snipped for focus
@otto, I like that added piece of information you identified - one does not need to go directly by the refuge de vanesque to get from port de vanesque to hospice de France. That might explain searcher dogs not picking up ED's scent at the refuge, although we really don't know why the LE have declared ED did not make it to / stay at the Refuge.
Since I first postulated the idea (post #249, p. 13 of Thread #2) ED may not have summitted pic de sauvegarde on 11/22, but instead crossed the port de vanesque into France that afternoon, I continue to rally around that idea.
Others have since added some interesting things to consider further, such as what risks ED would have taken to do so, what route she may have taken, and where she may have stopped for the night if she did not make it to hospice de France on 11/22. I am particularly intrigued by the ravins that someone (sorry, I can't recall who upthread) discovered on the way out of the refuge valley - deep holes she may have accidentally fallen into (were they snow covered?).
But IMO, I think it is more likely ED got past a lot of the obvious risks we've been talking about and was far along her route to the hospice de France when she likely stopped for the night - down by the streams and forests, perhaps. I can't say what data is pointing me to that presumption other than ED's preparation and skill. But like I said before, ever since
@ZaZara said she thought ED would be found under trees (way back in Thread #1), that continues to haunt me.
And of course, thinking about the Susan McLean case that was posted upthread to remind us all, I am now wondering to what degree LE and searchers went off-piste looking for ED. For Susan McLean it was a potentially fatal error by the Scotland police. So I wonder if there is any way to find out details about the ED search area (off the trails, etc.). In particular, I'd be curious about the degree to which the trails / environs between the refuge and hospice were searched.
Lastly, I think the whole glacier thing is just sensationalized reporting. It just doesn't make sense, although I like the quote someone found up thread about ED finding glaciers mystical. The only way that scenario would play out is if she purposely risked her life to climb / cross the Maladeta glacier without necessary equipment either on 11/22 or 11/23.
My two cents for today!