Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #10

[ayrshireguy]

Hi all, some Strava sleuthing from me. I'm a Strava subscriber which gives me access to 'segment' data and leaderboards. Basically a segment is a route, usually a short section, whereby if you pass through that segment it logs your data on the leaderboard.

Looking at NB's strava and her usual route, as per on Jan 27th, there are a few segments. On closer look at the data for these segments it shows someone, on the 27th, doing a very similar route, from the village.

Their walk starts at 10.24 and finishes at 11.31 Their route appears to differ from NB in that they head down stream along the river first then back, then to the area of bench/fields - if a body did travel downstream from bench area around that time, there could be a possibility of them noticing something floating down stream as they'd be walking in the same direction as the river flow for 20-30 ish minutes? Looking at the data this person does this route every day, except the few days following Jan 27th. They have 0 followers and follow 0 people.

Anyway my point is that they potentially could have either known NB or seen her previously or that day (potential witness) or a good chance that if a body travelled downstream at the time they were walking downstream for 15-20 mins, there could have been a good chance they'd have noticed, and if not, does that support the 'not in the river' line of thinking.

I hope I've explained what I'm saying ok but i'm happy to discuss, provide more info as I found it interesting. Thinking of NBs family, what an awful and sad case.

Good find and very interesting

 

[Fishwick]

But she could have been in the water (e.g. clinging to a rock) and the police did not turn up there immediately and went to his house instead? Saving life should always come first. The police don't know the scene if they haven't even seen it? And anyone else could have interfered in that time.

I think they did go to the scene first - he said they were there at 11.25 from memory. There’s also I assume more than one policeman so they could easily do both.

 

[Awaywego]

ok so what does it infer if things were more organised when he came down that morning?

I'd say probably nothing. Some mornings are less hectic than others.

 

[OrlandoJames]

ok so what does it infer if things were more organised when he came down that morning?

Nothing at all.

 

[EH_13]

ok so what does it infer if things were more organised when he came down that morning?

Nothing IMO. Sometimes this happens in my household if my partner has had a particularly good night's sleep and is feeling extra motivated. Remember it was a Friday morning and we're all typically more productive knowing that the weekend is here!

 

[Cluella DeVille]

A very good question!

For full disclosure, I do not think she fell into the river, I lean towards a third party intervention. Given that stance, I'm interested in what would have caused her to abandon phone and dog, and leave, e.g. through the kissing gate. I'm not sure where it was reported, but my impression was that the dog was found running between the bench and the kissing gate. Looking at the report on GMB yesterday (Thursday), the metal kissing gate is very close to the back of the bench, and leads to a tree/shrub lined footpath. Perhaps, at the crucial time, Willow was a little way away from the bench/gate and saw NB leave via the gate, so was naturally drawn to that area.

So why did she leave? Well, I can imagine if a third party came down the path to the gate and told her, for instance, they had come from the school and that one of her children had been taken ill/ had an accident, she would think of nothing other than to get to the child, forgetting everything else. I cannot imagine any other reason why she would just leave. Given the timings published by LE (last sighting 09:10, phone found 09:33), 20 minutes seems ample to lure her away. What happened therafter is not for me to speculate.

MOO

I think you have to kind of get in the head of someone with a devious mind if in fact malice was intended to lure her out of the gate away from a dog who might attack them or try to protect her. I mean going well off topic here, but look at Ted Bundy, he would put on a foot or arm plaster cast and/or be using crutches to feign helplessness to lure a victim to his car. Someone could easily have called her over saying they had problems opening the gate or pretended to fall so she would go to their aid. There's just no way of knowing without witnesses, a confession from someone or if she is found and able to tell what happened

 

[hedgetog]

Wow, I'm really glad I'm not a random person who uses Strava and walks in that area and then finds people on the internet posting that information.

Why? If you saw someone walking in the area you wouldn't know they were using Strava, and the account is either private or the poster has rightly not provided any personal info if it is on the app so its not like the person can be tracked any more than if someone saw them walking their route in person.

Probably a timely reminder though to check privacy settings on any apps that track your activity if you wouldn't want this viewable by anyone else.

 

[MsBetsy]

ok so what does it infer if things were more organised when he came down that morning?

Maybe, since normally she found herself in a rush, she decided to get up a bit earlier to get the kids ready, prepare for her day, etc.

Getting up a little earlier to get things done is not necessary a sudden change of behavior, imo.

 

[Andreee]

I'd say probably nothing. Some mornings are less hectic than others.

I would agree, but he specifically said that morning was different from all other ones and it put him on alert. Interesting but I can't think how it would be significant.

*modnote* / see transcript #787

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

I think they did go to the scene first - he said they were there at 11.25 from memory. There’s also I assume more than one policeman so they could easily do both.

If you look at PA's transcript (quoted on my message) he specifically states he had to go home (leave the scene) to meet the police. That would mean he left the scene before any police arrived.

I'm not buying that they wanted him away from the scene for evidence/investigation reasons, they could have sat him in the back of a police car and/or driven him home. I mean, expecting him to drive himself would not be good after the news he had. And I am not suggesting he was involved but in other cases this would be risky as there could be disposal of evidence en route home.

So the scene was possibly unattended for a while, or the dog walkers stayed until the police got there? It's not clear.

 

[cottonweaver]

I've not seen so many ghouls as have latched on to this case since the abuse directed at the McCanns. Perhaps there's an overlap.

Have seen some accounts who use McCann's daughters name in their Social Media accounts & yes they are posting stuff that just isn't accurate on this case.

This case - like the McCann's- has had massive media attention - think that is the main connection
There's plenty of missing person's families out there who are wondering why their relative isn't getting the same amount of attention.
What is it about this case which caught the national press's interest?

One from Nottingham. Link published yesterday
'My uncle is missing and presumed drowned - why aren't police helping us like the family of Nicola Bulley?'

‘Surely my uncle is just as important as this poor woman. Mark Bishop, 64, disappeared without a trace after he was last seen near an Aldi supermarket in Newark, Nottinghamshire, on 7 January this year.
Police believe he may have fallen into the nearby River Trent after crossing over a bridge but he has still not been found."

 

[Cluella DeVille]

Paul's interview was... heartbreaking. I feel so bad for him. He said though that if Nicola was taking the kids to school, he'd put Willow in the car but we saw the CCTV of Nicola doing it...? Which confused me a little unless I misunderstood something.

I still think she's in the river tbh because her running away does not seem at all likely by how she's been described, I guess we don't know what her mental health was truly like but honestly I doubt she'd choose that river if she was gonna go anywhere to do that. Then I just don't think an abduction is likely either given the short amount of time that would've happened in. It's a weird one for sure. I really hope they find her soon and I hope she's okay, but I'm not hopeful.

The CCTV that was released only shows her taking Willow to the car, Paul may well have already put the children in their car seats whilst she was putting the dog's harness on indoors. He didn't say he didn't help out that morning

 

[mrjitty]

Paul's interview was... heartbreaking.

RSBM

Agreed.

This may seem overly analytical but I suspect this interview should be kept in mind for the next "whoops where's my wife" case (Barry Morphew springs to mind)

There is stuff that is just so raw in there that I think you cannot fake. Confusion. Anger. Denial. Not being able to articulate. But also the continued urgency.

 

[IspyWithMyBigEye]

Or she was very nervious about being on time for her Teams call. And also emailed her boss about it beforehand, just to confirm - had they asked her to?!

Sounds like it to me. In the programme P said when he went downstairs everything was ready to go so it sounds like N wanted to get there sharpish in time for the teams meeting. I thought P came across completely natural and devastated and even said he called her twice when she was late getting back so for those trolls pointing fingers at him they’re very very wrong and need to stop it.

 

[PeggyHenry]

Not 15-20 late - he said 9.45 is normal, 10 is the later side, 10.15 is about the latest that she’d been out before and he started to get ready at 10.30. But he hasn’t set off when he got the call which if I remember correctly was 10.50.

Yes you are right. It was quite a big difference to her usual time for getting home.

 

[Andreee]

Sounds like it to me. In the programme P said when he went downstairs everything was ready to go so it sounds like N wanted to get there sharpish in time for the teams meeting. I thought P came across completely natural and devastated and even said he called her twice when she was late getting back so for those trolls pointing fingers at him they’re very very wrong and need to stop it.

Ah yes, that makes sense now that she wanted to get to her online teams meeting in time!

 

[IspyWithMyBigEye]

PF has a website which tells you he is an expert in many, many things and frequently presents on TV and podcasts about missing persons (the latter is taken directly from his bio), so tbh I am starting to believe as skilled as he is, this is a platform for him to extol rather than quietly assist the police professionally.

I don’t know how skilled he is, the body in the bag has never been solved though.

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

Thought this was a good walk through of the situation

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[Seattle1]

Suddenly the 'window' is publicly expanded to c. 2 hours (last witness sighting in Top Field - PA arriving on the scene), which is EXACTLY what I was trying to explain the other day when my post got angry reactions and was deleted for being speculation. I am relieved that this has now - finally! - been acknowledged. It should, IMO, have been right from the outset, as it potentially opens up a whole lot of other possible avenues to be pursued.

Police identify critical two hours after Nicola Bulley disappearance

The crucial gap of time between when Ms Bulley vanished and when authorities were called could have the answers as police identify three key blindspots in the area.

www.express.co.uk

Respectfully, I don't find this significant given police have repeatedly ruled out foul play -- most recently by the same MSM publication but hours following OPs quoted link.

IMO, the two hours between NB's last sighting and NB being reported missing to police is easily explained by her normal routine.

For example, if one routinely drives the children to school, walks the dog, and is not expected to be home before 11 AM, why would you think they are missing any time before that hour?

I think this kind of reporting only throws suspicion on the partner that allegedly filed the missing person report with the police. MOO

Police have ruled out foul play and are treating the incident as a missing person inquiry, believing Ms Bulley fell into the water.

Nicola Bulley's partner lays bare couple's marriage plan

Paul Ansell has insisted the missing mum "is coming home" as he launched a fresh appeal.

www.express.co.uk

 

[MsBetsy]

I would agree, but he specifically said that morning was different from all other ones and it put him on alert. Interesting but I can't think how it would be significant.

If she had done something different, like fill the freezer with a weeks supply of pre-made meals, I might be concerned.

When Debbie Collier went missing, her daughter remembered that when her mom left that day, she did not say goodbye, which was something she always did. She had also sent her daughter a venmo payment with a strange message before she went missing. There were other subtle hints that she had committed suicide, but only her daughter, who was closest to her, recognized the signs.

But because of all the sm speculation and abuse, her own family believed she murdered her mother and confronted her at the funeral!

The sm abuse and harassment can ruin lives and rip families apart, and hinders crucial police investigations.

I'm not at all surprised that police have warned the public there will be consequences for the harassment. I wish they would do that more often.