UK - Libby Squire, 21, last seen outside Welly club, Hull, 31 Jan 2019 *ARREST* #18

[JosieJo]

Sorry for the rambling but the timings are very much bothering me..
Trying to work out best scenario to fit prosecution case

If she got away from him in the park and she ran from him a distance of the way (unlikely in snow though) so both were running part of the way ...then she was attacked much nearer the river than the scream witness thought...then he put her in river and ran back

2.5 minutes to get near river
2 minutes to rape and kill
1 min

So if he didn't how did it happen?


But he was running away from the river when seen and the prosecution calculated that as faster. He was reportedly fit and quite strong and she was very vulnerable and quite slender. I can see any other explanation that suits the evidence

Yes obviously he would run back ...but getting her struggling into the park and the attack itself would take longer than average walking speed also

I think another potential explanation is he raped her and just left her and ran ...disoriented and confused she got up and ran the opposite direction to him and ended up falling into the water ...photos show there are some areas near the boathouse with a direct drop into the river with no reeds etc

Him attacking her and running away fits far more comfortably with the timescale and with the post mortem being inconclusive doesn't help

I hope we get more clarity ...either way he is responsible for her death in a horrendous way

 

[Newthoughts]

@Sooty the doubt is a major concern. If the majority of us on here are questioning the times then it's likely the jury will too.

I'm not actually sure why people are questioning it tho - because events and evidence say it happened.

It definitely is a possibility. Post mortem is casting doubts on death by drowning or hypothermia though...that is the main reason why we are looking for alternative explanations. Hopefully we will get more details as we go.

It's not really casting doubts it's using scientific language to say they cannot be absolutely ruled out. When an expert says this is the most probable cause in my opinion - that's the opinion to accept.

Good point. Although I’m thinking of she was screaming in the river they’d be an indication of water in her lungs although I’m not 100% sure if that would happen.

Yes there would be typical signs of drowning.

 

[JosieJo]

Sorry for the rambling but the timings are very much bothering me..
Trying to work out best scenario to fit prosecution case

If she got away from him in the park and she ran from him a distance of the way (unlikely in snow though) so both were running part of the way ...then she was attacked much nearer the river than the scream witness thought...then he put her in river and ran back

2.5 minutes to get near river
2 minutes to rape and kill
1 min

So if he didn't how did it happen?


But he was running away from the river when seen and the prosecution calculated that as faster. He was reportedly fit and quite strong and she was very vulnerable and quite slender. I can see any other explanation that suits the evidence

Yes obviously he would run back ...but getting her struggling into the park and the attack itself would take longer than average walking speed also

I think another potential explanation is he raped her and just left her and ran ...disoriented and confused she got up and ran the opposite direction to him and ended up falling into the water ...photos show there are some areas near the boathouse with a direct drop into the river with no reeds etc

Him attacking her and running away fits far more comfortably with the timescale and with the post mortem being inconclusive doesn't help

I hope we get more clarity ...either way he is responsible for her death in a horrendous way

Further to my last comment - I am thinking the fact that he returned to, one can assume, the scene/ where he left her and the time frame was 4 minutes - to go there and back to the car - it could be reasonable to assume on that 3rd occasion he took under 2 minutes to get to the ‘spot’ and under 2 minutes to get back to the car.

Again, it would have been dark etc which does hinder somewhat.

If it can be proved that the attack took place in the park (maybe this taking a wee has something to do with this too) then I think they are looking at it happening under 2 minutes into the park. It’s a better fit with the timings of 7 and a half minutes - it just seems to make more sense. There has to be a reason for this 3rd visit to the park. Hopefully he will give us some clues in his testimony.

unfortunately, it suggests that he did not put her in the river.

edited by me for clarity

Totally agree at the minute

 

[DiploRed]

I’m definitely no expert but I reckon she was pretty aware of what was happening when she was in his car and approached playing fields entrance. I’m sure here adrenaline kicks in and fight or flight starts which gets the blood flowing. Plus, there are signs she fought back which I wouldn’t say is typical of a person who is completely out of it and about to freeze to death any minute. So he either suffocates her or something like that or he throws her in the river while she’s still alive. I find it highly unlikely that she entered the river by herself. I’m sure some of these things will be explained better in court by actual experts but I don’t think there is as much doubt as people think but admittedly there is no “smoking gun” regarding the accusation of murder

 

[PitchforkRed]

My opinion - and it's only an opinion - is that he really didn't expect evidence on Libby to be found and had been getting away with leaving DNA calling cards for years.

He probably didn't think a used condom would be picked up. In normal circumstances it wouldn't. Tho why he used it is a mystery.

He clearly has some forensic nous - his explanation for his semen on the students door is that he wee'd there after having sex with his wife is ingenious. Its interesting that he claimed to have had a wee in the park and well so I wonder was he expecting something similar there?

I guess he doesn't know much about anatomy and assumed all evidence of the rape would be removed by the water.

But it is all really weird.

Yes, good point, I've lived in areas like that and seeing condoms on the floor isn't uncommon, unfortunately. He does seem to make a lot of off-the-cuff decisions but is also quite savvy and calculating in a lot of ways; the drone flying over the playing fields before his arrest I thought was cold and clever. I imagine he was checking for signs of the body and/or monitoring the police activity. Seems the sort of person who, in the days before drones, would have skirted the crime scene in person afterwards.

I think he definitely put her in the river himself rather than Libby fleeing and falling. I think the actual rape would have been very quick, and he killed her in the process of trying to subdue her during it, either intentionally or accidentally. There was evidence of him all over her. He must have either had a lot of confidence that the tide would take her out to sea that night (or at least, that was his only viable means of disposal at the time). I wonder if he weighed up the option (if she was dead or unconscious) of carrying her back to the car and disposing of her some other way. He may have been concerned that Libby's screams may have caused someone to call the police, so knowing time was limited, the best option was the river.

His ego/confidence must have been so inflated the longer the search for the body went on. I hope the jury will be shown the video of his reaction when they informed him in questioning that Libby had been found, so they can see if this contrasts with his passiveness in court.

 

[JosieJo]

A few more thoughts..

Athe moment what is being Quoted is only the prosecution speech on cause of death ...of course their wording will be to fit with their case
We have not actually heard from the pathologist yet

Will there be any Internet searches around death, bodies and water ? That would show he knew she was dead ..so far only mention of after the event

 

[JosieJo]

Sorry another thought...could the yeast factory cctv only have picked up car lights arriving and leaving across the park?

 

[Alyce]

Does anyone remember where in Oak Park playing fields the police focussed their search on a particular bench? I've tried finding it via a Google search but no success.

Stumpy, have a look at this map. You have to scroll out but if you follow the path just to the right of the car park area and heading upwards towards the River Hull, you can see a bench, about half way along the path. Approx 150 metres if you take the start point as Oak Road ( where the blue line stops ! ).

Google Maps


just editing to add that I do not know if this is the bench - I am just assuming it could be, because it's on that direct path from where he parked to the river.

 

[Newthoughts]

Yes, good point, I've lived in areas like that and seeing condoms on the floor isn't uncommon, unfortunately. He does seem to make a lot of off-the-cuff decisions but is also quite savvy and calculating in a lot of ways; the drone flying over the playing fields before his arrest I thought was cold and clever. I imagine he was checking for signs of the body and/or monitoring the police activity. Seems the sort of person who, in the days before drones, would have skirted the crime scene in person afterwards.

I think he definitely put her in the river himself rather than Libby fleeing and falling. I think the actual rape would have been very quick, and he killed her in the process of trying to subdue her during it, either intentionally or accidentally. There was evidence of him all over her. He must have either had a lot of confidence that the tide would take her out to sea that night (or at least, that was his only viable means of disposal at the time). I wonder if he weighed up the option (if she was dead or unconscious) of carrying her back to the car and disposing of her some other way. He may have been concerned that Libby's screams may have caused someone to call the police, so knowing time was limited, the best option was the river.

His ego/confidence must have been so inflated the longer the search for the body went on. I hope the jury will be shown the video of his reaction when they informed him in questioning that Libby had been found, so they can see if this contrasts with his passiveness in court.

I think I agree with you on every point. He visited the park earlier that freezing cold night and I'd love to know how many other nights or days he'd spent there. He clearly knew it. And I'd love to know what else was on his drone but.he clearly knew to fly it over the river.

He was prowling round the student zone long before she'd even left to go out. He had a book of student accommodation at home to help him. And yet he didn't bother to wear a condom for what even he must have known was going to be taken far more seriously than his usual crimes? He's not that dumb. Planned to prowl but forgot his condoms? I don't buy it

I cannot see any scenario where she suddenly stops screaming completely, he then starts to run away and she gets up to run towards a river without more screaming (in that heightened state every bit of hedge or twig would make you scream I think).

She becomes utterly silent and not picked up by any CCTV on her way whilst he is unlucky enough to be not only picked up by CCTV but also a witness.

 

[Newthoughts]

Sorry another thought...could the yeast factory cctv only have picked up car lights arriving and leaving across the park?

No it says it picked up him and Libby arriving but only him leaving. I'm still confused as to where exactly it picked them up

 

[JosieJo]

I think I agree with you on every point. He visited the park earlier that freezing cold night and I'd love to know how many other nights or days he'd spent there. He clearly knew it. And I'd love to know what else was on his drone but.he clearly knew to fly it over the river.

He was prowling round the student zone long before she'd even left to go out. He had a book of student accommodation at home to help him. And yet he didn't bother to wear a condom for what even he must have known was going to be taken far more seriously than his usual crimes? He's not that dumb. Planned to prowl but forgot his condoms? I don't buy it

I cannot see any scenario where she suddenly stops screaming completely, he then starts to run away and she gets up to run towards a river without more screaming (in that heightened state every bit of hedge or twig would make you scream I think).

She becomes utterly silent and not picked up by any CCTV on her way whilst he is unlucky enough to be not only picked up by CCTV but also a witness.

For me that would depend on how close to the river the attack happened...its possible a person may sob for a very short while after an attacker left your side an ran ..that wouldn't be heard from a distance..im not 100% sure or not if running in opposite direction to the attacker you may not scream as to not want him to know where you are

 

[JosieJo]

No it says it picked up him and Libby arriving but only him leaving. I'm still confused as to where exactly it picked them up

Again though that's the prosecution speech wording...their version is that he left alone

 

[HopeForGoodNews]

Sounds like you need to take a walk over there, do some “boots on the ground” sleuthing for us!

I am tempted

 

[martenwearer]

She could have run off and ended up in the river hence the screams.
Why wouldn’t that be a possibility?

playing the devils advocate for debate

Good point. But on a freezing cold night, if she entered/put into the water, she could have encountered cold water shock and I don't think you can scream.

Instead you start hyperventilating and breathing in water, resulting in drowning (which is not the case) But it can also cause cardiac arrest, which is something not mentioned by the pathologist...?

"most people who are susceptible to Cold Water Shock die in the first minute of immersion." this may explain the 7.5 minutes.

Cold shock response - Wikipedia
The cold shocking truth…. about cold water shock | Up to Speed | e-newsletters | News & Events | RYA - Royal Yachting Association

 

[Skigh]

I am tempted

We would be extremely grateful if you did. Could you take some pictures?

 

[HopeForGoodNews]

Very unlikely that CCTV from the opposite side of the river would pick up much of anything in the park. There's a treeline along the bank, which is fairly dense even in winter, and the bank of the river is reached via a slope up from the park. I imagine that any footage shows activity nearby the river only.

So if it picked them up near the river, hopefully it showed she had been taken there against her will or the act of her entering the river in whatever way. Anyway who leaves a drunk girl that close to a river without realisibg she may come to harm (if he tried using that as defence)

 

[JosieJo]

So if it picked them up near the river, hopefully it showed she had been taken there against her will or the act of her entering the river in whatever way. Anyway who leaves a drunk girl that close to a river without realisibg she may come to harm (if he tried using that as defence)

Yes I would think so ..but surprised that wasn't mentioned in prosecution opening if they can actually see them both by river

 

[Newthoughts]

Again though that's the prosecution speech wording...their version is that he left alone

I don't think they lie tho

 

[Sooty]

Just reading about diagnosing hypothermia post mortem also.

Again, it’s not as straightforward as you would want it to be in a case like this - and is complicated by alcohol intoxication - which can prevent adaptation responses - and decomposition.

It was interesting to read about hypothermia and it’s signs and symptoms - she was very vulnerable, physically and medically, even if she hadn’t fallen into the path of someone who would cause her harm.

 

[Ktboo]

I’m not sure why timings are a concern for people. It really does not take long to kill someone, especially when they’re not putting up a fight and when adrenaline is pumping. IIRC the snow was not thick enough that it would make it difficult for him or her to run in - I can’t remember the last time we got snow that thick in Hull! Also, if she is dead/unconscious carrying her wouldn’t be an issue, she doesn’t look particularly heavy and she was likely quite floppy (can’t think of a better word). Further, he was likely considerably sexually charged at that point so the rape wouldn’t have taken long if you catch my drift.