023102&z=10