TX TX-Hunt, Overnight flooding at Camp Mystic, all girls camp. Unknown number of missing. July 4, 2025

[mickey2942]

Is it common to not have even a rough estimate of how many missing people there are? Surely they can count the camp rosters, the number of ten camp sites, the number of RV camp sites....etc

Which, those records are probably washed away. And who knows about unhoused people who may have been camping in the area? Or people who are older, living in old trailers or shotgun houses in the area. There are so many small "nooks and crannies" in that area for dispersed camping. And older homes...it is hard to articulate how many people may have been caught in the flood. Not to mention possible undocumented immigrants in the area.

 

[sunflowermomma]

Which, those records are probably washed away. And who knows about unhoused people who may have been camping in the area? Or people who are older, living in old trailers or shotgun houses in the area. There are so many small "nooks and crannies" in that area for dispersed camping. And older homes...it is hard to articulate how many people may have been caught in the flood. Not to mention possible undocumented immigrants in the area.

Right but they know how many campsites fit on the property, and how many RVs fit on the property. They have enough information to provide a rough estimate IE if there were 50 campsites, 50+ people missing. They don't need a list of names to say "We typically have 1000 campers in the area for the 4th of July holiday".

 

[Teche]

Water is a force of nature that sometimes cannot be prepared for. Showing my age as I have a few memories of my late dad spending days searching for survivors/victims. He worked for DuPont, but volunteered. It came at night and struck so quickly.
Hurricane Camille (August 1969) - Encyclopedia Virginia

Prayers to all involved.

The nighttime disasters are difficult to maneuver.

My brother was in college but worked on a tug boat in Gulfport during Camile. The boat rode out the hurricane because the crew couldn't get off in time. The communication system was poor and people had to rely on the Red Cross to learn if their loved ones were safe. Luckily the tug boat captain and the majority of the crew were Cajuns and were accustomed to riding out hurricanes.

We have a whole house generator that is fueled by natural gas. It turns on automatically whenever we lose power, which is frequently, so it’s a godsend (though an expensive one).

if you have natural gas, a homeowner can have a plumber attach an outdoor gas valve and a special hose to connect the generator. It’s a relatively cheap alternative. We downsized a couple of years ago and installed a whole-house generator.

My son has propane only. He attached the propane to his generator. He has to be mindful of using it because if trees are down, getting the tank refilled is sketchy. He lives in Orleans Parish.

 

[Cryptic]

Is it common to not have even a rough estimate of how many missing people there are? Surely they can count the camp rosters, the number of ten camp sites, the number of RV camp sites....etc

I think given the totality, it is not unusual to have only a rough estimate due to the following:

- Summer Camps will have complete rosters- somewhere and in some form. How easily a complete roster is available after a flood and whether there are multiple copies of a complete roster will vary by summer camp, however.

- RV camp site, both public and private, can have far more relaxed rosters. Sometimes only the head of the household's name is recorded. Ala John Doe and an unknown number of campers under the six person maximum. Other parks maybe more complete ala John Doe and 4 family members. Still others, may record the entire group: John and Mary Doe and children Susan, Deborah and Andrew.

But....as another poster noted via a "confession", there can also be restrictions on the number of people allowed at each camp site. This can lead to families fudging numbers ala John and Mary Doe, plus kids "A" "B" and "C", family friend "F". But... there are also two additional unrecorded people ("U" and "P") at the site as well.

 

[OddOneOut]

Right but they know how many campsites fit on the property, and how many RVs fit on the property. They have enough information to provide a rough estimate IE if there were 50 campsites, 50+ people missing. They don't need a list of names to say "We typically have 1000 campers in the area for the 4th of July holiday".

All of that information may have been washed away too. We don't know what information local governments kept or didn't keep. It could be the only information to indicate how many camp sites, etc. there were, is only found in any advertising the campgrounds may have made.

 

[IceIce9]

In my opinion, now is exactly the time to talk about and fix this. Not for blame, but for getting a move on it so that this type of disaster can be prevented in the future. It's all awful, but maybe some infrastructure could be put in place to prevent this from happening again.

Edit: what better time to fix things, than when public sentiment and attention is focused on the flooding?

Is it common to not have even a rough estimate of how many missing people there are? Surely they can count the camp rosters, the number of ten camp sites, the number of RV camp sites....etc

If there are “Group Campsites” they are often reserved by the group instead of individual camper’s name. My friends and I camp frequently, and in several states where we have camped you can rent a large area of adjoining campsites or even an entire campground with just the name of the group or responsible individual. Then dozens of people, both children and adults, camp under the name of the group, with no record of each individual and no count of the number of campers.

I have been the “responsible person” for group camping before, several times. It is difficult to keep track of the number of people who are camping in the group, because some people bring friends or relatives, others come and go from the camp.

And even if you count the number of campsites usually only one person’s name is recorded no matter how many are actually camping on the site.

Not saying this is the reason in this case but it is possible.

 

[sunflowermomma]

All of that information may have been washed away too. We don't know what information local governments kept or didn't keep. It could be the only information to indicate how many camp sites, etc. there were, is only found in any advertising the campgrounds may have made.

I find it very difficult to believe that there are no digital records at all - a website, a payment roster, a fire evacuation route, anything - that would tell authorities how many people could be estimated to be in a given area of the town at a given time. There are no way that businesses are operating solely pen to paper in 2025 with no digital footprint. And if that's the case then there's a significant amount of work to be done at the local government level to modernize and take the most basic precautions.

If the answer is truly that no one in the police, fire, county assessor office, tax assessor office, or other entities were keeping track of their town there are much bigger issues at hand. MOO.

 

[Stunned]

The sad reality with flash floods is that they aren't going to be able to recover all of the bodies.

You're right. My mind was numb when I made that statement. Rage! Against the ones who are making this political Again! Rage!

 

[mickey2942]

@IceIce9 true. My grandparents used to get a campsite every 4th of July. Aunt, uncles, cousins, friends, came and went all week long. Sometimes 100 people, sometimes 25. Constant flux.

 

[sunflowermomma]

Sounds like Abbott is addressing all of my questions in this thread at the press conference happening right now! I should be more patient.

 

[BayouBelle_LA]

From the press conference with Governor Abbott -

Still missing

5 campers from Camp Mystic
1 counselor from Camp Mystic
1 child not associated with Camp Mystic
161 known missing from Kerr County
12 missing from all other counties

ETA- Death Toll 109

 

[Chimera]

The sad reality with flash floods is that they aren't going to be able to recover all of the bodies.

Ita.
And that's horrible.
Praying all can be found for their families.
Imo.

 

[jesse]

I’m sorry if this was covered but was the lovely camp mystic truly built on a dry river bed does anyone know?( Geology is the only science I was capable of passing in college and I remember dry river bed floods were astounding.)

No, it wasn't. It was on the riverbanks.

 

[Chimera]

The death toll is staggering.
Unfathomable.
If mistakes or oversight contributed to this tragedy, changes need to be made regardless of cost.
So that it never happens again.
A siren system ... or homes/places of business located far from any flood danger.
Imo.

 

[vls12345]

SCAD student among victims killed in Texas floods

The school said she recently worked on a community project helping Goodwill Southeast Georgia redesign its donation centers

www.wsbtv.com

 

[vls12345]

Body of Texas officer who went missing during flooding disaster found

Keep the family of Officer Bailey Martin in your thoughts.

www.11alive.com

 

[DS2021]

Death toll surpasses 100, at least 160 missing in Texas floods

Follow live updates on the Texas floods, where the death toll has surpassed 100, including Camp Mystic counselors and campers.

www.nbcnews.com

More than 160 people are still missing after deadly Texas floods, governor says

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott says more than 160 people are believed to be still missing days after flash floods killed more than 100 people across central Texas.

apnews.com

Over 160 missing

At least 110 dead

5 camp mystic girls and 1 camp counselor are still missing

 

[DS2021]

Is it common to not have even a rough estimate of how many missing people there are?

They've set up a hotline for families to call. The estimate of missing is currently over 160

 

[IceIce9]

@IceIce9 true. My grandparents used to get a campsite every 4th of July. Aunt, uncles, cousins, friends, came and went all week long. Sometimes 100 people, sometimes 25. Constant flux.

We camp frequently, usually in state parks in different states. Even if it is just my family reserving one space we have never been asked how many people will be on the campsite. Sometimes there are rules posted that say “No more than 10 campers per site” but the rule doesn’t seem to be enforced. I’ve only seen the rangers talk to groups that are being noisy or rowdy, but even then they just advise them to quiet down.

 

[Chimera]

So the only estimates for the missing ... would be if families know their loved ones were camping in that general area, and can't get a hold of them ?