Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #7

[Mycroft42]

I don’t recall a case with such a mess with regards to timings, witnesses, where the phone, dog, harness lead is etc. Particularly when that info has been told to the public. Many don’t even really believe there’s merely a 10 minute window in which whatever happened to Nicola, took place. It’s wrapping us in knots and must be frustrating for the family.

Either the police need better training in this area, or could this possibly be contradictory and vague for a specific reason? If anyone else is involved, they must be feeling very clever at the moment. It looks like no-one has a clue what’s happened. But behind the scenes the police have gathered masses amounts of info. Cases are as much about ruling things out. That’s why an accurate search of the river is so important. I just hope the police and this search guy are right in their belief that Nicola hasn’t reached the sea, because unless she’s found in the river, we won’t ever really know this, for certain.

Also, PF is doing a fantastic job of distracting the media. Is this intentional by the police I wonder?

I fail to see why, if they have evidence/proof of her being in the river, they wouldn't release and stop all the speculation - unless they don't and are trying to persue other lines of investigation out of the media spot light.

 

[WestLondoner]

Apologies. I meant follow the abductor taking Nicola.

Why would the dog follow anyone other than its owner, though? That's just not what dogs do. They don't observe situations and make deductive inferences. Typically, if they can't smell it, it's not happening. They also typically don't accept food or anything else from strangers - indeed the dogs I've had wouldn't even accept it from me without smelling it first. If you try to approach a dog, unless it's congenitally over-friendly and dim it will tend to draw away from you; you're in its personal space and it doesn't know you (I'm the same on public transport).

All we can really infer from the dog is that it was probably observed near where NB last was.

 

[I wonder]

So in a back yard, outbuilding, shed etc where someone could have thrown evidence away or hidden something - but there is no purpose to searching occupied residences.

I’ve lost count of the number of people who have gone missing and are found in an occupied property, be it alive or dead. Searches aren’t limited to a search for bodies either. The police look for evidence of a struggle, blood, anything to suggest a victim is or has been in a property.

If police only searched garden sheds, the murder rate would be phenomenal and we wouldn’t have a shortage of police officers. Getting paid to search sheds? Yes, please.

 

[sunflowermomma]

I genuinely find the idea that someone falls into a river on a freezing cold day while walking strange and oddly far fetched.
If the dog was wet then maybe I could imagine a scenario, because perhaps something has happened with the dog that had caused her to go near the river.
To be going for a walk in winters clothes, on a cold day and think you were close enough to fall into a river is baffling.
Stranger things have happened no doubt. JMO

I agree. I grew up in a very similar climate with similar waterways and parks (PNW). Just out of curiosity, I searched my local newspaper archives online and there are no cases since they started publishing online of someone falling in our similar river through a popular park, just stories about people falling off cliffs/hiking trails.

 

[San111]

So given the evidence we have, quote, "no trace of her" increases the chance she fell over AND fell into the river etc etc?
Does the same evidence not also increase the probability of other outcomes ?

Yes well your probabilities are fair on the morning of the walk before anything happened. But we can rule out the situation where she returns home safely which would be >99.9% of the time so suddenly the chances of her entering the river or a 3rd party being involved become much higher as it's conditional probability. I agree that the chances of that happening are so low but then you have to work out the alternatives that could have happened and they are equally as low (albeit extremely higher than they were before the walk took place). We can even add the dog being dry which is another low probability event if she entered the water.

 

[cottonweaver]

Whilst we go round in circles, I’ve been trying to work out the probability of NB being in the river by way of an accident.
So, given the only facts we know in that NB is a regular Walker of this route and that she can swim.

% chance of falling over whilst walking 1 in 1000 (0.001%)
% chance of falling over AND entering the river 1 in 2000 (0.0005%)
% chance of survival IF entering the water 1 in 2 (50%j
% chance of not been visible after entering the water or the event being witnessed by another human 3 in 4 (75%)
% chance of not being located in the river after 10 days (50%)

so for us to be where we are now, and assuming now foul play, you need to multiply each of the above % chances of occuring.
Accidentaly falling into the river absolutely could have happene. I just wanted to think of it in terms of probabilit.

Dog walkers….please don’t say that you ALWAYS stumble when out walking or that you OFTEN trip up. You remember the trips but not all the walks with no incident at all.
if you have had a fall, put it into context of how many times you’ve walked your dog.

Uk's collected data on every year's drownings in rivers ( based on running, walking near river and on animal rescue) since they started to compile records shows that the instances are increasing

Accidental drowning due to walking near or running near a river is higher than rescuing pet.


Old post will take you to the data for each year UK - UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #4

• "Inland open waters, such as rivers, canals,lakes, reservoirs and quarries continue to be the leading locations with 58% of deaths (N=139). ( leading cause of all water-related deaths)
• Almost half of (43%) people had no intention to enter the water, such as those walking, with causes including slips, trips and falls, being cut off by the tide, or swept in by waves (N= 107).
• Following a concerning increase in water-related deaths last year, over 50 organisations are, for the first time, issuing coordinated water safety advice for those visiting and enjoying waterways and coastlines as part of the #RespectTheWater campaign Public urged to “Respect the Water” as new statistics show drowning deaths increased last year, with more dying inland than around the coast. | National Water Safety Forum"
• At the download charts, there were 23 deaths recorded in rivers for that year, in England alone - 2021- just related to walking or running near a river.

 

[ayrshireguy]

Her partner knew she was dropping kids off just before 9. They both frequently WFH and both are known to do school drop off/ dog walk so presumably they arranged she would do that day as she had the teams meeting she could listen in to. So if she's planned to listen to call then walk all the way back to the car what time would he have been expecting her? Not sure of walk time back to car/drive to home if anyone has that info? So this is pure guess work but half an hour walk back to car after call + 15 min drive and that would be 10.15 already so even if he was expecting her straight back she was only about half an hour late by time alarm was raised. No way my husband would have noticed I was a bit late returning if he's sitting working/taking calls etc. and he certainly wouldn't be worried at that point.

Yeah, I agree with your thinking.

My point was that it was a very long time (0930-1050) from the phone being found (0930) until someone phoned the partner/police (1050).

This potentially opens up a bigger window than the 10 minutes the police are going on.

 

[Blamhappy]

Well yes because there looking in the river thinking she fell in when it's looking like shes not in there

In other cases I've followed, it's taken weeks to find bodies.

 

[justicepeace]

Her partner knew she was dropping kids off just before 9. They both frequently WFH and both are known to do school drop off/ dog walk so presumably they arranged she would do that day as she had the teams meeting she could listen in to. So if she's planned to listen to call then walk all the way back to the car what time would he have been expecting her? Not sure of walk time back to car/drive to home if anyone has that info? So this is pure guess work but half an hour walk back to car after call + 15 min drive and that would be 10.15 already so even if he was expecting her straight back she was only about half an hour late by time alarm was raised. No way my husband would have noticed I was a bit late returning if he's sitting working/taking calls etc. and he certainly wouldn't be worried at that point.

I think the poster means from finding willow/phone/harness to contacting PA/school….

Dog found at 9:35am (approx.)
Golden hour of who knows what - 9:35am (approx.) - 10:50am
PA/school contacted - 10:50am

Not forgetting these witnesses are known to NB, they aren’t total strangers walking in an area not knowing who/what to do by any stretch of any imagination.

 

[markoid]

Also, PF is doing a fantastic job of distracting the media. Is this intentional by the police I wonder?

I fail to see why, if they have evidence/proof of her being in the river, they wouldn't release and stop all the speculation - unless they don't and are trying to persue other lines of investigation out of the media spot light.

From my reading, they are convinced she hasn't left that area. Ergo - in the river.

 

[JimmyBets]

Hi - Just an observation by myself, so OMO. This is probably stating the obvious, and may have been asked already, but there appears to be a lake or pond of some sort in the caravan site. I assume this must have been searched/investigated despite the unlikelihood of it revealing anything (unless wrongdoing has occurred).

Been asking for clarification on this. Police only stated a "land search." Can only hope they have searched this pond/lake within the Rowanwater site

 

[rojo]

Why would the dog follow anyone other than its owner, though? That's just not what dogs do. They don't observe situations and make deductive inferences. Typically, if they can't smell it, it's not happening. They also typically don't accept food or anything else from strangers - indeed the dogs I've had wouldn't even accept it from me without smelling it first. If you try to approach a dog, unless it's congenitally over-friendly and dim it will tend to draw away from you; you're in its personal space and it doesn't know you (I'm the same on public transport).

All we can really infer from the dog is that it was probably observed near where NB last was.

Not the case at all

Most dogs would do anything for food. It’s their nature

 

[ginnyw]

23 deaths recorded in rivers. And 6903 kidnappings in the space of one year.

England and Wales kidnapping offences 2025| Statista

In 2024/25 there were ***** kidnapping offences recorded by the police in England and Wales, a slight decrease when compared with the previous year when there were ***** offences.

www.statista.com

 

[justicepeace]

23 deaths recorded in rivers. And 6903 kidnappings in the space of one year.

England and Wales kidnapping offences 2025| Statista

In 2024/25 there were ***** kidnapping offences recorded by the police in England and Wales, a slight decrease when compared with the previous year when there were ***** offences.

www.statista.com

Woah!

 

[SOMETHINGWILLDO]

So, Peter Faulding - the experienced diver - can't understand why he hasn't located Nicola yet, he states that often people are found not far from the waters edge - i have linked below.
IF, and its a big if, but if she's not found, where do the police go from here? Is it a case that they're focusing on the water while still working behind the scenes on other theories?*
*(you would like to assume that this is the case)


Nicola Bulley head diver asks partner if she had 'enemies or stalkers'

 

[WestLondoner]

Not the case at all

Most dogs would do anything for food. It’s their nature

No, that's just an assumption often made about dogs by people who aren't familiar with them.

 

[SOMETHINGWILLDO]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed. The following is concerning PF>

He's an experienced person in his field of work. I believe he is now giving interviews because he can't understand why she hasn't been found, if she indeed made it to the water.
I think it highlights that this isn't a firm case of "fell into water" - I think he's making that quite obvious.

 

[JeremyBentham]

If this search returns nothing, do they usually continue to search the river, in smaller resource, in case something does show up or just leave it completely and move on?

Police seem confident she is in the water. PF seems confident she's not, or will be if the search turns up no results, and there doesn't seem to be any other equipment that can yield better results.

I just wonder if she is there, but for some reason has been missed. Lodged deep in some crevice or something. But I'd expect the sonar to detect it still, maybe not.

 

[I wonder]

How would it benefit an assailant / abductor, who wants to avoid being seen by witnesses, to place the phone as a decoy near the bench? Wouldn't it raise rather than reduce his chances of being caught? (It's not as if NB wasn't in the area at all.)

What would benefit an abductor/attacker, would be the phone to be in the river, or on the bank. Also a glove in the river or on the bank, a wet dog etc. A single item of Nicola’s in or very near the river, would be fantastic for them.

 

[cottonweaver]

people were asking about the nature of the brick building they've seen in media coverage

maybe this one? ( Measuring station)

The Fishing – St. Michaels Angling Association

stmichaelsaa.co.uk