Hmm....I'm not having a lot of luck finding a MSM source of depth for Sarge Hubbard Pond, if that *is* the correct spot where the scent ended, but if it is, it seems fairly shallow quite a ways out based on these images of first responders practicing ice rescues in 2017. I will keep searching. (I know Lucian is only 4, thinking more along the lines of someone spotting him or his belongings. )
www.yakimaherald.com

Yakima firefighters jump in Sarg Hubbard pond to practice ice rescues (with video)
YAKIMA, Wash. – As temperatures hovered in the 20s Wednesday, some local firefighters decided it was a great time for a swim in the pond at Sarg Hubbard Park.