PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, former district attorney, Bellefonte, 15 Apr 2005 - #17

[J. J. in Phila]

I was thinking the same thing.

It is something that you would not expect.

 

[dulldullmike]

First time posting in the RFG thread, but I've read through them all as of today. A little background, I am from the area. I grew up about an hour south of Bellefonte, and still live about the same distance. I live about 20 minutes south-east of Raystown Lake. I love local mysteries, so here I am. Hi! Here is just a list of case oddities, many of which (I know) have already been rung to death on here, but I'll also throw my opinion out there, and poise some questions as well. There is so much information on here, I may forget a few things, or remember things that just aren't true. Please correct me if so.

Questions:

RFG went alone to Lewisburg. Evidently not out of the ordinary, due to his hobby of toy collecting, and having been to Lewisburg SOS before. As far as we know, he never mentioned his plans until that morning when he called PEF. She was the only one who knew of his plans. A few others noticed him (more his car than him) while he made the journey. Did the police ever check her call logs, both cell and office, afterwards?

The computer... Ok, so this drives me nuts. So he wanted software to erase the hard-drive, supposedly got the software to do it, but that wasn't good enough? When you erase a hard-drive with software, does it completely erase the memory/data, or will there still be information that can be derived? So he waited a year to finally throw the laptop in the river and hope that the hard-drive was destroyed when he tossed it as well? Did he ever use the hard-drive erasing software?

The Mystery Woman (MW), did any witnesses actually see them talking, or were they just seen close by one another a few times?

It's pretty established by now that RFG lived pretty frugal, yet his finances didn't add up. The money had to go somewhere. I feel he very well have been hoarding money in some way or fashion, but how? If his accounts were audited, how was he able to move money from his account to elsewhere without the authorities knowing where via bank records? In 2005 the US Marine Corps was paying me via electronic deposit, and I'm sure somewhere/somehow, my transaction records are still available. How did he move his cash?

Could he have been caught up in some dark dealings? I know everyone says he was a good guy, and an upstanding citizen, but people said the same about John Wayne Gacy and Ted Bundy before their deeds got brought into the microscope lights. These rumors about bikers, do they hold any weight?

Opinions:

It's odd to me, that the day he disappears, he takes the laptop with him and it ends up in the drink. If he wasn't working, he had no reason to take it with him. He was seen with it near the SOS (IIRC) so what was he doing? This was pre-WiFi days, so he wasn't working. IMO I think he was running the software again, or trying to make sure he'd wiped everything out correctly. It also drives me nuts to wonder just what was on that laptop. What could he have on there that was detrimental to erase? It's maddening. I tend to believe that his sole purpose for that day was to destroy the laptop/hard-drive.

IMO, he was either abducted/murdered, or he voluntarily walked away. Suicide isn't an option I consider. We've had many drownings in the local creeks and Juniata river, and the bodies are almost 99.9% always recovered. He had his wallet, keys, and was clothed. Something would have been found by now. If they found a hard-drive, they would have found a wallet or ID's or shedded clothing, a bone, etc. Each time there is a flood, material finds its way to the shores. I don't buy the river drowning. Suicide by hanging/OD, I don't buy that either. In and around Lewisburg are small patches of woods around fields, which I can guarantee every deer season is driven to chase out bedded deer. If his corpse was in those woods nearby, it would have been found. Had he tried to make his way to deeper woods, someone would have noticed a stranger walking backroads, or traversing through farmland and remembered on or about that day.

I think the MW was probably just that. She was a woman doing some random shopping at SOS, and never realized she was there that day. If she was, it's odd she never came forward, but that can be explained as well. I think SeekingJana touched on this. Perhaps she was playing hooky from work, or cheating on her husband and supposed to have been somewhere all day, or perhaps she had had legal issues and didn't want to be brought into an investigation. IDK, but I just don't think they'd have only been seen in the SOS if their meeting up was the case.

MOO, and I know JJ can fill me in with his insight, but I honestly feel that RFG had something serious going on for over a year. From the time he began searching about destroying his laptop, there was something in play. People remarked on him being aloof, looking depressed, spacing out, in the days leading up to his disappearance. Generally, someone who has accepted the suicide route, is happy, or upbeat, or at the least relieved for the fact that they've found closure or an answer to their woes. RFG didn't seem like he was any of that. He behavior reminds me of someone getting ready to do something they don't want to do, or something that they're very worried will affect them in some way, shape, or form. It sounds like he had some very heavy weight on his shoulders. That's why I lean towards the abduction and murder scenario. However, as stated by someone before, if someone said "RFG, you come to Lewisburg, you bring your laptop and destroy it, and let us witness it, you're free to go" he could have always backed it up. So to reiterate, this case is maddening with all of the possibilities.

Sorry to write such a novel, but I'd love to hear others' perspectives.

 

[Lorenathered]

I can give you my opinion as an IT person on the laptop/hard drive. It depends on what software he would use to "erase" the hard drive. Most software is pretty effective at making data unrecoverable. It doesn't really erase, it overwrites the data with all 1's or something similar. By default most make 3 different overwrite passes. In better software you can bump up the amount of times it will overwrite the hard drive. If he used something like this, removing it and throwing it into the river is overkill. So there was something that needed destroyed very badly, or he didn't get the software and this was his alternative.

 

[dulldullmike]

In better software you can bump up the amount of times it will overwrite the hard drive. If he used something like this, removing it and throwing it into the river is overkill.

I was wondering. The river seemed a bit overkill if he used it as well. IIRC, he did get the software, I'm just not sure if he used it.

 

[Lorenathered]

Honestly, the river toss is less likely to destroy the hard drive than software would be. Hard drives from that time were made with platters inside - like little record players except that the records could be rewritten on the spot. Because even the tiniest speck of dust could cause a read/write failure they are sealed air tight. If you toss a drive into the water and it is found soon enough it is still likely to be recoverable. I am not sure how tech savvy Ray was though.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I'm snipping for brevity.

RFG went alone to Lewisburg. Evidently not out of the ordinary, due to his hobby of toy collecting, and having been to Lewisburg SOS before. As far as we know, he never mentioned his plans until that morning when he called PEF. She was the only one who knew of his plans. A few others noticed him (more his car than him) while he made the journey. Did the police ever check her call logs, both cell and office, afterwards?

I do not know the answer to the first question (though see below). I will note that RFG never said, **I'm going to Lewisburg,** according to PEF. He said he was on Route 192 heading towards Lewisburg, not that it was his destination.

Calls from the office are a problem. At that time, all calls to the DA's Office went through a central switchboard. It would only show a call coming from the Courthouse or to the Courthouse. That said, I'd want to look at the call records.

The computer... Ok, so this drives me nuts. So he wanted software to erase the hard-drive, supposedly got the software to do it, but that wasn't good enough? When you erase a hard-drive with software, does it completely erase the memory/data, or will there still be information that can be derived? So he waited a year to finally throw the laptop in the river and hope that the hard-drive was destroyed when he tossed it as well? Did he ever use the hard-drive erasing software?

I'm told that, in 2005, the only "sure way" was to eliminate data was to destroy the drive. For all practical purposes, erasure software would be good enough. It might not be good enough for solid forensic work, but not something that could be casually recovered.

(I'm happy someone else weighed in on this. My understanding was that this an "overwrite" type of thing.)

Since RFG had this software in early 2004, and was still using the laptop as his home computer, he did not use the software immediately. He was planning to retire by that point and had announced his intention.

The Mystery Woman (MW), did any witnesses actually see them talking, or were they just seen close by one another a few times?

They had spoken, according to press reports. However, I have not heard a suggestion that they were deeply involved in conversation. She could have asked him the time, directions, or his opinion on some item. This could be nothing more than random.

It's pretty established by now that RFG lived pretty frugal, yet his finances didn't add up. The money had to go somewhere. I feel he very well have been hoarding money in some way or fashion, but how? If his accounts were audited, how was he able to move money from his account to elsewhere without the authorities knowing where via bank records? In 2005 the US Marine Corps was paying me via electronic deposit, and I'm sure somewhere/somehow, my transaction records are still available. How did he move his cash?

It depends when. No body looked at his spending or assets prior to his divorce in 2001. He could have moved money into foreign accounts before that. He could have bought portable assets, like gold, as well.

Could he have been caught up in some dark dealings?

Sure, he could. Do not know of anything specific or general that would explain the evidence.

It's odd to me, that the day he disappears, he takes the laptop with him and it ends up in the drink. If he wasn't working, he had no reason to take it with him. He was seen with it near the SOS (IIRC) so what was he doing? This was pre-WiFi days, so he wasn't working. IMO I think he was running the software again, or trying to make sure he'd wiped everything out correctly. It also drives me nuts to wonder just what was on that laptop. What could he have on there that was detrimental to erase? It's maddening. I tend to believe that his sole purpose for that day was to destroy the laptop/hard-drive.

Maybe.

RFG could have been thinking, ***I'm going to Lewisburg for [some other reason we don't know about]. I want to get rid of my laptop and this will be the ideal time to do it. When I get back to the office on Monday, I'll tell them that was using it, tripped, and it flew into the river. If they find it in a few months, the drive won't be readable. I'll run the erasure software before I toss it, just to make sure.***

I would not rule out this scenario. The destruction of the laptop may not be related to RFG's disappearance.

MOO, and I know JJ can fill me in with his insight, but I honestly feel that RFG had something serious going on for over a year. From the time he began searching about destroying his laptop, there was something in play. People remarked on him being aloof, looking depressed, spacing out, in the days leading up to his disappearance. Generally, someone who has accepted the suicide route, is happy, or upbeat, or at the least relieved for the fact that they've found closure or an answer to their woes. RFG didn't seem like he was any of that. He behavior reminds me of someone getting ready to do something they don't want to do, or something that they're very worried will affect them in some way, shape, or form. It sounds like he had some very heavy weight on his shoulders. That's why I lean towards the abduction and murder scenario. However, as stated by someone before, if someone said "RFG, you come to Lewisburg, you bring your laptop and destroy it, and let us witness it, you're free to go" he could have always backed it up. So to reiterate, this case is maddening with all of the possibilities.

Good observations.

 

[SeekingJana]

First time posting in the RFG thread, but I've read through them all as of today.
.

Snipped almost all the excellent text because a Mod got onto me about this recently.

Mike, it's a pleasure to read your thoughts and questions! So happy to have another almost local with us, too. Welcome to WS!

I have a theory that Ray was NOT that emotionally attached to Patty and never had been. That it was easy, comfy, and not all that entangled.
ONE of the key reasons I think Patty was " comfortable" for Ray is that she looked or looks ( I don't know how they have aged) enough like Ray's first wife, Barbara Gray, to be her sister.
Have you seen the photo of the two of them together? If not, J. has it in this thread, not too far back, I think.

IMO, it is stunning to see the physical resemblance, although Barbara was likely 15 years older than Patty when the photo was taken.
Is it meaningful? Likely, in that to me, they are unusual looking women for their ages. A lack of curves, short hair, minimal to no makeup, it points to a " safe girlfriend who won't be cheating" and " Someone who will come home and cook and clean after work" to me. Things pampered pretty women NEVER have to do if they don't want to.

I wouldn't say this sort of thing, because it does sound like a stereotypical shallow statement, BUT as I just bought my ( aerospace engineer) DH a Shark steam mop for his birthday tomorrow, I know from personal experience. LOL.
The strange thing is that Ray was extremely attracted to very pretty ladies with makeup, long hair, etc., and as J. told us years ago, Ray met a nurse for the first time at her job and proposed marriage to her on the spot.
( I don't know the timeline for this but expect it was after Barbara, the first wife, but before Emma, the second wife).

My point is that I believe, if MW was connected to Ray as a friend or more, then she likely shared more qualities with pretty Mystery Nurse than either Patty or lookalike Barbara.

If you think Ray left alive, how do you think he got out of Lewisburg?
This is the question that hangs J. and I up. I do think one day we'll hit on the right answer and have a huge " Aha" moment.

Again, thanks for joining us with fresh eyes. I believe all who post on this case truly respect Mr. Gricar and while we didn't know him, we like him in absentia.

I live in Texas, and other posters live somewhere else on the planet, so please feel free to share things you see or think of that might help us determine answers to things like where Ray might have spent the night of the 15th, because that's also a big question along with getting out of Lewisburg undetected.

 

[dulldullmike]

Have you seen the photo of the two of them together?

Yes, and I definitely agree that their similarities are uncanny.

The strange thing is that Ray was extremely attracted to very pretty ladies with makeup, long hair, etc.,

Like you also said, maybe it was an insecurity of Ray's. Perhaps he thought he wouldn't have to worry about them cheating, or perhaps there was another reason, and I'll get to that shortly.

If you think Ray left alive, how do you think he got out of Lewisburg?

IMHO, if he walked away from it all, he could have simply slipped into the seat of a car driven by someone else, and left. If he did walk away, he would have almost certainly needed help from someone. Being by yourself, and trying to disappear seems quite risky of being noticed. In these smaller towns with shopping plazas, where people are constantly coming and going, it's hard to keep track of anyone. He wasn't widely known in that area, so to anyone else, he was just another shopper. I couldn't tell you the description of anybody I may have seen on a day out shopping, because we all just blend in. Unless there was some sort of interaction between us, and even then, it's hard to give a valid description of them.

Ray was an average looking guy, and I don't think he'd have stuck out in a crowd. WHAT I THINK, is that people remembered the car and not the man himself. In 2005 those Mini's weren't as prevalent. His was flashy. I think a lot of the supposed witnesses saw the car, and any male that fit within RFG's physical characteristics around the car and area could have been assumed to be RFG. The mind is a funny thing. And memory isn't a video camera, it's flashes of what you've perceived in your lifetime. Snips of this, bits of that.

In J.'s theory, he said about Ray buying a beater car to get out, but that would have taken some risks in one way, shape, or form of being noticed or leaving a trail, and I just don't think that in his meticulous planning that he would have taken that risk. But is it possible? Definitely. In a case this odd, there are infinite possibilities.

please feel free to share things you see or think of that might help us determine answers to things like where Ray might have spent the night of the 15th

That's a very good question, and that leads back to the "having help" reference. It's probably safe to say that he didn't sleep in the car, so where could he have slept? I don't know. I doubt he roughed it by sleeping under the bridge or bought a hotel room, so that would suggest a house. But who? I think the answer lies somewhere in that bucolic little town of Lewisburg. Someone there holds the key.

The better question I'd like to ask, is why did he come back to the SOS on the 16th? It's safe to say that the laptop/hard-drive was probably lying in the Susquehanna by then, so why come back? Why risk another day (knowing he was probably being looked for at this point) of being out in the open? This is why it's so odd. So theoretically, he went to Lewisburg on the 15th, destroyed his computer, stayed somewhere, came back the 16th, milled around the SOS area, and then vanished. If he'd had help, and had stayed somewhere (a house) on the night of the 15th (with help), and with his laptop destroyed, why come back? What reason would he have to comeback, if he had already disposed of the laptop and had help leaving? THIS IS FRYING MY BRAIN!!!!!

Welcome to WS!

Thank you so much!

 

[dulldullmike]

It depends when. No body looked at his spending or assets prior to his divorce in 2001. He could have moved money into foreign accounts before that. He could have bought portable assets, like gold, as well.

Thanks for replying! What about post 2001? With the money he was making as DA for five years, was his account showing oddities? Someone, possibly you said he'd only withdrew like 16K in that time. So what about the rest? Did it match up to his income, savings, electronic payments, etc.?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I'll probably respond with greater detail tomorrow, as I been busy doing things where I actually have expertise.

I did wan to point out, regarding the money that it $16 k over a period of several years, not just going to bank and withdrawing $16,000. One think that we don't know about is how much used his credit cards. His bank account(s) had between $80 K and just over $100 k. He had been grossing over $100 k in the five years prior his disappearance from his DA's salary.

Here is the photo from the 4/18/05 press conference. PEF is to LAG's right; BG is to her left. I actually thought that it was one of PEF's relatives for the longest time.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipping for brevity only.

IMHO, if he walked away from it all, he could have simply slipped into the seat of a car driven by someone else, and left. If he did walk away, he would have almost certainly needed help from someone. Being by yourself, and trying to disappear seems quite risky of being noticed. In these smaller towns with shopping plazas, where people are constantly coming and going, it's hard to keep track of anyone. He wasn't widely known in that area, so to anyone else, he was just another shopper. I couldn't tell you the description of anybody I may have seen on a day out shopping, because we all just blend in. Unless there was some sort of interaction between us, and even then, it's hard to give a valid description of them.

That is a possibility. It is one of the several possibilities. The question would have been who would have done that?

In J.'s theory, he said about Ray buying a beater car to get out, but that would have taken some risks in one way, shape, or form of being noticed or leaving a trail, and I just don't think that in his meticulous planning that he would have taken that risk. But is it possible? Definitely. In a case this odd, there are infinite possibilities.

Let me give you the reason why I think buying a car is possible. It is a bit of an involved story.

In late March of 2005, my old car, with more than 100 k on it, broke down. I needed a newer car. I bought a 1999 Dodge Avenger (which broke down in 2019). I did this in the 1st week of April, 2005. I transferred everything to the new car at the dealership and got all the paperwork done, paid the sales tax, and insurance transferred; I paid by cashier's check, though it was low enough for a cash transaction (< $10 k). I just had to wait for new sticker, which generally comes in 30 days. The temporary sticker lasts for 90 days, so this should not be a problem.

June roles around and I don't have a sticker. I call up the PennDOT and asked about it. They told me that in early 2005, they had a fire (I think in February or March). There was a backlog. They suggested going to Triple A. It did and got my sticker. If someone had purchased a car in PA in early April 2005, it would not have shown up in PennDOT's system for several months. There was no way that anyone in LE could immediately check. It is likely that anyone dealing with enforcement, like a DA, would know that.

It would have possible for RFG or a helper to have purchased a used car, for cash and that RFG could have used that to drive out of Lewisburg. Further, the car could have been sold before the registration was in the PennDOT system. The only potential problem would be that if a helper purchased it, he she would have to be present to sell it.

Now, look at Memorial Day weekend 2005. There is a report of RFG being seen with a woman (about 70) eating at a restaurant in Southfield, MI. Was that the helper getting the car back from RFG? Maybe. I did get the location of the restaurant. There are a number of repair shops that may buy used cars as well (for resale), within 2000 feet of that location. It is, at least plausible, but plausible isn't proof. Of course, I was in LE, I might just start looking.

I am referring to the clip below. Maybe the answer may not be in Lewisburg.

That's a very good question, and that leads back to the "having help" reference. It's probably safe to say that he didn't sleep in the car, so where could he have slept? I don't know. I doubt he roughed it by sleeping under the bridge or bought a hotel room, so that would suggest a house. But who? I think the answer lies somewhere in that bucolic little town of Lewisburg. Someone there holds the key.

The better question I'd like to ask, is why did he come back to the SOS on the 16th? It's safe to say that the laptop/hard-drive was probably lying in the Susquehanna by then, so why come back? Why risk another day (knowing he was probably being looked for at this point) of being out in the open? This is why it's so odd. So theoretically, he went to Lewisburg on the 15th, destroyed his computer, stayed somewhere, came back the 16th, milled around the SOS area, and then vanished. If he'd had help, and had stayed somewhere (a house) on the night of the 15th (with help), and with his laptop destroyed, why come back? What reason would he have to comeback, if he had already disposed of the laptop and had help leaving? THIS IS FRYING MY BRAIN!!!!!

There are several possibilities:

1. The person that the witnesses saw on 4/16/05 was not RFG. I do not know of any witness that saw him with the Mini on 4/16. Just because I don't know something does not it didn't happen, but so far, I have not heard this.

2. RFG did stay in Lewisburg, possibly with a woman. The woman could have gotten a motel room, and RFG could have gotten it after that. It could have been a private residence. The only plausible reason I could come up with would be a sexual encounter. That could explain a lot of the evidence.

3. RFG was suicidal and just wondered around all night and maybe dosed off in the Mini Cooper. That would not explain why the dogs never traced him to a place where he relieved himself. It is one of the many problems with suicide.

4. RFG did not stay in Lewisburg. The helper picked RFG up in the "beater car" (good term), and with him back to Centre County. That is where RFG spent the night. He drove back to Lewisburg, in the beater car, to make it appear that he spend the night of 4/15-16/05 in Lewisburg. LE is trying to find where RFG spent the night, and they are, logically, looking at the location where he was seen on the evening of 4/15 and the morning of 4/16, where the Mini Cooper is located.

We know that RFG generated a map at his office to Lewisburg from Centre County sometime before 4/15/05. He knew how to get to Lewisburg and generally how long it would take him, so RFG did not need it. If he was giving directions to someone in Centre County, he could say, "Go through Pleasant Gap into Centre Hall. Turn left at the light. Keep going until you reach Lewisburg." Nobody from Centre County needs a map for that. You would need a map to determine how long it would take driving at slower speeds. RFG could add to the directions, "Pick me at 8:30 PM. Leave at 7:30 PM."

Welcome to this thread, belatedly. I didn't know it was your first post here.

 

[SeekingJana]

Yes, and I definitely agree that their similarities are uncanny.



Like you also said, maybe it was an insecurity of Ray's. Perhaps he thought he wouldn't have to worry about them cheating, or perhaps there was another reason, and I'll get to that shortly.



IMHO, if he walked away from it all, he could have simply slipped into the seat of a car driven by someone else, and left. If he did walk away, he would have almost certainly needed help from someone. Being by yourself, and trying to disappear seems quite risky of being noticed. In these smaller towns with shopping plazas, where people are constantly coming and going, it's hard to keep track of anyone. He wasn't widely known in that area, so to anyone else, he was just another shopper. I couldn't tell you the description of anybody I may have seen on a day out shopping, because we all just blend in. Unless there was some sort of interaction between us, and even then, it's hard to give a valid description of them.

Ray was an average looking guy, and I don't think he'd have stuck out in a crowd. WHAT I THINK, is that people remembered the car and not the man himself. In 2005 those Mini's weren't as prevalent. His was flashy. I think a lot of the supposed witnesses saw the car, and any male that fit within RFG's physical characteristics around the car and area could have been assumed to be RFG. The mind is a funny thing. And memory isn't a video camera, it's flashes of what you've perceived in your lifetime. Snips of this, bits of that.

In J.'s theory, he said about Ray buying a beater car to get out, but that would have taken some risks in one way, shape, or form of being noticed or leaving a trail, and I just don't think that in his meticulous planning that he would have taken that risk. But is it possible? Definitely. In a case this odd, there are infinite possibilities.



That's a very good question, and that leads back to the "having help" reference. It's probably safe to say that he didn't sleep in the car, so where could he have slept? I don't know. I doubt he roughed it by sleeping under the bridge or bought a hotel room, so that would suggest a house. But who? I think the answer lies somewhere in that bucolic little town of Lewisburg. Someone there holds the key.

The better question I'd like to ask, is why did he come back to the SOS on the 16th? It's safe to say that the laptop/hard-drive was probably lying in the Susquehanna by then, so why come back? Why risk another day (knowing he was probably being looked for at this point) of being out in the open? This is why it's so odd. So theoretically, he went to Lewisburg on the 15th, destroyed his computer, stayed somewhere, came back the 16th, milled around the SOS area, and then vanished. If he'd had help, and had stayed somewhere (a house) on the night of the 15th (with help), and with his laptop destroyed, why come back? What reason would he have to comeback, if he had already disposed of the laptop and had help leaving? THIS IS FRYING MY BRAIN!!!!!




Thank you so much!

You're so welcome, and thank you, also. Please forgive the lateness of my response. I'm dealing with some new health problems, and an old one- a back injury. Gettin' older every year. .

One thing we haven't ever talked about is a change of clothing. I guess, if he was on his way out of town, he or his driver would stop somewhere and get a generic Henley button neck pullover, nondescript in PA, I'd think. Likely wash what he had somewhere early in the AM at a laundromat and pick up jeans or have the lady pick up these things.

You talk about the 16th. The sighting of the 16th is not verified by LE, but it's definitely possible and may fit into the category of probable.
The " why" could be:

1) He was waiting on his ride, however he was leaving town.

2) He wanted to be in the shadows and watch to see if the laptop/ HD had been found, was floating or maybe on a boat.. or where he threw the pieces. I tend to think he was extremely meticulous when left to his own devices, so would have done what pleased him about the items deposited in the Sus. River.

3) Maybe he had a private buyer for the large collection of antique toys he is said to have amassed. Not a vendor at the SoS but possibly someone he met there, and made a " If you like what I have when you see all of the collection, I'll let it go for $1200- cash only" kind of thing. That money would be his traveling money for food, lodging, a plane ticket maybe ( I think he left the US if he could have a clear pathway to do so, actually).

4) Maybe he just needed a little time to say " farewell" to his red sports car and the antique shop he liked. People can be sentimental about things as well as people.

5) Even though we don't know, maybe he met someone who was his courier for the things we each consider to be important to keep in our " world". It could be a collection of things a key to a bank safety deposit box, log in passwords to his emails, Lara's childhood photos and mementos, things of that nature, and he wanted to get them to Barbara. Maybe he had a close enough friend to give a box of things with instructions to in order to hold onto for a few months. I don't think he would have made direct contact with Barbara regarding his plans either shortly before or at that time because he should have anticipated polygraphs and questioning for Barbara, Patty and Lara.
I picked Barbara as I think their bond was stronger because of their shared daughter, and because she is one smart lady. I expect, as in my life, the marriage might not be forever, but the love never truly ends, just turns to friendship and trust.

6) Ray didn't know who was looking for him or how early after he'd left Bellefonte in the rear view mirror. He didn't know if his way out of Lewisburg was going to be viable or if there would be a ( literal) roadblock. He likely learned a lot from his overnight trip to the baseball game years earlier, and realized he was not " John Doe" even though he was out of his immediate jurisdiction and likely recognition area. Name recognition was probably much greater than physical recognition, and I agree with you that to most people, he looks nicely groomed and kind, but not unusual or freaky weird.


7) Redundancy. I have a principle in my life that says " Build in a Plan B if Plan A is important". I believe Ray was cautious enough with all of his own decisions for himself to have a backup plan in waiting. I don't think he could walk on water, and I do think timing was EVERYTHING, but things had to go according to plan, IMO, to fit in with the rest of what I believe is true about his personality. He would neither have sped nor ambled to his destination. This is more or less intuition, but it's also observation of how LE patrol personnel work. They don't pull over the middle of the speed zone drivers, they pull over the speeders and the people driving exceptionally slowly and carefully. What J. said about the car purchase and the helper. I don't think he was on the road ANYWHERE on the night of the 15th though. He and I do apparently disagree on this. I'd have slept in my trunk ( the Mini Cooper has a BMW sized trunk) before I'd have gone back towards Centre County. Not that I've ever considered sleeping in a car trunk before, but I guess it could be done in the absence of CO, and the car was found out in the open air, not a busy parking garage ( in Lewisburg, ).
Centre County would have been " the red zone" with an angry girlfriend there, and how would he have explained the absence of the car and the presence of someone Patty didn't know ( most likely)?

All that to say, Ray would want to appear to be " every man" in an " every man" car or truck. Obeying traffic laws but not to some level of paranoia at a yellow light, for example. We know he hasn't been heard from, at least it's not been reported publicly that he's been found, so I think he got out of town responsibly and ended up at his destination point likely without incident. There were sightings, but as no one stopped Ray Gricar in the IHOP or Appleby's, he likely wasn't actually sighted.
That's how I see it, anyway. I do not believe he committed suicide, as in 0% chance, and I am very skeptical that he was murdered and no remains have ever been found. I give murder about a 10% chance, so leaving voluntarily is 90% of my theory.

I know I'd leave my life if I could and never look back. Maybe that's why my percentage is so high- projection of my own feelings and opinions. I own it.

 

[SeekingJana]

J., regarding the car registration sticker for your replacement car and the fire in 2005.
That's super freaky. I love stories about red tape getting tangled around the ones using it.

I had a friend who committed a non- serious offense which still possibly, if remotely possibly, have followed him. It happened before computer records.
My friend decided to get a copy of the final disposition of the case and the court person ( I don't know what his title was) told him that he owned court costs plus fines for it being a decade or so late.

My friend was in tears because if there was ANYONE who was ashamed, sorrowful, remorseful and embarrassed about a minor thing, it was this perfectionist. He said that he had paid them, in cash to the court clerk. That it was almost $500 and he was worried that he might not have enough cash with him to pay the bill. He remarked that he hadn't expected it to be so high at that point in time.

The court guy said " OH, that's when we had a long- term court secretary start stealing money from us to save for her upcoming retirement. Your fee should have been around $6o." So she stole his money, and jacked it up as well. In the part of the Court House that dealt with all the files related to judges' decisions, any trials, police in and out all the time, just the most secure place you'd think someone would work and the place she'd be most likely to get caught. But nope, she didn't. We've laughed about it many times since, and I hope one day he adds this little anecdote to his very humorous style, but he's very sensitive.

They had 2 people taking and recording fees received. One was honest and put the money where it was supposed to go ( a locked cash register system?) , the other was intermittently stealing. Apparently, the books balanced because when the entire court record was shredded, and no receipt was printed out, it was a $0 transaction that never happened on paper. Likewise, no permanent record of the misdemeanor existed either.

My friend didn't know his minor infraction wasn't being broadcast in the 21st century to prospective employers, even.

Things do happen that can seem downright unbelievable or freaky. You might have needed your car's records and they'd burned up.

He might have needed his court paperwork, and it didn't exist. I think, all things considered, he got the better deal with just one phone call and a huge fine already paid a decade after his error in judgment.

 

[Trackergd]

Hmmm. Now the cigarette ash and smell in the Mini make sense. RG meets a helper who has a car (a pickup truck would have been awesome) they are loaning him and a change of cloths (non descript) to leave the area, possibly even a hotel room in their name for the night. The helper (a smoker) drives the Mini back to the SOS parking lot and leaves it. Later the helper meets RG in Southfield Mass (or wherever) and drives the loaner vehicle back while RG heads off on the next leg of his journey. What an awesome scenario. Really works if RG had been stashing a pile of getaway cash somewhere or with the helper. The helper would have to be a trusted friend who would never tell anyone. I'm not really hung up on documents like a social security card, birth certificate, etc. There are black market document specialists that create new identities.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Hmmm. Now the cigarette ash and smell in the Mini make sense. RG meets a helper who has a car (a pickup truck would have been awesome) they are loaning him and a change of cloths (non descript) to leave the area, possibly even a hotel room in their name for the night. The helper (a smoker) drives the Mini back to the SOS parking lot and leaves it. Later the helper meets RG in Southfield Mass (or wherever) and drives the loaner vehicle back while RG heads off on the next leg of his journey. What an awesome scenario. Really works if RG had been stashing a pile of getaway cash somewhere or with the helper. The helper would have to be a trusted friend who would never tell anyone. I'm not really hung up on documents like a social security card, birth certificate, etc. There are black market document specialists that create new identities.

As always, good to see you post.

Southfield Michigan, less than half an hour from the Canadian border. Also a less than a ten minute to Macedonian consulate, where he could get visa to the former Yugoslavian republic.

RFG was eligible for Slovenian citizenship (another former Yugoslavian republic), so he might not have needed fake papers. In 2005, he wouldn't even need a passport to enter Canada; a driver's license from the US would be enough. He could have crossed the border and it would have been perfectly legal.

It would have been unlikely for the Helper to be in the Mini. He/she could have driven the beater car to Lewisburg, picked up RFG, and driven him back to Centre County. He spends the night in Centre County and drives back to Lewisburg in the beater car. He parks it and spends a few hours in Lewisburg, making sure he's seen. Where is LE going to look for him? The last place he is seen.

Now, before all say "Case closed; everyone go home," consider these things:

1. Witnesses are not physical evidence. The main witness in Southfield is a retire police officer that was also a sketch artist, so he is a good witness. Good does mean infallible; he could be wrong. While his daughter also saw RFG and other people said that RFG looked familiar, that does not prove it was RFG.

2. We don't have any evidence of a beater car being acquired in Centre or Union Counties by a helper. There would be a record of this acquisition (buying or renting) by the Helper. While it would not have been available to LE in the months following 4/15/05, it should be available today.

3. If the "Southfield scenario" is correct, there could be evidence of the Helper going to Southfield and/or disposing of the beater car. That evidence would, of course, not have been available to LE until after the disposal of the beater car and after the trip to Southfield.

If this happened, there will be evidence.

 

[Ironhorse 332]

I live in Centre County and pass through Lewisburg regularly. I was just there yesterday.

I never believed that he took a dive off the bridge or went into the river to commit suicide. The water looks to calm and slow moving in that area for me to buy into that theory.

All the evidence leads me to believe he wanted to disappear.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I live in Centre County and pass through Lewisburg regularly. I was just there yesterday.

I never believed that he took a dive off the bridge or went into the river to commit suicide. The water looks to calm and slow moving in that area for me to buy into that theory.

All the evidence leads me to believe he wanted to disappear.

Welcome.

It is possible, though hugely unlikely, that RFG killed himself by jumping in, or even walking into, the Susquehanna. He may simply had tried not to swim. It is gigantically unlikely that the fall would have killed him, but on 4/15/05, the Susquehanna was high, swiftly moving, and cold. He could hit the water, injuring himself in the fall, and suffered hypothermia. A jump or accidental fall into the could kill on 4/15/05.

All that said, since 4/15/05, while there were several drownings in that branch of the Susquehanna. In all the cases, the remains were recovered. I have to conclude that it is almost impossible for RFG to have killed himself by jumping into the Susquehanna on the weekend of 4/15/05. That does not preclude him killing himself some other place.

 

[SeekingJana]

Welcome.

It is possible, though hugely unlikely, that RFG killed himself by jumping in, or even walking into, the Susquehanna.

The hugely unlikely factor, for me, is much greater than all the elephants left walking the earth, and all the whales swimming in our seas. ( I love both gigantic smart creatures).

There is ONE thing we never talk about much and I do see that as the proverbial elephant in the case: What about Raystown Lake?
Did Ray go there the day before, or was it another red Mini Cooper?
What purpose did he have in mind? Was maybe the computer HD supposed to go in one body of water and the case in another?
Was it something else, but not related to drowning?

I refuse to consider him going from place to place to try to drown himself, so that's off the table for me in this case.
IF he went there, why? If he didn't, why is there either a rumor or a statement that he was there on the 14th? Is Raystown Lake closer to Bellefonte?

 

[Trackergd]

I'm of the opinion that the Raytstown Lake was either a dry run to see if the spot was a good one to toss the computer, or he was going to toss it and ran into someone who knew him and that ruined his plans. The next large body of water that dovetailed with his plans was Lewisburg and he went to Plan B.

 

[Trackergd]

RG was somewhat deceptive regarding his trip to Lewisburg, yet he spent time in the park fiddling with the laptop. Having put boots on the ground in the park during exactly the same conditions, I am onboard with the witnesses comments. I am still working out the mechanics of how he got the computer and drive into the river where they were eventually found. I don't think the getaway vehicle was rented, it think it was loaned to him by a trusted friend whom he met with the mini elsewhere and the helper drove the Mini back to the SOS parking lot and was smoking while doing so. No one would be paying attention to a non-descript sedan or pickup truck heading out of the area and to Southfield. The helper could have easily taken mass transit or a co-driver to go recover the vehicle without much fuss. Toll tickets don't record your name and what camera footage that may have existed is long gone, assuming we knew who the helper was. This is a very doable scenario. I think there is a small chance that RG is still in the US near someone who honestly did not know what happened to him at the time he went missing. Going back to the computer, there is a short list of what could have been on it that RG went to such extremes to destroy.

• Financial information - escape money in cash.
• Escape planning - maps, contacts, etc.
• Case related - loose ends
• Evidence of illicit or taboo activity

I am at less than 1/2% this was suicide. Walkaway is at 80% and homicide is at 19 1/2%.

Guess we will never know why until we find him and ask.