OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #13

[awakewriter]

Exactly what I was saying!! That many people around - someone had to see something! LE knows a LOT more than they are saying. The other thing that reminds of the Devon Epps case, is the way LE is talking - or not talking - they are busy collecting evidence to get a good conviction. Doesn't have to be the parents - could be a teacher.... a janitor.... another parent.... the way LE is interacting with the public indicates they know a WHOLE lot more than they are telling us.

It also reminds me of LE behavior in the Annie Le case. They knew a lot more than they let on.

 

[pufnstuf]

If you will "never ever believe" it, then I fail to see the point in asking me to provide statistics.

From your own link:

It is also important to recognize that official recidivism statistics are always lower than actual reoffense rates, because some sex offenders commit many sex crimes that go unreported and undetected. It is estimated that less than 10% of all sex crimes result in a criminal conviction. This means that there are many sex offenders in our communities who have not yet been identified.

 

[lillygator]

If you will "never ever believe" it, then I fail to see the point in asking me to provide statistics.

I'd still like some proof to your "factual" statements.

 

[CharlestonGal]

I think people are sometimes confused by the term "pedophile". A vast majority of individuals who are incarcerated for sexual crimes with child victims are not pedophiles. True pedophiles are not as common as people think, but those who fit the diagnostic criteria for pedophilia are indeed very difficult to rehabilitate. We explain the concept to people with the analogy, "If you are a heterosexual, what do you think the chances are I could change your orientation to homosexual?" Pedophilia is the same - it is a deeply entrenched sexual preference, and very difficult to modify. We can't cure the pedophilia, but some people with that diagnosis can, with help - and often chemical castration, modify their behavior and learn to control their impulses to act out. Just like a man who is highly sexually attracted to a woman can control an impulse to sexually attack her, a person who is sexually attracted to a child can control his impulse to sexually attack a child. The pedophilia itself is nearly impossible to change.

Most incarcerated sex offenders I worked with had sexually molested children for a variety of reasons, but the majority of them did not meet diagnostic criteria for pedophilia. Those who did meet criteria were a whole different breed and I was never happy when they were released.

I know everyone is afraid of pedophiles, but I can't say this enough (even though people hate to hear it) children should be warned against strangers sure, but if a child is molested it will overwhelmingly be a relative, friend, neighbor, babysitter, coach, teacher, pastor, sibling or mentor who does it. Not a stranger on the street.

 

[CharlestonGal]

We need to look outside the box. LE is definitely covering family, friends, and associates.

I haven't read what the profiler came up with, do we have it available?

{LE] says "no comment."

 

[GrainneDhu]

ATSA is well known for skewing data. I don't know about the others. But I will say this, there is no way that any "statistics" can make me think they are capable of rehabilitation. If you KNEW they had done it before would you leave your child with them?

I did provide two other sources, including the Department of Justice's raw statistics. Are you contending that the Department of Justice is also suspect?

No, I would not leave my children with a convicted pedophile. I also would not arrange to meet a recovering alcoholic in a tavern for much the same reasons: it is cruel to deliberately tempt someone to do wrong.

Would I feel comfortable living near a convicted sex offender? Sure, I already do. I don't freak out every time I go for a ride in the car, I still go to the hospital if necessary even though I am one of the 180,000 people injured or harmed by a hospital each year, etc.

Your risk/benefit analysis may well differ from mine.

 

[Pensfan]

Respectfully, I disagree that pedophiles cannot be rehabilitated. FBI statistics show that the recidivism rate for pedophiles is actually the same or lower than that for other crimes.

In this case, the context in which I recall LE saying that this was an isolated incident was in relation to questions about the other students returning to the school. In that sense, LE is almost overwhelmingly guaranteed to be correct; I cannot recall nor can I find a single case of a child being abducted from inside an elementary school and then having a repeat incident at the same school within 2-4 weeks (which would cover the remainder of the school year).

Right now, that school is probably the safest place for children in the USA. It is surrounded by LEOs who are on the lookout for any sort of suspicious activity. If my child went to that school, I wouldn't automatically keep my child at home. They would be safer in that school than they would be buckled into their child safety seats in my vehicle.

BBM
Respectfully I present findings from the Mayo Clinic which dispute the bolded claim.

"Just as the prevalence of pedophilia is not accurately known, the rate of recidivism against a child is also unknown. Recidivism is a term with many definitions, which affect reported rates of repeated offenses. For example, some studies look at additional arrests for any offense, others only look at arrests for sexual crimes, and some only look at convictions, whereas others analyze self-reported reoffenses. The data on recidivism underestimate its rate because many treatment studies do not include treatment dropout figures, cannot calculate the number of repeated offenses that are not reported, and do not use polygraphs to confirm self-reports. Another complicating factor is the period during which the data are collected. Some studies report low recidivism rates, but these numbers apply to individuals followed up during periods of active treatment only or for short periods after treatment is terminated (eg, 1-5 years).

The published rates of recidivism are in the range of 10% to 50% for pedophiles depending on their grouping. Some studies have reported that certain classes of pedophiles (eg, homosexual, nonrelated) have the highest rate for repeated offending compared with other sex offenders. Generally, homosexual and bisexual pedophiles have higher recidivism rates than heterosexual pedophiles. Incest pedophiles generally have the lowest rate of reoffense. The more deviant the sexual practices of the offender, the younger the abused child; the more sociopathic or antisocial personality traits displayed, the greater the treatment noncompliance; and the greater the number of paraphilic interests reported by the offender, the higher the likelihood of reoffense."
http://www.mayoclinicproceedings.com/content/82/4/457.full

 

[awakewriter]

In addition to the "Thanks" button, I think we should be able to add a laughing emoticon to the bottom of comments.

 

[awakewriter]

The sex offender conversation is interesting, but could we possibly move it somewhere more appropriate?

 

[mamaeb]

In addition to the "Thanks" button, I think we should be able to add a laughing emoticon to the bottom of comments.

ha... everytime the poster named "laughing" thanks one of my comments... I lol a little thinking they are laughing at my post

 

[GrainneDhu]

The recidivism rate is only lower because they are now smarter, clever, more cunning, more manipulative, and well versed pedophiles who learned a lot in prison and who have become experts at NOT getting caught. AND a so-called decease in recidivism provides jobs. mho moo

That exact argument applies to every other prison inmate out there as well. Do you have a reason to believe that pedophiles are in some way superior at learning than, say, burglars, drug dealers or car thieves?

How does a decrease in recidivism affect jobs? Or rather, how does that offset the loss of jobs caused by fewer re-convicted sex offenders?

 

[redkatrampant]

The sex offender conversation is interesting, but could we possibly move it somewhere more appropriate?

I agree, I asked that a few pages ago.

 

[BeanE]

Very respectfully, no. We were discussing about whether the LE officer had "entrapped" the family by telling them it was ok to go about their "daily activities". I explained that LE needed to assess the family for previous domestic violence, child abuse, intact marriage and etc...to determine if Kyron parent fit the profile of someone who might have murdered their child.
I posted sources for WSers about filicide because this how one learns what attributes and behaviors the FBI is attempting to "assess" in a family with a missing child.

Okay, yes, we were talking about entrapment and I saw you go off-topic to filicide.

The conversation started because of a contention that LE was standing back and passively allowing Kyron's family to do whatever they wanted to do so that they (LE) could passively monitor and profile them.

That is not the case in the context of the beginning conversation. See Stult's statement at the press conference. LE was *actively* telling the family to engage in certainly activities.

Filicide is off-topic IMO because Kyron's biological mother (as well as his stepmother and every other member of his family) has not been named a POI or suspect or been arrested or been charged.

In fact, I'm not sure that Kyron's been murdered at all, let alone by any family member, let alone by his mother.

 

[pufnstuf]

Tee shirts are being given away.

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/06/kyron_horman_t-shirts_availabl.html

 

[eyes4crime]

I think people are sometimes confused by the term "pedophile". A vast majority of individuals who are incarcerated for sexual crimes with child victims are not pedophiles. True pedophiles are not as common as people think, but those who fit the diagnostic criteria for pedophilia are indeed very difficult to rehabilitate. We explain the concept to people with the analogy, "If you are a heterosexual, what do you think the chances are I could change your orientation to homosexual?" Pedophilia is the same - it is a deeply entrenched sexual preference, and very difficult to modify. We can't cure the pedophilia, but some people with that diagnosis can, with help - and often chemical castration, modify their behavior and learn to control their impulses to act out. Just like a man who is highly sexually attracted to a woman can control an impulse to sexually attack her, a person who is sexually attracted to a child can control his impulse to sexually attack a child. The pedophilia itself is nearly impossible to change.

Most incarcerated sex offenders I worked with had sexually molested children for a variety of reasons, but the majority of them did not meet diagnostic criteria for pedophilia. Those who did meet criteria were a whole different breed and I was never happy when they were released.

I know everyone is afraid of pedophiles, but I can't say this enough (even though people hate to hear it) children should be warned against strangers sure, but if a child is molested it will overwhelmingly be a relative, friend, neighbor, babysitter, coach, teacher, pastor, sibling or mentor who does it. Not a stranger on the street.

I've been part of a team that conducted research with chemical castration and I can tell you right now, it was not effective - it did not deter the fantasies of child predators. moo mho

 

[lillygator]

all statistics are skewed....I took enough of those classes in college to know that. Still would like grainneDhu to provide some real proof......

 

[oceanblueeyes]

:twocents: There are elements in this case that reminds me of several other cases. The Groene case - a child (children) are abruptly missing, and the family is naturally discussed as a potential suspect. In the Groene case, however, there was a violent murder of other family members. The sheer violence is what screamed someone who was close to the family. As far as I can tell, there is NO history of violence, drugs, calls to social services, etc. in Kyron's case. Susan Smith case and Devon Epps case - Susan's children were "taken by a stranger" and Amanda Raegan Smith's child Devon was murdered before her very eyes during an attempted carjacking by the proverbial "bushy headed stranger". Time revealed Susan and Amanda to be the culprits in the murder of their children. The body language of Susan and Amanda disturbed me during those investigations. I have to say I have the same "feelings" now... can't explain why. If the school was FULL of strangers the day Kyron went missing, the chances of a 'bad person' being among them naturally increased. The chances for someone, having seen Kyron walking out with a stranger, someone acting strange... something, should have also increased. Just my :twocents:.

I never thought it was a family member or someone known to the Greones who had done this. It made no sense why they would brutally murder the adults and the older son who was large for his age and take two young children. I always felt whomever it was did this was to kidnap the children so they could viciously rape them and sadly Dylan died when facing the monster who took him and raped him repeatedly.

All I feel when I see this family is the same heartrending feeling I had when I saw Steve Greone, Mark Lunsford and others who had their child or loved one ripped away from them. These four people will never be the same. Their world changed when Terri found that Kyron was not on the bus that afternoon. I was so glad to see they were supporting each other today. No one knows their pain like this entire families does. They have to live it day in and day out with no Kyron and very little hope now that he will be found.

I think most everyone knew that Susan Smith's tears were crocodile tears and David's tears were real. It wasnt a shock when she was arrested to me.

Unfortunately I think these events came together as a perfect tsunami the day that Kyron went missing. Everything went wrong that could have. The school putting up on their billboard about the two events being held. The teacher who made an excuse and said Kyron was in the bathroom and didn't even check on him in a few minutes when he didn't return and then marked him absent at 10 am. It is all so bizarre. Tanner saying he saw Terri leave and Tanner saying that he talked with Kyron after then. And a local reporter stating there is another witness who saw Kyron after Tanner did and LE refuses to say who this eye witness is.

It was the perfect day to blend in. When my children had events or my grandchildren have special events at their school I certainly don't know every child there or who their parents are. I assume if I see them with an adult that it is someone in their families. Now because of this case I will probably wonder even though our school system has strict security measures and it is for sure Kyron's school didn't.

Imo, it is because of the school that almost 7 precious hours was lost. We will never know if those 7 hours could have made a drastic difference in how this turned out because Kyron and his family can never get those precious hours back and restart the clock.

IMO

 

[lillygator]

where is Kyron.....that day, that child.....why??

 

[CharlestonGal]

The sex offender conversation is interesting, but could we possibly move it somewhere more appropriate?

I agree. I apologize for adding to it.:blushing:

 

[emmcee]

In addition to the "Thanks" button, I think we should be able to add a laughing emoticon to the bottom of comments.

AND I think there should be an "I agree" button as well.