PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #14

[MissJ]

I knew exactly what you were talking about. I was commenting on specific statements of yours, which include numerous flaws in logic. I expressed no opinion on whether Gricar could have lived on his pension. I can criticize specific comments of yours without addressing every single point that you're trying to make.

My opinions are my opinions.Yours have no more merit than anyone else's.

 

[SuperSmith]

So now you are using their accounts as a fact that he was in the SOS???

 

[Ozoner]

Is your issue that I refuted it where it appeared in your post rather than tracking it back to the original statement? You initially stated that Gricar would have needed significant savings in order to walk away (from his life, his pension, etc.), and that was the main statement I was refuting. In order to support that argument of yours, you accepted the estimate of $4000 per month as a baseline, which is why I also questioned that estimate within the same post.

Incidentally, facts are not the only way to refute an assumption. Another way is to raise a plausible scenario that contradicts the assumption. For instance when I pointed out that Gricar had a lover willing to support him, he would not have needed any savings, that illustrated the flaw in your logic.

The biggest issue with your post is that you use absolutes. E.g., when talking about running away to live in poverty you state, "No one does that . . .," whereas you could have stated, "It's unlikely that someone would do that . . .." You stated, "he would have had to have a huge savings . . ." rather than stating, "he most likely would have needed significant savings." Your credibility suffers when you use absolutes to discuss matters that are far from certain.

Actually, the biggest (unstated) assumption in many of your arguments is the assumption that whatever Gricar did, he must have been acting rationally. People who disappear are not always thinking rationally. Sometimes they're depressed, sometimes they have schizophrenia, etc. If Gricar was running away from "something bad," that something bad may have been in his mind. I acknowledge that it is uncommon for a sane to voluntarily disappear unless driven by fear or financial problems.

Speaking of depression, that tends to run in families, and we already know that Gricar's brother committed suicide. Men are 2.44 times as likely to commit suicide in the two decades following the death of a sibling by suicide.* The only reason I held the probability of suicide at 25% is the fact that after all these years no body has been found. Otherwise, I'd be at close to 100% on that. (Maybe it's common for the bodies of suicides by drowning to not be found; I guess I'd need more information.) I suppose I shouldn't list anything at 0%, so let's say a more objective breakdown is:
Voluntary disappearance: 70%
Suicide: 25%
Foul play: 5%

*Source: http://www.goodtherapy.org/blog/sibling-loss-increases-risk-of-suicide-0621133

 

[MissJ]

Actually the $4000. had to do with a pension. As an example of why RFG had no savings. He could have been planning to live quite comfortably on his pension as many people do. My points had to do with why he would walk away from his pension and how he would live if he did. Most lawyers don't plan to to do manual labor as they get older Most people don't work all their lives for a pension to give it up and live with uncertainty. I give opinions just like everyone else here. I am permitted that. We do not know what happened to RFG. No way anyone can say for sure except RFG.

 

[MissJ]

Schizophrenia usually happens when the person is in late teens and early twenties. If RFG was suffering from this I doubt he'd have been organized enough to carry out a walkaway. Anything is possible. We all have a right to our opinions. That does NOT make them assumptions.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Just to comment on body recovery, most victims in the Susquehanna are recovered and the river search was one of the most massive in the history of that river.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

So now you are using their accounts as a fact that he was in the SOS???

That is evidence. The only question is how strong is that evidence. We do know that there were multiple reports and the first report was from the person who made the first report to the police. It was before there was any press on the Mini being found. We also know that the "mystery woman" was not reported in the press until the summer of 2005, at the earliest.

We also know that Bob Buehner cited, in his letter of June of 2008 the woman as being seen with RFG on 4/16/05. Now, maybe he mixed up the dates, or maybe he didn't.

 

[DeDee]

In reading the earlier threads, there was one post that mentioned yellow flowers placed in a juice container.

izzyB post 24

i am intrigued by the bundle of yellow flowers in the juice container. why would they just be out there like that???

and of course the suicide of his what would have been older brother 9 years ago??? how did he cope with that? in his mind would a brother's suicide make him more prone to commit suicide himself???

i also think having the car in the corner of the lot is significant. it could be he did not want other vehicles scratching his car doors, or he could have thought putting it over in the corner would make it less noticible.

The poster did not elaborate on where the flowers were located when found. I assume they were not inside the mini Coop. Can anyone add to this detail?

TIA

 

[Trackergd]

One of the issues I am having with Lewisburg is the discrepancy between where the dogs detected RFG's scent in the parking lot and the witnesses saying they saw RFG in the SOS (but no scent).

What dogs detect is dead skin cells sloughed off naturally by our bodies. Bloodhounds and other ground scent dogs vacuum them up with their nose and compare the scent to the control scent provided to them by the handler. Air scent dogs on the other hand detect a scent suspended in the air or carried down wind on air currents. The accuracy of the detection depends on the training level of the dog(s).

The SOS would have been a confusing mess of scents for a ground scent dog. The parking lot would have been a lot less contaminated and RFG's scent a lot more detectable.

The "mystery woman" to me may have been someone RFG knew from the past and just happened to bump into, or someone helping him execute whatever scenario he or others had put into motion. Judging from the witnesses comments, they were not acting in a romantic manner.

I still think Fenton and Grine are the more credible witnesses which puts RFG back in Bellefonte in a different vehicle before going missing.

 

[Sutton]

Are air scent dogs ever used to locate a specific person or are they typically used to locate cadavers and people who need to be rescued?
Only ground scent dogs were used to search for Ray. Is this a correct statement (based on what info is known, of course)? Were dogs taken to the bridge, banks of the river, etc.? There is probably a blog or post on this somewhere, unless someone here knows, I can try to locate it...

 

[DeDee]

Just to comment on body recovery, most victims in the Susquehanna are recovered and the river search was one of the most massive in the history of that river.

I've watched the 2011 Dateline program more than once. There is the possibility that if Ray Gricar was in the Susquehanna River, his body could have gone to the Fiber Dam where it would never resurface again. The churning water flows from the dam into the Chesapeake Bay.

At 16:24 the Lead Investigator explains that possibility.

[video]https://youtu.be/9giaA6wfffo[/video]

In the same Dateline video, at 08:42, there was CCTV that shows Ray Gricar arriving at his office the evening before his disappearance. He is wearing jeans with a dark blue coat, or so it appears to me, as he is entering the building.

The point is, this is when I feel RG went into his office and opened the book of County Code Policy for Elected Officials to the page that explains how to fill a vacancy in the District Attorney's Office found at 05:00 in this video "Nearly Ten Years Later- Disappearance of Ray" by WJACTV Johnstown news.

[video]https://youtu.be/IwLBx4OC-SQ[/video]

A search of RG's office computer indicated he searched for "how to wreck a hard drive".

This particular line of research leaves me with:

Walk Away: 0%
Foul Play: 20%
Suicide: 80%


PS ~ I am slightly annoyed that my links do not convert into videos.

 

[Sutton]

DeDee - Your links convert into videos for me. They show up like a picture with the triangle play button.

 

[wijg]

I've watched the 2011 Dateline program more than once. There is the possibility that if Ray Gricar was in the Susquehanna River, his body could have gone to the Fiber Dam where it would never resurface again. The churning water flows from the dam into the Chesapeake Bay.

Interesting for sure.

this is when I feel RG went into his office and opened the book of County Code Policy for Elected Officials to the page that explains how to fill a vacancy in the District Attorney's Office

I think this is very plausible. I think in addition to the book, he may have but his dictaphone on Steve Sloane's desk.

A search of RG's office computer indicated he searched for "how to wreck a hard drive".

This is correct.

This particular line of research leaves me with:

Walk Away: 0%
Foul Play: 20%
Suicide: 80%

Wait a minute. Are you saying that just because of those three things, you believe it's most likely suicide? 1 of those things is not evidence at all, and the other 2 can be evidence of a walkaway just as much as they could be evidence of suicide.

 

[SuperSmith]

Not only that but they were Rays favorite color and being in a juice box container is interesting since it was reported PF left him a glass of OJ that morning.

 

[Sharyne]

In reading the earlier threads, there was one post that mentioned yellow flowers placed in a juice container.



The poster did not elaborate on where the flowers were located when found. I assume they were not inside the mini Coop. Can anyone add to this detail?

TIA

izzyB post 24

i am intrigued by the bundle of yellow flowers in the juice container. why would they just be out there like that???

and of course the suicide of his what would have been older brother 9 years ago??? how did he cope with that? in his mind would a brother's suicide make him more prone to commit suicide himself???

i also think having the car in the corner of the lot is significant. it could be he did not want other vehicles scratching his car doors, or he could have thought putting it over in the corner would make it less noticible.

Not only that but they were Rays favorite color and being in a juice box container is interesting since it was reported PF left him a glass of OJ that morning.

So, do you know where those flowers were located? I saw DeeDee asked for more detail about them, do you know, SuperSmith ?

nevermind after much searching the article about flowers can no longer be found that on center daily server.

 

[SuperSmith]

If I recall they were noticed by Tony Gricar down by the bridge.

 

[wijg]

If I recall they were noticed by Tony Gricar down by the bridge.

Do we know if they were hand picked flowers? Or did they appear to have been purchased from a supermarket or flower shop?

 

[Trackergd]

I've watched the 2011 Dateline program more than once. There is the possibility that if Ray Gricar was in the Susquehanna River, his body could have gone to the Fiber Dam where it would never resurface again. The churning water flows from the dam into the Chesapeake Bay.

Respectfully bolded and snipped for space only.


Or the power plant dam further down river. Both being low face dams, objects can be pinned under the water for considerable periods of time.

Edited to add: The Safe Harbor Dam, Holtwood Dam and the Conowingo Dam are all hydro electric dams and who knows what happens to a body that goes through them.

 

[DeDee]

Interesting for sure.

I think this is very plausible. I think in addition to the book, he may have but his dictaphone on Steve Sloane's desk.

This is correct.

Wait a minute. Are you saying that just because of those three things, you believe it's most likely suicide? 1 of those things is not evidence at all, and the other 2 can be evidence of a walkaway just as much as they could be evidence of suicide.

Hiya, wijg. Well, I have a confession of sorts. It was most likely due to my laziness that I did not go into the nephew, Tony, noticing, straight away, the deja vu experience when he arrived at the Lewisburg area. "Here we go again", Tony said. He continued, "To say it was an eerie parallel would be the understatement of the century".

In describing the geographical pattern his words were: abandoned parked car, near a bridge, over a river were all similar to a flashback of his own father's, Ray's brother's, suicide.

For me, coupled with my post #351, the story of Ray's brother's suicide is the clincher that seals the facts, of which I am aware, to conclude Ray Gricar's disappearance was due to a suicide. The only reason I gave foul play a 20% is due to the Penn State/Sandusky connection.

I am not aware of any solid evidence that RG walked away from a lady, Patty, whom he adored and their plan to travel and visit his lovely daughter upon his retirement that was a mere seven months away. Given his personality, it does not surprise me that there is no medical evidence of depression. Respectfully, he was too proud of his "stellar reputation" to admit depressive episodes. Pride comes before the fall.


JMVHO and all that jazz

 

[SuperSmith]

Never was reported and the flowers were only reported once