- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 61,436
- Reaction score
- 486,008
APR 15, 2022
Russo-Ukrainian war, day 52: Russian missiles hit Kyiv, 7 dead after shelling of evacuation buses near Kharkiv | Euromaidan Press
[...]
Assessment by Hans Petter Midttun
I guess most of us have heard a child’s excuse for a brawl: “It all started when he hit me back!” Today it is also being used by the Russian Federation. Having waged war against Ukraine for more than 8 years already, it argues that any Ukrainian retaliation against Russia on its territory will trigger even more widespread airstrikes, missile strikes and bombing.
Russia threatens the USA and NATO countries with “unpredictable consequences” if they continue helping Ukraine defend itself against Russian brutalities.
It threatens Sweden and Finland with revoking the nuclear-free status in the Baltics if they decide to join NATO.
Russia’s reply to the Western sanctions is more threats: Threat of escalation. The nuclear “card” has been played more than once. Its rhetoric has become increasingly more belligerent and describes our attempt to curb its atrocities as an act of aggression, a total, economic, information, and cultural war against Russia.
Its actions not only threaten the Ukrainian state and nation but also global food security. It undermines the global security architecture itself and consequently, threatens peace, stability, and prosperity
Despite all of this – despite everything that our liberal democracies are based on is at stake – some countries remain reluctant to do what it takes to stop the Russian Federation, apparently believing that everything will return to normal eventually. And while doing that, they themselves introduce the final threat: The threat of making NATO irrelevant and destroying the Alliance from within.
It is hard to accept that the war might continue for 4-6 more months when we know it might be stopped within weeks if the West either introduced full energy sanctions, enforces an UN-mandated No-Fly Zone, started a Humanitarian Intervention operation to help defend Ukraine or all of the above.
I will, however, offer one prediction. The USA and NATO will soon be forced to reconsider their military options as their stocks of weapons and ammunition are running low.
The NATO members have not only downsized their command and force structure for the last two decades. They have also kept their stock of ammunition and spare parts to a minimum. Even more importantly, one might also find that the European defence industry – and therefore their ability to regenerate new forces – has been equally reduced.
This means that NATO might be forced to employ other weapon systems and forces altogether. The longer the energy sanctions remain off the table, the higher the risk for an active NATO engagement in Ukraine.
Russo-Ukrainian war, day 52: Russian missiles hit Kyiv, 7 dead after shelling of evacuation buses near Kharkiv | Euromaidan Press
[...]
Assessment by Hans Petter Midttun
I guess most of us have heard a child’s excuse for a brawl: “It all started when he hit me back!” Today it is also being used by the Russian Federation. Having waged war against Ukraine for more than 8 years already, it argues that any Ukrainian retaliation against Russia on its territory will trigger even more widespread airstrikes, missile strikes and bombing.
Russia threatens the USA and NATO countries with “unpredictable consequences” if they continue helping Ukraine defend itself against Russian brutalities.
It threatens Sweden and Finland with revoking the nuclear-free status in the Baltics if they decide to join NATO.
Russia’s reply to the Western sanctions is more threats: Threat of escalation. The nuclear “card” has been played more than once. Its rhetoric has become increasingly more belligerent and describes our attempt to curb its atrocities as an act of aggression, a total, economic, information, and cultural war against Russia.
Its actions not only threaten the Ukrainian state and nation but also global food security. It undermines the global security architecture itself and consequently, threatens peace, stability, and prosperity
Despite all of this – despite everything that our liberal democracies are based on is at stake – some countries remain reluctant to do what it takes to stop the Russian Federation, apparently believing that everything will return to normal eventually. And while doing that, they themselves introduce the final threat: The threat of making NATO irrelevant and destroying the Alliance from within.
It is hard to accept that the war might continue for 4-6 more months when we know it might be stopped within weeks if the West either introduced full energy sanctions, enforces an UN-mandated No-Fly Zone, started a Humanitarian Intervention operation to help defend Ukraine or all of the above.
I will, however, offer one prediction. The USA and NATO will soon be forced to reconsider their military options as their stocks of weapons and ammunition are running low.
The NATO members have not only downsized their command and force structure for the last two decades. They have also kept their stock of ammunition and spare parts to a minimum. Even more importantly, one might also find that the European defence industry – and therefore their ability to regenerate new forces – has been equally reduced.
This means that NATO might be forced to employ other weapon systems and forces altogether. The longer the energy sanctions remain off the table, the higher the risk for an active NATO engagement in Ukraine.
