WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #1

[mysticrose]

Two things I wanted to mention. Saturday night (3/14) was cold. We live north of Olympia (which is always colder than the rest of this area) and it was 32 degrees here at 6 a.m. Hypothermia is a possibility. I am only slightly familiar with the Puget Sound area where the car was found, but I'm wondering if some of the homes there might be summer homes, thus making it a little more difficult to find help. Also, much of the land bordering the sound has a bank of some height. If they were following the edge of the water as the tide came in and were next to a high embankment, they would be trapped. The 6:09 a.m. tide on Sunday morning was 14.1 feet, a high tide.

That is what I was wondering as well, is if most of these homes are second homes only used in the summer months.....

 

[anyoldtime48]

I wondered why they keep referring to him as elderly...there are several DW's on the court website, one in Thurston County that has a record for theft & looks like assault...she did have a restraining order against ex husband. Jerry, also Robert Jerome Smiley.

Sounding like some sort of brain injury & let's hope that the kid's had enough scouting to make a difference.

His middle initial is H. Age 49 (confirmed from online voter records) and there is nothing in WA court records pointing to a DHW anywhere in Puget Sound area, where he appears to have lived his enter life. The one is Spokane is a different DHW and also the one in Chelan. In other words nothing there, clean as a whistle as far as having any kind of "record."

I doubt highly her ex or anyone she knew had a thing to do with this, unless they somehow magically found a woman very lost in Olympia who had no cell phone with her, and every place she was seen either in person and/or on video, she and her son were alone.

Still sticking with theory she had some sort of injury or medical (brain) issue, and surely hope they are hunkered down someplace safe waiting to be found.

LE has dogs out there and are searching. Word was from her soon-to-be stepdaughter that the dogs picked up something yesterday, but lost trail. No idea where that was. If they caught a scent from the van and were able to track off that beach, then I'd believe she drove it down to that beach herself, past signs indicating dead end or no outlet (someone in area please verify, but IIRC somebody posted early on it was very well marked).

If they lost that track any place a vehicle could have picked them up, then I'd be seriously, seriously concerned they did not leave the general area under their own steam.

Given she took every wrong turn possible, I personally can't discount that in the dark, and if she had indeed attempted to turn the can around on the beach, that she somehow didn't manage to walk INTO the water, instead of away from it. But you'd have to be really messed up in the head to keep walking into water.

Too many homes off the beach where she could have knocked on a door. Makes no sense they wouldn't have done so, but nothing much about her travel pattern and actions after she got off I-5 in Olympia makes a bit of sense.

 

[cj327]

Two things I wanted to mention. Saturday night (3/14) was cold. We live north of Olympia (which is always colder than the rest of this area) and it was 32 degrees here at 6 a.m. Hypothermia is a possibility. I am only slightly familiar with the Puget Sound area where the car was found, but I'm wondering if some of the homes there might be summer homes, thus making it a little more difficult to find help. Also, much of the land bordering the sound has a bank of some height. If they were following the edge of the water as the tide came in and were next to a high embankment, they would be trapped. The 6:09 a.m. tide on Sunday morning was 14.1 feet, a high tide.

Yeah, I was worried that the tide would go all the way up to the bluff...I know in some places it does not get that high, but it others it probably covers the whole beach. But, many of the houses have stairs or some way of getting down to the water, and I assume they could have gone up somewhere. Plus they had a number of hours before the tide came all the way in.

 

[raeann]

Two things I wanted to mention. Saturday night (3/14) was cold. We live north of Olympia (which is always colder than the rest of this area) and it was 32 degrees here at 6 a.m. Hypothermia is a possibility. I am only slightly familiar with the Puget Sound area where the car was found, but I'm wondering if some of the homes there might be summer homes, thus making it a little more difficult to find help. Also, much of the land bordering the sound has a bank of some height. If they were following the edge of the water as the tide came in and were next to a high embankment, they would be trapped. The 6:09 a.m. tide on Sunday morning was 14.1 feet, a high tide.

BBM

Well, at this point, one of the best hopes might be that she found a beautiful summer home, with a key under the flower pot and a stocked freezer and she is just holed up thinking things out. Of course, that also means that there may be a stocked liquor cabinet, too. But to be so concerned with making calls that evening to let others know where they were and that they were late but still ok.....it just doesn't seem logical that she would suddenly stop calling and checking in with family.

jmoo

 

[SuziQ]

Is there a possibility she and BF had gotten into a fight that day and she was leaving? Maybe it was over her relapse. Shantina was headed back home (town she was raised in and where family still lived)? She called him and he said hold up, I'll meet you in Olympia, I want to talk about this.

I don't see the possibility. While she was meandering around, he was already with her stepdad (about an hour away) from early evening till when the police were called. And from then on I would think he would have LE as an alibi.

 

[TakeNote]

it doesnt make since why she would make a right off of state street unto eastbay drive instead of making a left on a well lit with I-5 signs......when she took that right...it would have been very clear she was going the wrong way....away from town and away from the freeway....very clear

 

[Allyne]

Do we know what kind of stores she stopped at?

The Handy Pantry is a little corner market, actually quite out of the way from the freeway. She had to drive for several miles to get there. Residential neighborhood, away from any major stores, etc.

She must have gotten caught up in the turn only lane onto 101 and got lost trying to turn around and get back onto I-5. Traffic that time of day in Olympia is a mess, and I can see how she would get confused; If you're not in the left lanes, it's pretty much impossible to get over with so many 'considerate' drivers...Black Lake Blvd. isn't exactly an easy off & on exit...and is crammed at that time. She probably drove up figuring there would be another on ramp, and stopped there when she didn't find it.

 

[raeann]

Two things I wanted to mention. Saturday night (3/14) was cold. We live north of Olympia (which is always colder than the rest of this area) and it was 32 degrees here at 6 a.m. Hypothermia is a possibility. I am only slightly familiar with the Puget Sound area where the car was found, but I'm wondering if some of the homes there might be summer homes, thus making it a little more difficult to find help. Also, much of the land bordering the sound has a bank of some height. If they were following the edge of the water as the tide came in and were next to a high embankment, they would be trapped. The 6:09 a.m. tide on Sunday morning was 14.1 feet, a high tide.

Ok....so I am not familiar enough with the area to know how far up the beach that tide would go, but for locals....what would be the chance that they decided to just sleep in the car and wait to get help in the morning? Would the water have come up so high in the car that they would wake up and panic and just jump out into the water? AND if they did that, would it have been so deep or so strong of a current that they could not have just walked out of the water?

 

[TakeNote]

what street is handy pantry on?

 

[mysticrose]

Here is a good pic of where the van was:

Timeline map:

http://www.nwcn.com/news/washington...-in-finding-missing-mom-and-son-87825797.html

 

[dreamweaver]

Per my email GMA reminder:
tomorrow morning
sometime in the first hour of GMA
it will be about Shantina and her son.

Missing Mom The disappearance of a Washington state woman and her young son has baffled police. Reports indicate the woman got lost on Saturday, and the next day police found her minivan on a remote beach -- but with no sign of her or the boy. Watch the first hour for the latest on the search.

 

[cj327]

it doesnt make since why she would make a right off of state street unto eastbay drive instead of making a left on a well lit with I-5 signs......when she took that right...it would have been very clear she was going the wrong way....away from town and away from the freeway....very clear

Exactly. The picture I get overall is that her driving ability did not match her current condition. The Williams (the "elderly" pizza couple) did not describe her as intoxicated, and she must have sounded relatively sober during her phone conversation from their house. However, she was simply driving all over town (and we only know about some of the stops, she probably made many more). And she made some really crazy mistakes, like driving away from all the city lights, further and further up the peninsula until she got to a beach. And turning right on Boston Harbor Rd after leaving the Williams' house.

For a while I thought that she was purposefully making these driving mistakes because she did not want to leave town for some reason, but she asked for directions....so why not follow them? Unless the Williams' gave her really bad directions...

Also, if she was simply wanting to turn her car around, why not choose a paved driveway (there were lots of them near the dirt road) instead of that tiny dirt road going down to the water. She must have really been out of it to choose that dirt road.

 

[Texas Mist]

I wonder if she's nite blind...a little or a lot.

Between being confused & possibly not seeing well, it would be easy to miss signs or miss a turn onto a road because she didn't see them.

 

[TakeNote]

I wonder if she's nite blind...a little or a lot.

Between being confused & possibly not seeing well, it would be easy to miss signs or miss a turn onto a road because she didn't see them.

if she left the diner...traveled down martin way which turns into state street....she would have come to a stop light....take a left...I-5.....lit streets, fast food places, gas stations...etc....but she took a right onto eastbay drive leaving town....eastbay drive follows the bay on the left side...some apartments and nice homes on the right....very clear you are leaving town ....no gas stations, no mini marts....nothing but water and trees....it gets greener and greener...more remote by the second.....very very clear you were going the wrong way....and easy to be able to turn around and head back into town....

seems to me.....she went the wrong way because she wanted to for some reason....

 

[paris_paris]

Ok....so I am not familiar enough with the area to know how far up the beach that tide would go, but for locals....what would be the chance that they decided to just sleep in the car and wait to get help in the morning? Would the water have come up so high in the car that they would wake up and panic and just jump out into the water? AND if they did that, would it have been so deep or so strong of a current that they could not have just walked out of the water?

That's a really good thought. High tide was around 6:00 a.m.

Tired and frustrated from being lost, she may have just decided to sleep for awhile, not thinking about the tide coming in.

 

[mysticrose]

Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Last updated 9:31 a.m. PT

Trail of missing Silverdale woman went cold Saturday night in Olympia

Mealy said Smiley's fiance, Robb Simmons has been "extremely cooperative" and has not been identified as a suspect.

"The past 36 hours have been nerve racking, and full of fear pain and sorrow," Simmons wrote on his Web site. "I just want my Fiancé’ and Azriel back home . I want to marry her, and spend the rest of my days by her side."

Smiley's wallet was found in the van, but her purse is missing. Mealy said the wallet contained Smiley's one and only known credit card, cash and her driver's license. Simmons told Mealy that Smiley normally takes an overnight bag on similar trips, but was unsure if she took one this time. No extra clothes or bags were found in the car

..............................................................................................

He said the area in which Smiley disappeared is rural but in a wealthy neighborhood with houses overlooking the water. He said the roads, including the one near where the van was found, are narrow and dark.

http://www.seattlepi.com/sound/416825_sound87673977.html

 

[cj327]

That's a really good thought. High tide was around 6:00 a.m.

Tired and frustrated from being lost, she may have just decided to sleep for awhile, not thinking about the tide coming in.

That is certainly a possibility. From where the van was, I think they could have walked to shore. There is a tidal current there, but it is not *that* strong if you are only wading. If you were swimming any distance it could be a problem. From the photos I have seen, the van may have been submerged, but I really don't know.

 

[TakeNote]

Here is a good pic of where the van was:

Timeline map:

http://www.nwcn.com/news/washington...-in-finding-missing-mom-and-son-87825797.html

i have a feeling she was trying to get out somewhere remote....if you look at the map, the handy pantry is on the west bay side of the bay....you can not follow that out very far to a remote area.....but if you go to the other side of the bay....on eastbay drive.... you can follow that out ....way out....where she ended up.....look at the times as well.....going from west bay drive thru downtown olympia doesnt take more then 5 mins or less....

 

[Texas Mist]

NG discussing this case...Robb is on...saying search is called off & his daughter is upset.

Dr. Perper on....talked about diff. ways to ID bodies.

NG screaming the little boy didn't have an alcohol problem to a TH guest (sorry- missed the name)

 

[pufnstuf]

A Thurston County dive team dropped a tripod in the water Tuesday with a sonar device attached to it. The device will scan the bottom of Dana Passage where Smiley’s van was found on Sunday.

"It takes a 360 degree picture basically. A sonar image -- we're mapping the bottom of the Sound," said Greg Elwin of the Thurston County Sheriff’s Office.

Detectives also obtained a warrant to search and obtain fingerprints from the van driven by Smiley.

Inside the van, investigators found children's coloring books, car keys and miscellaneous items, but nothing that can direct them to the whereabouts of Smiley and her son.

It also appears the water went no higher than the top of the seats.

Despite video surveillance in stores that shows Smiley and her son moving through Olympia before they vanished and an extensive search on the ground and the water -- so far, there is no sign of them.

"It's completely baffling. This is just one element of it, the possibility that these people are in the water. There are so many theories as to what happened," Elwin said.

http://www.kirotv.com/news/22859850/detail.html