Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

[JeremyBentham]

MOO- even if NB did enter the water there is no indication that it was at the bench, it seems a likely entry point sure because of the dog and phone being there, but as there was no sign on the bank, its possible she entered further up or down (if at all of course) which could throw the search. Water, river beds, surrounding geography make it really hard to compare. Presumably the police will have access to the experts who can predict and map scenarios based on the particular stretch of river, depth/weather for the particular times etc but as a science it's still at best a calculated 'guess' rather than exact science. It does seem unlikely that as the searches commenced so quickly and due to the depth you'd assume (perhaps wrongly) that in an area such as this something in the water would be seen.

Without going back to analysing the behaviour of dogs and assuming they are all the same, I did look into a while ago because i was interested whether bodies in water (and in general) were often found by dog walkers because they tended to walk in areas others possibly wouldn't, or whether dogs could pick up a scent. Again not an expert in any way, shape or form, but it did lead me to wonder whether in a popular dog walking area where it seems plenty of places for dogs to jump into the water would they find something- acknowledging it was bloody cold so perhaps wouldn't? Again, JMO and sorry if it's veering off topic a bit.

I agree we might not know the exact entry point, but the police seemed to focus on that area specifically, and the items found there suggests it is. However the entry point could have of course been elsewhere, but it makes it even more strange if so. Maybe not strange, just confusing as to why her items are there if the entry point was elsewhere. It would make more sense for the entry point to be there so I wonder what would be the cause for it to be further away. I did say before if there was a medical reason and she tried to walk out the gate to the path to get help for herself and then fell in around that area.

 

[kittythehare]

Yes I'm the same, not sure of the relevance but it still seems fairly strange. Usually in these cases the 'last sighting' on CCTV/cam is distributed isn't it, probably as it gives the best memory jog. It seemed to take a while for the home images to be released (and this wasn't via the police was it?) yet the police were very clear that paying attention to the clothing was very important; why not release an image then? Either they don't have one but they also haven't appealed for any, or they do and there are other reasons- JMO.

"It’s really important that the public pay heed to those very specific clothing descriptions please, because factual sightings of those items would be very useful to us."

Taken as a direct quote from: Police reveal what missing dog walker Nicola Bulley was wearing before she vanished (along with many other MSM outlets).

They would be very useful if they were washed up on a riverbank because their location would indicate where her body would be located if she has tragically died.

If they are found elsewhere it would mean something else.
They would be particularly useful if they contained DNA samples if foul play was expected.

 

[DazN]

"We took them home, Nicola had had a meeting with her boss in Garstang and she said can you stay a bit later because I have an important client coming in on Zoom. We said no problem and stayed. She had done her work and she was very upbeat about getting her mortgage sorted."

JMO but I took this to mean she had the meeting earlier that day and the Zoom call was the evening one?

 

[JeremyBentham]

I think that’s actually the earlier witness if you look at the police statement - the 8.47 witness was the one whose dog interacted with NBs

Source - Lancashire Constabulary - Missing Nicola Bulley - latest update

Ah yes. My bad. Will edit my post.

 

[Miss_French]

I'm not sure, and too add.. her life on social media seems very picture perfect. Which to me is always a sign somthings not quite right.

There's lots of people who post the happy side of life in social media. Doesn't mean there's anything seriously wrong in their life, mostly that they are promoting something and chasing likes. Look how many of these influencers and Love Island, ahem, 'stars' do a cryptic "I'm so sad about something", but with a face of perfect make-up and an artistic single tear. Do people want to see unwashed hair, a scraggy dressing gown and ugly crying? Because that would be me when I'm really upset. And if Nicola's Facebook links to her mortgage business, she wouldn't want to jeopardise the brand or her career.

 

[Shadowplayed]

Perhaps the ongoing river searches, including those now down towards the sea, are not focussed on finding a body but items of clothing. those that the Police have continuously described ? Items of clothing that, for whatever reason, are no longer on NB's body.

PF and his team have been asked to help locate anything from a body through to items of clothing, but the info that they are not privy to may be that the police do not expect to find a body.

 

[cottonweaver]

It's not an unreasonable take to me, though. People do go missing, and people do fall into rivers and come to harm. What's uniquely odd is for someone to become a missing person by falling into a river. This has all happened in, near enough, plain sight.

It seems to me to be completely correct for the police to have focused on the river search. It's where her stuff was found, it's where her dog was waiting for her. While it can be argued that an attack was possible, there isn't a shred of evidence (AFAIAA) that there was one.

Whether this was by accident or by someone's design, the baffling thing here is surely not that she has unexpectedly come to harm, but that she has vanished without trace.

Agree with much of that but isn't there almost a mental block.We keep hearing of wtte of ' she vanished into thin air'

Maybe it's cause we are visual animals that we just can't conceive of the reality of millions of cubic metres of constantly moving murky water & unseen obstacles underwater? So we think, if we can't physically see something it means it cannot be there ( absence of evidence vs evidence of absence)

or another scenario
If this vanishing had happened at the edge of a huge mountain forest covering a large surface area, I wonder if people would be more wtte of ' she's obviously somewhere in that forest')

Anyway..... big takeaway for me from the latest update was the comments on the complexity of the river.

 

[Mycroft42]

And if Nicola's Facebook links to her mortgage business, she wouldn't want to jeopardise the brand or her career.

She has her own personal FB page and a separate one for her work - Nikki Bulley - Mortgage Advisor Log in or sign up to view

 

[hedgetog]

I agree we might not know the exact entry point, but the police seemed to focus on that area specifically, and the items found there suggests it is. However the entry point could have of course been elsewhere, but it makes it even more strange if so. Maybe not strange, just confusing as to why her items are there if the entry point was elsewhere. It would make more sense for the entry point to be there so I wonder what would be the cause for it to be further away. I did say before if there was a medical reason and she tried to walk out the gate to the path to get help for herself and then fell in around that area.

Yes I agree it's certainly the most logical, just theorising really that the added complexity of an entry point 10 minutes walk potentially either side of the bench (or further as no evidence NB was actually ever there herself) makes it even more challenging for them but also means potentially could take longer to locate than seems logical. Again JMO, and acknowledging may not be in the water at all. The language from the presser yesterday I also found interesting:

"That does not mean… that Nicola has not been in the river."

Nicola Bulley latest updates as huge search for missing mum continues

Suggests that they're also exploring the possibility that she was in the river and either out to sea (as says river rather than water in general) or managed to get out but ultimately still was overcome? MOO.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

Yes I know but I was responding to a poster who had said she thinks they are looking to see if NB willingly left that exit at 9.10-9.15am. That wouldn’t fit with the times the police have given for her phone being at the bench at 9.20am unless foul play involved. IMO.

Would be maybe useful timing for anyone walking up to meet NB

 

[hedgetog]

It's actually quite hard to stop your dog when it's off the lead from following you around. It may figure you're the pack leader and you're going somewhere, so this must be walkies, so obviously it feels invited, so it's coming with you. As a kid I used to get the Tube to school, and the dog we then owned had to be kept inside when I set off. If he managed to slip out, he would follow me to the Tube station and would try to board the train. You couldn't abandon him at the Tube station, because he'd then hang around waiting to be walked home. He knew the way, he just expected to be accompanied.

All dogs aren't the same of course but I struggle to see how NB could persuade her dog to stay put in one place while she went away to another and didn't return. At some point the dog would follow her to see where she was. Probably (IMO) that's what it did do.

I was more thinking of other dogs in the area in the following days, willow and her behaviour has been discussed a lot already hasn't it.

 

[GTB72]

"We took them home, Nicola had had a meeting with her boss in Garstang and she said can you stay a bit later because I have an important client coming in on Zoom. We said no problem and stayed. She had done her work and she was very upbeat about getting her mortgage sorted."

JMO but I took this to mean she had the meeting earlier that day and the Zoom call was the evening one?

The meeting was the day before.

 

[kittythehare]

Nicola Bulley: Friend unhappy with search area 'tourists'

A friend of missing Nicola Bulley says people have been turning up to "do social media things".

www.bbc.com

 

[Just-a-random-girl]

Actually, that info was further down that link, comment by her dad:

"We took them home, Nicola had had a meeting with her boss in Garstang and she said can you stay a bit later because I have an important client coming in on Zoom. We said no problem and stayed. She had done her work and she was very upbeat about getting her mortgage sorted."

It wasn't far for NB to travel to a meeting if it was in person.

NB's work situation does seem very significant to me. She appears to work for a relatively large organisation with many other remote workers so a face-to-face meeting the day before with the owner, especially on an evening and when the owner travelled a fair distance to her, suggests importance.

And then we have the disappearance occurring at the exact time as a conference call from the same organisation.

While it is reported she had landed a new client this could have been after a period of work pressure, targets etc.

In general, problems with work can materialise in many different ways. It would not explain what happened, but that whatever it was could very feasibly be linked to her professional life in some way. And this also would not rule in or rule out a third party.

 

[JeremyBentham]

Agree with much of that but isn't there almost a mental block.We keep hearing of wtte of ' she vanished into thin air'

Maybe it's cause we are visual animals that we just can't conceive of the reality of millions of cubic metres of constantly moving murky water & unseen obstacles underwater? So we think, if we can't physically see something it means it cannot be there ( absence of evidence vs evidence of absence)

or another scenario
If this vanishing had happened at the edge of a huge mountain forest covering a large surface area, I wonder if people would be more wtte of ' she's obviously somewhere in that forest')

Anyway..... big takeaway for me from the latest update was the comments on the complexity of the river.

I think there is an element of this, for me anyway. I know rivers can be deep, tricky and hold all sorts of unknowns. But in my mind I just think with today's technology, expertise and how quickly they were in the water I expect something to have been found. It just baffles me that there hasn't.

 

[I wonder]

I'm not sure, and too add.. her life on social media seems very picture perfect. Which to me is always a sign somthings not quite right.

Everyone posts positive things on social media. Why would someone post photos of a child who's weed themselves, filmed an argument, dropped a glass, had an upset stomach, telling kids off for scribbling on the walls etc etc?

Her FB account, to me, shows a lovely and happy family, who have lots of family time and enjoy outings, Halloween, birthdays, Christmas etc and holidays, interspersed with photos of Nicola and Paul, walking the dog and dressed up for events.

There's a huge emphasis on the children, they look like they had a lovely life, until this.

 

[Lady Stoddart-West]

^^^100% this ^^^

IMO it’s because they expect to find an item of clothing downstream that will point to a trajectory/give an example of where to search, more of a pinpoint.

<modsnip - no link from an approved source> This is confusing everyone, but what can they do? The danger might be in short term they look incompetent. I feel Nicola would be astonished this has had so much traction.

They would not let the scene become a tourist attraction if they seriously considered any real danger to the public.

 

[Miss_French]

They haven't. This is the transcript, and the word sensitive is not used once.

UK - Nicola Bulley, St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 27, 2023 *MEDIA, MAPS, & TIMELINES - NO DISCUSSION*

www.websleuths.com

They've simply said that they haven't released all information, which is absolutely standard for any enquiry.

Thanks! Not read every comment, but a lot of posters on here were bolding 'sensitivities' as though it was an actual quote.

 

[suzyjackson]

Missing mum texted her friend a significant message minutes before going missing

Mum-of-two Nicola Bulley, 45, disappeared while walking her springer spaniel along a river towpath in St Michaels on Wyre, Lancashire, after dropping her daughters at school

www.mirror.co.uk

My apologies, THIS, is the article that supports my earlier post.

Her father says Nicola had just sorted HER mortgage and was pleased to have done so, additionally she had been working hard on a client negotiation. Presumably then, a ‘remortgage’?

I think a malevolent perp is very unlikely as the police have clearly said. St Riley & team would NOT have the public traipsing freely & endanger the public, plus. The police have a clear context they have to sensitivity share when timing is ‘right’ as was said yesterday.

I dont think he means her as in belonging to Nicola, I think he means her as in the mortgage she was working on fora a.client

No one expects their every word to be forensically dissected, it's just the way people speak
JMO

 

[Firstsnow4]

Nicola Bulley: Friend unhappy with search area 'tourists'

A friend of missing Nicola Bulley says people have been turning up to "do social media things".

www.bbc.com

That’s terrible