Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #3

[Taskforce88]

Does the tracking app say how long NBs morning walk by the river would normally take? Was it a brisk walk around the path or did she stop to let the dog run around, chase a ball, etc?

 

[jackal67]

Why is me stating Willow is a cocker casting aspertions??

I wasn't aiming it at you?

 

[todders]

Does the tracking app say how long NBs morning walk by the river would normally take? Was it a brisk walk around the path or did she stop to let the dog run around, chase a ball, etc?

Inside 45 minutes before Nicola Bulley vanished on her favourite path
31 mins as indicated from strata on above link

 

[supersleuth123]

Here are a few of my observations from the photography I shared

1. If NB is believed to have (first) arrived at the bench at 8.46 (source: police), then seen in the lower field at 8.50, then seen exiting the lower field "along the river path", it implies she is walking anti-clockwise around the fields (IMO)

2. She is then seen in the Upper Field, almost precisely here, at about 9.10 although the timings aren't certain. To me, 20 minutes from leaving the Lower Field to that point in the Upper Field is slightly too long if she's walking normally. It would however make sense for her to stop at the bench, after exiting the lower field, to send the text that she sent (at 8.57) and dial into the call at 9.01am. If she dialed in, then set off to the upper field, it does seem right that she'd be seen at 9.10.

3. Let's assume whatever happened, happened by 9.30, otherwise she probably would have disconnected at the end of the Teams call. So basically, it can be assumed that she continued her walk, anti-clockwise around the upper field. Getting to this point (right next to where Rowanwater access road meets the field, behind the fence), and then this point (where Rowanwater properties back on to the field)

Either, something happened in that 20 minutes and she never arrived at the bench again, or she successfully rounded the field, and arrived back at the bench at some point between about 9.20 and 9.30 (this is me assuming it takes at least 10 minutes to complete the loop).

Another dog walker supposedly finds Willow and NB's phone at the bench at 9.35.

We have the following options:

1. NB gets back to the bench by 9.20 (realistic earliest time given size of the loop, IMO), and has "an event" that has rendered her unseeable/unhearable by the dog walker who arrives 15 minutes later. Implies going into the water accidentally (while leaving her phone on the bench, still connected to the call) and succumbing (cold water shock?) extremely quickly.

2. Something happened on the loop, between 9.10 and 9.35, and someone was able to return her phone and Willow to the bench in about 20 or so minutes.

To me, the accident is the most likely, but neither are totally impossible. The reason the accident is most likely is well, partly it just is (unfortunately dog-related water accidents aren't that rare), but also that I find it quite hard to believe that Willow would stay "running loose" by the bench if placed there without NB.

JMO

 

[Notascreenname]

Moo I think sooner or later the police will have to release some more information. Whilst I think we all appreciate that some information may need to be kept back, if there is a chance of her being found alive, or even if a body could be found, they need to give the public more to go on. Jmo

 

[ginnyw]

I was just out walking by my local river and thinking about it all. Lots of happy dogs with happy owners. It's not as sheltered here as where NB went missing and I think that if somebody went in the water they'd be seen right away and helped. It's so sad and so strange. Let's hope today is the day when there is a really significant development.

 

[Themac101]

Tidal river so in this case yes

Its not tidal above the weir but yes, it was very slow flowing and low last Friday.

 

[Sandyuk]

Have I got this right? At the 9.10am sighting NB was already on the Teams meeting call and was on her way back to the starting point? By the time she got to the bench she been on the call and been walking Willow for 30mins without incident. It would mean she’d already past the bench at the beginning of the walk and again on the way back. Is the abandoned house that PA searched on that stretch of the walk where the 9.10am sighting was?

 

[Cranky]

Something made we wonder about a possible split this morning. It was something that her father said and I think it's been queried before on this site. The quote is from Nicola Bulley made plans for the future night before she vanished and the specific quote is

"We took them home, Nicola had had a meeting with her boss in Garstang and she said can you stay a bit later because I have an important client coming in on Zoom. We said no problem and stayed. She had done her work and she was very upbeat about getting her mortgage sorted.

"Her mortgage". Not their mortgage, not her friend's or client's mortgage but her mortgage. I could be reading too much into this but when my husband was alive even though our mortgage was in his name only we still referred to it as "our" mortgage. It struck me as odd at the time MOO

 

[Blurhf]

The moon determines the speed flow of a river? Well I never.

Yes, it would. (Studied Geography at degree/masters level and fairly familiar with the general area)

When the moon's gravitational pull is at its highest (full moon & new moon, due to its alignment with earth and the sun), the ocean bulges out more where it's nearest to the moon. This is the highest high tide, and the highest high tide (spring tide) is associated with the lowest low tide; they happen within the same 24 hour (maybe 25 hour) period. The big difference in water level compared with the quarter moons (when it's the lowest high tide and highest low tide, neap tides) means that more water drains in the same amount of time, so drains faster. There are also differences in water flow due to weather etc.

A week ago today, it was low tide at 9:30 in Fleetwood, where the Wyre meets the sea.

There hadn't been a notable amount of rain in the area over the days leading up to Friday, in fact it was generally dry. The river is tidal downstream of the Weir, which is right in the vicinity.

Despite this, I still think that cold water shock, pockets of deep water and debris, plants, murkiness, black clothing etc wouldn't rule out drowning - MOO

edited due to my confusion re. Spring & neap tides

 

[jackal67]

You put my comment?

No I didn't .I was talking generally about the comments regarding PA interview. Unless I accidentally quoted you in which case I apoligise

 

[MrsWatson]

Link explaining the effect of the moon on tides.

Tides - NASA Science

The Moon's gravitational pull plays a huge role in the formation of tides. Tides are a cycle of small changes in the distribution of Earth's oceans.

moon.nasa.gov

 

[content_calling]

Here are a few of my observations from the photography I shared

1. If NB is believed to have (first) arrived at the bench at 8.46 (source: police), then seen in the lower field at 8.50, then seen exiting the lower field "along the river path", it implies she is walking anti-clockwise around the fields (IMO)

2. She is then seen in the Upper Field, almost precisely here, at about 9.10 although the timings aren't certain. To me, 20 minutes from leaving the Lower Field to that point in the Upper Field is slightly too long if she's walking normally. It would however make sense for her to stop at the bench, after exiting the lower field, to send the text that she sent (at 8.57) and dial into the call at 9.01am. If she dialed in, then set off to the upper field, it does seem right that she'd be seen at 9.10.

3. Let's assume whatever happened, happened by 9.30, otherwise she probably would have disconnected at the end of the Teams call. So basically, it can be assumed that she continued her walk, anti-clockwise around the upper field. Getting to this point (right next to where Rowanwater access road meets the field, behind the fence), and then this point (where Rowanwater properties back on to the field)

Either, something happened in that 20 minutes and she never arrived at the bench again, or she successfully rounded the field, and arrived back at the bench at some point between about 9.20 and 9.30 (this is me assuming it takes at least 10 minutes to complete the loop).

Another dog walker supposedly finds Willow and NB's phone at the bench at 9.35.

We have the following options:

1. NB gets back to the bench by 9.20 (realistic earliest time given size of the loop, IMO), and has "an event" that has rendered her unseeable/unhearable by the dog walker who arrives 15 minutes later. Implies going into the water accidentally (while leaving her phone on the bench, still connected to the call) and succumbing (cold water shock?) extremely quickly.

2. Something happened on the loop, between 9.10 and 9.35, and someone was able to return her phone and Willow to the bench in about 20 or so minutes.

To me, the accident is the most likely, but neither are totally impossible. The reason the accident is most likely is well, partly it just is (unfortunately dog-related water accidents aren't that rare), but also that I find it quite hard to believe that Willow would stay "running loose" by the bench if placed there without NB.

JMO

Im with you here, the only thing that throws everything is the phone isnt accidentally placed on a bench. If shes on a call surely she would have it in her hand to listen in.. The question is did Nicola leave the phone on the Bench or was it placed there by someone else ?

 

[supersleuth123]

Have I got this right? At the 9.10am sighting NB was already on the Teams meeting call and was on her way back to the starting point? By the time she got to the bench she been on the call and been walking Willow for 30mins without incident. It would mean she’d already past the bench at the beginning of the walk and again on the way back. Is the abandoned house that PA searched on that stretch of the walk where the 9.10am sighting was?

This is the almost exact location of the 9.10am sighting, if the Police's map here is correct.

 

[J-rock]

Something made we wonder about a possible split this morning. It was something that her father said and I think it;s been queried before on this site. The quote is from Nicola Bulley made plans for the future night before she vanished and the specific quote is

"We took them home, Nicola had had a meeting with her boss in Garstang and she said can you stay a bit later because I have an important client coming in on Zoom. We said no problem and stayed. She had done her work and she was very upbeat about getting her mortgage sorted.

"Her mortgage". Not their mortgage, not her friend's or client's mortgage but her mortgage. I could be reading too much into this but when my husband was alive even though our mortgage was in his name only we still referred to it as "our" mortgage. It struck me as odd at the time MOO

Given the nature of her work, I took this to mean she was happy about securing a mortgage for someone else, possibly a friend or just a customer who she likes. Her dad probably wasn’t thinking too hard about his choice of words at this time, which is most understandable. I wouldn’t personally read anything into this.

 

[DetectiveLawless]

Given the nature of her work, I took this to mean she was happy about securing a mortgage for someone else, possibly a friend or just a customer who she likes. Her dad probably wasn’t thinking too hard about his choice of words at this time, which is most understandable. I wouldn’t personally read anything into this.

This is how I interpreted it too.

 

[BaronessWombat]

For those of you wondering about the (Private) Grammar school event, and the shared OFSTED report of another secondary school on NBs Facebook, they are irrelevant as the children don't attend either one. The private school presumably invited local state primary school pupils to come and meet an author on their site, and the older child is approching secondary school age which is why they are looking at secondary schools, IMO.

 

[msmarple99]

I suppose it will all become clearer later, but PA’s responses seemed strange and impersonal. Maybe he is exhausted and in shock, but he almost mirrored some of Nicola’s sister’s comments such as ‘she’s vanished into thin air’. He also mentioned himself a lot and how he was coping or not coping. Never mentioned the girls were just wanting their mum home and he didn’t mention Nicola by name either, and that he loves and misses her. Maybe he’s just a private chap, I don’t know. Guess the experts will make some comments about it. I hope Nicola is found soon.

He looks exhausted,I think he was very nervous

 

[dharmasarc]

Im with you here, the only thing that throws everything is the phone isnt accidentally placed on a bench. If shes on a call surely she would have it in her hand to listen in.. The question is did Nicola leave the phone on the Bench or was it placed there by someone else ?

You would leave the phone on the bench if for some reason you jumped up to get something in a rush or you felt it was safe to leave and had your AirPods in. I do it frequently. Best guess is she places the phone down to head towards the river bank and then falls in and is swept by the current. It’s around 3.6m/s.

 

[DanceCard]

It's a fair rule, although if I was going to be really pedantic I'd say that one doesn't always know who the victim is during this stage of any case (other than the missing lady herself, of course). I think that 'innocent until proven guilty' is a good rule to adhere to in any case.

It's entirely up to the site owner what rules they make for their own site and how they define who is a victim.
The rules of the site need to be respected, otherwise we risk seeing the thread being closed. It's clear from reading the posts in this thread that the mods have already had to do a lot of work tidying up posts.

This is a C&P of the rules about Victim Blaming:

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This does not mean, however, that statements made by family members and other third parties cannot come into discussion as the facts of the case are reported in the media. Members may reasonably discuss what is said in MSM by them or about them, but do not make random accusations, insinuations, suggest their involvement, trash, bash or attack them, or speculate negatively about them.


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