Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #2

[Dotta]

I live in fnq I run/walk 5kms - I never take water it’s a hassle to hold , I drink before & afterwards … if I was going out for day I would take water .
I don’t think it matters whether she did or didn’t
I

One should always suit oneself.

That is my motto.
Live and let live.
Etc, etc...

 

[jjleroche]

I'm not entirely sure - speculation. I wonder if someone had been trying to extort money from their company.

I'm starting to think that this possibility makes the most sense, particularly with regard to comments made by Samantha's daughter, and her friends, about her strength.
Jess said her mother was “a really strong woman, and she’s far too determined to give up this fight”.
This comment has me wondering if Samantha, and/or other family members have been threatened, and she has been adamant that the family shouldn't give in. IMO revenge and money are both motives. JMO

 

[touch]

I live in fnq I run/walk 5kms - I never take water it’s a hassle to hold , I drink before & afterwards … if I was going out for day I would take water .
I don’t think it matters whether she did or didn’t

It might matter, it might not.

If she normally takes water with her every time she goes running but didn't this time that might indicate that she didn't actually plan on going for a run.
If she never takes water with her then there's nothing unusual about this time.
Some runners take water, some dont. Each of us trying to apply our own preference or guess based on the weather conditions to decide whether or not she should have taken water with her doesn't really help - we'd need to know what her preference was.

 

[Littleguy7]

Does anyone know where she was the previous night? At their home or out somewhere? SM and MM together or with kids or SM alone?

 

[tiff]

It might matter, it might not.

If she normally takes water with her every time she goes running but didn't this time that might indicate that she didn't actually plan on going for a run.
If she never takes water with her then there's nothing unusual about this time.
Some runners take water, some dont. Each of us trying to apply our own preference or guess based on the weather conditions to decide whether or not she should have taken water with her doesn't really help - we'd need to know what her preference was.

There’s quite a bit of uncertainty whether she was walking or jogging. Walking, yes, take a bottle. Jogging or running, no way. Try it, it’s uncomfortable and if you were jogging 10k for a 10k run you were training for, you wouldn’t need it. The type of effort -walk, jog, run - and proposed distance (remember she was only training for a 10km (I think) - 10/15/20km make it very confusing. A fast runner will only cover 20kms in 2hrs at peak condition. That’s not her. Yet the cops originally said she ran that distance regularly. Where did they get thwt info from? MM? And who told him that? SM. So what was she really doing…

 

[tiff]

Does anyone know where she was the previous night? At their home or out somewhere? SM and MM together or with kids or SM alone?

I believe they were out for dinner.

 

[tiff]

I'm starting to think that this possibility makes the most sense, particularly with regard to comments made by Samantha's daughter, and her friends, about her strength.
Jess said her mother was “a really strong woman, and she’s far too determined to give up this fight”.
This comment has me wondering if Samantha, and/or other family members have been threatened, and she has been adamant that the family shouldn't give in. IMO revenge and money are both motives. JMO

I’m starting to think there’s an ex involved..she doesn’t want to see him

 

[DK007]

There’s a pretty big age difference between her kids.. 2nd or 3rd marriage possibly? Is the previous husband involved? Has she gone back to him?

Was SM married previously? I haven’t read anything as yet to confirm previous marriage ?

 

[Minaka]

I'm a brand new member and I hope this helps someone piece a little bit together. When anyone talks or writes about particular cell/mobile providers, if there's any signal whatsoever, all providers will pick up that ping. That's how you can make an emergency call even if you have no connection or plan with another provider. But all mobile providers are still collecting that ping.

Here are two cell tower maps from the Australian communications and media authority. From what I understand, the first police helicopter search at Union Jack Reserve is worth taking into consideration, as it is further south than where that first phone ping was reported. Perhaps a bit of triangulation between signals was already being performed.

fyi I've also posted a wide view of the area with all the other mobile/cell towers.

Edit: Given the sheer number of mobile/cell towers, they seemed pretty sure of the 'last seen' location to commence their first helicopter search. Unless of course there was other information provided.

 

[tiff]

Was SM married previously? I haven’t read anything as yet to confirm previous marriage ?

No mention of a previous partner or husband AFAIA. But the big age gap makes me ? It, and I saw on this page the daughter who spoke on the tv has a different surname. So quite possibly.
Or his previous partner /wife?

 

[butterstick]

Not necessarily done any homework. Anthony Parsons was a cyclist in Scotland who was hit by a drunk driver.

Oh what a sad story, and he was on a charity ride too.
So strange how the crims confide in people. But if it wasn't for that it may never of been solved. Really makes me worry we won't ever see a solution to the William Tyrrell case, but there's still time for SM.

 

[Dotta]

I'm a brand new member and I hope this helps someone piece a little bit together. When anyone talks or writes about particular cell/mobile providers, if there's any signal whatsoever, all providers will pick up that ping. That's how you can make an emergency call even if you have no connection or plan with another provider. But all mobile providers are still collecting that ping.

Here are two cell tower maps from the Australian communications and media authority. From what I understand, the first police helicopter search at Union Jack Reserve is worth taking into consideration, as it is further south than where that first phone ping was reported. Perhaps a bit of triangulation between signals was already being performed.

fyi I've also posted a wide view of the area with all the other mobile/cell towers.

Welcome to WS !!!
Greeting "Haka"
Ooops, I'm not Australian

 

[BreakingNews]

If you want coverage in regional Vic you tend to go with Telstra, too many blackspts with the others.

MOO

Same is Qld

 

[BreakingNews]

Not necessarily done any homework. Anthony Parsons was a cyclist in Scotland who was hit by a drunk driver. The driver then removed the body and bicycle and the police never found any evidence of the crime on the road despite a comparatively small search area (confined to about 7 miles of road). The body was only discovered several years later when the driver showed his girlfriend where he had buried the body and she told the police.

Admin has asked us to stay topic of MS. Bringing in other cases doesn't add anything and only confused the case at hand.

 

[Toowong(s)]

Hi all,

I have been reading along since start of Thread 1, such a frustrating and fascinating case and a bit close to home as I live an hour or so away in Melbourne and travel to Ballarat a few times a year, it’s a beautiful historic town full of amazing people.

So glad we have WS to keep us thinking and occupied with interesting theories in a media vacuum. Shout out to those like me that mostly read along and rarely post, and thanks to all the wonderful posters, especially those devotees who follow multiple cases and bring amazing insights from similar circumstances.

Finger crossed for a miracle…

A couple of observations some might find interesting/useful:

The Police have been very clear that SM left the property around 7am, they say they have footage of SM walking up the driveway toward the road, but don’t know which direction she went. Presumably because the camera angles down, or driveway curve, trees or all three. Or maybe just that the footage is only a short snippet and cuts out just as SM reaches the road. Our home cameras are battery powered and only take a 15 second clip each time they are motion triggered. The default setting is time limited to preserve battery power and disc space on the drive the data is saved to. This limited footage situation could be why Police are sure SM left the property but are not sure which direction she went.

On the CCTV topic, while the Police don’t know which way SM turned, I suspect they are confident which way SM did NOT turn, due to the other (proven to be not SM) footage around 7.15am also on SM’s street from a neighbours CCTV just down the road. While that person captured turned out not to be SM, if SM had gone in that particular direction then surely that same neighbours CCTV camera would have picked up footage of SM running past as well, a few minutes before or after. I think it’s quite close so likely SM leaving at 7am would have gone past before the second runner at 7.15am. The point being as soon as that footage was deemed not to be SM it became fairly safe to assume SM did not turn in that direction. If she did go jogging she must have turned the other direction. Sort of obvious when you think about so apologies if so, but in all my reading of the tread I don’t think that deduction has been pointed out.

Also I’m a similar age to SM and safe to say not as fit! I regularly go on 5-10km walk/runs in Melbourne and never take water, it’s just a hassle to carry together with phone and keys, so I take a big drink before I go and drink lots when I get back. Also I say walk/run, as I’m building up fitness after a slack period, so can’t run the full distance (yet) but try to run as much of it as I can. There is some inconsistently in reporting as to whether SM was walking or running and how far she planned to run. I suspect she was building up and her friends / family weren’t completely across where she’s was at on the build up, hence the inconsistency.

Interestingly I let my dogs out of the house into the yard before I go for my walk/run, so they can do their business after sleeping inside all night. Then I clean up and put the poo bags in the bin, and put the dogs back inside the house. Occasionally I take one or both of them on the run but they just get all tangled up, spot to sniff, wee, poo, sniff other dogs - so I find it easier to leave them at the house and walk them to the off leash park separately, later. So I can relate to the pre-run poo bag image although I sincerely hope that’s not the last known image we see of SM (or myself).

Lastly I’m fascinated by the lack of info from the Police and media. Vic Police have been great of late solving unusual and complex crimes, but they are almost always very tight lipped until the arrest. Hopefully they are onto something.

While statistically and listening to the seasoned sleuths here the chances are the suspect is close to home, personally I feel if the suspect was close to home we would have seen more police search activity close to home in the media.

If it was some injury, snake bite or other unfortunate jogging misadventure I’m sure the searchers would have found SM by now one way pt another. If this scenario was at all likely Police would still be searching the woods - clearly they’ve put a line through that option a week ago and moved on to another strong lead.

I feel if there was a random violent attacker in the woods there would be warnings, especially given members of the public continue to search for SM in the woods.

Which leaves for me in reverse order of probability:
3. Intentional disappearance and/or self harm by SM (but I find so hard to believe).
2. Some sort of extortion or stalker situation. 1. A random driver accident and cover up. They seem to be narrow roads and paths, and a known area for dumping stolen cars in the bush, so the working theory is a bad actor taking a stolen car into the bush, perhaps driving fast on dirt roads, accidentally hitting SM and then covering their tracks.

Again, fingers crossed for a miracle. Sorry for the long post, a bit to get off the chest. Keep sleuthing I hope someone finds those thought bubbles interesting.

PS. So sad about Ruby the dog. To quote one of my favourite songs, dogs are the best people and Ruby sounds like no exception embarking on an adventure to find mum.

 

[Annamarie777]

It's not unheard of for rural women to take their own lives in privacy after a devastating diagnosis. A rural GP from another goldfields town did it years ago after finding out she had early onset dementia - didn't tell the husband.

Who would be running 20 km a day for weeks with a bad diagnosis ?

 

[touch]

Admin has asked us to stay topic of MS. Bringing in other cases doesn't add anything and only confused the case at hand.

I think it is relevant. One poster said that if someone else is involved then there must be a degree of calculation in order to leave no evidence. The other case I mentioned is an example of a situation where a non-premediated crime has left no evidence.
I'm not trying to open any further discussion on that case - it's just cited as an example to show the possibility of a similar thing happening here.

 

[Minaka]

Hi Toowong(s), you wrote

'The Police have been very clear that SM left the property around 7am, they say they have footage of SM walking up the driveway toward the road'

One has to wonder why that CCTV has not yet been released.
We only have a still image with the dog poop bag, but not actual CCTV video. Why? What's to hide?

 

[DK007]

I wonder if SM mb phone was fully charged the morning she left to go for her jog? Has this info been confirmed and made public yet?

 

[Toowong(s)]

Hi Toowong(s), you wrote

'The Police have been very clear that SM left the property around 7am, they say they have footage of SM walking up the driveway toward the road'

One has to wonder why that CCTV has not yet been released.
We only have a still image with the dog poop bag, but not actual CCTV video. Why? What's to hide?

Hi Minaka I agree I can’t see the harm in releasing it but I suspect it’s withheld to stop us sleuthers and the press speculating more than necessary. If all it shows is SM waking up her driveway what does it achieve for the Police by releasing it? I take their word that that’s what it shows, that is all we can do….

It occurred to me they would also have footage of SM picking up dog poop which we hopefully never see either.

It’s a “need to know” approach by our Police and aside from fueling our curiosity the Police must think there is no value in sharing it just for us and the press to comment on.