Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[EyeSpyU]

I agree and I think the key missing piece is evidence of a slip or fall on the bank of the river. Even if she was on the edge and toppled over, you would expect footprints or signs of walking to be evident as it would not be an area with heavy footfall.

As such, and given it is now accepted an exit from the field unseen was possible, this means a third party involvement is just as plausible. To get up from the bench without taking your phone would require something urgent. Perhaps the dog was scrapping with a larger dog, someone was stealing the dog or she saw/heard someone in distress. If she ran off in the direction of the exit with no CCTV, it seems entirely plausible that an incident occurred and she then left the field in that 10 minute timeframe without anyone seeing. The puzzle then is the dog, it would have to have been distracted during the incident itself and returned to the bench expecting to find NB there

It would be hard to see evidence of footfall there as it’s full of crisscrossed overgrowth, dried weeds, straw, leaves etc…

I can’t envisage NB jumping up without her phone, leaving Willow and running off had an abductor approached her. Besides, Willow would have followed her. What’s more, dogs sense when their owner is in danger and become aggressive to whoever is a threat - even before they’ve caused harm. I’ve witnessed it myself. Dogs are hugely tuned into danger and incredibly protective of their owners.

 

[PeggyHenry]

oops, thought I had read everything!!! sorry.

Just looking a video on a news report online of the bench .. it strikes me that sitting on the bench engrossed in a phone call etc leaves you highly vulnerable. The bench faces the river and it would be so easy to be attacked from the rest of the bench. I am tending to think she could have been sitting here at the end of her walk… waiting for the Teams meet to finish.. just letting Willow mooch around .. when something goes wrong

 

[cottonweaver]

Well imo that is the problem with this case ruling out possibilities right away. Again I'm staggered people dont see it possible for someone to abduct a woman on her own with a gun or knife. With no witnesses around and plenty of exits available. I wouldn't find it feasible a woman on a cruise ship with her family and lots of witnesses could be taken in daylight but that happened. I could bring up thousands more cases of abducted women that sound crazy and not possible but they happened

they haven't ruled out anything. they keep repeating that.
they just don't have any evidence of anything criminal, yet

 

[Casseus]

That is the story but is it also safe to say that there is -nothing- in there at all? What happens if there is a piece of water logged wood? I just spotted a piece of waterlogged wood beside my boat the other day after some recent floods. It wasn't there before. Its about 9ft long and about 1ft diameter. Big thing. How would someone with a sonar deal with this?

Do they remove everything they see? If not them IMO this search is subject to failure in complex environments.

What is the underwater technology being used in hunt for missing Nicola Bulley?

A private team of divers led by forensics expert Peter Faulding has been drafted in to widen the search for missing Nicola Bulley

www.independent.co.uk

He explained that he sits looking at the screen and can tell certain objects as they are picked up by the sonar, most objects can be identified quite easily, he reported there is someone working in the water below him and he will tell them exactly where to go to move “obstacles” aside and get a better look. I don’t recall reading they remove them from the water just move them out of the way.

 

[EyeSpyU]

We are looking at the dog scenario with the benefit of hindsight. One doesn't automatically presume an owner is missing/in trouble without signs as such. For instance, over Christmas I was staying at my Mums house and suddenly a dog appeared in the garden. I couldn't get outside to check its collar as my mother's dog was going crazy. I took a photo and posted on the local community page. I never heard anything and have no idea whose dog it was. Some on here may say that wasn't great of me, but that was the course of action I took at the time.
In all honesty, if a lot of us were walking that path and came across a loose dog and a phone on the bench, we might presume the owner was nearby. I definiId tely wouldn't tie it up! I might check the collar and phone the number on the tag, but that's because I'm au fait with a smartphone.

If as some people have suggested, this person was unimpressed with dogs off the lead, she might've tied up for this reason and nothing else. Bold move given she didn't know the dog.

MORE'S THE POINT .... how long was Nicola normally out for on her dog walks? At what point would PA have reported her missing? Was he expecting her home straight after?

 

[Firstsnow4]

Welcome!

That was discussed a little earlier, it could be possible (theoretically at least, I’m not poking that hornet’s nest as none of the experts seem to agree) that if NB had entered the river then her body could be out at sea or very nearly by now, and therefore not still in the river.

So basically they are just distinguishing the difference between the river and the sea? I.E she entered the river but has now left the river and is in the sea. IMO.

It would be interesting to know if they have checked cctv of other riverside premises further downstream - I know it’s highly unlikely anything would be seen but worth a try.

 

[themagiceye]

they haven't ruled out anything. they keep repeating that.
they just don't have any evidence of anything criminal, yet

That's actually a very good summary of the case.

 

[russeverton]

I find it very possible, but I've had it happen to me (attempted, luckily rescued) which is probably partly why. Also I was thinking about the probability of NB being grabbed when I was sitting down by the river this morning (I live by the River Dart). I watched a couple of women walking their dogs past at around 9.30 and both of them at different points went out of sight behind trees and bushes and I didn't see them again. Made me think how easy it would have been for a perpetrator.

Yes it's scary and thank god you escaped. Wasnt there a case near there also recently of a woman jogging in daylight and a man came from nowhere and grabbed her. Again thankfully she got away. These isolated walks are very dangerous I wish women would not do them alone

 

[steelo]

Would it also measure erratic movements if it remained on her wrist, either during a struggle with someone or her flayling around in water...either of which would show increased heart rate? And would it's data indicate the item being underwater, either still on her wrist or if it had been removed and thrown in?

I think the heart rate, if identified from the fitbit, would be absolutely crucial! A sudden change could explain a great deal, either up or down! Surely this is something that has been looked into!

 

[jackal67]

What if she's done a runner? The police can see she's planned to meet someone & start a new life elsewhere. Do they have to disclose this to the family? After all, isn't there a level of confidentiality that has to be maintained. Like if someone was to escape an abusive partner etc? (Not suggesting her partner was abusive).

They would disclose if they found her but would not disclose her location without her agreement. They would also want to see her face to face to confirm she was safe and well

 

[ayrshireguy]

They have one of if not the best sonar machines available. They can see sticks on a river bed, they have a team of divers on standby to check any area they see something that needs checking or to check areas they don’t see the sonar can see clear enough.

It is safe to say Nicola is not in the river, in the areas that SGI searched.

I doubt NB is or ever was in the river.

 

[Casseus]

They would disclose if they found her but would not disclose her location without her agreement. They would also want to see her face to face to confirm she was safe and well

They also wouldn’t be spending tens of thousands of taxpayers pounds searching a river if they knew she was somewhere planning her escape in the sun.

 

[Mirabel091]

Just been reading up on fitbits on trustedreviews.com and the more recent models (Fitbit sense 2) can measure your skin temperature. Also ECG, EDA scan for stress measurement, AFib detection and heart rate tracking.

If the police do have the data from the watch and Nicola owns a recent Fitbit, perhaps they can see a sudden and drastic change in her skin temperature and presumed that only entering cold water could cause such a drop.
They are also waterproof up to 50m.

Update- Also can measure blood oxygen saturation.

While we're at it some models have built-in GPS and can lock the screen on entering water. What it comes back to is that data would be on the device itself and would need to be synced via NB's phone for Fitbit to have it to provide to police.

 

[Cluella DeVille]

I think the heart rate, if identified from the fitbit, would be absolutely crucial! A sudden change could explain a great deal, either up or down! Surely this is something that has been looked into!

I would certainly hope it has. I would still like to know if the fitbit was taken off her wrist (either by herself or someone else) and thrown into water whether the data would register it being immersed or whether it would cease to record data if it was no longer on a person's wrist?

 

[Cranky]

It would certainly stop measuring heart beat and probably steps as well. I think this comes down to what is making the police so confident in their hypothesis, and what you've described would probably result in steps and heart stopping at the same time and that throws up various scenarios and I don't see them being so confident. However, let's say the data showed she took her last step at 9.20 and her (please let this not be the case) last breath at 9.30 then this points to her being in the water sadly. How she got there is anybodys guess though, I'm not buying the falling in for various reasons, I think she was assaulted by someone who may then have removed her somehow.

To know this the police would have to have the fitbit. They have not said that they have found anything belonging to NB. My fitbit is currently showing about 500 steps less than I have done because despite having the phone in my pocket and my fitbit on my wrist the two have not synced. The app will only show data that has been transmitted via blutooth from the device to my phone. The only person that has the actual number of steps that I have done just now is me because I can see my fitbit. If the fitbit could be tracked another way then LE wouldn't be looking for NB - they'd know her location by the position of the fitbit.

The next bit is JMO. A fitbit can track your walk but you have to put it into that mode as you start via the app at which time it would sync. It would also record the end of your walk but as LE have stated that they do not have fitbit info as mentioned previously, it's unlikely that NB used this function. It seems more likely that she preferred strava which she did have an account with and which is linked on the first page of each new thread.

 

[EyeSpyU]

We are looking at the dog scenario with the benefit of hindsight. One doesn't automatically presume an owner is missing/in trouble without signs as such. For instance, over Christmas I was staying at my Mums house and suddenly a dog appeared in the garden. I couldn't get outside to check its collar as my mother's dog was going crazy. I took a photo and posted on the local community page. I never heard anything and have no idea whose dog it was. Some on here may say that wasn't great of me, but that was the course of action I took at the time.
In all honesty, if a lot of us were walking that path and came across a loose dog and a phone on the bench, we might presume the owner was nearby. I definitely wouldn't tie it up! I might check the collar and phone the number on the tag, but that's because I'm au fait with a smartphone.

If as some people have suggested, this person was unimpressed with dogs off the lead, she might've tied up for this reason and nothing else. Bold move given she didn't know the dog.

MORE'S THE POINT .... how long was Nicola normally out for on her dog walks? At what point would PA have reported her missing? Was he expecting her home straight after?

Actually, I would tie a loose stray dog to a bench being that close to the river.

 

[EyeSpyU]

Speculation of course, but she could have had a brief conversation with someone (known or unknown to her) during her walk who suggested they meet over by the bench at 9.20 to continue their chat. She could have walked back to the bench area with Willow, the 'other' person getting there via an alternative route?

She was on a work call, though.

 

[steelo]

I would certainly hope it has. I would still like to know if the fitbit was taken off her wrist (either by herself or someone else) and thrown into water whether the data would register it being immersed or whether it would cease to record data if it was no longer on a person's wrist?

The fitbits I have owned have never recognised me being in water. I used to take my child swimming and it would record heartrate and assign a general activity to the period of increased heart rate but not identify any element of being in water.
As soon as its removed and not detecting a heart rate it would cease recording.

 

[Meeky]

Sky News are reporting that 2 police boats are in the sea at Morecambe Bay searching and will head up the mouth of the river on either side in their search for NB

 

[EyeSpyU]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed for insinuations against a person not named POI by LE and using unapproved sources>
If Willow was heard barking (and who knew it was her barking?), but if she was barking that heavily points her witnessing something happening to NB. Either her falling in the river and going under, or being abducted. I personally can’t envisage her being abducted in broad daylight being dragged/carried along open fields where they’d so easily be seen.