UK UK - Jack O'Sullivan, 22, left friends after night out, last seen Brunel Lock Road/Brunel Way, Bristol at 3.15am, 2 Mar 2024

[Bahshudc]

THANK YOU @infohuntah !!! I’ve been thinking this for a long time. In his last sighting, he was NOT near enough to a body of water to accidentally fall in.

My partner was born and raised in Bristol. Those who are from there know that area very well - it’s not super central, but you certainly drive through that area on the main road beside the swing bridge often. My partner is quite insistent that anybody who is from Bristol is familiar with the swing bridge and that area of town.

This is why the loops / going back on himself, in fact the entire route itself, is so perplexing to me. Nobody in their right mind would take that route unless:

a. they didn’t know the area & got lost / thought that would be the best route.

b. they were planning to be in that location.

If he was going home, the simplest route would avoid the swing bridge area altogether. This is the same for his brother’s house, or in an attempt to get a taxi. There is not a single reason, that I can think of at least, as to why he chose that route, or went near to the water at all (unless this was perhaps a suicide situation.)

There is one theory I have, but it still doesn’t quite make sense. I have mentioned this before, but is there a possibility he went on Apple maps, not knowing the route home, and selected the “directions” button. I’ve often done this on the past, and there are options for each mode of transport; walking, driving, public. Sometimes, you’ll click “directions” and it will assume you’re in a car, giving you a route that you can drive on. This obviously does not include walking routes - I think Jack may have made this mistake and walked to the bridge area, not realising he was given the driving-only route. He was looking at his phone I believe in one or two of the CCTV sightings. However, this would mean he was not familiar enough with the area to realise that this was obviously not the most convenient route…

JMO

 

[SteveH]

THANK YOU @infohuntah !!! I’ve been thinking this for a long time. In his last sighting, he was NOT near enough to a body of water to accidentally fall in.

My partner was born and raised in Bristol. Those who are from there know that area very well - it’s not super central, but you certainly drive through that area on the main road beside the swing bridge often. My partner is quite insistent that anybody who is from Bristol is familiar with the swing bridge and that area of town.

This is why the loops / going back on himself, in fact the entire route itself, is so perplexing to me. Nobody in their right mind would take that route unless:

a. they didn’t know the area & got lost / thought that would be the best route.

b. they were planning to be in that location.

If he was going home, the simplest route would avoid the swing bridge area altogether. This is the same for his brother’s house, or in an attempt to get a taxi. There is not a single reason, that I can think of at least, as to why he chose that route, or went near to the water at all (unless this was perhaps a suicide situation.)

There is one theory I have, but it still doesn’t quite make sense. I have mentioned this before, but is there a possibility he went on Apple maps, not knowing the route home, and selected the “directions” button. I’ve often done this on the past, and there are options for each mode of transport; walking, driving, public. Sometimes, you’ll click “directions” and it will assume you’re in a car, giving you a route that you can drive on. This obviously does not include walking routes - I think Jack may have made this mistake and walked to the bridge area, not realising he was given the driving-only route. He was looking at his phone I believe in one or two of the CCTV sightings. However, this would mean he was not familiar enough with the area to realise that this was obviously not the most convenient route…

JMO

Actually if Jack was planning to walk home there are only two direct routes from Hotwells over the New Cut of the Avon: Brunel Way, a southern extension of the Plimsoll Swing Bridge, and the Ashton Avenue Bridge. The latter used to be a two level bridge with the road on top and the railway crossing below. When the Plimsoll Swing Bridge opened, the road bridge was dismantled. and later the rail track was removed and the bridge became pedestrian only. In the last few years it has also been used as a Metrobus route, but unless you know the area VERY well - and I used to - you wouldn't even know it was there. The Metrobus goes to Long Aston Park & Ride, so maybe Jack and his family used it when they came into Bristol from Flax Bourton, but it's a very circuitous route..

But heading over the Swing Bridge is a perfectly logical way to head home once Jack had got to the Cumberland Basin.

Swing bridges

Swing bridges (bristol.gov.uk)

www.bristol.gov.uk

Jack went to Clifton College where I believe his mother was a matron and his father also worked. So he would have been very familiar with the road system, but not as a pedestrian maybe. It can be very confusing, especially when it is dark, and you are "tired and emotional". Jack was last spotted in an "unconfirmed" CCTV image walking up Bennett Way, which heads back towards the water. Why wasn't he seen after that? If you leave the bridge via the stairway at the top of Bennett Way to the right/west there are plenty of places you could jump/.fall in/be pushed in and your body might float on the tide downriver to the Severn Estuary.

Top of stairway: Street View · Google Maps

Bottom of stairway: Google Maps

A few points where the river is tidal:

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Of course there is the question of Jack's phone but we don't know what happened to it, or why that or any other possessions of Jack's haven't been found. If he headed up Granby Hill towards his brother's house or walked back towards the party on Hotwell Road why no further CCTV images of him?

 

[SimplyCass]

There is one theory I have, but it still doesn’t quite make sense. I have mentioned this before, but is there a possibility he went on Apple maps, not knowing the route home, and selected the “directions” button. I’ve often done this on the past, and there are options for each mode of transport; walking, driving, public. Sometimes, you’ll click “directions” and it will assume you’re in a car, giving you a route that you can drive on. This obviously does not include walking routes - I think Jack may have made this mistake and walked to the bridge area, not realising he was given the driving-only route. He was looking at his phone I believe in one or two of the CCTV sightings. However, this would mean he was not familiar enough with the area to realise that this was obviously not the most convenient route…

(RSBM) Is there anything in Apple Maps that one could accidentally trigger that would bring up a video (or something) and use a lot of data? I'm wondering if that's a possible explanation for the 'data spike' that they've mentioned.

Also, maybe a basic question, but why did Jack have his car keys on him? Where was his car? Did he think that he might be able to drive home afterwards?

 

[twomoresmores]

(RSBM) Is there anything in Apple Maps that one could accidentally trigger that would bring up a video (or something) and use a lot of data? I'm wondering if that's a possible explanation for the 'data spike' that they've mentioned.

Also, maybe a basic question, but why did Jack have his car keys on him? Where was his car? Did he think that he might be able to drive home afterwards?

I think there's the assumption that his house key was on the car key bunch. Though, if it was me, I would be taking a house key separately and not being unnecessarily taking car keys out with me.

 

[Centaurus]

Actually if Jack was planning to walk home there are only two direct routes from Hotwells over the New Cut of the Avon: Brunel Way, a southern extension of the Plimsoll Swing Bridge, and the Ashton Avenue Bridge. The latter used to be a two level bridge with the road on top and the railway crossing below. When the Plimsoll Swing Bridge opened, the road bridge was dismantled. and later the rail track was removed and the bridge became pedestrian only. In the last few years it has also been used as a Metrobus route, but unless you know the area VERY well - and I used to - you wouldn't even know it was there. The Metrobus goes to Long Aston Park & Ride, so maybe Jack and his family used it when they came into Bristol from Flax Bourton, but it's a very circuitous route..

But heading over the Swing Bridge is a perfectly logical way to head home once Jack had got to the Cumberland Basin.

Swing bridges

Swing bridges (bristol.gov.uk)

www.bristol.gov.uk

Jack went to Clifton College where I believe his mother was a matron and his father also worked. So he would have been very familiar with the road system, but not as a pedestrian maybe. It can be very confusing, especially when it is dark, and you are "tired and emotional". Jack was last spotted in an "unconfirmed" CCTV image walking up Bennett Way, which heads back towards the water. Why wasn't he seen after that? If you leave the bridge via the stairway at the top of Bennett Way to the right/west there are plenty of places you could jump/.fall in/be pushed in and your body might float on the tide downriver to the Severn Estuary.

Top of stairway: Street View · Google Maps

Bottom of stairway: Google Maps

A few points where the river is tidal:

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Of course there is the question of Jack's phone but we don't know what happened to it, or why that or any other possessions of Jack's haven't been found. If he headed up Granby Hill towards his brother's house or walked back towards the party on Hotwell Road why no further CCTV images of him?

After seeing case after case of people drinking and ending up in the water, I'm going with Occam's Razor and guessing he ended up in the water. It's a boring theory, but looking at the maps and seeing the waterways everywhere, that's the most simplest explanation and why his body hasn't been found.

 

[infohuntah]

After seeing case after case of people drinking and ending up in the water, I'm going with Occam's Razor and guessing he ended up in the water. It's a boring theory, but looking at the maps and seeing the waterways everywhere, that's the most simplest explanation and why his body hasn't been found.

Totally get that and it's a very plausible outcome. However, I personally hate when people say "occam's razor" (nothing against you personally). Occam's razor is simply a preference rule and says nothing about the truth, just simplicity and simplicity can be wrong and has been wrong in so many cases. It also ignores case-specific evidence and simply says: "young man near water. Drunk. Must have drowned". It's a heuristic but nothing more and can't justify ignoring evidence. All my 2 cents on occam's razor, again, nothing personal.

(RSBM) Is there anything in Apple Maps that one could accidentally trigger that would bring up a video (or something) and use a lot of data? I'm wondering if that's a possible explanation for the 'data spike' that they've mentioned.

Also, maybe a basic question, but why did Jack have his car keys on him? Where was his car? Did he think that he might be able to drive home afterwards?

The "data spike" allegedly happened at around 4:39am according to various news reports. Avon and Somerset Police say the last confirmed sighting of Jack was at 03:38 GMT walking down the Bennett Way slip road back in the direction of Bristol city centre. All this really proves is that the phone was extremely unlikely to be in water, or very, very shallow water at best.

Jack's mother saw Jack on "FindMy" at 5:40am and the phone didn't "go off" the network until 6:44am (likely due to the battery running flat). These 3 timestamps (to me) show that occam's razor doesn't apply here (and really, should only ever be used to structure a theory, not be the theory).

Reasoning:

1. a data "spike" occurred, it means the phone had access to data in the area. If the phone was underwater, all bets are off and this may not have occurred.
2. FindMy showed the phone was on land - NOT in water.
3. The phone didn't go off network until 6:44am, meaning the phone had at least a basic connection with a nearby radio tower.

There's more evidence to say the phone DID NOT go into water than did. And by extension, until we know otherwise, perhaps Jack didn't go into water either. Further evidence to support this is from what I posted on the previous page(s).

1. Jack navigated the cumberland basin himself. If he wanted to, he could have tripped/fell/jumped in at any given point. However, he was captured on CCTV several times walking around it and avoiding that.
2. Jack's last CCTV places him walking away from water, not towards it
3. Police divers, boats, sonar, helicopters, drones and coastguard searched the Avon from the cumberland basin out towards Avonmouth and upstream towards Temple Meads but found nothing - no body, no clothes, wallet, phone etc
4. Independent teams later searched again utilizing specialist dogs over the basin, portway and other areas without a hit
5. Available CCTV doesn't show an obvious point where Jack could have fell in, again, to point 1, he was walking away from the direction of water
6. Phone activity (in bullet points above) show a location of Granby Hill (or within a 100m radius) so we know at least the phone (and potentially Jack) aren't near water (and Granby Hill is actually near his brother's place. I'll post a new theory on this soon)

All of this makes a drowning very unlikely unless the phone was somehow removed from Jack and taken and used elsewhere. Of course, this doesn't exclude the fact that Jack could have took a detour off CCTV and still ended up in water, but given what we know, seems unlikely.

 

[twomoresmores]

What causes a data spike? I presume it's heavy and sudden data usage? For example, watching a video on Facebook, listening to music, taking/making a call, rapid texting back and forth?

 

[infohuntah]

What causes a data spike? I presume it's heavy and sudden data usage? For example, watching a video on Facebook, listening to music, taking/making a call, rapid texting back and forth?

Before I give my 2 cents, I'll say that there was so much speculation on social media because of the use of the phrase "data spike" and I think it was very misleading reporting by the media. The media began saying it was the equivalent of a 9 minute video, which would mean that the "spike" took place between 4.39-4.48am.

Personally, I think it throws us off the scent. Let's look at it deeper anyway just to get my point across. A 9 minute video at low-res could be 100mb. Standard res, maybe 200-300mb? Higher quality videos tend to be 300mb+.

Let's say for example, a friend back at the party sends a video via an app, that could cause a "spike" because Jack's phone automatically begins downloading it without any input from anyone. It could also be cloud uploads scheduled to upload at a specific time. It could be an automatic app update. Long story short, it could be any number of things. Without the phone, the only thing notable is the time it happened.

Which brings us back to 4:39am. The phone was more than likely on land and capable of sending/receiving data.

 

[infohuntah]

I re-visited some of the videos I watched about Jack's route home and read some more into Jack's mother's "verified" route and found one of the videos I watched a while ago, so here it is. In the video, the person re-tracing Jack's steps uses the spiral staircase at 1 min 34 into the video but not when he gets near Bennett Way. I don't think anyone knows conclusively (including Jack's mother) due to lack of CCTV showing the exact route. I think it's all "best effort" and guesses.

I've been thinking, "does it matter?" and I'm not sure whether it does. For the sake of accuracy it matters, but Jack was seen on CCTV after taking (or not taking) the spiral staircase, so I think it's "safe" to say that what matters most are the following events:

• 1.52am - texts his mother, telling her that he was getting an Uber and that he was safe.
• 2:50am (ish) - Jack trips down the stairs and hits his head. A partygoer pokes fun at him and he shoves him.
• 3:00am (ish) - Jack leaves the party
• 3.24am - Jack attempts to call female friend at the party
• 3:34am (approx) - Female friend returns the call, Jack says "hello" and the line stays open for 58 seconds, then cuts off. No more words were said. The friend said she was "confident" it was Jack who had answered
• 3:39am - Walking up Bennett Way
• 4:39am - Data spike (suggests phone was more likely to be on land)
• 5:40am - Jack’s Find my Phone app says he is at an address at Granby Hill in the Hotwells area, a few streets away from the party that he attended (also suggests phone was on land)
• 6:44am - Jack’s phone disconnects from the phone network.

I've got another post I'm planning to make, which is a deep dive into CCTV/iPhone. I'll try to get around to it today. In the meantime, I do wonder why at 1:52am, Jack felt the need to tell his mum he was "safe". That raises some red flags for me. Was this a regular thing? texting his mum when he's out to let her know he's safe? Or was he in some kind of danger?

 

[infohuntah]

For what it's worth, I wasn't happy with my previous research on Jack's last CCTV location at 3:39-3:40am. So I decided to be more specific.

Using what3words, I can say with a strong degree of certainty, Jack was on this spot when the CCTV captured him walking up Bennett Way.

Unfortunately, google maps cannot give the correct angle (CCTV under bridge) so I've tried to crudely point to the identifiable points on the CCTV to show where Jack was. For reference: Yellow arrow is Jack's direction walking up Bennett Way.

The red arrow below is the direction Jack is walking on the CCTV. For the eagle-eyed amongst us, you'll notice this presents a new problem no one has yet realized. In just a few steps after the CCTV, there are a number of steps to go down from Bennett Way and onto the Cumberland Plazza. If Jack did do this (or even if he didn't), at this point, he would go off CCTV completely (which is what happened).

From here, you're underneath the dual carriageway and approx 3 mins walk in a NW direction is....Granby Hill (location of the Find My). With Jack's brother living very near Granby Hill (which is openly available, public knowledge at this point), could Jack have been trying to get to his brother's house?

JMO.

 

[twomoresmores]

I re-visited some of the videos I watched about Jack's route home and read some more into Jack's mother's "verified" route and found one of the videos I watched a while ago, so here it is. In the video, the person re-tracing Jack's steps uses the spiral staircase at 1 min 34 into the video but not when he gets near Bennett Way. I don't think anyone knows conclusively (including Jack's mother) due to lack of CCTV showing the exact route. I think it's all "best effort" and guesses.

I've been thinking, "does it matter?" and I'm not sure whether it does. For the sake of accuracy it matters, but Jack was seen on CCTV after taking (or not taking) the spiral staircase, so I think it's "safe" to say that what matters most are the following events:

• 1.52am - texts his mother, telling her that he was getting an Uber and that he was safe.
• 2:50am (ish) - Jack trips down the stairs and hits his head. A partygoer pokes fun at him and he shoves him.
• 3:00am (ish) - Jack leaves the party
• 3.24am - Jack attempts to call female friend at the party
• 3:34am (approx) - Female friend returns the call, Jack says "hello" and the line stays open for 58 seconds, then cuts off. No more words were said. The friend said she was "confident" it was Jack who had answered
• 3:39am - Walking up Bennett Way
• 4:39am - Data spike (suggests phone was more likely to be on land)
• 5:40am - Jack’s Find my Phone app says he is at an address at Granby Hill in the Hotwells area, a few streets away from the party that he attended (also suggests phone was on land)
• 6:44am - Jack’s phone disconnects from the phone network.

I've got another post I'm planning to make, which is a deep dive into CCTV/iPhone. I'll try to get around to it today. In the meantime, I do wonder why at 1:52am, Jack felt the need to tell his mum he was "safe". That raises some red flags for me. Was this a regular thing? texting his mum when he's out to let her know he's safe? Or was he in some kind of danger?

I too am inclined to think the timings you provide are the relevant information rather than necessarily the exact route he took prior to the last CCTV sighting. I continue to find the friends phoning situation odd and I don't think I realised after he'd said Hello that the line had remained open for nearly a minute. Did the friend speak any further? Did this silence cause any alarm? Had something happened/been said/whatever at the party that meant it didn't cause concern. This situation was preceded by the ten minute interval between the two phone calls..... Which I've wondered about in a previous post. Surely this solitary Hello, the minutes silence followed by the line going dead would cause huge concern??
JMO.

 

[Normal Norm]

For what it's worth, I wasn't happy with my previous research on Jack's last CCTV location at 3:39-3:40am. So I decided to be more specific.

Using what3words, I can say with a strong degree of certainty, Jack was on this spot when the CCTV captured him walking up Bennett Way.

Unfortunately, google maps cannot give the correct angle (CCTV under bridge) so I've tried to crudely point to the identifiable points on the CCTV to show where Jack was. For reference: Yellow arrow is Jack's direction walking up Bennett Way.

View attachment 631939

The red arrow below is the direction Jack is walking on the CCTV. For the eagle-eyed amongst us, you'll notice this presents a new problem no one has yet realized. In just a few steps after the CCTV, there are a number of steps to go down from Bennett Way and onto the Cumberland Plazza. If Jack did do this (or even if he didn't), at this point, he would go off CCTV completely (which is what happened).

From here, you're underneath the dual carriageway and approx 3 mins walk in a NW direction is....Granby Hill (location of the Find My). With Jack's brother living very near Granby Hill (which is openly available, public knowledge at this point), could Jack have been trying to get to his brother's house?

JMO.

You've been on Google Earth / Streetview as much as I have! However ... my view is that Jack has already gone past the steps that you refer to in your analysis. Quite what the implications of that are, even if I am right, I don't know. Why do I think Jack has gone past the steps? In other words, why am I saying that Jack is not at the same point that you say he is?

The first part of my thinking hinges on the pole that you identify here (which I have labelled "A"):

I believe it is a traffic light pole on Cabot Way, around 66 metres up (i.e. to the east) of the road sign post that you identified. I have paid a lot of attention to the electric cable fixed to and then running underneath the bridge structure (see green line to the right of the actual cable) in coming to this conclusion. I have shown it below from two different angles:

Have look at a photo you provided in an earlier post, which I have place alongside my own version. "B" is the western edge of an advertising hoarding on the quayside in the distance. "C" is a thicker metal fence pole around 5 feet east of the traffic sign pole I have identified. The yellow line simply serves to line these two points up.

This is getting complicated, isn't it? Bear with me. I have taken the yellow line above, and transposed it onto an aerial view linking the advertising hoarding and the metal fence. Given that Jack is to the right of this in the picture above (i.e. around 12 feet to the west of it on the intermediate Bennett Way), I therefore place him at point D in the photo below. The light blue arrow shows the distance by which he has gone past the steps that you identified earlier.

I am not sure what this shows or proves. Possibly (if my analysis is correct, of course), it narrows down the possibilities for Jack's movement after the last CCTV sighting.

 

[infohuntah]

I too am inclined to think the timings you provide are the relevant information rather than necessarily the exact route he took prior to the last CCTV sighting. I continue to find the friends phoning situation odd and I don't think I realised after he'd said Hello that the line had remained open for nearly a minute. Did the friend speak any further? Did this silence cause any alarm? Had something happened/been said/whatever at the party that meant it didn't cause concern. This situation was preceded by the ten minute interval between the two phone calls..... Which I've wondered about in a previous post. Surely this solitary Hello, the minutes silence followed by the line going dead would cause huge concern??
JMO.

From what I've seen/heard/read, the line was silent after the "Hello", line was open for 58 seconds and then it went off. The friend didn't say more. Jack didn't say more. It just ended. Like you, I'd be quite alarmed if this happened, especially after Jack had fallen down stairs, banged his head, had an altercation and then left the party all within a short period of time, but no, that was it.

I may be adding 2+2 together and getting 5, but I do wonder yet again why Jack had said to his mother earlier in the night he "was safe". Could it just be a throwaway comment to make sure he's not worrying about him, or was there some kind of danger Jack was worrying about?

The fact Jack met 3 friends at the pub prior to this party, then none of the 3 really chase him up stinks (to me). I'm not blaming his friends but it really doesn't portray them in a good light.

You've been on Google Earth / Streetview as much as I have! However ... my view is that Jack has already gone past the steps that you refer to in your analysis. Quite what the implications of that are, even if I am right, I don't know. Why do I think Jack has gone past the steps? In other words, why am I saying that Jack is not at the same point that you say he is?

The first part of my thinking hinges on the pole that you identify here (which I have labelled "A"):

View attachment 631979

I believe it is a traffic light pole on Cabot Way, around 66 metres up (i.e. to the east) of the road sign post that you identified. I have paid a lot of attention to the electric cable fixed to and then running underneath the bridge structure (see green line to the right of the actual cable) in coming to this conclusion. I have shown it below from two different angles:

View attachment 631981View attachment 631988

Have look at a photo you provided in an earlier post, which I have place alongside my own version. "B" is the western edge of an advertising hoarding on the quayside in the distance. "C" is a thicker metal fence pole around 5 feet east of the traffic sign pole I have identified. The yellow line simply serves to line these two points up.

View attachment 631993View attachment 631995

This is getting complicated, isn't it? Bear with me. I have taken the yellow line above, and transposed it onto an aerial view linking the advertising hoarding and the metal fence. Given that Jack is to the right of this in the picture above (i.e. around 12 feet to the west of it on the intermediate Bennett Way), I therefore place him at point D in the photo below. The light blue arrow shows the distance by which he has gone past the steps that you identified earlier.

View attachment 631996

I am not sure what this shows or proves. Possibly (if my analysis is correct, of course), it narrows down the possibilities for Jack's movement after the last CCTV sighting.

This is amazing. Thanks for posting this. You might be right. This is extremely difficult to work out because the camera is underneath the road/bridge and I couldn't ever get the right angle / line of sight. After I posted my analysis I did keep looking back at the lamp post pole thinking it doesn't 100% match the one in the CCTV image, but then I was wondering whether the lighting was playing tricks on me.

I think it does matter (a little) that Jack was approx 66 meters further along than where I initially placed him, because it means that he didn't go down the steps I mentioned in my previous post. That's...good? I think? It certainly means he was sticking to the roads and not going too far down the lesser used avenues.

And this is where I think (at least in my mind's eye) it confirms somewhat where he was headed. I think more than likely, he wasn't going back to where the party began, but he was heading to his brother's place. I'll try my best to explain this briefly.

I've taken it upon myself to look at the councils CCTV in Bristol and I've been studying it for some time. Anyone can view the CCTV here since the council kindly displays it on a nice map.

So I began thinking about this (it gets more complicated, but bear with me). Jack was on CCTV going back up Bennett Way and wasn't seen going back down Bennett Way. Now we know he went past the Cumberland Piazza (steps) I mentioned in my previous post, that essentially brings him back onto the Plimsoll Bridge.

This is where I really began studying both google maps, known CCTV and the Bristol CCTV map. I feel like I've got something (maybe? possibly?).

If we're on the right trajectory and Jack is indeed heading back up, I believe his path would have looked like this:

I'll explain my reasoning from scratch.There's CCTV where Jack went over the Plimsoll Bridge (bottom red X). Plus there's 2x official council CCTV positions near Smeaton Road. For Jack to go back that way.... I'm going to say at least 1 of those 3 CCTV camera would have captured him, so for me...no. I give that a red X which means he likely didn't go that way.

Bennett Way. The other red X in the top left. CCTV didn't show him walking back down that way, so that gets a red X. I think we're all happy to go with the idea that he continued up Bennett Way.

The Orange X's. When Jack reaches the top of Bennett Way, he's got a choice to make here. He can go back down Cumberland Basin Road a 2nd time (which is highly illogical and I highly doubt he did this based on his route so far) or he could potentially cross over on the dual carriageway and attempt to go on Cumerland Basin Road (Eastbound) which seems also quite unlikely based on the loop he just did.

Which leaves...northbound. If he goes north, which is what I'm thinking, this takes him on Bristol Gate. And here's where things get very interesting indeed. I decided to look at the camera situation because the council map says that there's CCTV (marked with the blue #1 on the map). And, there is! But, he's the kicker. The CCTV is also pointing north, so it wouldn't capture Jack if he had approached from the south (I hope this is making sense).

The image above is Bristol Gate. The pole on top of the light is the CCTV, which faces north (towards the green trees in the back of the photo). Additionally, the pub on the right has its own CCTV, which appears to cover a decent amount of the right-hand side (if you approach from the south).

(CCTV is to the left of the window with the blue paint, but to the right of the door with the white paint). So I'm concluding it's likely Jack didn't continue on Bristol Gate, because it seems somewhat likely that 1 of the 2 CCTV cameras here would have picked him up.

However. If we return to my "possible route", there is a way he can get to Granby Hill (marked with the blue #2 on the map) and evade all cameras. Here's the picture I posted above (again. Sorry but it's easier for me to re-post it).

Let's say Jack is at the top of Bennett Way. If he doesn't go back down Bennett Way, doesn't go back on the Plimsoll, doesn't cross the Plimsoll and go to Cumberland Basin Road (eastbound), that means he goes on Bristol Gate (northbound). But it also means he doesn't go "too far" northbound because he'd potentially be on CCTV then (blue #1 on the map).

However, if you turn left before you hit the CCTV on Bristol Gate, you can get to Granby Hill (blue #2 on the map) without any CCTV capturing you. And what's more, I went on google street view and individually looked at every single residence Jack passes. No-one has any doorbell camera pointing towards the A4/Hotwell Road. So not only would Jack not be picked up on council CCTV, but he wouldn't be picked up on resident doorbell cameras either.

This (to me) would explain where he was headed (his brother's place) and why CCTV didn't pick him up, and why the phone find my app placed him on Granby Hill.

My objective opinion as always. Looking forward to thoughts.

 

[infohuntah]

After some careful consideration, I think this is where I will have to dip out of this case. I have a theory but unfortunately it will go against the forum rules, so I cannot post it.

What I can say, however, is that on an iPhone 11 (which Jack had) and other iPhones, unless you specifically set up the phone to not allow it, even when the phone is locked, someone can swipe without knowing the passcode and turn the data connection off. This is default behavior and due to the convenience of it, people generally leave this as-is.

The next statement is from an interview by The Times newspaper which confirms "he [Jack] was still receiving WhatsApp messages until 5.40am and his phone was still on the network until 6.44am." (The Times).

 

[Normal Norm]

This is amazing. Thanks for posting this. You might be right. This is extremely difficult to work out because the camera is underneath the road/bridge and I couldn't ever get the right angle / line of sight. After I posted my analysis I did keep looking back at the lamp post pole thinking it doesn't 100% match the one in the CCTV image, but then I was wondering whether the lighting was playing tricks on me.

Above post edited by me for focus.

Thank you! I totally agree about the positioning of the camera and the difficulty in getting the right angle / line of sight!

View attachment 632013

And here's where things get very interesting indeed. I decided to look at the camera situation because the council map says that there's CCTV (marked with the blue #1 on the map). And, there is! But, he's the kicker. The CCTV is also pointing north, so it wouldn't capture Jack if he had approached from the south (I hope this is making sense).

View attachment 632012

The image above is Bristol Gate. The pole on top of the light is the CCTV, which faces north (towards the green trees in the back of the photo). Additionally, the pub on the right has its own CCTV, which appears to cover a decent amount of the right-hand side (if you approach from the south).

Let's say Jack is at the top of Bennett Way. If he doesn't go back down Bennett Way, doesn't go back on the Plimsoll, doesn't cross the Plimsoll and go to Cumberland Basin Road (eastbound), that means he goes on Bristol Gate (northbound). But it also means he doesn't go "too far" northbound because he'd potentially be on CCTV then (blue #1 on the map).

However, if you turn left before you hit the CCTV on Bristol Gate, you can get to Granby Hill (blue #2 on the map) without any CCTV capturing you. And what's more, I went on google street view and individually looked at every single residence Jack passes. No-one has any doorbell camera pointing towards the A4/Hotwell Road. So not only would Jack not be picked up on council CCTV, but he wouldn't be picked up on resident doorbell cameras either.

This (to me) would explain where he was headed (his brother's place) and why CCTV didn't pick him up, and why the phone find my app placed him on Granby Hill.

My objective opinion as always. Looking forward to thoughts.

View attachment 632013

I'm not convinced that the CCTV camera at #1 only points north. I suspect it rotates (though whether that is on a time basis, or is activated by movement or is operator-controlled, I don't know). I believe it is the same camera that captured the last known image of Jack, which means it was facing south-west at that particular point in time (i.e. along the yellow line on my aerial shot in my previous post). So for me, there is a fair possibility (but not a certainty) that he would have been picked up by that camera had he walked north / northeastwards on Bristol Gate towards it.

For me, then, that leaves just a couple of options, which I have shown on the map below. He may have taken the route I have shown in blue, ending up on Humphry Davy Way and who knows where after that. Or he could have come down from the Plimsoll Bridge using the spiral staircases I have shown in orange, and then continued in at least 3 ways at "ground level" as shown by the orange dots. If we make the assumption that the location of Jack's phone on Granby Hill is accurate and not a complete red herring (and I am undecided on this, I have to say), then we can see the route you would expect him to take (A).

However ... whether he crosses Bennett Way / Cabot Way at ground level or on the footbridge over the roads, he is likely to be picked up by the CCTV camera at the Rose of Denmark junction which has a clear line of sight as shown by the yellow line and in the Google Streetview screen shot below. Of course, this is all dependent on whether and how the CCTV camera moves, and it may be that he has managed to get to Granby Hill without being detected by the camera.

There are so many ifs and buts and possibilities. What does concern me, certainly, is that if Jack has crossed onto the "island" (route B) or has continued onto Hotwell Road (C), then he is in proximity to the open water of the River Avon rather than the contained water of the harbour.

 

[infohuntah]

I'm not convinced that the CCTV camera at #1 only points north. I suspect it rotates (though whether that is on a time basis, or is activated by movement or is operator-controlled, I don't know). I believe it is the same camera that captured the last known image of Jack, which means it was facing south-west at that particular point in time (i.e. along the yellow line on my aerial shot in my previous post). So for me, there is a fair possibility (but not a certainty) that he would have been picked up by that camera had he walked north / northeastwards on Bristol Gate towards it.

I don't think it's the same camera (without being in Bristol and able to go and verify it, I also can't be 100% sure) however, the camera looks fixed to me. The giveaway is the spherical black housing mounted on a fixed bracket. PTZ cameras are normally thicker.

That being said, we might both be off here and we could be looking at a infrared emergency vehicle priority detector, more commonly known as an Opticom type sensor. In other words, I don't think this is a CCTV camera (at least, not the one on the Bristol Council map).

Either way, I don't think it changes what I think happened here. From the data we know for sure, I believe Jack was heading towards Granby Hill. (objective opinion as always).

 

[twomoresmores]

I recall mention of last roughly known location of Jack's phone was around an electricity substation. Presumably this was a locked location?

 

[infohuntah]

I recall mention of last roughly known location of Jack's phone was around an electricity substation. Presumably this was a locked location?

Yes, a locked location. Police told the family it was locked and there was no reasonable way to enter, and so they didn't search it. Jack's parents searched it (with the staff from the electric substation company) and found nothing.

 

[Innotts]

I seem to remember there was a potential CCTV sighting at around 5.40am around Hotwell Road by the River Avon, back in the very early days but I can’t recall what happened with it, could it just not be confirmed? This is also the time Jack’s Find my Phone app says he is at an address at Granby Hill in the Hotwells area and his phone is receiving WhatsApp messages, so I was curious.

 

[skepticsouth]

How many deaths occur in England, regarding canals and towpaths? I have noticed they have become more common, compared to 20 years ago.