Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #6

[LuluR38]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed>

Nicola Bulley was 'laughing and joking' just minutes before she vanished

"They say she was laughing and joking with them as she went by"

www.lancs.live

 

[Tanzanite]

This has been covered before but faking a river search with all the associated costs, diversion of police time and potential risk to divers seems unlikely.

There is no suggestion in my post that the river search is a 'fake' at all.

The river search would always be absolutely essential.

I was addressing the theory that LE are trying to reel in a 3rd party with their public announcement that NB entered the water and how this intervention might impact it.

 

[justicepeace]

Has he not also said that he doesn’t believe she’s in the river? I can’t find the link to his earlier interview to confirm it, so JMO

He did previously on many interviews with sky news, he now believes she is.

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[infinit]

Here, here. It’s almost like some people want foul play.

Also, what happens to commons sense? I’ve read 100 times questions about the cordon and falling into a river. Clearly, the area was searched. No need for further cordon.

People fall. I live by a canal. It has a flat and even towpath - and people fall in, and some of them drown.

And finally. Peter (search guy), there is no ‘I’ in ‘Team’.

I'm not sure what people expect, there to be full on forensics in the first hours of someone being reported missing with no evidence of a crime? Forensics are a very finite resource and lots of people get reported missing, most who turn up fairly soon.

JMO.

 

[pineapple23]

SGI and Peter work with the police and are the official police marine search team in southeast England.

He might have been given additional information by the police - i.e. Fitbit data - to suggest a river incident.

He might also have been told of the full extent of any forensic or digital investigations, leads/possible suspects ruled out etc etc

 

[Belleville]

He did previously on many interviews with sky news, he now believes she is.

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"From the evidence we've got at the moment" they've found something or police have fitbit data or clothing. She's definitely in there. Just a waiting game now.

 

[3point5]

He might also have been told of the full extent of any forensic or digital investigations, leads/possible suspects ruled out etc etc

Surely he should be more profesional in the lead up? He works with police regularly, he must know that the police wouldn't be announcing everything to the public (which he was part of until this AM).

 

[Beginnersleuth]

He might also have been told of the full extent of any forensic or digital investigations, leads/possible suspects ruled out etc etc

Or just seen the topography of the river bed & other environmental factors and readjusted his assessment. Might be murkier or sludgier than expected
IMO

 

[GeorgeFormby]

OK, so the thinking is that if you did this X number of times you'd get X number of paths, meaning it would be of no value?

Its how much value versus how much effort though, and whether proper scientific rigor can be applied (I don't think it can, its impossible to dial out all of the variables). Somebody has to sign this off, and if its all a bit woolly, its not going to happen.

 

[Themac101]

Yeah, I saw that. Given the sharp bend at this point it's not surprising it's deeper, but 15ft is deep especially considering the width. Wouldn't rivers like this generally erode into the bank rather than down? Or maybe it's just an anomaly.

Absolutely, its not 16ft.

 

[ginnyw]

"From the evidence we've got at the moment" they've found something or police have fitbit data or clothing. She's definitely in there. Just a waiting game now.

Unless he meant from the evidence they HAVEN'T got at the moment. It's hard to keep up with the changes!

 

[WestLondoner]

I feel the reason that people are challenging police on this being a fall in the river is because they announced this very early on and following that announcement, they were still looking for witnesses and dash cam / doorbell cam footage.

AIUI they want this to be sure that NB didn't leave the river bank via some other route, so they'd be looking for footage of her, rather than of suspicious characters.

The dog hanging around the bench is perhaps significant in one way. Dogs like being taken for walks because they like to run in a pack. A walker plus themselves makes a pack. A pack of two, you and your dog, is fine by your dog. That's more than one, so still a pack (dogs can sort of count). If the pack then moves off, they'll follow it, i.e. you. If they're separated from the pack, they'll follow it by scent and sound. They can smell for ten miles and hear for a couple of miles.

The dog was likely where it was because it was trying to pick up where her scent went from that spot. If she had been led or taken away, the dog would have followed as far as it could.

 

[Wishingwell]

Or just seen the topography of the river bed & other environmental factors and readjusted his assessment. Might be murkier or sludgier than expected
IMO

Yes I agree. It is murky, and going further down to estuary it’s marshy, muddy and sinking sand.

 

[Themac101]

Just to add a bit of local knowledge. The bottom of the Wyre is sandy silty mud. There are some really treacherous parts with sinking sand on the estuary. I lived a bit downstream of St Michaels near the Wyre and you can see the mud at low tide. I don’t have recent or in depth knowledge of the St Michaels section above the weir but if the river bed is similar there too I can imagine it really sucking you down if you tried to push yourself up…

The substrate will not be the same up there as it is in the estuary. The silt gets deposited there.

 

[WhoIsThatGuy]

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New update from Peter faulding he believes with the evidence he’s got at the moment that she’s in the river, and there doesn’t seem to be a 3rd party involvement. Just thought I would share.

Ergh he was annoying me before with his interviews, and now funnily enough he has all the information working WITH the police not publically shaming their efforts. Suddenly he aligned with their hypothesis.

wow!

yesterday, before he got the go-ahead to get involved:

Bulley 'is not in the river at all' and adds: “None of this rings right to me"

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and also "I don't know how the police can say there's no evidence of third-party involvement in this disappearance when they haven't actually checked."

"Something's not right" - Private diving expert brought in to search for missing Nicola Bulley admits it's unlikely she is in the river, but says if she is, he will "find her in minutes". - Friends of missing mother-of-2 hope private diving team find 'nothing'

JMO but if this guy wants to help or has the technology to, all well and good, get in the river mate or get your toys working down there and see what you can find to help. Apart from that, keep your mouth shut. What you are saying contradicts itself and cannot exist in the same breath. One minute you are saying your support Manchester United and one minutes you are saying you support Manchester City. (Analogy)

 

[infinit]

Yes I agree. It is murky, and going further down to estuary it’s marshy, muddy and sinking sand.

I wonder how far it's possible she could have travelled by now if she has not got caught somewhere and remained in place. Is it even possible she's out to sea?

 

[wackyw]

Theres likely to be three options , abduction, unlikely because from what has been gathered there are no reports of any suspicious characters around and no evidence to back this up, up and did a runner, seems unlikely leaving falling in the river, if this is the case then it would be a poor show if every effort was not made to follow this through.

I think there's also a "pushed in the river" option, might only take a minute or so longer than the falling in the river scenario. I'm not talking of a big build up or scuffle, just a quick escalation of some minor confrontation that resulted in a push that resulted in an "off-balance trying to stay upright" stumble type of thing. If that person had not entered the area by car then they wouldn't need to leave it by car either and might open the exit routes/timeline much further. No evidence of it of course, but then that's no diff to any of the others. I still think simply falling is many, many times more likely though.

 

[WestLondoner]

I wonder how far it's possible she could have travelled by now if she has not got caught somewhere and remained in place. Is it even possible she's out to sea?

It must be. There is, what, 14km of river between where she was last seen and the sea? For her to have reached the sea by now, she'd only have to have moved at about a metre per minute.

 

[JeremyBentham]

Given standard conditions of a river and that type of river flow how far could a body travel in the water, assuming it never got caught up in anything along the way, after 10 days?

EDIT: Just seen this posted above too.

 

[supersleuth123]

Situation is near-impossible for LP now. They haven't given a presser since last week, so they'll be feeling pressure to do so. But as it stands they still nothing. So it would be more of the same (this is our main hypothesis...), but even further skepticism from the viewing public. Of course, they have to give an update soon though. They must be absolutely desperate for a break. If NB isn't found in the river in I would say ~48hrs, IMO, LP is in a real spot of bother. At some point, of course, they'll need to ramp down search efforts (they cannot continue at this intensity in the river indefinitely, IMO)