Mr. Noatek,
Really glad you are back on this thread after your absence for a bit. I imagine you to be ensconced in a leather chair in your library at home, having a spot of bletted medlar on toast, with an aged port, grumbling about the noisy neighborhood children (who are somewhat afraid of you), though you secretly put a brand new soccer ball in their yard as you walked your corgi late the previous evening. Please don't shatter my illusions.
Way back when you entered this thread or not long thereafter, you said at one point you could solve this case if you had - was it the answers to three things...? I can't find that post. One of them was who took a lie detector test and what the results were. Or, who did NOT take a test. I can't remember - I was very curious at the time to hear what those three points would reveal. But you never said. Do those three things still stand as being critical to solving this case for you? And what were they, since I can't remember?
My opinions only, no facts here:
I have been previously been warned by the moderator about hinting or baiting (I am innocent I tell you! I have an alibi!), so let me say this properly-
if I had two or three of the following pieces of information from an official source, I would feel that a reasonable suspect could be identified:
Who has taken polygraphs? (I do not need to know the results of the polygraphs)
Did the neighbor hear (beyond any reasonable doubt) a woman scream or is this rumor? [THIS IS NOW ANSWERED!]
What and where was the 'second significant item' found?
Did the search dogs definitely show that Holly was not led into the woods west from the house?
Why did the police conduct a search at the intersection of 5 Forks and Swan Johnson Road?
Why did the police conduct a search north of Bible Hill (where the lunch bag or box was found)?
Why has the indentify of the 'second significant item' not been revealed to the public?
The crime feels premeditated, in two possible ways: the perpetrator knew all about the victim through direct and regular contact, OR, the perpetrator was on the fringes of the victim's social sphere and acquired information from "a distance".
To quote what I said a long time ago: "Currently I hold out a small chance that Holly is still alive (5%). I would not hold out any hope in an ordinary case, but this is not an ordinary case. Regardless of where the investigation is being directed, I favor 3:1 that Holly is within four miles of her house, but obviously my ratio shows that I do not rule out her being farther away, even out of state."
Another statement I previously made, that still works for me: "This is a big IF, but if the scanty information we have been provided is correct regarding witness accounts, timing, and physical evidence, I hypothesize that Holly was led NE or SE from the house to a waiting vehicle on or near Swan Johnson Road. From there the vehicle traveled north to the intersection of 5 Forks and Swan Johnson Road. Somewhere after that she is no longer in the vehicle and evidence is placed in various areas (I believe more items remain to be found) while traveling on a circuitous clockwise route around the general area of the crime." The rumored two pieces of evidence make no sense; why would a perpetrator hide evidence in plain sight? For crying out loud, just stick the evidence under a log or whatever. The evidence was either planted by the perpetrator to mislead investigators or the perpetrator was really panicky and immature. But if the latter were true, the perpetrator would have been caught bragging about the crime by now.
It has occurred to me that the police may have recovered skin cell DNA from the "significant items" that were found, but cannot get a match from those whom they have tested. It has also occurred to me that the police may be waiting to see if the bill to allow familial DNA in Tennessee passes and becomes law on Jan. 1, 2012. This is a big deal. With familial DNA, even if you cannot get a direct match, you may discover a near-match from a relative who has previously committed a serious crime. You can then go and monitor or question family members, to identify other black sheep relatives. This is a VERY POWERFUL investigative tool.
Heck, my glass of sherry is getting low!