MAR 26, 2022
Ukraine reaches breaking point in Russia’s war (kyivindependent.com)
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The “operational pause,” as dubbed by the Ukrainian defense community, unfolded throughout the country after March 8-11.
It was believed that Russia took this short breathing spell to possibly regroup its forces and improve its logistics which had caused massive troubles in terms of food and fuel supplies.
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Numerous and fierce attempts to advance have resulted in little to no progress in almost each of the principal axes. West or east of Kyiv, there have been almost no territorial gains for nearly two weeks, be it the Irpin-Hostomel-Bucha triangle or the vast areas east of Brovary.
In Mykolaiv, numerous frontal attacks from occupied Kherson also resulted in nothing but severe Russian casualties. By March 22-23, Russians effectively halted their attempts to advance toward the city. Attempts to bypass Mykolaiv and toward the city of Voznesensk or threaten Kryvyi Rih have also not proven successful.
As a result, in the south, Russia is not even close to threatening Odesa by land, despite enjoying full supremacy at sea. It is not even attempting to attack Odesa by way of the beach with an amphibious landing force, since it would be a guaranteed failure given the circumstances.
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The northern Russian group in this theater is not even close to being ready to advance further south. It has been stuck in extremely hard fighting in the city of Izium in Kharkiv Oblast for weeks and still faces numerous obstacles in its way.
In Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, there also have been no major territorial gains since mid-March.
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Poor results amid severe casualties stir resentment among many Russian observers, even such as Igor Girkin, the infamous warlord of the early days of the Donbas campaign in 2014. In his numerous interviews with pro-Kremlin media outlets, the former high-ranking terrorist says at such a pace the Donbas militants, much of the Russian force in the region, will shortly run out of manpower for any further offensive operations.
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The city’s [Maripoul] garrison, despite the full blockade and relentless Russian bombardment, has continued waging block-by-block warfare for over 20 days, making Russian advances extremely slow, hard, and costly.
Even if Russia, having paid a high price, finally seizes the city in the coming weeks, it will effectively end up conquering nothing but barely habitable heaps of ruins, similar to Volnovakha, which was also razed to the ground.
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According to the Kyiv-based Center for Defense Initiatives, between one-third and a half of Russia’s over 120 battalion tactical groups deployed against Ukraine could be rendered ineffective in combat.
Fierce and highly-organized Ukrainian resistance, in addition to poor Russian logistics, communications, morale, and inadequate leadership, have precipitated such a casualty rate of nearly 1,000 service members a day, which Russia has not seen since World War II.
Very telling is the fact that a cohort of Russian senior officers, even generals, have been killed in combat or reportedly assassinated by Ukrainian special operations forces. Some of the hits have been confirmed on the Russian side.
In many instances, high-ranking Russian officers were killed solving organizational issues on the ground or while trying to prove themselves to superiors in combat operations. And their deaths wreak even more havoc in the ranks of Russia’s military forces.
After the initial early rush, the Russian military exhausted its grand offensive capability for all five key axes.
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Very obvious also is the fact that Russia has already used its full manpower stock prepared against Ukraine. And, as numerous indications suggest, it has no serious reserves ready.
It is also struggling to collect low-quality and low-readiness reserves, particularly from Russian military bases in Armenia and the unrecognized breakaway South Ossetia, as well as from unprepared units from the Far East.
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Nonetheless, even despite the dire situation, Putin has stopped short of declaring an all-out or at least a partial mobilization in Russia for his “special operation,” most likely due to the severe political costs such a step could entail.
When it comes to the possible direct involvement of the Belarusian military in western Ukraine, the momentum of shock and awe is also gone.
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Having neither any combat experience nor motivation, the Belarusian military would have to fight against a prepared Ukrainian western military group in complicated woodland terrain supported by local paramilitaries.
According to many observers, including the ISW, the possible direct Belarusian intervention to support Russia is unlikely to happen or be successful.
In other words, what was deemed a short lull to regroup and fix supply shortages turned quickly into Russia having to switch to stationary warfare due to the defeat of the initial offensive campaign and a lack of manpower.
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Meanwhile, Ukraine enters this new stage in better shape than many expected.
Ukraine had to yield some territory in the initial days. But it has managed to preserve the overwhelming majority of its Armed Forces, including its air fleet, through the initial crushing Russian attacks, and effectively stop all of their axes of advancement.
The stubborn resistance of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kherson, has bought a lot of time for the rest of the country to wake up, launch the mobilization of Ukraine’s abundant combat-experienced reserves, and get cities and regions prepared for multilayered defense.
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The Ukrainian military has also been careful and savvy in urban combat, inviting Russian mechanized forces into close quarters rather than confronting them in the open, when Russian close air support is still strong.
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In general, the new phase of war sees Russia forced into halting its exhausted advancements and Ukraine saving and expanding its full combat potential.
The key factor now is Ukraine’s ability to keep exhausting the Russian military for as long as possible. As such, Western suffocation of the Russian economy is vital.
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In achieving victory, the next big mission is to eliminate the Russian presence in the air.
