Theory Thread - What happened at Pistorius' house on the night of Feb. 13, 2013?

[AJ_DS]

Yes, and we can learn a lot through debate... I certainly have...

Yes… but not only learn… also challenge our knowledge, beliefs and preconceived ideas… this forum is great !

 

[PrimeSuspect]

:welcome6:…

… to the 21st century PrimeSuspect !










… just kidding of course

thank you :takeabow: :giggle:

 

[sleuth-d-]

BBM I don't think it beyond the realms of possibility that OP's initial plan was to claim that Reeva had been shot by an intruder. Or, indeed by himself, whilst he was fighting off an intruder.

At least one of the witnesses testified that it sounded like there was a 'home invasion', the implication being that it sounded as as if both were simultaneously under attack from an intruder.

As we know only Reeva was under attack, why would it sound as if they both were?

i also agree with this.

it is also worth noting that op has previously referred to 'intruders' when searching the house with his gun - so the intruder thought process is already in his head well before 14th feb.

also worth noting that - if the bat sounds were the first sounds heard by mrs stipp - his heavy physical attack had already begun at 3:02; reeva was then screaming; it was very possible from this point that he would be aware that neighbours would be hearing the commotion and an explanation would be needed. 3:02 - 3:15 is a long enough time to be formulating an outline explanation/alibi for his actions. moo

 

[Mr Fossil]

As promised, here's my first draft of OP's phone usage. I'm still working on tying up some of the times (they're quite hard for a Fossil to read) so I'll repost when I've finished.

OP's 4949 phone usage



OP's 0020 phone usage



Any glaring errors or queries, just let me know. But as I said, this is still a work in progress

 

[sleuth-d-]

As promised, here's my first draft of OP's phone usage. I'm still working on tying up some of the times (they're quite hard for a Fossil to read) so I'll repost when I've finished.

OP's 4949 phone usage

View attachment 57289

OP's 0020 phone usage

View attachment 57290

I think you'll need to save the 0020 image to your PC and expand on the screen to read it. Any glaring errors or queries, just let me know. But as I said, this is still a work in progress

unfortunately, the second [0020] phone jpg appears to be too low resolution to read detail.

 

[sleuth-d-]

I’ve appended this to my previous post as it builds on the argument.

In the I2 Analyst Notebook phone usage charts that Moller shows the court the term GPRS is being used generically to mean data connection. Most of the time the data connection is actually 3G, occasionally slipping to 2G. The phone will always attempt to get the best connection available, hence many short 2G connections which are upgraded to 3G when it is offered by the cell tower. This is negotiated via the control channel, the same channel that is also used for SMS messages. The data connection is always on when the phone is on, unless the signal is lost (in an area of poor coverage or tunnel etc.) or the phone is put in Airplane mode. This is why the times shown on Reeva’s chart for each GPRS cell tower are contiguous.

What the chart does not show is data usage but this is available from the carrier (I can see it when I look at my usage online, where is gives times and amounts of data transferred). I imagine this would have been included in the detailed data provided to the judge.

Switching an iPhone on and off when you don’t want to be contacted is time consuming, especially if you do it often. OP would have learned to switch his phone to Airplane mode during his frequent travelling. This suspends the phone’s signal transmission function and is extremely quick to do (if you know how) on an iPhone. You simply slide up the hidden menu and select it to toggle the setting on and off.

When Carice Stander-Viljoen makes the calls on OP’s behalf in the early morning of the 14th the police would have believed that he was using Carice’s phone and thought nothing of it. Carice testifies that she asked OP if there was anyone he wanted to contact.

I believe OP uses Airplane mode rather than switching the phone physically off when he doesn’t wish to be contacted or to stop it ringing and attracting attention to it. It also explains the short GPRS connections to the same cell tower. The cell tower has no reason to re-establish the connection unless of course he’s flicking in and out of Airplane mode, possibly to check for a Voicemail? I’ll put my draft of his phone usage charts up shortly to illustrate this. As an aside it is possible that this is what he does to the 4949 phone each night too when he charges it in the kitchen.

If the above thinking is correct, this tells us a lot and is contrary to what Moller agrees in cross examination by Roux. It may well be possible to tell things from the connection times.

For instance one can see from his phone usage there is no GPRS connection immediately after receiving the call from Pieter Baba. I believe he has switched to Airplane mode. This is no surprise as the call and conversation (“Everything is fine”) put him off his balance. He didn’t expect Baba to be outside. He thought just the Standers would be arriving. Likewise he flicks it on whilst he’s in the garage.

And looking at the previous evening he flicks to Airplane mode when he gets home, when he has dinner and when he goes to sleep. That all makes sense. It's a habit. Then we have the activity that I believe is Reeva discovering something and challenging OP.

Draft OP phone usage analysis to follow shortly.

if the phone details show the op phone was being accessed in the early hours leading up to 3am, then the police have missed a huge piece of evidence to support the fact that at least one of them was awake at this time.

an argument in connection with the op phone possibly supports the phone disappearing.

whatsapp messages, sms, phone calls, voicemail could be retrieved elsewhere. i wonder if the police went as far as to try to retrieve images taken on the phone and subsequently deleted; deleted documents, or deleted web history?

 

[Mr Fossil]

unfortunately, the second [0020] phone jpg appears to be too low resolution to read detail.

Sorry, will figure and repost in a mo

 

[Mr Fossil]

unfortunately, the second [0020] phone jpg appears to be too low resolution to read detail.

I've edited the post and split 0020 into two images ETA make that three!

 

[Giles]

Thanks for the detailed phone info Mr Fossil.

It does seem clear that OP turned on his phone at 1:48am, doesn't it? The fact that the phone makes a GPRS connection at 03:18:45 just 17 seconds before he phoned Stander is just too big a coincidence IMO. The phone must have been off or in Airplane mode before this, which means he was up at 01:48 too.

I don't think this will factor in the judge's decision however as it wasn't highlighted to the Court. I was surprised that Nel didn't mention this in his Closing statements.

 

[Mr Fossil]

if the phone details show the op phone was being accessed in the early hours leading up to 3am, then the police have missed a huge piece of evidence to support the fact that at least one of them was awake at this time.

an argument in connection with the op phone possibly supports the phone disappearing.

whatsapp messages, sms, phone calls, voicemail could be retrieved elsewhere. i wonder if the police went as far as to try to retrieve images taken on the phone and subsequently deleted; deleted documents, or deleted web history?

If my theory is correct I'm contradicting what Moller says to Roux in cross examination.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMPYfZFquM0 @ about 0:58:20

He suggests that the GPRS connections are kept open because there may be an app using it, or email coming in etc. It doesn't mean a user is physically doing something.

I disagree. If my understanding is correct it means simply that the phone is connected to the network. A data connection is always active when the phone has a network signal. He is confusing data transfers with data connection. I do agree that you can't tell who is using the phone. However, and this is the key bit, for the connections to stop and start suggests that the phone is being brought out of Airplane mode (or switched on) which means someone is using it and is awake.

I've read that WhatsApp message cannot be retrieved from the server after 7 days, so if they were deleted and you waited 7 days you'd not be able to get at them. The phone was not is police hands for 11 days. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. Even if it's 30 days, the police could not get access to the phone until earlier this year to find if it had been tampered with. And we don't know that it has, of course.

There were no phone calls or voicemails during the key period. As an aside, I disagree that it is easy to press 121 by mistake, but that's just my opinion.

 

[Mr Fossil]

Thanks for the detailed phone info Mr Fossil.

It does seem clear that OP turned on his phone at 1:48am, doesn't it? The fact that the phone makes a GPRS connection at 03:18:45 just 17 seconds before he phoned Stander is just too big a coincidence IMO. The phone must have been off or in Airplane mode before this, which means he was up at 01:48 too.

I don't think this will factor in the judge's decision however as it wasn't highlighted to the Court. I was surprised that Nel didn't mention this in his Closing statements.

IMO Nel may have been misled by what Moller said to Roux and think it's just an email coming in. If so, he couldn't argue it. He's missed the point that for the GPRS to be activated the phone must have been connected to the network again which means someone was using it. Of course, I could be totally wrong about how it works (I am contradicting Moller) so I will continue with my research. If I'm right then OP definitely knew it was Reeva in the toilet so it's an extremely important point. I need a telecoms engineer to read this and confirm how it really works!

 

[sleuth-d-]

If my theory is correct I'm contradicting what Moller says to Roux in cross examination.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMPYfZFquM0 @ about 0:58:20

He suggests that the GPRS connections are kept open because there may be an app using it, or email coming in etc. It doesn't mean a user is physically doing something.

I disagree. If my understanding is correct it means simply that the phone is connected to the network. A data connection is always active when the phone has a network signal. He is confusing data transfers with data connection. I do however agree that you can't tell who is using the phone. However, and this is the key bit, for the connections to stop and start suggests that the phone is being brought out of Airplane mode (or switched on) which means someone is using it and is awake.

I've read that WhatsApp message cannot be retrieved from the server after 7 days, so if they were deleted and you waited 7 days you'd not be able to get at them. The phone was not is police hands for 11 days. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not.

There were no phone calls or voicemails during the key period. As an aside, I disagree that it is easy to press 121 by mistake, but that's just my opinion.

the three interruptions are of coincidentially similar duration though 5.07/5.02/5.09. could they be apple background events? such as phone app updates, which could possibly override the airplane mode. [just thinking aloud for possible options].

the other point of interest there is the brief location move the phone made, and then it's resting place for the next 23 hours. i wonder where cell tower sphere ah nga 1 and 2 are? clearly not far from op's house...

 

[sleuth-d-]

If my theory is correct I'm contradicting what Moller says to Roux in cross examination.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMPYfZFquM0 @ about 0:58:20

He suggests that the GPRS connections are kept open because there may be an app using it, or email coming in etc. It doesn't mean a user is physically doing something.

I disagree. If my understanding is correct it means simply that the phone is connected to the network. A data connection is always active when the phone has a network signal. He is confusing data transfers with data connection. I do agree that you can't tell who is using the phone. However, and this is the key bit, for the connections to stop and start suggests that the phone is being brought out of Airplane mode (or switched on) which means someone is using it and is awake.

I've read that WhatsApp message cannot be retrieved from the server after 7 days, so if they were deleted and you waited 7 days you'd not be able to get at them. The phone was not is police hands for 11 days. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. Even if it's 30 days, the police could not get access to the phone until earlier this year to find if it had been tampered with. And we don't know that it has, of course.

There were no phone calls or voicemails during the key period. As an aside, I disagree that it is easy to press 121 by mistake, but that's just my opinion.

Re: your aside
121/voicemail... on the iphone 'phone' home screen, voicemail is a direct link at bottom right. i would say a panicy-shaky hand could easily touch this by accident if trying to access the keypad, favourites, the contacts, or the recents, from this screen.

 

[Mr Fossil]

the three interruptions are of coincidentially similar duration though 5.07/5.02/5.09. could they be apple background events? such as phone app updates, which could possibly override the airplane mode. [just thinking aloud for possible options].

the other point of interest there is the brief location move the phone made, and then it's resting place for the next 23 hours. i wonder where cell tower sphere ah nga 1 and 2 are? clearly not far from op's house...

We can't tell what is done during the three late connections, just that they are made. Nothing can bring the phone out of Airplane mode or switch it on other than human intervention.

I think whoever had the phone went for a coffee or went to see if they could delete whatever OP wanted deleting but didn't succeed. That would make it one of his siblings. You've misread the 23:20 as hours, it's minutes. I can't read the 1400 secs properly but I know it's at least this. The police will know where it went next too. We only get to see things up to 8am.

Shere AH covers Hazeldean Square, where there are shops and you can get a coffee. It's just down the road from OP's.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@-25.7824362,28.3680994,15z shows OP's estate, HazelDean Square and the Shere area

 

[Mr Fossil]

Re: your aside
121/voicemail... on the iphone 'phone' home screen, voicemail is a direct link at bottom right. i would say a panicy-shaky hand could easily touch this by accident if trying to access the keypad, favourites, the contacts, or the recents, from this screen.

I was just saying I've never done it but then I've never tried after shooting someone. I agree, a shaky hand could.

 

[Lux et Veritas]

I went back in my notes and found the great discussion below speculating on OP’s Feb 13 meeting.

If, indeed, this was the meeting OP attended that day, if he was drinking at the realtors’ party (and more at home?)*, if he was in a dark and foul mood when he came home - perhaps it was some “last straw” that escalated, that set off the perfect storm that night and he took it out on Reeva.

Total control freak OP couldn’t “get to” Cassidy Taylor-Memmory - he had zero control over her and the looming lawsuit, which would threaten his image and lucrative “brand” ... essentially his entire life** - so Reeva was the closest scapegoat.

Even knowing what little I do about Reeva (look at her warm, loving, supportive messages to OP that day), I simply cannot imagine what she could have done or said that was worthy of death (nothing). No, I think this rage was long-brewing in OP (from his history, doesn’t seem to take much to tick him off) - it had nothing to do specifically with Reeva.

* By the time OP actually got to the police station and hospital for blood tests, most if not all the alcohol would have been gone from his system.

** So what does OP do? He murders Reeva, thereby destroying his image and lucrative brand! It’s clear to me that entitled, out-of-control OP was a time-bomb ... poor Reeva just happened to be at the wrong place at the wrong time with the wrong guy.

I think the meeting must have been to do with the assault case - I've discovered that the case was due to be heard in just one week's time, ie on 20 February 2013. I imagine Taylor-Memmory had just rejected OP's settlement proposal. IMO, OP must have convinced Reeva that he did nothing wrong - hence, she was sympathising and trying to console him. He probably told her that TM had rejected his offer and that she'd got him over a barrel, as, although he was innocent of any wrongdoing, he'd be forced to increase his offer if he wanted to settle the matter out of Court in order to preserve his reputation and sponsorships. He was painting himself as the victim and TM as a female on the make, trying to take advantage of his celebrity status.
http://mg.co.za/article/2013-02-01-00-prior-assault-claim-stalks-oscar-pistorius
- Sherbert

Great post !… it makes a lot of sense : it combines the financial aspect and the nice guy aspect… plus it makes sense OP would attempt to disguise this meeting and news as something purely financial at Trial… having to answer embarrassing questions about assaulting a woman at his murder Trial would be less than ideal.
- AJ_DS

This sounds spot-on to me. CTM's version of what happened is very believable when you take into account OP's reported behaviour towards those women at the Kings Of Leon concert. Let's not forget that article was published long before the events of 14 Feb 2013.
- Cherwell

 

[Lux et Veritas]

A thought just rocketed through my tiny pea brain like a Star Trek tribble at warp speed.

The BALCONY LIGHT.

* OP claims he woke up because it was hot and humid.
* OP claims he got up to retrieve the fan(s) and close the balcony doors and curtains.
* The bedroom balcony light was ON.
* OP claims he wanted to cover the small blue LED light on the amplifier because the light bothered him.

Each of these facts alone is not earth-shaking or damning.
But ... put all the rather mundane, seemingly insignificant case pieces together and like Nel said in closing, you’ve got a mosaic.

Why didn’t OP get up to close the doors and curtains because of the glaring BALCONY LIGHT?!!

No, OP thought it was a grand idea to CLOSE the doors and curtains, cut off all air circulation precisely because it was HOT and HUMID! :lol: This is bizarre and totally illogical on its face (especially as many neighbors also slept with their bedroom balcony doors open that night).

While he never, ever mentions that the BRIGHT BALCONY LIGHT bothered him - that teeny-tiny blue LED light on his amplifier suddenly annoyed the everlovin’ crap out of him. But handy-dandy Reeva’s jeans on the floor would fix that devilish little blue light and keep him occupied while Reeva silently, invisibly disappeared off to the toilet.

A Mosaic of 24K Deceit.

[IMHO the (open) balcony doors, (open) curtains, fans, duvet and jeans were EXACTLY as police first photographed them that morning - there was no police “tampering”. I believe the balcony doors and bathroom window both were ALWAYS open that hot night (air circulation) - that’s why five ear witnesses heard as much as they did. All of OP’s closing/moving/opening was pure fiction.]

Poor Oscar. He thinks he’s so brilliant with his “intruder” story - “ducking and diving” to constantly tailor his story when hit with dead ends, one-way streets ... and Nel.

He’s arrogant enough to actually believe that he’ll skate out of court back to his old life.

Unfortunately, he’s not half as brilliant as even half the members of Websleuths.

Let’s just say I wouldn’t want to commit murder and have a bunch of Websleuthers hot on my trail! LOL

 

[Lux et Veritas]

Yes, although we only get to see OP's phone data from 17:15 on the 13 Feb, we get Reeva's from midday that day, and it shows two of the calls he made to her were from the 4949 'business' phone. She doesn't call him on that number at all. It looks to me like OP switches the business phone off outside what he considers to be business hours. His phone log suggests this and the evidence shows that calls and texts to it were not reaching it overnight because it is switched off.

Sam Taylor testifies that he normally kept this phone downstairs in the kitchen on charge overnight. This is where I believe it was on that night and he switched it with the 0020 phone to buy time. It's the 0020 phone that Nel refers to being on charge in the kitchen. Why would OP take a phone that is switched off to the bathroom? And why did he need 2 phones? In fact, OP slips slightly when telling the court about fetching his "phone ... both my phones" from the bedroom. He often makes these little slips.

OP only uses the 0020 phone that night and I think initially the 4949 phone is in the kitchen as usual. So why swap it? My guess is that this is key to what happened. The 0020 phone mysteriously disappears and isn't handed back to police until 25 Feb. OP needed to get it out of the house and away from the police. No chain of custody and nothing is read out from that phone's data (just billing records) in court. But the judge has sight of what, or what was not, on it. Was it tampered with? If so, I'd expect some legal action to follow this case.

Following this line of thought, what could be incriminating on the phone that had to be removed? Evidence of someone else?

OP was asleep. Reeva was up (another OP slip perhaps in his EIC when he states twice that he asked Reeva to close curtains etc. "when you come, when you fall asleep". e.g. when you come up/come to bed). At some point she sees something on his phone, maybe something to do with the usage at around 22:30-midnight. At 01:48 she confronts OP about it (5 mins usage on phone). At 01:56 EvdM hears arguing for an hour. Reeva is shouting at OP. She tells him she is leaving. Perhaps what she finds on his phone is damaging to brand Pistorius? We may never know. The result is as we know and it costs Reeva her life.

I find it strange and disturbing that NO messages were read from OP’s 0020 phone, especially in light of the fact it was MISSING for 11 days. Something totally hinky there. Given his career, lifestyle and wide circle of friends and associates, surely he had a massive digital history. I GUARANTEE you there was highly incriminating sh#t on that phone - if not directly regarding Reeva, then other potentially related, damning issues.

I think Carl, being an IT graduate (or having access to the best and brightest computer professional buddies), was all too willing to selectively scrub clean baby brother’s phone. There would be NO other reason to immediately remove it from the crime scene.

 

[jimmy73]

Lux, not to digress, but do you think OP (assuming his guilt for a moment ;-)) has confided in a family member? I'm under the impression they are all under his spell.

Sent from my Windows Phone 8X by HTC using Tapatalk

 

[44ALLAN]

Does anyone follow why, having spoken softly to Reeva, OP might be going in and out of stealth mode by intermittently shouting and screaming as he approached the bathroom? Even though I'm convinced he's guilty, I have tried to see things from his perspective - I can even understand his covering the LED light - but I can't get my head around this. On the numerous occasions I've been checking for an intruder, I've crept around silently, checking behind doors, etc - the last thing I'd do would be to scream my head off, losing the advantage to be gained from silence.

BIB...............you can?
Why?
There were numerous other LED lights next to that one that he chose to ignore !

Also...............why did it bother him 'THAT' night?

Sorry but for want of a better explanation about the blue LED......................what a crock of SXXx .

IMO and please don't take offence