Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #15

[abovethestorm]

This is my thinking. NB would have had a tiny window of opportunity, but IF she could have left by the main path, there can't have been any witnesses on the path when she did it. It's a fairly long path so that's a big risk to take if you don't want to be seen. If the gentleman walked along the path from Blackpool Ln, IMO he almost certainly would have crossed paths with NB given the small timeframe involved.

Yes, there are 2 paths - the main path which exits through the kissing gate, and the riverbank one leading to/from the stile. It's possible that NB and the 2 'first on the scene' witnesses were on different paths, that being the case. Further clarification on that point would be very useful/crucial, IMO.

 

[Mr X]

IMO if that sign on the tree has been shot at (there will be lead in it if it has) the angle seems to indicate perhaps that red brick building with the nice sandstone sills and windows could be the source.

In this picture from 4 years ago the door is open.

Have police been in there and categorically ruled it out ? IMO it is not a pumping station.

 

[DazN]

They were coming from Blackpool Lane/Garstang Road as the 9:33 witness says (via friend via reporter) that she came through the kissing gate and the man followed her through.

It's not a very big area though so they'd not have taken long to walk down the River Path but it certainly would limit the time NB could have walked out that way.

So trying to visualize this scenario a little better going by the things the man said in the interview:

Penny initially finds phone and dog and fastens dog to bench (which would be a responsible thing to do IMO)

Penny calls the man's wife (could he have been the vet we have heard mentioned?)

Man sees phone and dog (is dog fastened or has she got loose again by this point?)

Man returns and looks at phone (with someone - Penny?) and recognises NB? (was this on his return leg and who was he with?)

JMO

 

[ayrshireguy]

IMO if that sign on the tree has been shot at (there will be lead in it if it has) the angle seems to indicate perhaps that red brick building with the nice sandstone sills and windows could be the source.

In this picture from 4 years ago the door is open.

Have police been in there and categorically ruled it out ? IMO it is not a pumping station.

View attachment 403448

There was a video of someone going into it and was reported that police did search it but did not go down the ladders as it was covered in cobwebs.

 

[geelongcate]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed for implications about a non POI and social media rumours>

Very good points. So in fact, any story that might (or might not) have come out may not have directly concerned the information about NB's drinking/hormone levels at all...

That makes a lot of sense, both because I can't see how anyone outside the family would've had access to such intimate medical information, and because it appears the press would not have been allowed to publish it anyway.

 

[Mycroft42]

Unless Nicola or both witnesses were on the path over the stile that hugs the riverbank, as there are 2 paths - the main path which exits through the kissing gate, and the riverbank one leading to the stile.

She could have been.

They weren't. They came through the kissing gate but we don't know how they got to that point as there are a couple of entrances that lead there.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

Very good points. So in fact, any story that might (or might not) have come out may not have directly concerned the information about NB's drinking/hormone levels at all...

That makes a lot of sense, both because I can't see how anyone outside the family would've had access to such intimate medical information, and because it appears the press would not have been allowed to publish it anyway.

The welfare check is really significant information.

Perimenopausal and alcohol is not that uncommon. welfare check couple of weeks before going missing is massive

 

[geelongcate]

Tricky, as in the circumstances this knowledge could be in the public interest. Hypothetically, drink-driving, a fight or anti-social behaviour. But no newspaper would publish this lightly, and only if in public interest or if family gave permission. Again, tricky, as are the family entitled to give info on Nikki when she cannot reply. I think this set of circumstances is unprecedented in lots of ways. If I were to write this information, I would first put it in a polite letter and ask the family liaison officer to hand it to the next of kin, and put a query in to the police. The response to these would determine the next move.

Thanks, very interesting.

 

[Mycroft42]

The welfare check is really significant information

Yes.

JMO but I suspect this was the trigger that lead NB to plan her disappearance. I think she'd probably been thinking about it since early Dec.

 

[cottonweaver]

He stated that police did not label Nicola as being high risk until yesterday?

I thought they considered her high risk from the beginning?

I can't remember now Betsy - I'd have to go check it again

But iirc we all knew on WS that something about the case was HIGH risk ( even if they never used those words) just from the police response that it was being treated as such ( full scale starts c Jan 30th with helicopters, drones, dogs, divers, land searches etc etc, first divers and immediate land search started on 27th)

This is why WS members had been posting the classification tables for a couple of weeks.

Missing persons | College of Policing

This page is from APP, the official source of professional practice for policing.

www.college.police.uk

 

[Beginnersleuth]

We don't really know. The family said they were aware, but we don't know if the police got their approval or not.

We still don’t know who “the family” are who are saying this - is it her mum, dad, sister, Paul speaking in unison or just one or some of them. It would potentially change perspective knowing that.

 

[geelongcate]

Sorry if I've missed it, but was the release of the personal information about NB done at the request of the family or did the police take it upon themselves to release that information? Or do we not know for sure. If it was the family, could the police release that information whether the family said it was okay or not?

The initial police statement said it had been "explained" to the family why it was necessary to release the information, which rather implies they weren't wholly in agreement with doing so. It certainly doesn't sound like the family requested the information be released.

The family then released a follow-up statement once that information had been published, which obviously was their decision.

 

[Agatha3]

I was responding to the thread of the conversation that it is not understood how the family / police making these statements has prevented or deterred anyone from selling stories....which was the underlying threat that led to the announcement in the first place, but correct me if I'm wrong?
Whoever these people are who would be willing or wanting to sell their stories, and goodness only knows what the content of those might be (which was my 'necking bottles' comment...not what I think of her personally but because that's how outrageously fabricated these things can get), it's the potential of what they could escalate into. Because people's stories then get embellished by the press, how many times do we hear people say 'that is not what I said at all' once their account gets published? In the previous WS #Thread 14 a member told of the photo in the next morning's paper being of NB basically partying holding a big glass of wine to the camera. That's not sensitive, that's enhancing and basically giving credit to the idea that she is a drinker. One might find the odd picture of me with a drink in hand but it's probably the only one I'll have had in a whole year. So a newspaper selecting that particular photo following an announcement by LE intimating NB has alcohol issues is a totally inappropriate one for my money

I didn’t like that picture choice but the words were very sensitive In all the papers I read and on TV. And the photo was posed by Nicola and Paul at some stage, not photoshopped. If someone raided my photos they would find plenty of me drinking and possibly some under the table.

 

[Cluella DeVille]

I agree completely with this. In fact, I have never seen this level of disclosure of personal health issues given out by LE during an investigation like this ever here in N. America! With the family's ok or not! There was no need for it! Not right IMO.

I believe it's an unprecedented event too for LE to announce such issues here in the UK too. Certainly I can't immediately recall equivalent information ever having previously been exposed during an investigation....possibly something that may come out in a court case or, as someone else mentioned here, an inquest.
Amongst many other voices expressing their reactions, there are a lot of high profile organisations, lawyers and politicians wading in on it with horror so it does seem the police are being asked to substantiate their actions and held to account for the extreme sensitivity of their disclosures

 

[cottonweaver]

Very good points. So in fact, any story that might (or might not) have come out may not have directly concerned the information about NB's drinking/hormone levels at all...

That makes a lot of sense, both because I can't see how anyone outside the family would've had access to such intimate medical information, and because it appears the press would not have been allowed to publish it anyway.

what would be the sanction though?
Most papers don't care if they are sued, they keep a war chest for litigation.

ETA
tbc on war chests, I mean, allocation of specific monies set aside each year as part of the budget to cover the inevitable law suits

 

[ayrshireguy]

I can't remember now Betsy - I'd have to go check it again

But iirc we all knew on WS that something about the case was HIGH risk ( even if they never used those words) just from the police response that it was being treated as such ( full scale starts c Jan 30th with helicopters, drones, dogs, divers, land searches etc etc, first divers and immediate land search started on 27th)

This is why WS members had been posting the classification tables for a couple of weeks.

Missing persons | College of Policing

This page is from APP, the official source of professional practice for policing.

www.college.police.uk

View attachment 403449

Yep, it was clear to many that this was high risk from the get-go.

I remember people saying that this was more than just your 'normal' missing person case with the fact that national news was reporting it and the police response.

 

[JennieM]

We still don’t know who “the family” are who are saying this - is it her mum, dad, sister, Paul speaking in unison or just one or some of them. It would potentially change perspective knowing that.

You are right. I always assumed it was her parents, sister and PA talking in unison.

The statement released yesterday ends with:

Nikki is such a wonderful daughter, sister , partner and mother and is missed dearly - we all need you back in our lives

Lancashire Constabulary - Nicola Bulley - family statement

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

www.lancashire.police.uk

 

[Mr X]

Very good points. So in fact, any story that might (or might not) have come out may not have directly concerned the information about NB's drinking/hormone levels at all...

That makes a lot of sense, both because I can't see how anyone outside the family would've had access to such intimate medical information, and because it appears the press would not have been allowed to publish it anyway.

If she has a trusted partner they would presumably know about this sort of thing so would be able to do a tipoff to the press with the details in order to perhaps divert attention from what is actually happening.

 

[JennieM]

what would be the sanction though?
Most papers don't care if they are sued, they keep a war chest for litigation.

Especially the Mail...

 

[Wishingwell]

Poor Nicola’s case is so odd, nearly every interaction with anyone involved seems a bit odd. JMO
Maybe it’s like a region behavioural thing, like accents, that I just don’t get.
Is all so odd.
Feels like you can make excuses for all the oddness but there’s just loads of it. I don’t know what’s going on!

I’m in Lancashire and near to this area. I can confirm that the Lancashire accent can vary from one town to the next. So much so that even I sometimes struggle to understand