Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #12

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  • #681
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The river is not tidal in this location. The construction of the stone Weir has caused it to become partly tidal which is not the same as it being tidal.

That is the whole point of the Weir.
The tidal river comes from the sea…

The weir which was built to control river levels is just 100 yards from where NB was sat on the bench. It’s highly possible she fell in at that spot, but equally, she could have fallen further up nearer the weir had Willow shot off chasing a rabbit or something. Dogs are always chasing squirrels etc and NB was fit and healthy…so she’d have had no problem wuickly chasing her. It’s equally possible she fell into the river further along.
 
  • #682
The tidal river comes from the sea…

The weir which was built to control river levels is just 100 yards from where NB was sat on the bench. It’s highly possible she fell in at that spot, but equally, she could have fallen further up nearer the weir had Willow shot off chasing a rabbit or something. Dogs are always chasing squirrels etc and NB was fit and healthy…so she’d have had no problem wuickly chasing her. It’s equally possible she fell into the river further along.
The Weir is downstream of the bench not upstream.

Agree about the dog chasing squirrels.
 
  • #683
To me, Paul Ansell looks like a man who is shell shocked and overwhelmed. Like, wow, I didn’t expect it to go this far, the media attention has gone wild!
 
  • #684
The last confirmed sighting of NB was at 09:10

The police know by having had technical specialists inspect her phone that she was on that bench and put her phone on that bench shortly after that.

She would have been throwing sticks or suchlike to keep Willow entertained whilst listening in to her work call. At around 09:20 something occurred which caused her to stand up. The most obvious cause would be Willow. She either went inside some bushes or too near the water. Whatever, that’s the approximate time she IMO tumbled into the river and went under. Thirteen minutes later the caravan park lady passed by and noticed Willow distressed. She may well have glanced at the river, but she wouldn’t have seen NB if she’d drowned as she’d have been under the water on the riverbed, not moving, and being dressed in dark blue and black clothing there’d be no sight of her beneath the dark muddy river.

IMO this is the most obvious scenario.

The scenario some people talk of, saying maybe she was abducted by a man, maybe two men, would mean when they supposedly bundled her off, struggling, screaming and Willow frantically barking, the caravan lady who was right in the vicinity never saw then, never heard screaming, never heard shouting, never heard frantic barking, never heard footsteps - and never saw a thing. And all in broad daylight. And there was no traces of a struggle, drag marks, blood stains, phone cutting off, no forensics of strange fingerprints, footprints, hairs, fibres, unknown phone signals, no cctv of an abduction, and not one single other person saw or heard anything violent, either….
I agree she entered the river, the one outstanding aspect is whether this was by accident. The bit that interests me is whether the person who found the dog checked the river and if they did should they expect to see a body. I don't know how clear the water is there and I have no knowledge of what you could expect to see in 2 foot of water. However, I regularly walk the river Don in Sheffield which runs through the industrial part of Sheffield and I would state on oath I can make out specific items at the bottom of water that looks 6 to 10 feet deep. Maybe the water there is more polluted, but I'd like to see a test of dropping something similar in size to NB in the water just to see what can be seen
 
  • #685
That one isn't. There are no sluices anywhere on it. It is to break the effect of the tide, provide deeper water above possibly for good fishing sport, prevent boat access upstream from the tidal section, create shallows below the weir to make access more difficult and other reasons why a wealthy land owner would do this. It makes an awful lot of sense.
But that’s what I already said: succinctly, to control river levels.
 
  • #686

So I think it comes under Common Land and Village Greens.
You were right, it is actually the local authority that holds these records.
The actual search is pay only but is No22 on the link..
The little brick water station opposite where the bench that been broken into states it’s private land on that but anyway
1676362140245.jpeg
 
  • #687
Also have noticed that there are lots of people on social media and online in general who don’t usually follow cases the way we do here at WS and therefore are less likely to understand how many disappearances with similar circumstances have no criminal involvement atall.
Some of the outrageous theories and accusations I’ve seen are disgusting imo.

These people are bashing the police but they deal with missing persons cases every day, they know what indicates suspicious circumstances and what doesn’t imo.

Any time there’s a high profile case all the expert detectives come out the woodwork and create drama. Not everything is something out of a Netflix documentary. Majority of the time occams razor applies and especially when a person disappears near water in a small window of time in broad daylight, the most obvious theory is probably the correct one MOO.

Agreed.

One of the major issues in cases like these is police investigate multiple theories of the case like accidental death, voluntary disappearance, abduction etc by looking for evidence of each theory. If you don't find such evidence, then likely your theory is incorrect but also, you then have nothing to show for your work.

The similarity to Libby or Sarah Everard or Leah Croucher is when someone 'vanishes" it's very hard to prove to the public what is going on when you keep not making any breakthroughs to tell them about, so then the media and pundit class claim you must be doing it wrong.

But there will always be edge cases were the missing person is not recovered for an extended period.
 
  • #688
I'm sure it has been mentioned and also searched, but the area she was last seen by a witnesses (the older couple) in the upper field, Nicola's dog was barking at the trees which is how the couple noticed her being there, has this area been searched? What was willow barking at? Did she see/hear something? Obviously, she may be a very vocal dog and we don't know, but dogs generally bark to alert you to something.



I'm just not sure she got any further from this field as she wasn't seen again from this point. I'm not sure how open the field is where she was last seen, but it looks pretty secluded in some places. I don't know how far it is to get back to the bench area or if she would have taken a different exit, but she wasn't seen on the route back from the top field. I know with her phone and dog being found at the bench, this is where the search started, but after witnesses came forward to say where they saw her, why didn't they move the search to the upper field? Maybe they did?
Do you have a link mentioning the dog barking at the trees? I don't remember reading or hearing that.
 
  • #689
The blue is where the bench is. The red is where the Weir is. The river is moving from left to right unless there is a big tide which comes over the Weir in which case presumably it could move the other way.

IMO the path leaves the river there and nobody other than keen anglers would be beside the river in the bow shaped section where the white writing is. Maybe there is a path but I think possibly not an adopted path.

IMG_20230214_080851.jpg
 
  • #690
I just did a search of the Land Registry, and whilst it isn't possible to see all the details without paying for them, what does appear to be the case in this area of the river is that there are many easements and restrictions, suggesting the ownership and right of access etc. is quite complex and shared amongst a number of different people.
That suggests it’s government owned. Like I said, The Crown owns it and that can be found on Google without needing to do an LG search.
 
  • #691
Would the keys not be with NB along with her other possesions?
Hello, new here! I’m still unsure as to whether she had a bum bag or a seperate handbag. I’m assuming she had a bumbag and it was still wrapped around her body perhaps with her purse,keys,doggy bags in etc
 
  • #692
The little brick water station opposite where the bench that been broken into states it’s private land on that but anyway
View attachment 402761

Probably because it is private land with a footpath going across it. It is interesting the way it is banked up there. That shows up in the maps as an embankment. Presumably a flood defence for the village and grazing land. Maybe not today but that would have had livestock on it once upon a time.
 
  • #693
Hello, new here! I’m still unsure as to whether she had a bum bag or a seperate handbag. I’m assuming she had a bumbag and it was still wrapped around her body perhaps with her purse,keys,doggy bags in etc
Just because no handbag has been traced, and I’d assume if there was one, this would have been left by the bench
 
  • #694
so when people vanish LE doesn't investigate spouses and partners? Thats news to me
I'm sure they consider all the possibilities but in this case there is no evidence of a crime, no suspect thus no one to clear

JMO
 
  • #695
Been thinking…
If this case hadn’t blown up the way it has, would our opinion be that Nicola sadly fell into the river as is the outcome of many missing persons cases where water is involved?

I’m wondering if the public and media hype around Nicola’s disappearance has made us over think the circumstances and come up with theories that are unlikely when compared to an accident near water.

I know I’ve been suspicious and believed that there could be some foul play involved. But when you sit back and look at the facts, it does point more to a simple accident than to a third party coming along and harming or abducting Nicola in broad daylight when a dog walker could pass by at any moment.

It could have been something as simple as Willow being near the water, Nicola going to put the harness on ready to walk back to the car and stumbling or tripping, Willow could have then dropped the harness so that being on the ground does not seem too suspicious to me.

I feel like public speculation may have blown this all out of proportion and encouraged even more gossip and theories. If this case wasn’t in the media and we were just discussing it on WS then we’d most likely be of the opinion that Nicola is in the river. We know from other cases that bodies can be discovered months later so then not finding her doesn’t really mean that she isn’t there.

We’ve followed many cases over the years where the media get carried away and encourage public speculation when the outcome is really the most likely. And also followed cases similar to this one that don’t get much media attention, which end up being a tragic accident.

There are some parts of this story I find strange and possibly suspicious. However, for the most part it appears more likely to be a lady who took her dog a walk after the school run and sadly ended up in the water after a fall or medical episode. If we ignore the media hype and just look at the initial circumstances, are they really that suspicious? Or have we built it up in our minds to be criminal after media and social media have made it into something nefarious?

All MOO
I agree with you 100%.

I’ve always believed the most likely scenario is that NB accidentally fell into the river. Anyone can drown, however good a swimmer they are if the circumstances are against them. For one thing, how would she have climbed out of the river? That bank is so steep and slippery. And that’s providing she wasn’t knocked unconscious falling headfirst or gasped with cold water shock and inhaled a vast amount of water.

I’ve seen people theorise so many unlikely scenarios, some that are logically impossible. Yet some people get carried away and their imaginations run riot.

Let’s just hope she is found soon wherever she is. It must be agony for her family.
 
  • #696
Thread is now closed until morning.
 
  • #697
Thread is open.
 
  • #698
  • #699
  • #700
If I said to you that I’d gone to LancsPolice at the weekend and given them a map of the local area pointing out to them ditches, hedgerows and wooded areas which could be potential body deposition spots - what would you say to me?

Be honest!
 
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