UK UK - Jack O'Sullivan, 22, left friends after night out, last seen Brunel Lock Road/Brunel Way, Bristol at 3.15am, 2 Mar 2024

[Bahshudc]

THANK YOU @infohuntah !!! I’ve been thinking this for a long time. In his last sighting, he was NOT near enough to a body of water to accidentally fall in.

My partner was born and raised in Bristol. Those who are from there know that area very well - it’s not super central, but you certainly drive through that area on the main road beside the swing bridge often. My partner is quite insistent that anybody who is from Bristol is familiar with the swing bridge and that area of town.

This is why the loops / going back on himself, in fact the entire route itself, is so perplexing to me. Nobody in their right mind would take that route unless:

a. they didn’t know the area & got lost / thought that would be the best route.

b. they were planning to be in that location.

If he was going home, the simplest route would avoid the swing bridge area altogether. This is the same for his brother’s house, or in an attempt to get a taxi. There is not a single reason, that I can think of at least, as to why he chose that route, or went near to the water at all (unless this was perhaps a suicide situation.)

There is one theory I have, but it still doesn’t quite make sense. I have mentioned this before, but is there a possibility he went on Apple maps, not knowing the route home, and selected the “directions” button. I’ve often done this on the past, and there are options for each mode of transport; walking, driving, public. Sometimes, you’ll click “directions” and it will assume you’re in a car, giving you a route that you can drive on. This obviously does not include walking routes - I think Jack may have made this mistake and walked to the bridge area, not realising he was given the driving-only route. He was looking at his phone I believe in one or two of the CCTV sightings. However, this would mean he was not familiar enough with the area to realise that this was obviously not the most convenient route…

JMO

 

[SteveH]

THANK YOU @infohuntah !!! I’ve been thinking this for a long time. In his last sighting, he was NOT near enough to a body of water to accidentally fall in.

My partner was born and raised in Bristol. Those who are from there know that area very well - it’s not super central, but you certainly drive through that area on the main road beside the swing bridge often. My partner is quite insistent that anybody who is from Bristol is familiar with the swing bridge and that area of town.

This is why the loops / going back on himself, in fact the entire route itself, is so perplexing to me. Nobody in their right mind would take that route unless:

a. they didn’t know the area & got lost / thought that would be the best route.

b. they were planning to be in that location.

If he was going home, the simplest route would avoid the swing bridge area altogether. This is the same for his brother’s house, or in an attempt to get a taxi. There is not a single reason, that I can think of at least, as to why he chose that route, or went near to the water at all (unless this was perhaps a suicide situation.)

There is one theory I have, but it still doesn’t quite make sense. I have mentioned this before, but is there a possibility he went on Apple maps, not knowing the route home, and selected the “directions” button. I’ve often done this on the past, and there are options for each mode of transport; walking, driving, public. Sometimes, you’ll click “directions” and it will assume you’re in a car, giving you a route that you can drive on. This obviously does not include walking routes - I think Jack may have made this mistake and walked to the bridge area, not realising he was given the driving-only route. He was looking at his phone I believe in one or two of the CCTV sightings. However, this would mean he was not familiar enough with the area to realise that this was obviously not the most convenient route…

JMO

Actually if Jack was planning to walk home there are only two direct routes from Hotwells over the New Cut of the Avon: Brunel Way, a southern extension of the Plimsoll Swing Bridge, and the Ashton Avenue Bridge. The latter used to be a two level bridge with the road on top and the railway crossing below. When the Plimsoll Swing Bridge opened, the road bridge was dismantled. and later the rail track was removed and the bridge became pedestrian only. In the last few years it has also been used as a Metrobus route, but unless you know the area VERY well - and I used to - you wouldn't even know it was there. The Metrobus goes to Long Aston Park & Ride, so maybe Jack and his family used it when they came into Bristol from Flax Bourton, but it's a very circuitous route..

But heading over the Swing Bridge is a perfectly logical way to head home once Jack had got to the Cumberland Basin.

Swing bridges

Swing bridges (bristol.gov.uk)

www.bristol.gov.uk

Jack went to Clifton College where I believe his mother was a matron and his father also worked. So he would have been very familiar with the road system, but not as a pedestrian maybe. It can be very confusing, especially when it is dark, and you are "tired and emotional". Jack was last spotted in an "unconfirmed" CCTV image walking up Bennett Way, which heads back towards the water. Why wasn't he seen after that? If you leave the bridge via the stairway at the top of Bennett Way to the right/west there are plenty of places you could jump/.fall in/be pushed in and your body might float on the tide downriver to the Severn Estuary.

Top of stairway: Street View · Google Maps

Bottom of stairway: Google Maps

A few points where the river is tidal:

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Of course there is the question of Jack's phone but we don't know what happened to it, or why that or any other possessions of Jack's haven't been found. If he headed up Granby Hill towards his brother's house or walked back towards the party on Hotwell Road why no further CCTV images of him?

 

[SimplyCass]

There is one theory I have, but it still doesn’t quite make sense. I have mentioned this before, but is there a possibility he went on Apple maps, not knowing the route home, and selected the “directions” button. I’ve often done this on the past, and there are options for each mode of transport; walking, driving, public. Sometimes, you’ll click “directions” and it will assume you’re in a car, giving you a route that you can drive on. This obviously does not include walking routes - I think Jack may have made this mistake and walked to the bridge area, not realising he was given the driving-only route. He was looking at his phone I believe in one or two of the CCTV sightings. However, this would mean he was not familiar enough with the area to realise that this was obviously not the most convenient route…

(RSBM) Is there anything in Apple Maps that one could accidentally trigger that would bring up a video (or something) and use a lot of data? I'm wondering if that's a possible explanation for the 'data spike' that they've mentioned.

Also, maybe a basic question, but why did Jack have his car keys on him? Where was his car? Did he think that he might be able to drive home afterwards?

 

[twomoresmores]

(RSBM) Is there anything in Apple Maps that one could accidentally trigger that would bring up a video (or something) and use a lot of data? I'm wondering if that's a possible explanation for the 'data spike' that they've mentioned.

Also, maybe a basic question, but why did Jack have his car keys on him? Where was his car? Did he think that he might be able to drive home afterwards?

I think there's the assumption that his house key was on the car key bunch. Though, if it was me, I would be taking a house key separately and not being unnecessarily taking car keys out with me.

 

[Centaurus]

Actually if Jack was planning to walk home there are only two direct routes from Hotwells over the New Cut of the Avon: Brunel Way, a southern extension of the Plimsoll Swing Bridge, and the Ashton Avenue Bridge. The latter used to be a two level bridge with the road on top and the railway crossing below. When the Plimsoll Swing Bridge opened, the road bridge was dismantled. and later the rail track was removed and the bridge became pedestrian only. In the last few years it has also been used as a Metrobus route, but unless you know the area VERY well - and I used to - you wouldn't even know it was there. The Metrobus goes to Long Aston Park & Ride, so maybe Jack and his family used it when they came into Bristol from Flax Bourton, but it's a very circuitous route..

But heading over the Swing Bridge is a perfectly logical way to head home once Jack had got to the Cumberland Basin.

Swing bridges

Swing bridges (bristol.gov.uk)

www.bristol.gov.uk

Jack went to Clifton College where I believe his mother was a matron and his father also worked. So he would have been very familiar with the road system, but not as a pedestrian maybe. It can be very confusing, especially when it is dark, and you are "tired and emotional". Jack was last spotted in an "unconfirmed" CCTV image walking up Bennett Way, which heads back towards the water. Why wasn't he seen after that? If you leave the bridge via the stairway at the top of Bennett Way to the right/west there are plenty of places you could jump/.fall in/be pushed in and your body might float on the tide downriver to the Severn Estuary.

Top of stairway: Street View · Google Maps

Bottom of stairway: Google Maps

A few points where the river is tidal:

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Google Maps

Explore a place through a 360° photo.

maps.app.goo.gl

Of course there is the question of Jack's phone but we don't know what happened to it, or why that or any other possessions of Jack's haven't been found. If he headed up Granby Hill towards his brother's house or walked back towards the party on Hotwell Road why no further CCTV images of him?

After seeing case after case of people drinking and ending up in the water, I'm going with Occam's Razor and guessing he ended up in the water. It's a boring theory, but looking at the maps and seeing the waterways everywhere, that's the most simplest explanation and why his body hasn't been found.

 

[infohuntah]

After seeing case after case of people drinking and ending up in the water, I'm going with Occam's Razor and guessing he ended up in the water. It's a boring theory, but looking at the maps and seeing the waterways everywhere, that's the most simplest explanation and why his body hasn't been found.

Totally get that and it's a very plausible outcome. However, I personally hate when people say "occam's razor" (nothing against you personally). Occam's razor is simply a preference rule and says nothing about the truth, just simplicity and simplicity can be wrong and has been wrong in so many cases. It also ignores case-specific evidence and simply says: "young man near water. Drunk. Must have drowned". It's a heuristic but nothing more and can't justify ignoring evidence. All my 2 cents on occam's razor, again, nothing personal.

(RSBM) Is there anything in Apple Maps that one could accidentally trigger that would bring up a video (or something) and use a lot of data? I'm wondering if that's a possible explanation for the 'data spike' that they've mentioned.

Also, maybe a basic question, but why did Jack have his car keys on him? Where was his car? Did he think that he might be able to drive home afterwards?

The "data spike" allegedly happened at around 4:39am according to various news reports. Avon and Somerset Police say the last confirmed sighting of Jack was at 03:38 GMT walking down the Bennett Way slip road back in the direction of Bristol city centre. All this really proves is that the phone was extremely unlikely to be in water, or very, very shallow water at best.

Jack's mother saw Jack on "FindMy" at 5:40am and the phone didn't "go off" the network until 6:44am (likely due to the battery running flat). These 3 timestamps (to me) show that occam's razor doesn't apply here (and really, should only ever be used to structure a theory, not be the theory).

Reasoning:

1. a data "spike" occurred, it means the phone had access to data in the area. If the phone was underwater, all bets are off and this may not have occurred.
2. FindMy showed the phone was on land - NOT in water.
3. The phone didn't go off network until 6:44am, meaning the phone had at least a basic connection with a nearby radio tower.

There's more evidence to say the phone DID NOT go into water than did. And by extension, until we know otherwise, perhaps Jack didn't go into water either. Further evidence to support this is from what I posted on the previous page(s).

1. Jack navigated the cumberland basin himself. If he wanted to, he could have tripped/fell/jumped in at any given point. However, he was captured on CCTV several times walking around it and avoiding that.
2. Jack's last CCTV places him walking away from water, not towards it
3. Police divers, boats, sonar, helicopters, drones and coastguard searched the Avon from the cumberland basin out towards Avonmouth and upstream towards Temple Meads but found nothing - no body, no clothes, wallet, phone etc
4. Independent teams later searched again utilizing specialist dogs over the basin, portway and other areas without a hit
5. Available CCTV doesn't show an obvious point where Jack could have fell in, again, to point 1, he was walking away from the direction of water
6. Phone activity (in bullet points above) show a location of Granby Hill (or within a 100m radius) so we know at least the phone (and potentially Jack) aren't near water (and Granby Hill is actually near his brother's place. I'll post a new theory on this soon)

All of this makes a drowning very unlikely unless the phone was somehow removed from Jack and taken and used elsewhere. Of course, this doesn't exclude the fact that Jack could have took a detour off CCTV and still ended up in water, but given what we know, seems unlikely.

 

[twomoresmores]

What causes a data spike? I presume it's heavy and sudden data usage? For example, watching a video on Facebook, listening to music, taking/making a call, rapid texting back and forth?

 

[infohuntah]

What causes a data spike? I presume it's heavy and sudden data usage? For example, watching a video on Facebook, listening to music, taking/making a call, rapid texting back and forth?

Before I give my 2 cents, I'll say that there was so much speculation on social media because of the use of the phrase "data spike" and I think it was very misleading reporting by the media. The media began saying it was the equivalent of a 9 minute video, which would mean that the "spike" took place between 4.39-4.48am.

Personally, I think it throws us off the scent. Let's look at it deeper anyway just to get my point across. A 9 minute video at low-res could be 100mb. Standard res, maybe 200-300mb? Higher quality videos tend to be 300mb+.

Let's say for example, a friend back at the party sends a video via an app, that could cause a "spike" because Jack's phone automatically begins downloading it without any input from anyone. It could also be cloud uploads scheduled to upload at a specific time. It could be an automatic app update. Long story short, it could be any number of things. Without the phone, the only thing notable is the time it happened.

Which brings us back to 4:39am. The phone was more than likely on land and capable of sending/receiving data.

 

[infohuntah]

I re-visited some of the videos I watched about Jack's route home and read some more into Jack's mother's "verified" route and found one of the videos I watched a while ago, so here it is. In the video, the person re-tracing Jack's steps uses the spiral staircase at 1 min 34 into the video but not when he gets near Bennett Way. I don't think anyone knows conclusively (including Jack's mother) due to lack of CCTV showing the exact route. I think it's all "best effort" and guesses.

I've been thinking, "does it matter?" and I'm not sure whether it does. For the sake of accuracy it matters, but Jack was seen on CCTV after taking (or not taking) the spiral staircase, so I think it's "safe" to say that what matters most are the following events:

• 1.52am - texts his mother, telling her that he was getting an Uber and that he was safe.
• 2:50am (ish) - Jack trips down the stairs and hits his head. A partygoer pokes fun at him and he shoves him.
• 3:00am (ish) - Jack leaves the party
• 3.24am - Jack attempts to call female friend at the party
• 3:34am (approx) - Female friend returns the call, Jack says "hello" and the line stays open for 58 seconds, then cuts off. No more words were said. The friend said she was "confident" it was Jack who had answered
• 3:39am - Walking up Bennett Way
• 4:39am - Data spike (suggests phone was more likely to be on land)
• 5:40am - Jack’s Find my Phone app says he is at an address at Granby Hill in the Hotwells area, a few streets away from the party that he attended (also suggests phone was on land)
• 6:44am - Jack’s phone disconnects from the phone network.

I've got another post I'm planning to make, which is a deep dive into CCTV/iPhone. I'll try to get around to it today. In the meantime, I do wonder why at 1:52am, Jack felt the need to tell his mum he was "safe". That raises some red flags for me. Was this a regular thing? texting his mum when he's out to let her know he's safe? Or was he in some kind of danger?

 

[infohuntah]

For what it's worth, I wasn't happy with my previous research on Jack's last CCTV location at 3:39-3:40am. So I decided to be more specific.

Using what3words, I can say with a strong degree of certainty, Jack was on this spot when the CCTV captured him walking up Bennett Way.

Unfortunately, google maps cannot give the correct angle (CCTV under bridge) so I've tried to crudely point to the identifiable points on the CCTV to show where Jack was. For reference: Yellow arrow is Jack's direction walking up Bennett Way.

The red arrow below is the direction Jack is walking on the CCTV. For the eagle-eyed amongst us, you'll notice this presents a new problem no one has yet realized. In just a few steps after the CCTV, there are a number of steps to go down from Bennett Way and onto the Cumberland Plazza. If Jack did do this (or even if he didn't), at this point, he would go off CCTV completely (which is what happened).

From here, you're underneath the dual carriageway and approx 3 mins walk in a NW direction is....Granby Hill (location of the Find My). With Jack's brother living very near Granby Hill (which is openly available, public knowledge at this point), could Jack have been trying to get to his brother's house?

JMO.