Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

[Deleted member 320164]

This statement is from a villager who heard it second hand. Police statement confirms phone was on the bench. There was confusion from her statement around 5mins in as she corrected herself but I think she meant the phone had already been seen on the bench at 9.20 so already 'found' but it was left there and then 'found again' at 9.33 by the person who found the dog. Phone on the bench, harness on ground between bench and river.
Video of police statement from 2 days ago in link
https://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/...arance-and-appeal-for-dashcam-footage-4014687

She did hear it second hand, on the other hand it‘s more specific as to who and where than the vague police language - which as I and many others have noted never said “the phone was found on the bench by x”.

That may be the case but it needs clarifying.

 

[Mr X]

Apparently the last spring tide was 24th of January on the river Wyre at Poulton Le Fylde.

Tide Times and Tide Chart for Poulton le Fylde​

https://www.tide-forecast.com › locations › tides › latest

Tide Times and Tide Chart for Poulton le Fylde

Poulton le Fylde tide times and tide charts showing high tide and low tide heights and accurate times out to 30 days.

www.tide-forecast.com

Last Spring High Tide at Poulton le Fylde was on Tue 24 Jan (height: 9.76m 32.0ft). Next high Spring Tide at Poulton le Fylde will be on Wed 08 Feb (height: 8.78m 28.8ft).


(google search result)

So does this come over the weir? That seems to be a critical detail as 27th January would probably still be reasonably high on the cycle although not as high as the big one on the 24th. If the tide tomorrow comes over the weir then it seems plausible that it came over on the 27th making the river behave in a different way ie flow opposite to its normal movement and perhaps with more current.


Taking the next spring tide which is tomorrow and predicted to be 8.95m, 3 days later it is 600mm lower so if there was a 9.76m tide on the 24th perhaps it was around 9.2m on the 27th. Quite high then.

All MOO obviously.

 

[mrjitty]

Fitbit wearers - are you usually always wearing them or like me an Apple Watch wearer a bit less frequent. If so do you keep a regular synching? Just wondered why it was last updated three days before going missing and if this is perfectly reasonable as a wearer?

I use autosync with Garmin but i can say as a heavy user I wouldn't bother tracking an activity like this. When i tracked walking activities (like NB apparently did with Strava) it would only be for a serious walk.

Also, from personal experience, some people are only interested in some of the data live reads from the wrist (e.g step count) so they use the device and are not overly bothered with the app.

So I believe it is perfectly reasonable not to sync. As far as I know, my partner never syncs her basic garmin device

 

[markoid]

SP PF says he's baffled about her disappearance - which suggests to me that LE have ruled out NB leaving the field area on foot. Potentially also ruling out any other people being in the area at that time. Which would also explain why they are so adamant she is in the river. Looking at other accidental drownings across the internet, it's clear that even the most comprehensive and lengthy searches can miss a body or take some extended time to find one. Hoping the answers come sooner rather than later.

 

[JeremyBentham]

How would it benefit an assailant / abductor, who wants to avoid being seen by witnesses, to place the phone as a decoy near the bench? Wouldn't it raise rather than reduce his chances of being caught? (It's not as if NB wasn't in the area at all.)

Yeah. I'm not sure I buy the whole decoy theory. I'd more believe it just fell from her hands/pocket, either in an abduction or due to some medical reason, in which maybe she stumbled down to the river's edge, or further along to try and get help for herself and fell in somewhere in the area they're searching now. Maybe she managed to get through the gate to get to the nearest help point. The dog didn't follow as couldn't get through the gate on its own.

 

[I wonder]

I don’t recall a case with such a mess with regards to timings, witnesses, where the phone, dog, harness lead is etc. Particularly when that info has been told to the public. Many don’t even really believe there’s merely a 10 minute window in which whatever happened to Nicola, took place. It’s wrapping us in knots and must be frustrating for the family.

Either the police need better training in this area, or could this possibly be contradictory and vague for a specific reason? If anyone else is involved, they must be feeling very clever at the moment. It looks like no-one has a clue what’s happened. But behind the scenes the police have gathered masses amounts of info. Cases are as much about ruling things out. That’s why an accurate search of the river is so important. I just hope the police and this search guy are right in their belief that Nicola hasn’t reached the sea, because unless she’s found in the river, we won’t ever really know this, for certain.

 

[Venoose]

Fitbit wearers - are you usually always wearing them or like me an Apple Watch wearer a bit less frequent. If so do you keep a regular synching? Just wondered why it was last updated three days before going missing and if this is perfectly reasonable as a wearer?

I wear my Fitbit 24/7 but I only open the app to sync it when I’ve done a specific exercise session. My particular model, the Charge 5, no longer has the option to sync automatically, you have to do it manually. I used to check the app all the time when I first bought it but I guess the novelty wears off after a bit.

 

[Blamhappy]

Why would a dog follow someone?

Apologies. I meant follow the abductor taking Nicola.

 

[markoid]

I use autosync with Garmin but i can say as a heavy user I wouldn't bother tracking an activity like this. When i tracked walking activities (like NB apparently did with Strava) it would only be for a serious walk.

Also, from personal experience, some people are only interested in some of the data live reads from the wrist (e.g step count) so they use the device and are not overly bothered with the app.

So I believe it is perfectly reasonable not to sync. As far as I know, my partner never syncs her basic garmin device

There was a news article that stated the LE could use third party apps to gather Fitbit data. I was wondering if the apps could force push the data within a certain range - but if that was the case then they'd have a rough idea of her whereabouts. Although, I am unsure as to the actual capability of the third party apps...

 

[mrjitty]

Yes I was disappointed with MWT on MM case & the tia sharp case, he was interviewing the guy ( suspect Stuart hazel ) in his house & tia sharpe was dead & hidden in that small house & had been for 10 days unbeknown to him or police, yet he sat in it with a film crew, although it had been searched previously by police & there was police in & out every day but apparently the stench of the decomposing body was so bad the next morning after the interview it was beyond doubt she was in there, all those professionals missed it, she was in the loft that had already been searched by police, I not sure which is the NF case you are referring to, there's so many cases

MWT's interview with Pistorius was the end of the road for me. He wasn't across basic evidence.

 

[pineapple23]

No, it was known to be in the area of the bench at 9:20 not physically seen on the bench. This has been gone over multiple times

I took a break and accidentally rejoined one of the older discussions. Took a while for me to realise!

 

[EvaP]

The harness could possibly have been left by Nicola at the bench when she first entered the field. No point carrying it around when she knows she’ll be passing back half an hour later IMO

As a dog walker I wouldn’t do that as you’d be left with no means to get a dog back across a busy road if pinched

 

[DFR3217]

There's a risk of people saying this, but the thing is, their working hypothesis is the one likeliest to be right. There is no evidence of any kind of assault or attacker. The best argument for there being one is if the river search comes up empty, which is kind of circular.

The problem is though there aren't really many options. She is either in the river, left of her own free will, or was abducted, and unless we're going to start exploring the possibility of alien abduction, that abduction must have been by another human being. So though it may be a circular argument that if she's not in the river she may have been abducted, what other conclusion can possibly be reached, given the limited options?

 

[JimmyBets]

Compare this with the probability of being abducted while walking a dog, and the phone connected to a Teams call being left behind, and the dog not following the abductor. Which has a higher chance?

Absolutely.....shall we try and do the maths ??

 

[Scotsleuth]

Yes. It's quite a bit of time that passed before anyone was alerted.

Her partner knew she was dropping kids off just before 9. They both frequently WFH and both are known to do school drop off/ dog walk so presumably they arranged she would do that day as she had the teams meeting she could listen in to. So if she's planned to listen to call then walk all the way back to the car what time would he have been expecting her? Not sure of walk time back to car/drive to home if anyone has that info? So this is pure guess work but half an hour walk back to car after call + 15 min drive and that would be 10.15 already so even if he was expecting her straight back she was only about half an hour late by time alarm was raised. <modsnip: not victim friendly>

 

[brownbeef1975]

Hi all, This is my first time posting and I'm totally in awe of everyone's sleuthing skills! I've been trying to keep up with the fast moving threads and don't think this has been covered previously...apologies if it has!

JMO MOO....What if NB was sitting on the bench at around 9.20am, listening to her Teams call with her phone on the bench and air pods in. Willow off lead still from the walk around lower/upper fields, investigating everything and potentially being momentarily out of view.

Suddenly NB glances up and sees someone who appears to be approaching Willow with threatening intent (I'm thinking about the 'dogs on leads' sign and somebody who was angered by seeing an offlead pooch). NB jumps up, leaving her phone on the bench, grabs the harness (and lead?) and rushes towards the riverbank to go to Willow's defence.

She approaches her dog and the person, and stands between them to protect Willow from whatever this person might be threatening. Willow is understandably confused and agitated by what is happening and perhaps cross words are exchanged between the person and NB.

NB attempts to hurriedly attach Willow's harness but in doing so accidentally steps backwards, loses her balance and goes cleanly into the river. The other person is shocked and stunned - they have unintentionally caused this - but does nothing as they believe NB will climb back out fairly easily. In the meantime - still annoyed that she is off lead - they grab Willow and tie her to the bench by means of her collar and lead before departing the scene....all MOO.

Do we know what type of lead Willow had that day? A retractable or just a normal one? Also, did she have a collar which remained on, so a lead (to attach her to the bench) could easily be attached to this without need to put her harness back on? Thinking about the person who- JMO - 'found' Willow and tied her to the bench....MOO

Like everyone else I'm so invested in this terrible puzzle and just hope that for the sake of NB's family and friends, she will soon be found.

you may find yourself foul of the rules of posting as I don't think you are permitted to sleuth or cast aspersions on a witness. A quick edit to remove the direct reference to the witness may help.

 

[Rawler23]

I don't know whether she went in the water or not, but what I do know from having covered a good half dozen cases on here where water was the obvious location for the misper in question, despite numerous and extensive river searches, the body was not found within that early period. However, they were eventually recovered not too far distant, but not for many weeks after. So I am holding my own on whether or not that is where she will be found. I think the water search needs extending.

 

[EvaP]

Hi all, This is my first time posting and I'm totally in awe of everyone's sleuthing skills! I've been trying to keep up with the fast moving threads and don't think this has been covered previously...apologies if it has!

JMO MOO....What if NB was sitting on the bench at around 9.20am, listening to her Teams call with her phone on the bench and air pods in. Willow off lead still from the walk around lower/upper fields, investigating everything and potentially being momentarily out of view.

Suddenly NB glances up and sees someone who appears to be approaching Willow with threatening intent (I'm thinking about the 'dogs on leads' sign and somebody who was angered by seeing an offlead pooch). NB jumps up, leaving her phone on the bench, grabs the harness (and lead?) and rushes towards the riverbank to go to Willow's defence.

Seems a very logical scenario

 

[Firstsnow4]

Behavioural panel discusses the case.

Worth a watch.

Very interesting

 

[russeverton]

How would it benefit an assailant / abductor, who wants to avoid being seen by witnesses, to place the phone as a decoy near the bench? Wouldn't it raise rather than reduce his chances of being caught? (It's not as if NB wasn't in the area at all.)

Well yes because there looking in the river thinking she fell in when it's looking like shes not in there