Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #8

[Mollie123]

Timeline of events 7 days after dog walker Nicola Bulley mysteriously vanished

The mortgage adviser Nicola Bulley, 45, had dropped her two young girls off at school before taking her brown spaniel Willow for a walk along the River Wyre in the village of St Michael's, Lancashire

www.mirror.co.uk

Thank you @kittythehare

 

[kittythehare]

Any large-diameter extraction pipes on this part of the river?

Worth a look for sure.

 

[philthesaddler]

Still more likely an abduction that a fatal accident IMO.

I keep coming back to the lack of independent witnesses between 9:10 and the arrival of the police.

I wonder if the police have witnesses who saw nothing - they were beside the river around that time but didn’t see the dog. It’s quite possible, and it doesn’t make or break any theories, but I’d be surprised if no one else walked along that wall between 9:10 and ~10am.

Does no one else find it a bit strange?

People on here talk (and the police) seem to think the 9:10-9:20am period is crucial - but surely the period is longer than that? People seem to be dismissing other possibilities because of there only being 10mins for a would-be abductor to abduct her.

<modsnip - off limits>

 

[ayrshireguy]

Worth a look for sure.

St Micheal's was hit by devastating floods in recent years. New flood defences and possible pipe networks.

 

[Mr X]

and would it be possible for a body to become lodged and stuck in the weir?

Quite a lot of weirs have a recirculating effect which traps objects including corpses, underneath the actual waterfall.

There was a recent MAIB (Marine Accidents Investigation Board) report about some fatalities on paddle boards somewhere in Wales. At least one of the drownings was caused by the person becoming trapped in the endless cycle of the weir.

There is a technical word for it I have forgotten.

I'm entirely sure the search teams will have looked there as it is a well known phenomenon with some weirs.

The term is "Hydraulic towback". LE will definitely have checked the weir by now if it is subject to this phenomenon.

 

[JeremyBentham]

and would it be possible for a body to become lodged and stuck in the weir?

It is quite likely, but depends on the Weir.

Not sure if this is okay to post, but this explains some of the dangers - source

• Never enter a watercourse upstream of a weir, lock or fall even if you are a good swimmer. If the water traps you in a swirling, washing-machine type trap you may not be able to escape.
• Never play on or near a weir. They may look pretty, but under the surface the water is extremely strong and violent, and can trap you with no escape.

 

[kittythehare]

Still more likely an abduction that a fatal accident IMO.

I keep coming back to the lack of independent witnesses between 9:10 and the arrival of the police.

I wonder if the police have witnesses who saw nothing - they were beside the river around that time but didn’t see the dog. It’s quite possible, and it doesn’t make or break any theories, but I’d be surprised if no one else walked along that wall between 9:10 and ~10am.

Does no one else find it a bit strange?

People on here talk (and the police) seem to think the 9:10-9:20am period is crucial - but surely the period is longer than that? People seem to be dismissing other possibilities because of there only being 10mins for a would-be abductor to abduct her.

<modsnip - off limits>

Speaking in a press conference on Tuesday, Supt Sally Riley said: "We would ask that people in the wider community, particularly on social media and online, do not speculate as to what may have happened to Nicola.
"We will not tolerate online abuse of anyone, including innocent witnesses, members of the family and friends, of local businesses, or of criminal damage or burglary."

Nicola Bulley: Friend unhappy with search area 'tourists'

A friend of missing Nicola Bulley says people have been turning up to "do social media things".

www.bbc.com

 

[Firstsnow4]

Yes I find that bit odd too:
"That does not mean… that Nicola has not been in the river."
But I just thought they were saying along the lines of ‘just because evidence has shown so far that she didn’t go in the river doesn’t mean she didn’t’. I think the way they worded it just made it sound like it meant something else. IMO.

 

[suzyjackson]

Still more likely an abduction that a fatal accident IMO.

I keep coming back to the lack of independent witnesses between 9:10 and the arrival of the police.

I wonder if the police have witnesses who saw nothing - they were beside the river around that time but didn’t see the dog. It’s quite possible, and it doesn’t make or break any theories, but I’d be surprised if no one else walked along that wall between 9:10 and ~10am.

Does no one else find it a bit strange?

People on here talk (and the police) seem to think the 9:10-9:20am period is crucial - but surely the period is longer than that? People seem to be dismissing other possibilities because of there only being 10mins for a would-be abductor to abduct her.

<modsnip - off limits>

I dont think the lack of witnesses is strange, a river bank on a cold January morning isnt going to be bustling with passers by

<modsnip - quoted post was response were snipped>

JMO

 

[kittythehare]

St Micheal's was hit by devastating floods in recent years. New flood defences and possible pipe networks.

Try council minutes...

 

[Northernnights]

and would it be possible for a body to become lodged and stuck in the weir?

This is exactly what I'm thinking. It's the most plausible explanation to me based on no sightings in the river and no evidence of abduction etc. I think the reason no items of clothing have been found is that keys are zipped up in the gilet pocket and the gilet itself is fully zipped up as it was a cold morning and for that reason NB is still wearing it.

 

[Lindengracht]

Still more likely an abduction that a fatal accident IMO.

The police don't think so. In the latest presser superintendant Riley literally said, "... there is no criminal element yet identified, and we don't expect there to be in this inquiry". As reported by the Mail.

 

[Beginnersleuth]

Any large-diameter extraction pipes on this part of the river?

Worth a look for sure.

I saw Blay Brook tunnel/pipe mentioned on SM by a local but can’t find any evidence on google - better sleuther might be able to find it quicker?

 

[supersleuth123]

With regards to whether NB might have made it over the weir, and therefore potentially out to sea, I wanted to have a look at what the tide was doing at the relevant time. According to the tide times, the tide at Fleetwood (which is the end of the estuary where the Wyre meets the sea) was at its lowest almost exactly at the time NB is feared to have entered the water up at St Michaels.

Had she crossed the weir, the water on the other side will therefore have been at it's lowest (which does reduce, but not eliminate) the chance that NB will have been able to have had a straight/fast route out to sea because that (tidal) stretch of the river does get very low at low tide with plenty of mud flats etc.

More importantly I think though is that if the tide was at its lowest at Fleetwood at around 9.30am on the Friday 27th, this means that it will have been coming IN for most of the duration of the day (up until its high again at 3.30pm). In other words, well into the search operation, the tide was coming in at all points beyond the weir.

I live by the Thames in London (admittedly a much bigger river), but when the tide is coming in, tidal rivers effectively flow in the opposite direction - sometimes the effect is so large you can even see it on bouys or anchored boats. All this to say, if NB was past the weir, IMO, it is exceptionally unlikely that she would have gone very far, at least until the turn of the tide again at 3.30pm that evening.

Edited to add that this is all in my opinion.

 

[I wonder]

Is it possible that a body could have made it over the weir into the tidal part and no longer in the river itself and be out in the open sea by now?

The main focus has always been the river, but despite numerous searches around the area of the bench, wier and large swathes of the river, they have neither found Nicola nor apparently any evidence of her being in the river.

The possibility of her travelling down the river, to the sea, therefore has to be considered. It's a tidal river, so there's at least the possibility that there was sufficient momentum for Nicola to travel, in a short space of time to the sea.

Obviously that would potentially be catastrophic in terms of the likelihood of her being found. But it's not impossible. It isn't unknown for the sea to give people back.

But who knows? I don't believe the entire relevant parts of the river has been searched, so there's still the possibility of finding her in the river. I think it's something like 13 miles to the sea. At the sea end it joins another river, the River Brock, which could also complicate things.

JMO MOO

 

[Truthfinder01]

Ex head of the met. Also known forthe search of Kevin Parle.

Interesting

 

[cottonweaver]

Still more likely an abduction that a fatal accident IMO.

I keep coming back to the lack of independent witnesses between 9:10 and the arrival of the police.

I wonder if the police have witnesses who saw nothing - they were beside the river around that time but didn’t see the dog. It’s quite possible, and it doesn’t make or break any theories, but I’d be surprised if no one else walked along that wall between 9:10 and ~10am.

Does no one else find it a bit strange?

People on here talk (and the police) seem to think the 9:10-9:20am period is crucial - but surely the period is longer than that? People seem to be dismissing other possibilities because of there only being 10mins for a would-be abductor to abduct her.

<modsnip - off limits>

Minutes or exit points?

LE only have one exit route left - path onto Garstang Road & to confirm NB hasn't left the area via that route LE have to confirm ( Hence writing to 700 vehicle users in the hope any of who have dash cam can confirm /deny that exit route as an option. Link below where LP explain that. )

LE are viewing the witnesses as 'independent witnesses'
<modsnip - off limits>

Lancashire Constabulary - Missing Nicola Bulley - latest update

The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary

lancashire.police.uk

 

[kittythehare]

I saw Blay Brook tunnel/pipe mentioned on SM by a local but can’t find any evidence on google - better sleuther might be able to find it quicker?

Search St michael Council new drainage plans

 

[DFR3217]

Yes I find that bit odd too:
"That does not mean… that Nicola has not been in the river."
But I just thought they were saying along the lines of ‘just because evidence has shown so far that she didn’t go in the river doesn’t mean she didn’t’. I think the way they worded it just made it sound like it meant something else. IMO.

When I was watching I took that to be a rather pedantic statement implying that she had been in the river and may now be in the sea, rather than got out of the river some other way. I think Sally Riley used this phrase at least twice and the first time included a clarification. This is from memory.

 

[philthesaddler]

Still more likely an abduction that a fatal accident IMO.

I keep coming back to the lack of independent witnesses between 9:10 and the arrival of the police.

I wonder if the police have witnesses who saw nothing - they were beside the river around that time but didn’t see the dog. It’s quite possible, and it doesn’t make or break any theories, but I’d be surprised if no one else walked along that wall between 9:10 and ~10am.

Does no one else find it a bit strange?

People on here talk (and the police) seem to think the 9:10-9:20am period is crucial - but surely the period is longer than that? People seem to be dismissing other possibilities because of there only being 10mins for a would-be abductor to abduct her.

<modsnip - off limits>

I dont think the lack of witnesses is strange, a river bank on a cold January morning isnt going to be bustling with passers by

<modsnip - quoted post and response were snipped>

JMO

it’s a popular dog walking route - areas like that near where I live have people passing through every few minutes.

I find the behaviour of finding a dog alone, near an abandoned phone and harness/leash very odd. I think most would hang around or look around for the owner to ensure the dogs safety - especially if they were a local and/or recognised the dog. Most certainly wouldn’t merrily walk off.

Add in the fact that this is the person to find the leash/harness and phone - and it all seems very odd IMO. <modsnip - off limits>