UK UK - Claudia Lawrence, 35, Chef, York University, 18 March 2009 #7

[MEKON]

W

Will this case be solved by mathematics though I or good solid policing?

Both

 

[keep-it-real]

I

I don't believe he loaned her his car or offered her lifts to work.... Whereas her mum Joan has stated that she offered to pick her up and take her to work & offered her money for a taxi but CL did not accept these offers.....

Theres no doubt she had options and apart from the options avail offered by her parents there were also those avail to her that would not cause inconvience.
Snelling and Oxer had previously given her lifts to work. They worked at the college and made the journey daily so no great inconvienince for them to pick her up.
Her car was in the garage for repair so looking closely as to how she travelled to and from work on those days until the morning of the 18th should give an insight into of what usually happened and what happened that was different.
We know
David Oxer says he didnt offer her a lift to work on the morning of the 19th .. He says he didnt know why but he took a completely different route.
As far as we are aware David Snelling didnt give her a lift
A female colleague gave her an impromptu lift when walking home from work on the 18th.
We now she had a bicycle she didnt use it on the 18th ..did she use it on any other days

I certainly think there is a strong possiblity that she had a lift to work on the morning of the 17th and it was by the person she spent the night of the 16th with (wether this was from her home or somewhere else)This could be easily confirmed by the cctv on her route if she wasnt seen on foot she travelled in a vehicle.

Given that she would accept an impromtu lift its comletely feasible that if she was offered just such a lift by someone she knew only recently or fleetingly she would have taken it.

 

[Popejohn3]

Theres no doubt she had options and apart from the options avail offered by her parents there were also those avail to her that would not cause inconvience.
Snelling and Oxer had previously given her lifts to work. They worked at the college and made the journey daily so no great inconvienince for them to pick her up.
Her car was in the garage for repair so looking closely as to how she travelled to and from work on those days until the morning of the 18th should give an insight into of what usually happened and what happened that was different.
We know
David Oxer says he didnt offer her a lift to work on the morning of the 19th .. He says he didnt know why but he took a completely different route.
As far as we are aware David Snelling didnt give her a lift
A female colleague gave her an impromptu lift when walking home from work on the 18th.
We now she had a bicycle she didnt use it on the 18th ..did she use it on any other days

I certainly think there is a strong possiblity that she had a lift to work on the morning of the 17th and it was by the person she spent the night of the 16th with (wether this was from her home or somewhere else)This could be easily confirmed by the cctv on her route if she wasnt seen on foot she travelled in a vehicle.

Given that she would accept an impromtu lift its comletely feasible that if she was offered just such a lift by someone she knew only recently or fleetingly she would have taken it.

You make a lot of sense.
I do believe the report that her dad gave her his car on occasions when he was on holidays ( did she drive him to the airport and which airport ?) and maybe even during the weekends when he was not at work .

 

[MEKON]

Pl

Pleased about that
You could summarise what the stats would say about Claudias killer
Age
Gender
Social demographic
Etc.

If we use the work of Stephen Jones (criminology) - 1998 Chapter 3 - p47:

''Although many people might agree with Benjamin Disraeli's view that there are 'lies,damned lies and statistics', statistical information is still disseminated by politicians and the mass media and cited in discussion as if it represented an accurate reflection of the phenomenon under consideration. This is just as true with crime statistics as with many other,and they are often referred to by the media as if they provide a true measurement of crime. Yet, it is now increasingly accepted that criminal statistics provide a deficient guide to both the level of crime and trends in criminal behaviour''

Thus; it could be considered that statistics just one legitimate part of solving a puzzle. Caution over statistics need to be taken; as every case is distinct, and Crime patterns change for example, within the type of criminal act committed

So; using the source of Tim Newburn - CRIMINOLOGY (2007) Chapter 20 - p439-444 and Hale,Hayward,Wahidin and Wincup - CRIMINOLOGY (2005) Chapter 11 page 228-235 :



AGE: 85% of murders are committed by someone under the age of 39 yrs old
40% of individuals that committed murder were aged between 15 and 24 yrs old
62% of those that were convicted of murder were aged under 29 yrs old

There's further claims that the peak age of offending for homicide perpetrators is 31-35 yrs old


GENDER: Over 33% of female victims were killed by their husbands. I will add a comment to that. Perhaps a statistic would be of a similar nature with female victims killed by their partners?

More than 50% of the persons indicted for murder each year have a familiar relationship, and up to 66-78% of all have had a personal relationship of some duration and/or intensity with the victim. Only about 22-25% of the total number of murder victims have been total strangers to their victims''

Ratio (M:F)

Sexual Offences 75:1
Common Assault 7:1
Violence Against the Person 5.7: 1

In 1992 only 8.7% of convictions for violence against a person were conducted by Females; in 2002 the % was 10%. Meaning between 90-91.3% of the convictions were Male against Female

Males to comprise approx 90% of homicide offenders and have a greater % of offending within crime in general - Thus there is a high chance the perpetrator is obviously Male

• Friend/acquaintence - 40%
• Spouse/cohabitant or former spouse/cohabitant - 15%

SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHIC: Homicide- 48% of the perpetrators in a sample were in non-professional occupations and 46% were unemployed . I'm sure it was 1.6% that was attributed to the professional cohort


To this; we could add that they had endured problems at school/lack of attainment (61%), witnessed or experienced physical and/or sexual abuse (25%), been in care or/and were from broken homes (24%), had alcohol (50%) and/or drug issues (25%), been offending at an early age, held mental health(25%)

 

[MajorLang]

If we use the work of Stephen Jones (criminology) - 1998 Chapter 3 - p47:

''Although many people might agree with Benjamin Disraeli's view that there are 'lies,damned lies and statistics', statistical information is still disseminated by politicians and the mass media and cited in discussion as if it represented an accurate reflection of the phenomenon under consideration. This is just as true with crime statistics as with many other,and they are often referred to by the media as if they provide a true measurement of crime. Yet, it is now increasingly accepted that criminal statistics provide a deficient guide to both the level of crime and trends in criminal behaviour''

Thus; it could be considered that statistics just one legitimate part of solving a puzzle. Caution over statistics need to be taken; as every case is distinct, and Crime patterns change for example, within the type of criminal act committed

So; using the source of Tim Newburn - CRIMINOLOGY (2007) Chapter 20 - p439-444 and Hale,Hayward,Wahidin and Wincup - CRIMINOLOGY (2005) Chapter 11 page 228-235 :



AGE: 85% of murders are committed by someone under the age of 39 yrs old
40% of individuals that committed murder were aged between 15 and 24 yrs old
62% of those that were convicted of murder were aged under 29 yrs old

There's further claims that the peak age of offending for homicide perpetrators is 31-35 yrs old


GENDER: Over 33% of female victims were killed by their husbands. I will add a comment to that. Perhaps a statistic would be of a similar nature with female victims killed by their partners?

More than 50% of the persons indicted for murder each year have a familiar relationship, and up to 66-78% of all have had a personal relationship of some duration and/or intensity with the victim. Only about 22-25% of the total number of murder victims have been total strangers to their victims''

Ratio (M:F)

Sexual Offences 75:1
Common Assault 7:1
Violence Against the Person 5.7: 1

In 1992 only 8.7% of convictions for violence against a person were conducted by Females; in 2002 the % was 10%. Meaning between 90-91.3% of the convictions were Male against Female

Males to comprise approx 90% of homicide offenders and have a greater % of offending within crime in general - Thus there is a high chance the perpetrator is obviously Male

• Friend/acquaintence - 40%
• Spouse/cohabitant or former spouse/cohabitant - 15%

SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHIC: Homicide- 48% of the perpetrators in a sample were in non-professional occupations and 46% were unemployed . I'm sure it was 1.6% that was attributed to the professional cohort


To this; we could add that they had endured problems at school/lack of attainment (61%), witnessed or experienced physical and/or sexual abuse (25%), been in care or/and were from broken homes (24%), had alcohol (50%) and/or drug issues (25%), been offending at an early age, held mental health(25%)

Yawn

 

[MEKON]

Yawn

You asked ..........perhaps everyone on this or any forum should just leave or say nothing and allow you to be the sole contributor

 

[MEKON]

Stephen Jones (criminology) - 1998 Chapter 3 - p64:

''Given all the problems identified with the crime statistics, can they still said to have any value? Some critics have gone as far as to dismiss them as totally useless, but this seems excessively harsh. The requirement when looking at these statistics is to remember their limitations and consider them for what they are. On that basis,some utility can be found''


YAWN

 

[keep-it-real]

Theres no doubt she had options and apart from the options avail offered by her parents there were also those avail to her that would not cause inconvience.
Snelling and Oxer had previously given her lifts to work. They worked at the college and made the journey daily so no great inconvienince for them to pick her up.
Her car was in the garage for repair so looking closely as to how she travelled to and from work on those days until the morning of the 18th should give an insight into of what usually happened and what happened that was different.
We know
David Oxer says he didnt offer her a lift to work on the morning of the 19th .. He says he didnt know why but he took a completely different route.
As far as we are aware David Snelling didnt give her a lift
A female colleague gave her an impromptu lift when walking home from work on the 18th.
We now she had a bicycle she didnt use it on the 18th ..did she use it on any other days

I certainly think there is a strong possiblity that she had a lift to work on the morning of the 17th and it was by the person she spent the night of the 16th with (wether this was from her home or somewhere else)This could be easily confirmed by the cctv on her route if she wasnt seen on foot she travelled in a vehicle.

Given that she would accept an impromtu lift its comletely feasible that if she was offered just such a lift by someone she knew only recently or fleetingly she would have taken it.

Should read Micheal Snelling ..apologies for any confusion

 

[MajorLang]

You asked ..........perhaps everyone on this or any forum should just leave or say nothing and allow you to be the sole contributor

There are many valuable contributions on this thread but what I was saying is that Copy pasting from text books all of the time and posting on here does not IMO add value.
Perhaps if you summarised the findings as I mentioned before so that you provide a profile of who you thought the killer was then that WOULD add value.
This would of course require that you would then have to provide your own work rather than that of others.
Or
You could provide the source of your material and then any interested could go and read it for themselves.
I may be the only person who has pulled you on this and you may not like my comments but then feedback is a gift and you can take it or leave it.

 

[MajorLang]

Should read Micheal Snelling ..apologies for any confusion

@keep-it-real I believe you are spot on here.
The reason she was reluctant to accept her parents help re. Taxis is likely to be because she was elsewhere and travelling to work from a different direction.
I found Oxers statement strange, even taking into account his lateness in comming forward. it sounded as though his previous lift giving was impromptu?
Driving along Heworth road and Melrosegate and perhaps catching her as she walked to work rather than calling for her.
In summary:
She may well have accepted lifts by known passers by, like as you say Jo, that afternoon
She was likely to be often travelling to work not from home but from a night with a "friend"

I was also intrigued as to why NYP did not want to be involved in CH5 Documentary last year. Was it because they were unhappy that Oxer was going to make a statement and be "Star of the show" along with the other soap opera queen JK.and her associate SC. Claudia has many friends of much longer standing then these two. Does anyone wonder why they are given such high profile in this case?
She was known to socialise with many others away from them at the time of her disappearance albeit they have not been named.

 

[Popejohn3]

@keep-it-real I believe you are spot on here.
The reason she was reluctant to accept her parents help re. Taxis is likely to be because she was elsewhere and travelling to work from a different direction.
I found Oxers statement strange, even taking into account his lateness in comming forward. it sounded as though his previous lift giving was impromptu?
Driving along Heworth road and Melrosegate and perhaps catching her as she walked to work rather than calling for her.
In summary:
She may well have accepted lifts by known passers by, like as you say Jo, that afternoon
She was likely to be often travelling to work not from home but from a night with a "friend"

I was also intrigued as to why NYP did not want to be involved in CH5 Documentary last year. Was it because they were unhappy that Oxer was going to make a statement and be "Star of the show" along with the other soap opera queen JK.and her associate SC. Claudia has many friends of much longer standing then these two. Does anyone wonder why they are given such high profile in this case?
She was known to socialise with many others away from them at the time of her disappearance albeit they have not been named.

Agreed but ‘often ‘?

 

[Yozzer]

@keep-it-real

I was also intrigued as to why NYP did not want to be involved in CH5 Documentary last year. Was it because they were unhappy that Oxer was going to make a statement and be "Star of the show" along with the other soap opera queen JK.and her associate SC. Claudia has many friends of much longer standing then these two. Does anyone wonder why they are given such high profile in this case?
She was known to socialise with many others away from them at the time of her disappearance albeit they have not been named.

I would imagine NYP would avoid a programme where they had no control of the narrative, given that it cast a very wide net of possibilities and especially as they (NYP) have already laid out their view that the answer lies 'close to home'.

Regarding the two mentioned, is your question rhetorical? Either they are deliberately inserting themselves into tv investigations or NYP have offered advice to producers on where to look for 'answers'. Reminds me of other high profile cases where this has happened. Does anyone watch Faking It - Tears of a Crime? The more you watch, the more you notice.

 

[Popejohn3]

I would imagine NYP would avoid a programme where they had no control of the narrative, given that it cast a very wide net of possibilities and especially as they (NYP) have already laid out their view that the answer lies 'close to home'.

Regarding the two mentioned, is your question rhetorical? Either they are deliberately inserting themselves into tv investigations or NYP have offered advice to producers on where to look for 'answers'. Reminds me of other high profile cases where this has happened. Does anyone watch Faking It - Tears of a Crime? The more you watch, the more you notice.

You can’t have it both ways here and I know two people are being quoted here :
Nyp did not want to get involved .( one statement)
Then, maybe, nyp told the program producers who to interview !? ( second statement )

How can you claim to be a good friend of Claudia and then refuse to contribute if invited to ?
Good to see you back here @ Yozzer

 

[SimeonOPatrick]

You make a lot of sense.
I do believe the report that her dad gave her his car on occasions when he was on holidays ( did she drive him to the airport and which airport ?) and maybe even during the weekends when he was not at work .

Why did she need his car when she had a car? I'm aware her car was in the garage for repair on the week she disappeared and her mum has said on numerous occasions she offered her a lift or pay a taxi for her to get to work that week but it was not accepted.... I also wonder what the conversation was with the colleague who drove her home on the 17th? Did she walk to work on the 17th or did she get a lift? I think she probably had lifts organised to take her into work that week...if not then why not use her bicycle instead of walking? Find out who the person is that was arranged to drive her to work and we find us the murderer!

 

[Yozzer]

You can’t have it both ways here

Yes I can. NYP can bow out of direct involvement while pointing C5 towards suitable interviewees, thereby having their cake and eating it! As I have suggested, the more opportunity some people have to speak, the more they reveal.

Regarding CL's longer standing friends, I suspect they are cut from a different cloth and will have provided evidence more privately and directly to NYP. Not everyone wants to be a movie star.

 

[keep-it-real]

I would imagine NYP would avoid a programme where they had no control of the narrative, given that it cast a very wide net of possibilities and especially as they (NYP) have already laid out their view that the answer lies 'close to home'.
I agree I think they have laid out there view of what has happened and as far as they are concerned thats it. They blanketed it under the 'in reactive mode' placing it firmly in the hands of the public to come forward with information in doing this it removes the costs involved of keeping an investigation as ongoing.
Not only do you not see NYP participation in any tv programmes their website set up with information regarding Claudias disappearance also appears not to have been updated.
For me the recent article from Neil Wilby 'A dubious Constabulary that merits investigation' (Claudia Lawrence case gets a mention) highlights amongst other things the serious investigative failings within the force and given the initial concerns I had regarding this this more detailed article steers my research further away from the series of events and suspected POI's the NYP have presented in this case.
Given that no external review of the case has been carried out on such a high profile case seems strange to me.
The case remains open but in a reactive mode and can remain so indefinately unless someone comes forward with evidence to activate it again.. While it remain in this mode the public has no access to the case files .

 

[keep-it-real]

You can’t have it both ways here and I know two people are being quoted here :
Nyp did not want to get involved .( one statement)
Then, maybe, nyp told the program producers who to interview !? ( second statement )

How can you claim to be a good friend of Claudia and then refuse to contribute if invited to ?
Good to see you back here @ Yozzer

Were the NYP mentioned in the credits at the end of the programme might be worth a check to clarify

 

[SimeonOPatrick]

Are there any other threads on WS that are worth watching?

 

[Frivolous]

Are there any other threads on WS that are worth watching?

UK - Alexander Stern, 36, last seen at Bull Inn, Sonning, Berkshire, 11 January 2020

Different ideas always welcome!

 

[Popejohn3]

Why did she need his car when she had a car? I'm aware her car was in the garage for repair on the week she disappeared and her mum has said on numerous occasions she offered her a lift or pay a taxi for her to get to work that week but it was not accepted.... I also wonder what the conversation was with the colleague who drove her home on the 17th? Did she walk to work on the 17th or did she get a lift? I think she probably had lifts organised to take her into work that week...if not then why not use her bicycle instead of walking? Find out who the person is that was arranged to drive her to work and we find us the murderer!

I think you got it wrong ... she was without a car for several weeks !