Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #10

[poirotoupierrot]

If you were in the family's position what would you be hoping for ?
That she had been abducted and probably dead by now, or that she had left of her own accord, abandoning her family ?

I don't think she wanted to leave. But she could have been deceived into leaving the area of the walk somehow, and then she might have met someone unsavoury at the road and realised the situationw as different from what she thought. I increasingly think this. It's to me the only feasible way she could have left the area unnoticed. Unless she's still soemwhere in the area - as Paul seems to suspect - but being hidden or - something else.

 

[Cherrycola88]

Just read the interview at this link :

Morning Nicola Bulley vanished was 'different' to others, partner Paul Ansell says as he reveals when panic set in

NICOLA Bulley’s partner Paul Ansell says that the morning of the mum’s disappearance had already felt “different” before she vanished. Paul sat down with Channel 5̵…

www.thesun.co.uk

That interview implies to me that he was getting worried something had happened at 10:20 because she was 20 minutes late and hadn't answered her phone a few times.

As I say, every family is different but at that point myself and the wife agree we wouldn't be going out looking unless there was a previously known cause for concern.

At the point of the school ringing at 10:50 then I would absolutely be in the car, but before then ? I don't think I would.

JMO.

You're right - everyone is different and it's no one's place to judge how quickly PA should/shouldn't have phoned the police. He's damned if he did and damned if he didn't. From what PA divulged in the Ch 5 interview, Nicola's was sometimes slightly later back from her walk every once so often, but for her to still not be home by 10.30ish was very unusual. PA then called her phone and WhatsApp but no answer. He called her phone again and no answer. Then, just as he was about to leave the house, he got a call from his kids' school, who said Willow was found running loose and Nicola's phone sat on the bench. He told Dan Walker that Willow is "like a third child to us" and would never leave her on her own like that, which is what set off further alarm bells in his head, so he called the police as soon as he heard it. With all these elements combined, I can perfectly understand why he was straight on the ball with phoning the police.

 

[poirotoupierrot]

If she's not in the river and we look at other possibilities, then in what scenario did her phone and the dog lead end up on the bench? Staged as a decoy? then why not leave them at the river edge?
An abduction at the bench with distances to the exits and no-doubt a barking dog sounds unlikely. I suppose its possible it happened somewhere else nearer an exit and another walker (who has remained anonymous for whatever reason), innocently found the items and moved them to the bench to be found.

Yep - this is what I mentioned earlier.

 

[poirotoupierrot]

Yeah totally, that makes sense. It would take an enormous amount of manpower as well to literally search every nook and cranny, even in a village, and whilst a good portion of people would be willing, of course there would be people who didn't want a copper looking under their bed for a whole range of non murderous legit reasons.

PA actually specified outbuildings. That would make more sense, as houses are generally passing places. She could be held hostage somewhere - if she's alive - and this is more likely to be somewhere out of sight and not in a thoroughfare. To my mind, she was either put in a vehicle or is being held locally - somehow.

 

[zellner]

I agree.

I think it’s too early to discount drowning as I don’t believe she would turn up on the mud flats for a while.

But, it’s looking increasingly unlikely - in which case the focus needs to be on - if there were criminal involvement - how could it possibly have happened. It’s such a particular time frame and area.

I agree. If she fell in and drowned there is nothing anyone can do, but we have to hold onto the same hope that the family has if there is any shred of a chance of her coming home safe and focus more on the abduction scenarios.

 

[Cranky]

Mortgage rates have gone up substantially recently. A couple (not necessarily a husband and wife) could be feeling that they had been tricked into taking a mortgage which they now are not able to afford. Would that be a reason to attempt revenge maybe? Photos of where NB walked are readily available - I'm not sure what sort of distance from her local area NB arranged mortgages for but it would be easier for two or more people with local knowledge to attempt to "get even" with a person that they wrongly hold responsible for their predicament? MOO

 

[JaneDawn]

If somebody disappears next to a body of water, her belongings are found close by and her dog is in a distressed state near the water, it is not a ‘wild hypothesis’ that she went into the water. It is a reasonable assumption based on the known facts. And it still makes far more sense than any other theory out there, many of which are so implausible they border on lunacy.

Your comment that the police have ‘wasted days and days’ on the assumption that Nicola went into the water implies they haven’t considered any other explanation, which is a massive assumption on your part. Obviously they will be actively looking at other lines of enquiry too, but that doesn’t change the fact that the most likely explanation is still that Nicola went into the water

Just seen Channel 5 special. The partner and family don't think she's in the river and I have thought the same for time.

Having now seen Channel 5 footage of the river - very slow moving - and heard how not very deep it is from the bank, I'm inclined to 100% agree that I don't think she's in the river.

For starters:

1) The time gap from when she was last seen, and partner and police on site - almost 2 hours - is a concern as anything could have happened in that time.

2) The broken CCTVs don't help.

3) Why was the dog lead on the ground separate to the phone which was found on the bench? When I walk my dog, I hold the lead in one hand and phone in the other if I am on it. When I sit down on a bench whilst I'm on a call, and let the dog off the lead, I will have the lead next to me on the bench or in my bag; not on the ground.

Many a time I have had to go to retrieve my dog's ball and in all occasions, I'd never dream of leaving my phone on the bench. Phones are valuable pieces of equipment and it takes a second for someone to walk by and nab it.

Another point, is that if she did go into the river to retrieve the ball, it wouldn't have been done with the thinking, I imagine, that she thought it was so deep that her phone would be damaged so better leave it on the bench. Her coat was pretty thick with pockets so the natural thing would to put the phone in the pocket as opposed to leaving it on the bench isn't it?

4) I'm presuming she was on the Teams call video off, on mute, as none of the people call clearly don't know whats happened to her. If I am on a Teams call, and walking in the park, I will put my video off, and have my phone in either my hand, bag or coat pocket, with headphones in my ears. Talking of which, did she use headphones for Team calls? Where are these?

People don't just vanish like that. Someone somewhere knows something.

 

[poirotoupierrot]

I disagree. Hindsight is 20/20. My world is populated by busy parents and toddlers, parks, walks, dropped toys, forgotten baby change bags, etc etc. If - in a busy little dog/walking route like that - I spotted a dog and phone on a bench, I would NOT immediately think I should ring the police.

My first thought would be that a busy parent had taken a child off to the bushes because they couldn't wait for the bathroom, or that someone was chasing a toddler or something.

Most people would clock it for a matter of a minute or so, wandering past. Unless you were waiting there for a period of time, you'd have no idea how long the owner was gone for. If a period of time elapsed, yes, my thoughts on it would change, and I'd take appropriate action. Walking past and just seeing a dog and phone? Nope. I would not immediately call the police.

*modsnip*

So - whoever it was hung around then? It was also mentioned they recognised the dog, they just couldn't remember the owner.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I wonder if she was at the bench, then went near the water for whatever reason, while still carrying her phone, then she stumbled and fell towards/into the water, and instinctively as she fell, tossed her phone back toward the bench to keep it out of the water. She wouldn't have expected the fall to knock her out or that she wouldn't be able to get herself back out of the water. She easily might have been thinking about making sure the phone didn't get wet.

(Remembering that the phone, according to the description of the man who spotted it, wasn't ON the bench but on the ground NEAR the bench.)

MOO

 

[martinwatts5]

In my opinion, Nicola was listening to the Teams meeting whilst sitting on the bench. It was coming to an end so she walked down the bank to put the harness on Willow, leaving the phone on the bench as she wouldn’t want to be holding that as well. She slipped whilst trying to get the harness back on, leaving it on the bank. Of course it still leaves questions...why no trace of the fall? why didn’t Willow enter the water? why hasn’t she been found?

 

[Distant Observer]

Could Nicola have attracted a stalker? All of the pictures of her walks on and patterns of walking there by herself on a regular basis could have made her a target...

I too have thought that maybe someone could have been attracted to NB, especially by her lively personality and friendliness which could have been misinterpreted. 'Stalker' suggests someone weird with an obsession but there is the possibility that someone she was acquainted with had unrequited feelings for her. JMO

 

[wackyw]

The would you/wouldn't you call the police debate.....almost 14 years ago I had two police officers knock on my door. My husband was working away and I thought they'd come to tell me that he'd had an accident. He was dead - widowmaker heart attack. Until then if he was late or I was late neither of us was that bothered. What happened changed something - if bf now hasn't answered after a couple of calls I assume he's dead. He's as bad with me. I had a migraine the other day and he rang me to check I was home OK. I suppose once you lose that sense of security, that "everything is probably ok" sense then maybe you don't get it back. You don' know what people have had happen in their lives....JMO

I'm of the "everything is prob OK" and also "if I die then it's happened, but no point worrying beforehand" brigades. So thanks for that, it has helped me towards understanding others a bit more.

 

[Kassanddra]

@JaneDawn its been mentioned lots of times that she didn’t take a ball on dog walks anymore.

 

[Cranky]

I wonder if she was at the bench, then went near the water for whatever reason, while still carrying her phone, then she stumbled and fell towards/into the water, and instinctively as she fell, tossed her phone back toward the bench to keep it out of the water. She wouldn't have expected the fall to knock her out or that she wouldn't be able to get herself back out of the water. She easily might have been thinking about making sure the phone didn't get wet.

(Remembering that the phone, according to the description of the man who spotted it, wasn't ON the bench but on the ground NEAR the bench.)

MOO

That could easily happen if NB fell over the dog and rolled sideways into the river. My gran cracked three ribs falling over a dog that stood up as she tried to step over it.

 

[FlyHigh209]

The dog did seem extremely relaxed & friendly around a TV crew in the sitting room & a fan of Dan Walker. I would love to know if it uses the harness as toy at all or would pick up a dropped phone.

 

[poirotoupierrot]

I never walk alone anywhere in a wooded area / country park, etc. Tend to stick to residential areas, yet look at poor Sarah Everard.

Yeah, unfortunately all kinds of things make 'precautions' nonsense, don't they? We should just be free and go out. I guess it's a mixutre of anxiety and PTSD on my part. I know men who experience the same. I guess for me it's really about sexual violence and death, for them it's about violence and death. They jus thave more chance of fending someone off. Although I'm told you can use whatever's in your pocket, as long as it's not an actual weapon....

 

[poirotoupierrot]

The dog did seem extremely relaxed & friendly around a TV crew in the sitting room & a fan of Dan Walker. I would love to know if it uses the harness as toy at all or would pick up a dropped phone.

I was confused the harness was off the dog on being found. Is tha tjust the type of lead? I'd have thought harness would stay on for easy reattachment of the lead after a run, or is that not right?

 

[poirotoupierrot]

I'm not really understanding why there's this argument between the 10 minute window and now it's suddenly changed to 1-2 hours? Nicola was sighted at 9:10am then her phone was apparently at the bench at 9:20am (police must be sure of this). 10 mins later and the call has ended that she was on and she hasn't disconnected. So at most surely it's a 20 minute window? Sure the witness got there at 9:33am ish, but at that point Nicola was gone anyway... so the fact Paul wasn't notified until 10:50am (ish again) doesn't really make any difference?

Her phone being on doesn't mean she was there.

 

[Cranky]

I've also seen that PA said the dog was like a 3rd child and NB would never leave it. What if someone threatened to do something to that dog if you didn't do as they told you? I stopped walking in lonely places when I had a baby as I was aware that some people could get me to hand over anything by threatening the baby.

 

[tedtink]

Slightly disagree in that post mortem analysis can distinguish being strangled for example, and whether people are dead or alive when they enter the water - a dead body does not aspirate water into the lungs.

BBM
Respectfully disagree.
In LS postmortem strangulation/neck compression, dead or alive when having entered the water were not conclusive.