Found Deceased UT - Kayelyn Louder, 30, Murray, 27 September 2014

[ChuckMaureen]

I 'searched' the area via Google and Bing maps and located an empty lot only a few blocks from the Willows complex. In images captured in 2011, far back from the curb line is a commercial dumpster. In images captured in 2012, the same dumpster, same location. I do not know what that lot looks like today but if that dumpster is still there it should be checked:

 

[Hraefn]

No articles in MSM for 4+ days, no posts on the FB page for 5 days...where are you Kayelyn?! Is there anything in the news in the area that locals have seen? :/

 

[ChuckMaureen]

A good article, a small insight to what the family and friends are experiencing...

http://www.mormonwomen.com/2014/11/25/searching-for-kayelyn/

 

[FleaSpirit]

Sorry to be pushy about this but she was last seen within a few hundred feet of a creek that has cost quite a few lives. There are a lot of possibilities but who would reasonably question that the most likely scenario involves that creek? Fast water often has branches that will catch a person. If she fell in and was swept underwater against a submerged branch she would probably not have been able to get free.

An abductor is possible. Also possible she just felt too stressed and knew some place she could retreat for a while, an abandoned cabin or whatever.

But 90%+ at this time that the creek is where she is. All of the theories and ideas about other things lose weight until the most likely scenario is checked. From the video interview of her she looks like the kind of person who wants to save every last person, help everyone without really looking after herself first. Hopefully there is some good outcome. Still without new signs any effort should probably be first focused on the most likely place.

 

[ChuckMaureen]

Sorry to be pushy about this but she was last seen within a few hundred feet of a creek that has cost quite a few lives. There are a lot of possibilities but who would reasonably question that the most likely scenario involves that creek? Fast water often has branches that will catch a person. If she fell in and was swept underwater against a submerged branch she would probably not have been able to get free.

An abductor is possible. Also possible she just felt too stressed and knew some place she could retreat for a while, an abandoned cabin or whatever.

But 90%+ at this time that the creek is where she is. All of the theories and ideas about other things lose weight until the most likely scenario is checked. From the video interview of her she looks like the kind of person who wants to save every last person, help everyone without really looking after herself first. Hopefully there is some good outcome. Still without new signs any effort should probably be first focused on the most likely place.

LE searched the Little Cottonwood Creek weeks ago and it was noted a gate is installed in the creek near where the creek exits the condominium complex. If KL had entered the creek within the property she would not have been carried for very far. Other local bodies of water were searched, as well. I recall there also was an aerial search along the creek outside the property.

 

[FleaSpirit]

LE searched the Little Cottonwood Creek weeks ago and it was noted a gate is installed in the creek near where the creek exits the condominium complex.

I'm sorry but I am unable to find an article describing that search. Was it mentioned in the news? And the gate? A news article referring to the creek during a storm mentions a flow of 1000 cubic feet per second. Even at low water it would be a few hundred cubic feet. A creek with that volume would be of interest to certain sport types and it is unlikely it would be gated in such a way, especially downstream. Also such a gate would accumulate a lot of flotsam and jetsom.

 

[ChuckMaureen]

I'm sorry but I am unable to find an article describing that search. Was it mentioned in the news? And the gate? A news article referring to the creek during a storm mentions a flow of 1000 cubic feet per second. Even at low water it would be a few hundred cubic feet. A creek with that volume would be of interest to certain sport types and it is unlikely it would be gated in such a way, especially downstream. Also such a gate would accumulate a lot of flotsam and jetsom.

That info was obtained from family on the original 'find kayelyn' FB page.

 

[ChuckMaureen]

I'm sorry but I am unable to find an article describing that search. Was it mentioned in the news? And the gate? A news article referring to the creek during a storm mentions a flow of 1000 cubic feet per second. Even at low water it would be a few hundred cubic feet. A creek with that volume would be of interest to certain sport types and it is unlikely it would be gated in such a way, especially downstream. Also such a gate would accumulate a lot of flotsam and jetsom.

Little Cottonwood Creek: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Cottonwood_Creek

A link to the flow rates page for 9/27/2014 appears below. I also uploaded a capture of flow rates for the relevant time frame.

The peak flow rate for the entire day of 9/27/2014 occurred during the 6:00 PM half-hour interval: 301 CFS @ 2.94 feet Stage.

That is a somewhat significant rate, nearly three times LCC's average of 111 CFS but not even close to its maximum of 5,290 CFS.



http://www.pweng.slco.org/flood/str...9&EndYear=2014&gageno=290&SubmitButton=submit


If KL had ended up in LCC that evening LE / search teams would have found her by now.

 

[FleaSpirit]

The peak flow rate for the entire day of 9/27/2014 occurred during the 6:00 PM half-hour interval: 301 CFS @ 2.94 feet Stage.
That is a somewhat significant rate, nearly three times LCC's average of 111 CFS but not even close to its maximum of 5,290 CFS
...
If KL had ended up in LCC that evening LE / search teams would have found her by now.

I'm sorry, I was unable to find any reference to a serious search of the creek by anyone, googling her name in quotes and cottonwood creek in quotes, nor by reading the facebook page.

I did find this photo of the creek there taken by a searcher http://www.enjoygram.com/m/829885840979045239_31322985

The danger of a creek is from the mix of its flow rate and speed, not just its flow rate. A hundred foot wide ten foot deep river that flowed at 300 cfs would be almost stagnant but dangerous for its depth. A small creek like this though flowing at that rate is dangerous for its speed. It is 300 cfs, i.e., about 18,000 pounds of water per second, moving through a fairly small area.

A search of water like that is not just walking along the bank. Ideally it would be divers tethered to the bank and covering the entire creek considering the high water mark since disappearance.

I understand the reason for neglecting this part of the search but the counter argument is that no responsible investigator will fully pursue other possibilities, such as abduction, unless this step is taken.

 

[Elainera]

That info was obtained from family on the original 'find kayelyn' FB page.

Which means we should not consider it as reliable information. Not saying the family making wrong statements but they could be wrong or someone misunderstood something etc. As long as we don't have official statements by press or LE we don't really know what was searched and when, and how thorough.

And even if that creek was searched - it should be searched again imo! How often do we read here that missing persons are found not far from where they were last seen and in an area that had already been looked at. Just yesterday Sally Estabrook was found in thick brush only half a mile from where she had been seen last two months ago. Kayelyn disappeared two months ago too, time she is found.

 

[FleaSpirit]

Just yesterday Sally Estabrook was found in thick brush only half a mile from where she had been seen last two months ago. Kayelyn disappeared two months ago too, time she is found.

Mindboggling that an elderly woman with alzheimers disappears and no one is able to organize a competent search.

For future reference.
Draw a grid on a map.
Assemble some people who can use a gps and are comfortable in brush.
Put the two most trained people on the outside and number 3 in the middle.
Make sure people are never more than 20 feet apart.
Have a few extra people wandering the area randomly in each direction listening and talking.

The unusual part is that the lady was the relative of someone famous. Even if there were not enough searchers he could have paid people.

 

[IHAVENOCLUE]

Mindboggling that an elderly woman with alzheimers disappears and no one is able to organize a competent search.

For future reference.
Draw a grid on a map.
Assemble some people who can use a gps and are comfortable in brush.
Put the two most trained people on the outside and number 3 in the middle.
Make sure people are never more than 20 feet apart.
Have a few extra people wandering the area randomly in each direction listening and talking.

The unusual part is that the lady was the relative of someone famous. Even if there were not enough searchers he could have paid people.

Poor lady... :candle:

 

[ChuckMaureen]

BBM

Which means we should not consider it as reliable information. Not saying the family making wrong statements but they could be wrong or someone misunderstood something etc. As long as we don't have official statements by press or LE we don't really know what was searched and when, and how thorough.

And even if that creek was searched - it should be searched again imo! How often do we read here that missing persons are found not far from where they were last seen and in an area that had already been looked at. Just yesterday Sally Estabrook was found in thick brush only half a mile from where she had been seen last two months ago. Kayelyn disappeared two months ago too, time she is found.

Sourcing from FB is iffy, no doubt, but the people in this case who posted the comments on the *original* FB group page are family members who were accompanying a search team when LE searched the creek path through the Willows property and for an unknown distance outside of the property. They also indicated LE had explicitly searched the "emergency gate" installed in the creek where the creek exits the Willows property. And as noted in your post at least one other person posted a photo of the creek during their own search. Many other of KL's friends have assisted in that search. The fact this information has not come directly from LE or media does not negate the fact that the searches occurred, and although many of us realize much info posted on social media is worthless, in this case I selectively believe some of it is quite valid.

Details (what very little there was posted) of what / when was searched are no longer forthcoming and have not been for a while, to maintain integrity of the search grid and potential future LE necessity...which is typical procedure for many cases.

The creek path through the Willows property is easily accessible. The creek level through drier periods averages 1.something feet and can rise three times that during rainy periods. Some stretches of the creek bed are not flat, as is typical for high-flow streams. River rock and other natural debris settle unevenly along outer bank curves, of which there are a few. There are also a few bridges across the creek, with the underflows easily viewable / accessible. If KL were in the creek within the Willows property she would be visible. That is not to say she did not enter in to that creek. She somehow could have entered the creek outside the Willows property and ended up in the underground system.

 

[FleaSpirit]

L

BBM
She somehow could have entered the creek outside the Willows property and ended up in the underground system.

Fwiw anyone who has dived a bit knows why divers carry knives. It's not to fight off river monsters or great white sharks. It's because almost every accessible water in populated areas is strewn with 50 lb fishing line and similar hazards. It is unusual to snag a scuba bottle or a fin or something else on something underwater but it happens. It would be something kind of rare in a lake or ocean but in a fast creek with a lot of rocks that is stocked with trout you would probably get snagged on something underwater before too long. Aside from that is just the natural way streams accumulate stuff in storms. When water rises above the bank it washes a whole bunch of branches and other stuff into certain spots. If you go to those places where rivers deposit things sometimes you will find an assortment of debris. Considering it has been two months, even if a person did not want to thoroughly search the creek, it would be sensible to look at 'shortcuts' the creek takes during a storm, and brush along the sides of the creek where a storm might deposit something.

It all comes down to a) whether this scenario is likely. It is. And b) whether it is helpful to find out. Not my call.

I don't support pleasant fictions, no matter how well intentioned they are, but it isn't really my business.

I remember a story from readers digest I read maybe in the 70s. A guy was describing a job he had at a private eye firm. He said the boss took him into his office and said he was going to be assigned to one of their long term cases. It was an old lady looking for some person from the past for some reason. The private eye boss told his new employee basically "the guy she is looking for is long dead, but we comfort her by looking, and it pays okay etc".

 

[FleaSpirit]

Poor lady... :candle:

Also a quick comment about Alzheimer's that I'm sure will offend someone. People with Alzheimer's do not suffer as much as their caregivers probably. An old person trying to care for a spouse with dementia would be more stress than most people could handle. But the Alzheimer's person them self is not usually suffering that much. Don't have salt to put on scrambled eggs? Sugar will be fine for them. They really don't care. The lady probably did suffer from thirst and hunger while she was missing, and it was negligence that she was not found, but in her 70s she probably wasn't too uncomfortable.

There is the old story about the guy whose next door neighbor had Alzheimer's. Every time he saw his neighbor go outside he would go over to him and say "Do you have that $20 I loaned you yesterday"? Ultimately no harm done. The guy with Alzheimer's knows what $20 is worth without even thinking. The other thinks but doesn't know.

 

[sunflowerchick]

I'm confused. What does Alzheimer's have to do with this case?

 

[IHAVENOCLUE]

Also a quick comment about Alzheimer's that I'm sure will offend someone. People with Alzheimer's do not suffer as much as their caregivers probably. An old person trying to care for a spouse with dementia would be more stress than most people could handle. But the Alzheimer's person them self is not usually suffering that much. Don't have salt to put on scrambled eggs? Sugar will be fine for them. They really don't care. The lady probably did suffer from thirst and hunger while she was missing, and it was negligence that she was not found, but in her 70s she probably wasn't too uncomfortable.

There is the old story about the guy whose next door neighbor had Alzheimer's. Every time he saw his neighbor go outside he would go over to him and say "Do you have that $20 I loaned you yesterday"? Ultimately no harm done. The guy with Alzheimer's knows what $20 is worth without even thinking. The other thinks but doesn't know.

I respectfully disagree...

My father passed from complications of Alzheimer's ....

Fear, confusion, discomfort and depression... Among other issues... Was quite evident...

VERY evident....

Dad....:candle:

 

[margarita25]

I respectfully disagree...

My father passed from complications of Alzheimer's ....

Fear, confusion, discomfort and depression... Among other issues... Was quite evident...

VERY evident....

Dad....:candle:

:grouphug:


I'm so sorry Clue.


He was very lucky, and proud, to have you as a daughter, I'm sure.

 

[AudlyEnough]

I respectfully disagree...

My father passed from complications of Alzheimer's ....

Fear, confusion, discomfort and depression... Among other issues... Was quite evident...

VERY evident....

Dad....:candle:

Thank you, IHAVENOCLUE, that was my mother's experience with Alzheimer's, as well. I started to reply earlier, but grew upset and deleted. So, thanks again. <3

 

[FleaSpirit]

I respectfully disagree...

My father passed from complications of Alzheimer's ....

Fear, confusion, discomfort and depression... Among other issues... Was quite evident...

VERY evident....

Dad....:candle:

I didn't mean any disrespect, it was just my experience. One of my grandfathers had dementia for many years and a close family member has Alzheimer's now in an advanced stage.

The woman who was lost should have been found quickly. There is no excuse for not finding someone with Alzheimer's who wanders away.

But after the fact, in my opinion, she probably did not suffer that much. A person can dwell on either side of the issue, but I tend to see Alzheimer's as diminishing everything mental, including suffering. Awareness stays at 100%, but the mind not.