Once rules of war are put aside, anything is possible
There's a well-known story about a young Vladimir Putin, published shortly after he first became President of Russia.
In a selection of essays about Mr Putin’s life and rise to power, he recounted a story of his youth growing up in what was then Leningrad, and is now St Petersburg.
The new president told of the large number of rats living in the corridors and stairwell of his apartment building and how he and his friends made a game of chasing them.
One day the young Putin pursued a particularly large rodent into a corner.
Initially thinking he had the upper hand, Putin was shocked and surprised when the rat, cornered and with no way out, flung itself at him.
The power balance had changed instantly and unexpectedly, and perhaps had taught the young Putin a lesson about the risks that become worthwhile when you have no other option.
It’s a tale which has been retold a lot in recent times, for obvious reasons. As this war progresses in a way he had not anticipated, and Putin feels he is the one who is cornered, what might he do?
As the West tries to figure out President Putin’s next move, the avenues open to him seem to be diminishing.
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Even in a country which has seen intense repression on a free press, recent developments are shocking, leading some analysts to categorise Russia as now having officially moved from an authoritarian state to a dictatorial state.
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There is also reason to believe that some of the criticism and ridicule Mr Putin has faced in the West is having an effect.
This weekend he appeared at an event with the female staff of Aeroflot to mark International Women’s Day. Gone was the extreme social distancing which was seen the week before as he met his own generals.
Despite online speculation about whether there might have been a doctoring of the pictures of Mr Putin’s presence at the Aeroflot event, one thing is clear.
He was obviously stung by the discussion in the West about whether he had become paranoid and aloof during the pandemic, typified by a ridiculously long table to meet world leaders and his own military leaders.
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This week Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, told the BBC’s World At One radio programme that the invasion was a major tragedy and that he found it "very difficult to consider any benefits that Russia can possibly get out of this operation...and...I think that the side effects are likely to be much more serious than any possible gains".
Mr Kortunov is not a Putin critic. He has worked with the president and knows his thinking.
Mr Kortunov says Mr Putin "will need something to declare victory" and believes some kind of third party mediation might find a resolution, suggesting former German Chancellor Angela Merkel as an individual who has dealt with Mr Putin before.
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And saving face is crucial. The one certainty for Vladimir Putin is that defeat in Ukraine would mean the end for his leadership.
For someone who has, for two decades now, cultivated ways to stay in power, that is not an option he will contemplate.
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If Mr Putin began this war to restore the greatness of the former Soviet Union, the last fortnight has done the opposite, exposing instead the weaknesses of his armed forces to international surprise and ridicule.
But it is at this very point that Mr Putin’s next move might become the most drastic, and those lessons learned in the stairwells of his Leningrad apartment block may return.
The use of chemical weapons on the residents of Aleppo is a bleak reminder that once the rules of war have been put aside, anything is possible.
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