Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #10

[PeggyHenry]

That might just be the dog walking cycle of those paths and fields. Anyone of ill intent could have worked that out over a number of days of observation. This version of the third party theory suggests planning rather than chance opportunity. He's been there for a while working it out and must have left evidence of himself and possibly NB somewhere around that caravan park. IMO

I'm talking myself out of the tragic accident river theory by the minute.

Yep … with you

 

[IspyWithMyBigEye]

Hi all, some Strava sleuthing from me. I'm a Strava subscriber which gives me access to 'segment' data and leaderboards. Basically a segment is a route, usually a short section, whereby if you pass through that segment it logs your data on the leaderboard.

Looking at NB's strava and her usual route, as per on Jan 27th, there are a few segments. On closer look at the data for these segments it shows someone, on the 27th, doing a very similar route, from the village.

Their walk starts at 10.24 and finishes at 11.31 Their route appears to differ from NB in that they head down stream along the river first then back, then to the area of bench/fields - if a body did travel downstream from bench area around that time, there could be a possibility of them noticing something floating down stream as they'd be walking in the same direction as the river flow for 20-30 ish minutes? Looking at the data this person does this route every day, except the few days following Jan 27th. They have 0 followers and follow 0 people.

Anyway my point is that they potentially could have either known NB or seen her previously or that day (potential witness) or a good chance that if a body travelled downstream at the time they were walking downstream for 15-20 mins, there could have been a good chance they'd have noticed, and if not, does that support the 'not in the river' line of thinking.

I hope I've explained what I'm saying ok but i'm happy to discuss, provide more info as I found it interesting. Thinking of NBs family, what an awful and sad case.

Don’t forget lots of dog walkers use the fields there so she/he sounds like just another dog walker and there’s only really one kind of route anyway, only difference would be their entry/exit ends. They started the walk well over an hour after N vanished so I don’t see much connection IMO. Maybe they didn’t do the walks the next few days as it was the weekend and they went away somewhere and by the Monday when crowds started congregating and all the activity going on, they decided to walk elsewhere so not to disturb the searchers.

Another things to remember is that dog walkers are looking ahead and wouldn’t be looking sideways staring down at the river. There is quite a drop to the river with little to see. The other problem in spotting someone if you’re not expecting to see someone in the river is that N was wearing dark blue/black clothing which was almost the colour of the river water. She’d be hard to spot and that’s if she hadn’t sunk by then which is a big possibility after an hour.

 

[cottonweaver]

Nothing? I'm from a big family. Some school mornings we were fighting over the bathroom and mum was trying to make lunches and make sure we'd got PE kit because we'd left stuff to the last minute. Other days it went like clockwork.

Think you're probably right & that it's a nothing burger.
Noticed that the Sun latched onto it too, made an article with that title ' something was different'

Made me click on the link though, so it worked, suckered!! especially when ' panicked' was added right next to that word.
Added some mystery to that early morning pre-school run, which probably isn't real.

link for photo

Morning Nicola Bulley vanished was 'different' to others, partner Paul Ansell says as he reveals when panic set in

NICOLA Bulley’s partner Paul Ansell says that the morning of the mum’s disappearance had already felt “different” before she vanished. Paul sat down with Channel 5&#821…

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[MsBetsy]

It sounds as though NB was more organised that morning than usual.

Possible reasons:
1. Had a Teams meeting scheduled for 9
2. Was excited at something ( remember her parents said that she was upbeat on Thurs evening)

I keep going back to Thurs afternoon evening. Meeting in Garstang with boss who had driven over especially from Keighley area.
Straight after this meeting she has a zoom call re mortgage
Calls boss prior to 9 am Friday meeting.
So you could say her head is full of work related stuff…. She is upbeat

Next morning gone!

Yes, but being more upbeat or more organized than usual is not necessarily a red flag that one is about to go missing.

Surely there were days when she was more upbeat, or more organized than another day, but didn't disappear?

Either way, it doesn't point to suicide, being voluntarily missing, or an abduction, or tell us anything about what happened to her.

 

[cottonweaver]

But considering the police's main theory is currently that she fell in the water, surely this was a huge mistake that needs acknowledging?

Now they are saying phone/dog near water means she probably fell in the water...but it did not cross their mind when 101/999 were told in the first place that a phone and dog were found without their owner next to the water?!

Faulding said that LancsPolice had diver in that spot on the very day that she went missing

 

[Bluesleuth66]

And i believe this was because he thought it had been a little strange earlier in the day after he woke up and everything had been organised more than any other day he was laready on alert. IMO

"...on alert"???
Honestly - the inference in your comment is completely unfounded in my opinion.

What he's said was when he came down, not when he woke up. He could have been a little later down than usual, she could have been a little earlier than usual - especially knowing she had a work engagement at 9.00 so she would want to be sorted out in good time. All he said was that there was just not much rushing.

Personally I don't read anything untoward in this at all (having had three sons of my own - sometimes it's manic, sometimes it's well ordered).
Just seems like a pretty normal description of early mornings with kids at most households to be honest.
.

 

[IspyWithMyBigEye]

The timings are extremely important but not because it necessarily changes the window of opportunity, but because it paints a new picture of the scene in question. Before the new timings were revealed we had a pretty hazy idea of what was going on between 9:33 and when the alarm was raised at 10:50 am; how many people found the dog/phone? who recognised the dog? did the dog finder do any preliminary search (however short) for nicola or shout for her? When did they figure it out and finally tell Paul/the police?

Speaking for myself and having read the press conferences I had this idea in my head that after 9:33 there was at least some activity in terms of trying to figure out who's phone and dog were on the bench. In reality what happened between 9:33 and 10:50 was precisely... nothing.

Not a single witness saw the dog and the phone near the bench for 80 minutes. Bear in mind that both were directly beside the main walkway into the area at somewhat of a bottleneck. They would be hard to miss even for the most unobservant country stroller. On top of that the witness is in a rush and deems it only urgent enough to tell her daughter in law about the abandoned dog and lost phone in the park (she thought she recognised the dog but couldn't remember whose it was). She ties the dog up with a piece of string (String?!) before leaving.

What this says to me is that the area is more remote than perhaps it's made out to be. Yes there is a short window for her disappearance, but there is an extremely long and unobserved window for whatever happened after her disappearance.

IMO unless you actually see the area in real life it’s difficult to judge what you would/wouldn’t see as you walked past near the bench. If people walked past and saw a dog tied to the bench they’d think the owner had tied it there for some reason and it’s unlikely they’d have spotted the phone laying on the bench, and if they did they’d probably think it was the owner’s. That’s assuming they even glanced. They may have been focussed on their own things and took little notice.

 

[Seattle1]

Missing Nicola was reported missing 2 HOURS after she was last seen

THIS is how the hunt for missing mum Nicola Bulley has unfolded in the two weeks since she vanished. Tomorrow will mark the 14th day since the mum-of-two was last seen – here’s a breakd…

www.the-sun.com

10 Feb 2023

Then, at 9.35am, Nicola's phone was found on the bench, with Willow nearby, but she was nowhere to be seen.

Pals of Nicola have said the person tied the dog to the bench and messaged a family member asking if they knew who it belonged to.

When they were told it was Nicola's they phoned her daughters' school, who then phoned her partner Paul Anesll.

The Telegraph today revealed police were only made aware the mum was missing almost two hours after she was last seen.

Lancashire Police confirmed it only received a call at 11am, but quickly launched a probe.

 

[mrjitty]

I think we have to be careful second guessing police procedures which are developed over many years and based on 1000s of cases - especially they are not designed for edge cases, but the more common risks.

When a women goes missing like this, one can understand why police might want to gain access to her home as soon as possible, while also mobilising at the point of disappearance.

 

[masekwm]

Remember the Strava privacy update, removes the first and last section now of any walks if the user selects the option so there'll be other users parking in similar places who routes start in similar places.
I saw the McCann comparison further up, I assume like G&K they have links to professionals who have helped get this case in the limelight and maintain it.

 

[cottonweaver]

I don’t know how skilled he is, the body in the bag has never been solved and he hasn’t found N (if she is in the river). So many people find him irritating so it isn’t just a few who find him that way. I did notice how he was spruced up on the programme last night with a very nice but unsuitable tie and pocket hankie. I also saw him standing by a helicopter outside what looked like his big detached house which was unnecessary too.

Haven't been able to watch the C5 programme yet but didn't realise he appeared to.
Just noticed that he's also done a special interview for the Daily Mail, this morning

 

[mrjitty]

Haven't been able to watch the C5 programme yet but didn't realise he appeared to.
Just noticed that he's also done a special interview for the Daily Mail, this morning

Our old mate MWT is also doing his contrarian act in the media.

On the one hand it keeps coverage going, but on the other hand, I am not sure how useful all these mixed messages are?

 

[cottonweaver]

new links, this morning https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html



Irony is dead



Two articles which appear next to each other at the link above

JANET STREET-PORTER: The Nicola Bulley mystery isn't a Netflix crime show. Our endless demand for TV police dramas is to blame for the circus of ghouls and amateur detectives salivating over this tragic saga and adding to the agony of her poor family​

and

EXCLUSIVE

The EIGHT key clues in Nicola Bulley's disappearance: Former detective says police must look closer at the missing mother's phone, fitbit and her dog​

Yes @mrjitty MWT, Group Investigations Editor (Newsquest)TV Reporter.The Investigator(Netflix) , is key contributor for the ' Exclusive' in the Mail, today, see above.

MWT has also claimed that '....actually only needs to be a matter of 10, 15 seconds. “It's that quick, that you can actually abduct someone, or alternatively, you can get away yourself."

 

[Cluella DeVille]

Nobody as said the harness was wet. Let's say it was!! Are you saying she went in a freezing cold river in jan to retrieve a item that costs a few pounds? Then when she gets in the river grabs the harness she then throws it 20 meters up a very steep embankment? Then drowns ?

I was at a friend's just a couple of days ago who has a springer spaniel. Whilst I was sitting on the sofa he came over to me carrying his quite large and weighty harness in his mouth. So the location of Willow's harness could well be that she had walked around with it in her mouth and dropped it, it's position or proximity to the water may not signify it having being strategically placed or thrown by someone at all

 

[IspyWithMyBigEye]

I think you have to kind of get in the head of someone with a devious mind if in fact malice was intended to lure her out of the gate away from a dog who might attack them or try to protect her. I mean going well off topic here, but look at Ted Bundy, he would put on a foot or arm plaster cast and/or be using crutches to feign helplessness to lure a victim to his car. Someone could easily have called her over saying they had problems opening the gate or pretended to fall so she would go to their aid. There's just no way of knowing without witnesses, a confession from someone or if she is found and able to tell what happened

Problem with that is IMO they’d have had to know N would sit on that bench and at what time. Next problem would be how would they get her out tye through the exits which are 5/10 minutes away without anyone seeing? Without Willow barking and following and N screaming and struggling? It’s broad daylight in the morning with people coming and going, that just couldn’t happen IMO

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I'm new to the forum but wanted to give my thoughts on Willow's behaviour.

If it was normal for Nicola to take Willow's harness off once they reached the fields past the kissing gate, and then put the harness back on as the walk was ending, it makes sense to me that the bench was the usual place for Nicola to do it. The bench would give Nicola somewhere to place her phone, gloves or any other belongings that might have needed to be temporarily put down, instead of putting them on the ground or trying to shove everything in her pockets.

If going back to the bench and then exiting back through the kissing gate was Nicola and Willow's normal routine at the end of the walk, Willow would be used to that IMO. If Nicola had gone back to the bench and somehow fallen into the water without Willow seeing it happen, it makes complete sense to me that Willow would be found where she expected Nicola to be.

Willow's behaviour could mean she saw Nicola leave by the gate, but I'm much more inclined to think she was running between the bench and the gate because in Willow's mind, those are the two places where Nicola would have been and should have been on any other day. IMO Willow wouldn't necessarily be agitated in that location if she didn't see what happened, at least not at first. Initially she'd just be confused and inquisitive about why "mum" wasn't there. She might even think it was a game.

None of that explains how Nicola disappeared or how she vanished so quickly if she fell in the water, but sadly I don't think Willow's behaviour tells us much.

 

[cottonweaver]

re ' something was different that morning '

hindsight or confirmation bias

'what is confirmation bias?
confirmation bias, people's tendency to process information by looking for, or interpreting, information that is consistent with their existing beliefs. This biased approach to decision making is largely unintentional, and it results in a person ignoring information that is inconsistent with their beliefs'. Confirmation bias | Definition, Examples, Psychology, & Facts

and yes I do it myself too!
research into this is more involved than that short definition but trying to do a short post

Biased Search for Information. This type of confirmation bias explains people's search for evidence in a one-sided way to support their hypotheses or theories. ... Biased Interpretation. ... Biased Memory

 

[msmarple99]

I was at a friend's just a couple of days ago who has a springer spaniel. Whilst I was sitting on the sofa he came over to me carrying his quite large and weighty harness in his mouth. So the location of Willow's harness could well be that she had walked around with it in her mouth and dropped it, it's position or proximity to the water may not signify it having being strategically placed or thrown by someone at all

PA would know whether willow carries her harness jMO

 

[russeverton]

If I was p.a taking willow for a walk i would take it on the exact same route n.b took. Then sit on the bench. Go to river bed and then with right attire and medical team and lifeguard on standby get in the river where its 2 ft deep and splash around like hes struggling and see how willow reacts. Because i am 99 percent sure that dog would either get in the river or stand very close to river edge and make a lot of noise. I certainly dont think it would be around the bench/gate area running around

 

[IspyWithMyBigEye]

I think you have to kind of get in the head of someone with a devious mind if in fact malice was intended to lure her out of the gate away from a dog who might attack them or try to protect her. I mean going well off topic here, but look at Ted Bundy, he would put on a foot or arm plaster cast and/or be using crutches to feign helplessness to lure a victim to his car. Someone could easily have called her over saying they had problems opening the gate or pretended to fall so she would go to their aid. There's just no way of knowing without witnesses, a confession from someone or if she is found and able to tell what happened

Problem with that is IMO they’d have had to know N would sit on that bench and at what time. Next problem would be how would they get her out tye through the exits which are 5/10 minutes away without anyone seeing? Without Willow barking and following and N screaming and struggling? It’s broad daylight in the morning with people coming and going, that just couldn’t happen IMO

RSBM

Agreed.

This may seem overly analytical but I suspect this interview should be kept in mind for the next "whoops where's my wife" case (Barry Morphew springs to mind)

There is stuff that is just so raw in there that I think you cannot fake. Confusion. Anger. Denial. Not being able to articulate. But also the continued urgencComForTing com